Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.     

Integrated oil exploration decision systems

The fully integrated, analytical decision system can be developed for petroleum exploration. Such a system would use conditional probability estimates of wildcat drilling success, based on biologic variables. These probabilities can be combined with financial analyses to produce Assessments of optimum exploration strategies.This paper was presented at Symposium 116.3, Quantitative Strategy for Exploration, held as part of the 25th International Geological Congress, Sydney, Australia, August 1976.     

斯特列利措夫矿田一个大型-超大型铀矿床群在苏联时期是怎样被发现和被勘探的

斯特列利措夫（简称Str）矿田是一个主要由大型-超大型钼铀矿床构成的矿床群,它位于南滨额尔古纳地区,铀的总储量在25万t以上,平均品位0.20%。该矿田在苏联解体以来的很长时间内几乎是俄罗斯唯一的天然铀来源。该区找铀的工作历程漫长而曲折,并颇具传奇色彩。早在1948年苏联地质部第一局松林大队在南滨额尔古纳地区开始了找铀工作。但因区内几乎所有矿床均属盲矿,而且多埋深较大,1962年之前找铀无果,1962年春已决定放弃在该区进行的找铀工作。1962年夏天高级地质师Л П伊舒科娃参观了哈萨克斯坦产在酸性火山岩中2个规模不大的铀矿床（波统-布鲁姆和克泽尔-萨伊）,注意到斯特列利措夫萤石脉围岩霏细岩的蚀变与哈萨克斯坦2个规模不大的铀矿床相似。归来之后,她上书领导力主恢复本区找矿工作并获得了再去做最后一试的机会。1963年5月,伊舒科娃所设计的钻孔一箭中的,发现了首个Str超大型铀矿床,整个局面立刻出现大转折,加速矿田开发成了所有工作的总方针。矿床的普查勘探工作和对矿床的地质研究工作平行加速进行,两者互相促进。不到10年,矿田的大部分矿床被一一发现;到1966年底,Str等矿床的初勘成果已经成为1970年代初组建全苏最大铀矿山的充分依据。到1980年底,矿田已有17个钼铀矿床完成勘探。1992年底19个矿床勘探完成。新一轮找矿采用的方略：首先合理综合运用地质、放射性及传统地球物理和地球化学方法,并合理综合使用深度普查自动装置射孔和钻探手段,进行不同比例尺的立体地质-构造填图;然后在其成果的基础上用钻孔去发现矿体。勘探工作所面对的基本事实：矿床构成的多重复杂性为Str矿田内所有矿床的共同特征;每个矿床的特点各异,其勘探过程不尽相同。初勘使用地表钻探进行,基本网度200 m×100 m~400 m×100 m。详勘使用坑探工程与钻探相结合的手段,采用水平与垂直断面联合的勘探系统,基本网度50 m×20 m~50 m×25 m。所有矿床的勘探成果完全被开采工程证实,并有10%的储量增长。Str铀矿床形成于晚中生代,为区域构造-岩浆活化作用晚阶段的陆相火山作用地区的岩浆热液矿床,受断裂构造控制是其基本特征之一。铀矿床在矿田内空间定位的重要规律：Str及其他绝大多数铀矿床均受控于南北向、北西向或东西向断裂与北东向额尔古纳隐伏深断裂带交汇。"斯特列利措夫效应"曾迅速地在我国铀矿地质勘查工作中传播,期待在我国,尤其在呼伦贝尔,乃至大兴安岭-燕山山脉中生代构造-岩浆带地区继续发酵,取得更多和更大的成果。     

澳大利亚西澳州2004-2005年度矿产勘探综述

介绍了澳大利亚西澳州2004—2005年度金、镍、铁、钛、锆、金刚石矿床的勘探情况和取得的找矿成果。简述了2004—2005年度西澳州矿产勘探(包括石油勘探)消费支出、不同矿产品所占勘探支出的份额、钻探、矿山土地复垦及环境保护的情况。     

