Topo-stress based probabilistic model for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

While dealing with slope stability issues, determining the state of stress and the relation between driving force and resisting force are the fundamental deterministic steps. Gravitational stresses affect geologic processes and engineering operations in slopes. Considering this fact, a concept of topo-stress evaluation is developed in this research and used to produce a shallow landslide susceptibility map in a model area. The topo-stress introduced in this research refers to the shear stress induced by the gravitational forces on the planes parallel to the ground surface. Weight of the material on a slope and friction angle of the jointed rock mass are the two fundamental parameters that are considered to govern topo-stress in this study. Considering topo-stress as a main factor for initiating shallow landslides, a GIS-based probabilistic model is developed for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation. An ideal terrain in central Nepal is selected as the study area for this purpose. Two event-based shallow landslide inventories are used to predict accuracy of the model, which is found to be more than 78 % for the first event-landslides and more than 76 % for the second event-landslides. It is evident from these prediction rates that the probabilistic topo-stress model proposed in this work is quite acceptable when regional scale shallow landslide susceptibility mapping is practiced, such as in the Himalayan rocky slopes.     

Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach

To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities, and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted. An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy of mapping results.     

GIS-based assessment of landslide susceptibility on the base of the Weights-of-Evidence model

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.     

Cross-application used to validate landslide susceptibility maps using a probabilistic model from Korea

A study of landslides in Youngin, Janghung and Boeun, Korea, using the geographic information system (GIS) validates a spatial probabilistic model for landslide susceptibility analysis. Locations were identified from aerial photographs, satellite images and field surveys. Topography, soil-type, forest-cover and land-cover maps were constructed from spatial data sets. Landslide occurrence is influenced by 13 factors, evidence for which was extracted from the database with the frequency ratio of each factor computed. Landslide susceptibility maps use frequency ratios derived not only from data for each area but also ratios, one from the probabilistic model, calculated from the other two areas (nine maps in all) as a cross-check of method validity. For validation, analytical results were compared in each study area with actual landslide locations: Boeun based on its frequency ratio showed the best accuracy (82.49%) whereas Janghung based on the Boeun frequency ratio showed the worst (69.53%).     

A GIS-based landslide susceptibility evaluation using bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses

Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to predict the spatial distribution of landslides in the Cuyahoga River watershed, northeastern Ohio, U.S.A. The relationship between landslides and various instability factors contributing to their occurrence was evaluated using a Geographic Information System (GIS) based investigation. A landslide inventory map was prepared using landslide locations identified from aerial photographs, field checks, and existing literature. Instability factors such as slope angle, soil type, soil erodibility, soil liquidity index, landcover pattern, precipitation, and proximity to stream, responsible for the occurrence of landslides, were imported as raster data layers in ArcGIS, and ranked using a numerical scale corresponding to the physical conditions of the region. In order to investigate the role of each instability factor in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides, both bivariate and multivariate models were used to analyze the digital dataset. The logistic regression approach was used in the multivariate model analysis. Both models helped produce landslide susceptibility maps and the suitability of each model was evaluated by the area under the curve method, and by comparing the maps with the known landslide locations. The multivariate logistic regression model was found to be the better model in predicting landslide susceptibility of this area. The logistic regression model produced a landslide susceptibility map at a scale of 1:24,000 that classified susceptibility into four categories: low, moderate, high, and very high. The results also indicated that slope angle, proximity to stream, soil erodibility, and soil type were statistically significant in controlling the slope movement.     

Improving the accuracy of landslide susceptibility model using a novel region-partitioning approach

Landslide is a natural disaster that threatens human lives and properties worldwide. Numerous have been conducted on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), in which each has attempted to improve the accuracy of final outputs. This study presents a novel region-partitioning approach for LSM to understand the effects of partitioning a focused region into smaller areas on the prediction accuracy of common regression models. Results showed that the partitioning of the study area into two regions using the proposed method improved the prediction rate from 0.77 to 0.85 when support vector machine was used, and from 0.87 to 0.88 when logistic regression model was utilized. The spatial agreements of the models were also improved after partitioning the area into two regions based on Shannon entropy equations. Our comparative study indicated that the proposed method outperformed the geographically weighted regression model that considered the spatial variations in landslide samples. Overall, the main advantages of the proposed method are improved accuracy and the reduction of the effects of spatial variations exhibited in landslide-conditioning factors.     

Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using bivariate statistical analysis in Devrek (Zonguldak-Turkey)

Devrek town with increasing population is located in a hillslope area where some landslides exist. Therefore, landslide susceptibility map of the area is required. The purpose of this study was to generate a landslide susceptibility map using a bivariate statistical index and evaluate and compare the results of the statistical analysis conducted with three different approaches in seed cell concept resulting in different data sets in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based landslide susceptibility mapping applied to the Devrek region. The data sets are created from the seed cells of (a) crowns and flanks, (b) only crowns, and (c) only flanks of the landslides by using ten different causative parameters of the study area. To increase the data dependency of the analysis, all parameter maps are classified into equal frequency classes based directly on the percentile divisions of each corresponding seed cell data set. The resultant maps of the landslide susceptibility analysis indicate that all data sets produce fairly acceptable results. In each data set analysis, elevation, lithology, slope, aspect, and drainage density parameters are found to be the most contributing factors in landslide occurrences. The results of the three data sets are compared using Seed Cell Area Indexes (SCAI). This comparison shows that the crown data set produces the most accurate and successful landslide susceptibility map of the study area.     

An approach for GIS-based statistical landslide susceptibility zonation—with a case study in the Himalayas

Landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) is necessary for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous regions. A number of methods, viz. landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses have been used for the LSZ studies and they are again briefly reviewed here. In this work, two methods, the Information Value (InfoVal) and the Landslide Nominal Susceptibility Factor (LNSF) methods that are based on bivariate statistical analysis have been applied for LSZ mapping in a part of the Himalayas. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relative relief, lithology, buffer zones along thrusts, faults and lineaments, drainage density and landcover) that are related to landslide activity, have been generated using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The LSZ derived from the LNSF method, has been compared with that produced from the InfoVal method and the result shows a more realistic LSZ map from the LNSF method which appears to conform to the heterogeneity of the terrain.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping with probabilistic likelihood ratio and spatial multi-criteria evaluation models (North of Tehran,Iran)

The aim of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility mapping by probabilistic likelihood ratio (PLR) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models based on geographic information system (GIS) in the north of Tehran metropolitan, Iran. The landslide locations in the study area were identified by interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys. In order to generate the necessary factors for the SMCE approach, remote sensing and GIS integrated techniques were applied in the study area. Conditioning factors such as slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, profile curvature, surface area ratio, topographic position index, topographic wetness index, stream power index, slope length, lithology, land use, normalized difference vegetation index, distance from faults, distance from rivers, distance from roads, and drainage density are used for landslide susceptibility mapping. Of 528 landslide locations, 70 % were used in landslide susceptibility mapping, and the remaining 30 % were used for validation of the maps. Using the above conditioning factors, landslide susceptibility was calculated using SMCE and PLR models, and the results were plotted in ILWIS-GIS. Finally, the two landslide susceptibility maps were validated using receiver operating characteristic curves and seed cell area index methods. The validation results showed that area under the curve for SMCE and PLR models is 76.16 and 80.98 %, respectively. The results obtained in this study also showed that the probabilistic likelihood ratio model performed slightly better than the spatial multi-criteria evaluation. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility evaluation using fuzzy-AHP multi-criteria decision-making techniques in the Abha Watershed,Saudi Arabia

Landslides are natural geological disasters causing massive destructions and loss of lives, as well as severe damage to natural resources, so it is essential to delineate the area that probably will be affected by landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is making increasing implications for GIS-based spatial analysis in combination with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods. It is considered to be an effective tool to understand natural disasters related to mass movements and carry out an appropriate risk assessment. This study is based on an integrated approach of GIS and statistical modelling including fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), weighted linear combination and MCE models. In the modelling process, eleven causative factors include slope aspect, slope, rainfall, geology, geomorphology, distance from lineament, distance from drainage networks, distance from the road, land use/land cover, soil erodibility and vegetation proportion were identified for landslide susceptibility mapping. These factors were identified based on the (1) literature review, (2) the expert knowledge, (3) field observation, (4) geophysical investigation, and (5) multivariate techniques. Initially, analytical hierarchy process linked with the fuzzy set theory is used in pairwise comparisons of LSM criteria for ranking purposes. Thereafter, fuzzy membership functions were carried out to determine the criteria weights used in the development of a landslide susceptibility map. These selected thematic maps were integrated using a weighted linear combination method to create the final landslide susceptibility map. Finally, a validation of the results was carried out using a sensitivity analysis based on receiver operator curves and an overlay method using the landslide inventory map. The study results show that the weighted overlay analysis method using the FAHP and eigenvector method is a reliable technique to map landslide susceptibility areas. The landslide susceptibility areas were classified into five categories, viz. very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, high susceptibility, and very high susceptibility. The very high and high susceptibility zones account for 15.11% area coverage. The results are useful to get an impression of the sustainability of the watershed in terms of landsliding and therefore may help decision makers in future planning and mitigation of landslide impacts.     

