Earthquake risk to industry in Istanbul and its management

Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.     

Earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul museums

Considering the number of endangered museums in Istanbul and the size of their collections, assessing and mitigating the earthquake risk is an immense task by any standard. This paper provides a status report on the current earthquake risk mitigation efforts taken by the museums in Turkey. It summarizes several projects that have been carried out over the past few years to protect museums and its collections from earthquake damage and defines future actions that would mitigate earthquake risks associated with museum buildings and their contents.     

Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance

As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e     

地震灾害脆弱性分析--以河北省张北-尚义地震灾害为例

河北省位于环太平洋地震带,是我国地震灾害多发,灾害死伤人数最多,损失最重的省份。地震灾害的伤亡和损失不仅与地震强度有关,而且与人类和社会经济财产的脆弱性有关。通过对张北－尚义地震灾害脆弱性的分析,指出理解和减轻地震灾害的关键在于减轻镶嵌于日常生活中的地震灾害脆弱性。在目前人类尚不能准确预报、控制和改变地震过程的情况下,通过提高对地震灾害的认识,调整日常生活和生产中与震害有关的各项活动,将脆弱性降到     

Post-disaster assessment of hazard mitigation for small and medium-magnitude debris flow disasters in Bali,Indonesia and Jimani,Dominican Republic

This article explores whether past exposure to debris flow disasters with a human dimension (e.g. caused in part by deforestation) results in adaptive hazard mitigation and improved environmental and resource management practices in affected areas. When guiding hazard mitigation practice, the ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ approach views mitigation as a multi-dimensional experiment, with the associated need for post-experiment monitoring, evaluation, learning and adjustment, and attention paid to multiple scales (Bogardi 2004). This article explores how the concept of ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ has emerged, linking this ‘adaptive management’ used increasingly in resource and environmental management. Two case studies of disasters linked to human-induced environmental change are examined, and the mitigation responses of local communities, NGOs and Government agencies are documented. Data sources include secondary data (journal articles, web-based disaster reports and grey literature) on each disaster, key informant interviews (n = 8) and direct observation over the 2005–2006 period of post-disaster mitigation actions implemented after each disaster. The research indicates that in both case studies, a limited range of hazard mitigation actions was employed, including both structural and non-structural approaches. However, the research also found that causal factors involving human-induced environmental change (e.g. deforestation) were not addressed, and overall, the hazard mitigation strategies adopted lacked monitoring, learning and adjustment. In both case studies, responses to disaster were judged to be examples of ‘trial and error’ adaptation, rather than either ‘passive’ or ‘active’ adaptation.

泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用

泥石流是一种突发性山地灾害,至今尚缺乏准确有效的预报方法。减灾工程也只能对一定规模的泥石流起到防御作用。泥石流危险性分区在泥石流减灾中具有重要作用。以泥石流运动数值模拟为基础,以数值模拟获得的流速和流深等参量为分区指标的危险性分区是泥石流危险性分区研究的重点和发展方向。其中,泥石流危险性动量和动能分区充分反映了泥石流的破坏能力,可以提供更为精确的定量化的分区结果。该类分区方法在城镇等有重要危害对象的泥石流减灾中具有广泛的应用。不仅可以应用于泥石流危险区和安全区的划定、泥石流灾害预估、泥石流临灾预案制定、泥石流抢险救灾方案制定和泥石流灾情评估等,还可以应用到山区土地利用规划、山区城镇建设规划和财产保险评估等领域,并起到防灾和减灾的作用。     

A comparison of selected global disaster risk assessment results

We compare country risk rankings derived from two recently published global disaster risk analyses. One set of country rankings is based on the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) developed by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Division of Early Warning and Assessment Global Resource Information Database project under a contract to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The other is based on an index of disaster mortality risk developed by the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project implemented by Columbia University, the World Bank and associated partners. We convert data from these sources into two comparable indexes of disaster mortality risk and rank countries according to the resulting values for a set of natural hazards common to both studies. The country rankings are moderately correlated, ranging from .41 to .56 for individual hazards to .31 for multi-hazard mortality risks. We identify the top 25 countries according to the mortality risk values we recomputed from each study’s results to show the degree to which countries are highly ranked in common. The numbers of countries common to both lists for individual hazards range from 7 to 16 out of 25. The correspondence among the top 25 ranked countries is lowest for earthquakes and floods. Only 6 out of 25 countries are common to both lists in the multi-hazard case. We suggest that while the convergence in the results for some hazards is encouraging, more work is needed to improve data and methods, particularly with respect to assessing the role of vulnerability in the creation of risk and the calculation of multi-hazard risks. The views expressed are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of SM2 Consulting Multi-Hazards and Risk Holistic Solutions or the United Nations Development Program.     