Distribution of time lags between successive petroleum exploration activities

Four time lags are studied: (1) drilling activity behind seismic activity; (2) oil and gas reserves discovered behind drilling activity; (3) oil and gas production behind reserves discovered; and (4) oil and gas production behind drilling activity. A ridge regression method is used to estimate the distributions of these lags for 50 countries and regions active in petroleum exploration. A complete review of obtained results is given as well as an interpretation of estimated models and failed ridge regressions. Five types of distributions have been found: decreasing monotonically, unimodal, bimodal, uniform, and increasing monotonically. The distributions allow estimating the capital freezing in the exploration process and assessing the resulting policy made by all companies active in a country. For example, the actual exploration history in Poland is analyzed with the use of distributed time-lag approach and net present-value concept. An overinvestment in drilling in comparison with petroleum infrastructure has been stated on the basis of the excessive lagging of production behind drilling activity. A direction of further lag studies is also suggested.     

Mineral adequacy, exploration success, and mineral policy in the United States

Data on copper reserves, recent discovery rates, and historical tonnage-grade relations indicate that the U.S. can be approximately self-sufficient in copper to the year 2000 by mining grades similar to those presently being mined, and given reasonable exploration efforts, the U.S. can supply its demand for about 100 years by mining inferred tonnages above 0.1% Cu. However, recent price trends and the increased cost of mining lower grade ore will increase the price of copper at a rate faster than the general inflation rate, and may lead to significant imports because of their cheaper price.Compilation of the discovery history for copper shows that the Hubbert Gaussian curve is not applicable to predict copper reserves, and may not be applicable for other commodities.A compilation of the value of base and precious metal deposits discovered since 1940, along with meager data on cost and manpower used in exploration, indicates very little decrease in exploration effectiveness over the 40-year interval, in contrast to oil and uranium. Collection of better data on expenditures for metallic mineral exploration is recommended.     

汶川地震后《地球物理学报》的快速反应和深度报道——以2008年5月～2010年5月载文数据分析为依据

分析了2008年5月12日汶川大地震后《地球物理学报》(以下简称《学报》)等中国科技期刊的快速反应和深度报道状况。大灾后,《学报》行动迅速,启动绿色通道,短时间内快速刊载相关研究成果,在快速反应速度上与国际大刊同步。在震后2年内《学报》持续深度报道汶川地震的研究成果,取得较好的效果。     

Improved Wildcat Modelling of Mineral Prospectivity

Wildcat modelling of mineral prospectivity has been proposed for greenfields geologically-permissive terranes where mineral targets have not yet been discovered but a geological map is available as a source of spatial data of predictors of mineral prospectivity. This paper (i) revisits the initial way of assigning wildcat scores (S_c) to predictors of mineral prospectivity and (ii) proposes an improvement by transforming S_c into improved wildcat scores (IS_c) by using a logistic function. This was shown in wildcat modelling of prospectivity for low-sulphidation epithermal-Au (LSEG) deposits in Aroroy district (Philippines). Based on knowledge of characteristics of and controls on LSEG mineralization in the Philippines, the spatial predictors of LSEG prospectivity used in the study are proximity to porphyry plutonic stocks, faults/fractures and fault/fracture intersections. The S_c and IS_c of spatial predictors are input separately to principal components analysis to extract a favourability function that can be interpreted as a wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity. The predictive capacity of the wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the IS_c of geological predictors is roughly 70% higher than that of the wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the S_c of geological predictors. A slight increase of predictive capacity of wildcat modelling of LSEG prospectivity is also achieved when the IS_c of geological predictors are integrated with the IS_c of geochemical anomalies, but not with the S_c of geochemical anomalies. The proposed improvement is significant because if the study district were a greenfields exploration area, then a wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the old wildcat methodology would have caused several LSEG targets to be missed.     