Application of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to GIS-based landslide susceptibility analysis

GIS-based spatial data integration tasks for predictive geological applications, such as landslide susceptibility analysis, have been regarded as one of the primary geological application issues of GIS. An efficient framework for proper representation and integration is required for this kind of application. This paper presents a data integration framework based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence for landslide susceptibility mapping with multiple geospatial data. A data-driven information representation approach based on spatial association between known landslide occurrences and input geospatial data layers is used to assign mass functions. After defining mass functions for multiple geospatial data layers, Dempster’s rule of combination is applied to obtain a series of combined mass functions. Landslide susceptibility mapping using multiple geospatial data sets from Jangheung in Korea was conducted to illustrate the application of this methodology. The results of the case study indicated that the proposed methodology efficiently represented and integrated multiple data sets and showed better prediction capability than that of a traditional logistic regression model.     

机器学习及其相关算法综述

机器学习已经在滑坡易发性评价中大量应用且取得了较好的表现,但在进行大区域评价时,仍存在数据库样本需求量大,算力要求高;影响因素分级机械化,未考虑其与滑坡机理的相关性等情况。为减少数据库样本需求,本文提出了构建包含3种坡体状态的滑坡的数据库：已经发生过失稳的坡体、正处于失稳状态的坡体、失稳概率小的坡体,该数据库可以在数值上划分出临界值,便于模型更准确地识别滑坡,较大幅度地减小了数据量。针对影响因素分级机械化的问题,提出了基于频数分布图、累计曲线及其导数图的数理统计方式,更精细地描述因数与滑坡易发性的关系。以新疆滑坡灾害为例,验证了“包含3种坡体状态的数据库”与“基于数理统计的描述方法”的适用性,获得了新疆滑坡灾害易发性分区图。结果表明与传统数据库对比,在不明显改变精度的前提下,减少了90%以上的样本量;基于数理统计的描述方法可以绘制出更加细致的滑坡危险性分区图;活动性断裂和地形起伏度对新疆滑坡易发性起到重要的控制作用。     

PROMETHEE II and fuzzy AHP: an enhanced GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping

This paper describes the application of a well-known multi-criteria decision-making technique, called preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE II), in combination with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), as a weighting technique to explore landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). To this end, eight landslide-related geodata layers of the Minoo Dasht located in the Gorgan province of Iran, involving slope, aspect, distance to river, drainage density, distance to fault, mean annual rainfall, distance to road and lithology have been integrated using the PROMETHEE II enhanced by FAHP technique. Afterward, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the proposed LSM were drawn using an inventory of landslides containing 83 recent and historic landslide points, and the area under curve = 0.752 value was calculated accordingly. Additionally, to further verify the practicality of such susceptibility map, it was also evaluated against the landslide inventory using simple overlay. The outcome was that about 11 % of the occurred landslide points fall into the very high susceptibility class of the LSM, but approximately 52 % of them indeed fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones together. Also, it resulted that no recorded landslide occurred in the zone of very low susceptibility. According to the results of the ROC curves analysis and simple overlay evaluation, the produced map has exhibited good performance.     

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in shallow aquifer of Kathmandu Valley using GIS-based DRASTIC model

In this paper, groundwater aquifer vulnerability map has been developed by incorporating the major geological and hydro-geological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination using GIS based DRASTIC model. This work demonstrates the potential of GIS to derive a map by overlying various spatially referenced digital data layers that portrays cumulative aquifer sensitivity ratings across the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, providing a relative indication of groundwater vulnerability to contamination. In fact, the groundwater is the major natural resources in Kathmandu for drinking purpose. The decline in groundwater levels due to the over exploitation and thus extracted water from shallow aquifer has been contaminated by the infiltration of pollutants from polluted river and land surface is continuous and serious. As the demand for water for human and industrial use has escalated and at the same time, the engineering and environmental costs are much higher for new water supplies than maintaining the existing sources already in use. Management of groundwater source and protecting its quality is therefore essential to increase efficient use of existing water supplies. Aquifer vulnerability maps developed in this study are valuable tools for environmental planning and predictive groundwater management. Further, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on aquifer vulnerability assessment such that some subjectivity can be reduced to some extent and then new weights have been computed for each DRASTIC parameters.