灌溉诱发型滑坡风险控制关键技术

长期灌溉引起地下水位上升诱发滑坡发生是灌溉诱发型滑坡的基本特征,有效控制地下水位是灌溉诱发型滑坡风险管理的根本措施.通过灌溉量控制、竖向混合孔疏排水、水平疏排水3种排水措施,可以实现灌溉诱发型滑坡的风险控制.采用数值模拟的手段,计算了不同灌溉量下地下水动力场及其对应的台塬斜坡稳定性,模拟了不同布井方式下的竖向混合井疏排地下水的效果,结果表明,灌溉量控制在350×10 4m3/a以下可实现滑坡风险控制,竖向混合排水井间距为40m时可提高单体斜坡的稳定性.统筹考虑各种因素,提出了以控制灌溉量为主,辅以竖向混合孔排水和水平排水的黑方台灌区滑坡的风险控制措施.     

Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey

Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council (ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic hazard for Turkey.     

徐州市地质灾害防灾减灾方法研究

以徐州市地质灾害详细调查资料为依据,总结了徐州市地质灾害的主要类型,归纳分析了徐州市地质灾害形成的地质环境条件、诱发因素、发育现状及造成的损失。根据近年来省内外尤其是徐州市地质灾害调查评价和邳州石膏矿区地面塌陷现状及预防措施的建议,结合徐州市地质灾害隐患的具体特点,提出了加强地质灾害防治的有关制度建设、宣传培训工作、科学部署地质灾害防治、监测工程、强化建设项目的地质灾害危险性评估等地质灾害防灾减灾措施。     

城市化防震减灾经济性研究

本文通过对东南沿海地震背景和地震破坏性经济损失,结合国内外城市化进程中防震减灾经济性对比研究,认为地震破坏的负面效应所带来的经济损失十分巨大。因而必须加强防震减灾工作为保障城市化顺利发展服务。     

Snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards in the fjords of north-western Iceland,mitigation and prevention

In the fjords of north-western Iceland, snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards threaten 65% of the inhabitants. In this area, both historical and geomorphological evidences clearly demonstrate the recurrent danger from the steep slopes. Hazard vulnerability has increased during the last century, in connection with the population development of the Westfjords. Two snow-avalanche disasters during 1995 (in which 34 people were killed in two villages) prompted efforts to both mitigate and prevent future snow-avalanche and debris-flow activity. Research (qualitative and quantitative) on process characteristics describes prone terrain, runout distance, process behaviour along the slope, morphometric properties of the deposits and triggering factors. Acceptable risk, hazard and risk zoning are clearly defined by official regulations. Evacuation plans are determined from statistical characterisation of the risk and dynamic numerical modelling. To enhance the risk reduction, permanent and temporary measures aim to control the processes and to protect the population.     

A method for na-tech risk assessment as supporting tool for land use planning mitigation strategies

Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as 2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core.     

矿山灾害链及其断链减灾模式分析

为了揭示矿山灾害系统的复杂性规律和运动本质,运用系统理论观点,从灾害链的角度对矿山灾害链定义、分类、特点及链式发育机理进行了研究。提出矿山灾害链组合断链减灾模型,即\     

Appraise the structural mitigation of landslide risk via numerical modelling: a case study from the northern Apennines (Italy)

The Ca’ Lita landslide is a large and deep-seated mass movement located in the northern Apennines, about 70 km west of Bologna (Northern Italy). It consists of a composite landslide that affects Cretaceous to Eocene flysch rock masses and chaotic complexes. Many of the sectors making up the landslide have resumed activity between 2002 and 2006, threatening some villages and an important road connecting several key industrial facilities located in the upper watershed. This paper presents the management of the emergency, dealing with the investigation campaigns (geological, geomorphological and LiDAR surveys, borehole drillings, seismic surveys), with the monitoring (in situ instrumentation) and with the design and construction of mitigation measures. The whole process, from landslide reactivation to date, has been modelled on a numerical basis with the finite difference code FLAC 2D, to assess the efficiency of the mitigation system and to propose further countermeasure works in different scenarios.     

防震减灾空间信息资源改造方案设计

本文简要介绍“数字福建”项目中防震减灾空间信息资源改造的设计方案     

四川汶川县银杏乡地震灾后重建安置区地质灾害及防治

银杏乡是距离5.12汶川大地震震中映秀最近的乡镇之一,地震导致全乡618人死亡,11人失踪,近千人受伤,88%的房屋倒塌,灾害损失极为严重。本文在实地调查的基础上,分析了区域地质环境背景,对银杏乡东界脑村、兴文坪村、一碗水村、沙坪关村、桃关村等10处灾后安置区的地质灾害发育特征和灾害成因进行了初步研究,研究发现安置区共有滑坡、崩塌危岩和泥石流灾害62处,灾害规模较小,暴发频率较高,绝大多数地质灾害均属本次汶川地震的次生地质灾害。结合对未来灾害发展趋势的分析,文章提出了防灾减灾的对策和建议。     

Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。