Carbazoles and benzocarbazoles confirm migration of leaked petroleum through caprocks and overlaying formations of Valhall Well 2/8-8 in the North Sea

A wildcat may not result in a petroleum prospect; however, it may indicate potential need for frontier exploration, since petroleum could leak into economic accumulations. Carbazoles and benzocarbazoles are nitrogen compounds in petroleum and can be employed to explicitly explain migration direction and distance of leaking petroleum. The hypothesis of this study is that the mechanism of the reaction involving the attraction of carbazoles to clay minerals on the matrix of the walls along their migration pathways determines the isomer that is preferentially attached to the mineral matrix. The objectives of this study are (a) to produce a profile for carbazoles and benzocarbazoles ratios in the cap rock overlying the reservoir, (b) to compare carbazole and benzocarbazole ratios to 20S/(20S + 20R) αααC₂₉ Sterane maturity ratios (c) to infer migration direction from the carbazoles and benzocarbazoles ratio. Samples used were side wall cores and drill cuttings of water-based mud drilling. The EOM (extractable organic matter) from various formations overlying the reservoir was obtained using Soxtherm Automatic Equipment. The TPH (total petroleum hydrocarbon) was obtained from the EOM by using a precleaned isolute C₁₈ 500 mg / 3 mL column, eluted with hexane, while the polars were eluted with dichloromethane. Fractionation into saturates and aromatics was done using a silver nitrate–silica gel column. The profiles of 1,8/1,3 and 1,8/2,4 dimethyl carbazoles and the benzocarbazoles ratios show a vertical gradient of decreasing ratio with increasing vertical distance from the reservoir. This corroborates the %VRo equivalent of 20S/(20S + 20R) αααC₂₉ Sterane and the carbazole ratios infer vertical migration of leaked petroleum.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

中国矽卡岩矿床找矿新进展和时空分布规律

近年来,中国矽卡岩矿床找矿取得了很大的新进展:西藏冈底斯成矿带和班公湖-怒江成矿带发现和探明了十余个大中型矽卡岩铜、金多金属矿床;在青海西部祁漫塔格成矿带发现和探明了不少铁多金属矽卡岩矿床;在东部地区发现和探明了一批大型隐伏的矽卡岩矿床,如河北白涧铁矿床、江西朱溪钨多金属矿床、湖南锡田锡钨矿床、福建上房钨矿床等。在新疆西天山发现和探明了一批大(中)型与火山-侵入活动有关的矽卡岩铁矿床。另外,在新疆发现白干湖、沙沟等大型钨矿床,在甘肃也发现和探明了大型钨矿床。学者们对上述矿床进行了较详细的研究。中国主要矽卡岩矿床最新同位素测年资料表明,矽卡岩矿床的生成时代从元古宙、古生代、中生代到新生代都有,但最重要的成岩成矿期是中生代的燕山期。在空间分布上,赵一鸣等(1990)曾划分出14个重要的矽卡岩成矿带,通过广大地质工作者的努力,在西藏、新疆和青海等省(区)找矿工作的重大进展,又新增4个矽卡岩成矿带,即西藏冈底斯成矿带、班公湖-怒江成矿带、青海祁漫塔格成矿带和新疆西天山成矿带。     

U–Pb and Re–Os Geochronology of the Hucunnan Copper–Molybdenum Deposit in Anhui Province,Southeast China,and its Geological Implications

The Middle–Lower Yangtze Region (MLYR) is one of the most important metallogenic belts in China that hosts numerous Cu–Fe–Au–S deposits. The Hucunnan deposit in the central part of MLYR is a newly discovered porphyry–skarn‐type copper–molybdenum deposit during recent drilling exploration. Laser ablation ICP–MS analysis carried out in this study yields U–Pb isotopic ages of 137.5 ± 1.2 Ma for the Cu–Mo bearing granodiorite rock and 125.0 ± 1.5 Ma for the Cu‐bearing quartz diorites. The Re–Os isotopic dating of seven molybdenite samples gave an isochron age of 139.5 ± 1.1 Ma, suggesting a syn‐magma mineralization of molybdenite in the Hucunnan deposit. Since porphyry‐type molybdenum deposits are rare in central MLYR, the discovery of the Hucunnan deposit suggests possible molybdenite mineralizations in the deep places of the Cu–Mo bearing granitoids. In addition, the U–Pb isotopic age of 125 Ma for the Cu‐bearing quartz diorites implies a new Cu mineralization period for the MLYR that was rarely reported by previous studies.     

济阳坳陷八面河探区油气资源前景和勘探效益预测

在对山东省八面河探区基本石油地质特征、勘探历程及实际的勘探效益和累积发现地质储量变化分析基础上，应用基于探区油藏总体服从帕莱托分布假设的抽样分析发现过程模型，对其石油资源潜力和油藏总体分布进行了预测；并在预测结果的基础上，应用所建立的勘探效益预测仿真模型，对探区勘探效益变化进行了模拟，且外推了未来勘探效益及累积发现地质储量的变化趋势。通过发现过程模型预测，八面河探区总资源量为14900储量单位，剩余资源量为5300储量单位，其中大部分剩余资源分布于较小规模的油藏中。从勘探效益分析可知，八面河探区已进入成熟的勘探阶段，预计未来平均每日探井发现地质储量将小于28储量单位，勘探效益处于一定稳定、低效且缓慢下降的阶段。     

Surface geochemical methods used for oil and gas prospecting — a review

The majority of the world's oil and gas deposits have been discovered by drilling in the vicinity of natural petroleum seeps, and to date the most successful geochemical prospecting methods still rely upon the surface detection of hydrocarbons. Gas chromatographic techniques are now commonly used in the analysis of hydrocarbon gases for prospecting both onshore (analysis of soils and rocks) and offshore (analysis of near-bottom waters and sediments). Detection of helium fluxes has been partially successful as a geochemical prospecting technique. Many indirect techniques such as the determination of isotope and metal-leaching anomalies in surface rocks and the measurement of radon fluxes have not been widely used.Onshore geochemical prospecting appears to have more problems associated with it than offshore prospecting due to the more complex migration mechanism of near-surface waters containing dissolved gases. No onshore prospecting studies have been published which thoroughly consider this factor and the success of onshore prospecting remains equivocal. In offshore prospecting “sniffers” have been used to detect hydrocarbon anomalies in near-bottom waters, and coring equipment has been used for the detection of hydrocarbons in near-surface sediments. Success is claimed using these techniques.Geochemical prospecting methods are complementary to the widely used geophysical methods. Geochemical methods can provide direct evidence for the presence of petroleum accumulations and are relatively cheap and rapid. Failures in prospecting to date are attributable to the simplistic manner in which data have been interpreted; insufficient attention has been paid to the hydrological and geological factors which modify the upward migration of indicator species to the surface. As oil and gas deposits become more difficult to locate, greater attention should be paid to geochemical prospecting techniques, especially as a regional exploration tool.     

Creaming and the Likelihood of Discovering Additional Giant Petroleum Fields

The applied context of this paper is the exploration for petroleum resources, like petroleum accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some size indicators, so-called creaming. The paper explores creaming models in the context of sampling with probabilities in proportion to size, for which a lognormal size distribution has nice analytical features. It departs from the traditional paradigm in petroleum resource assessment. Instead of conceiving a finite population being depleted over time in a decaying fashion with respect to size, the situation is studied within the framework of independent observations (infinite population) and an exploration maturity-dependent creaming factor. The theoretical and practical consequences for inference on the parent population and the probabilities and expectations linked to future discoveries are studied. The theory applies to the issue of remaining sizes of petroleum resources to be found within different future discovery horizons on the mature part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The aim is to obtain reasonable and useful predictions, and not to provide the best possible explanation of the exploratory behavior itself.     

Application of scattered and emitted seismic waves for improving the efficiency of exploration and development of hydrocarbon fields

The success of drilling oil and gas wells is largely determined by a high hydrocarbon content and reservoir permeability at the point of penetration. Microseismic emission and scattered reflection waves are used for the reliable study of these parameters. The Seismic Location of Emission Centers and Side-View Seismic Location technologies have been developed for the observation, selection, and positioning of waves in a geological environment, which significantly extend the range of problems that are solved during seismic exploration of hydrocarbon deposits. Examples of application of these technologies in the exploration and development of hydrocarbon deposits are described.     

河南千鹅冲钼矿地球化学异常特征及找矿模型

河南省光山县千鹅冲钼矿是近年在大别山北麓发现的特大型隐伏斑岩钼矿床。通过梳理该矿床从发现到突破近30年的找矿历程,研究矿床成矿地质特征及与矿床相关的元素区域异常、局部异常和原生异常特征,总结了该钼矿地球化学找矿标志及找矿模型。该矿床的找矿实践又一次证明了斑岩型钼矿化探具有较好的找矿效果,无论是1∶20万、1∶5万水系沉积物测量,还是1∶1万土壤测量或钻孔岩石测量等方法,均能揭示斑岩型钼矿的指示元素,并具有良好的找矿指示作用。     

我国油气储量、产量增长趋势影响因素分析

影响油气储量的增长趋势的影响因素很多, 不同类型盆地油气储量、产量增长规律差别也较大。充分认识影响储量、产量增长的各方面因素, 对合理预测我国油气储量产量增长趋势, 判断油气储量、产量增长领域, 确定盆地在目前和未来一段时期内的主要勘探目标等都有重要意义。目前, 对影响油气储量、产量增长因素的认识还存在不同看法, 部分因素没有得到充分考虑, 系统分析还需要进一步加强。本文通过分析, 将影响油气储量、产量增长趋势的影响因素归纳为三方面: 在地质方面, 油气资源潜力和资源分布的集中程度, 盆地圈闭发育特点直接影响勘探进程和储量增长: 资源潜力大、分布集中、圈闭发育均衡的盆地勘探进展快, 储量增长具有典型的双峰特点; 资源分布层位多的叠合盆地储量增长具有多峰特征等。在理论技术方面, 陆相成油理论打开了我国陆相盆地勘探领域, 出现我国第一个储量增长高峰, 岩性、地层成藏理论的成熟带来了我国储量第二个增长高峰; 地震技术、钻井技术、测井、测试技术和采油等勘探开发技术的进步, 不断拓展勘探领域, 勘探开发由正向构造扩展到凹陷, 由中浅层扩展到深层, 由陆地扩展到海洋, 由平原、丘陵扩展到山地、沙漠和滩海。油气需求和价格等直接影响勘探投入和储量发现。各种因素的作用方式和程度不同, 油气储量、产量增长特征是在各因素的综合作用下的结果。通过系统分析, 充分认识影响储量、产量增长的各方面因素, 可为合理预测我国油气储量、产量增长趋势, 判断油气储量、产量增长领域提供基础依据。     

中国西天山矿产勘查十年成果

西天山（包括西南天山）是新疆重要的金和有色金属成矿远景区,“八五”、“九五”期间,新发现和评价了一批重要的矿产地,为新疆经济发展做出了重大贡献。从矿产普查勘探和找矿科研两个方面回顾近十年来西天山矿产工作中所取得的成果,并提出今后工作建议。     

论找矿勘查的风险性和降低风险的预测性勘查战略

找矿勘查的高风险性表现在找到可赢利矿床的成功率低和找矿发现的成本越来越高,这不仅影响了矿业经济的发展,也影响了公众对地球科学的认识。根据国际找矿勘查的一些统计资料和实例分析了造成找矿勘查高风险性的原因,提出降低风险的预测性勘查战略。区域地质背景、成矿作用的复杂性和勘查者所具有的知识、思维能力、技术手段的局限性等客观因素使找矿勘查的风险不可避免,但不少找矿勘查的失败是由勘查者在资料使用、观察、思维等方面的主观失误造成的。勘查者可以通过增加尝试的次数来获取成功,更可取的是通过提高矿床预测的准确度,以预测性勘查促找矿发现,进而降低找矿勘查的风险。