降雨和库水位联合作用下库岸滑坡模型试验研究

受库区水位波动和降雨影响,库岸大量老滑坡体变形加剧,地质灾害问题十分突出。为研究库岸滑坡影响因素、变形演化规律及失稳条件,以大型物理模型试验为手段,选取三峡库区黄土坡滑坡临江Ⅰ号崩滑体为对象,通过考虑水位波动、降雨及其组合作用等诱发因素,开展了一系列的库岸滑坡模型试验研究。试验结果表明：水位升降,变形主要集中于模型坡体前缘,其中,水位抬升过程中,滑坡模型变形较小,变形加速阶段出现于水位下降期间,且变形速率与水位下降速率成正比,即临江Ⅰ号崩滑体为典型的动水压力型滑坡;降雨影响下坡体变形在时间和空间上存在明显分区现象,时间上,变形发展主要集中于坡体浅表层饱和之后,即短时降雨对坡体变形未产生显著影响,空间上,坡体前缘和后缘变形剧烈;库水位下降和强降雨联合作用下坡体前缘产生局部流滑破坏,并溯源发展至前缘整体破坏,为典型的牵引式破坏模式。试验揭示处于临滑阶段坡体,其孔隙水压力、土压力变化呈现异常频繁的波动现象,可为滑坡预警预报提供一定参考依据。     

时序InSAR技术三峡库区藕塘滑坡稳定性监测与状态更新

坡体表面形变是表征坡体稳定性的重要信息,因此,非常有必要对滑坡多发区域进行时序常规变形监测.近年来,星载合成孔径雷达数据由于其覆盖范围大、形变监测精度高的特点,被越来越多的用于山区滑坡识别与探测.首先介绍了联合分布式目标与点目标的时序InSAR方法,并将该方法应用于分析覆盖三峡藕塘滑坡的2007年至2011年的19景ALOS PALSAR数据和2015年至2018年的47景Sentinel-1数据,提取了数据覆盖时间段内的藕塘地区的变形速率.发现相比于2007年至2011年,2015年至2018年新增三处不稳定斜坡.进一步对滑坡的时序变形分析表明,降雨和水位变化是坡体稳定性最大的两个影响因素.实验证明时序InSAR方法可以作为常规形变手段来识别与监测三峡库区等地区潜在的滑坡,为防灾减灾提供支持与依据.      

三峡库区黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型研究

传统的入渗模型未考虑坡角和降雨强度对滑坡入渗过程的影响,为了更好地描述黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗过程,在Green- Ampt入渗模型的基础上推导了考虑坡体倾角和小降雨强度影响的降雨入渗模型。为了获取改进的入渗模型参数,在黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体上进行了双环渗透试验与降雨、土的含水率和基质吸力现场监测。结果表明,黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体饱和渗透系数为4.81×10-5 m/s;降雨时体积含水率增加,降雨停止后体积含水率降低,深部表现出一定的滞后特性;基质吸力变化趋势与体积含水率相反,降雨使其减小,降雨停止后逐渐增大。通过双环渗透试验与现场监测,获取了黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型参数值。将入渗模型计算值与现场监测数据进行对比,该模型计算值与现场监测数据吻合,说明该降雨入渗模型可用于黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗分析。     

水库型滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比物理预测模型及其应用

众所周知,库水位变化和降雨复合动力往往是水库型滑坡的变形和破坏主因。本文在系统分析水库型边坡位移、库水位及降雨变化规律基础上,提出与确定了降雨与库水动力转换系数k的计算方法,并通过转换系数k将降雨动力与库水动力这两种不同的水动力增载效应进行了有机耦合叠加,建立了复合水动力增载参数的计算方法。并将复合水动力变化量及其位移变化量作为动力增载及其响应参数,建立了水库型滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比物理预测参数与模型。同时,运用该模型对白水河滑坡复合水动力作用下的稳定性演化规律进行了系统分析与评价,结果表明该滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比的变化规律与其稳定性动态演化规律相吻合,表明复合水动力增载位移响应比参数是一种水库型滑坡有效的物理评价参数,可运用该物理评价参数与预测模型对该类滑坡稳定性进行分析与评价。     

The response of river discharge to climate fluctuations in the source region of the Yellow River

The Yellow River is the second biggest river in China and serves as a source of domestic and agricultural water supply in the watershed. In the last several decades, this river’s discharge reduced to zero several times since 1960, especially in the 1990s. The decreasing river flow has caused some serious eco-environmental problems in the source region. To study the important effects of climate on river discharge in the source area, a data set of 44 water-year river flow, air temperature and precipitation is selected and wavelet analysis is performed to describe and identify the features of climate (air temperature and precipitation) and river discharge. Results of continuous wavelet transform (CWT) show that all three parameters have common significant periods of 1–2 and 3–6 years against red noise in different time spans while river discharge probably has a 16-year-period mainly in the cone of influence (COI). Comparison of river flow and its CWT suggests these zero river flows are connected to extreme low values located in different scales, indicating that climate does control the river discharge in the source area. The cross wavelet (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) clearly illustrate that the first zero river discharge (about in 1961) is only related to precipitation, while the rest have resulted from the combination of air temperature and precipitation.     

顺层缓倾型水库滑坡稳定性物理模拟试验研究—以向家坪滑坡为例

深入研究顺层缓倾型水库滑坡的变形破坏规律、影响因素以及失稳条件, 以三峡库区向家坪滑坡为典型实例, 基于相似理论建立地质物理模型, 考虑水位升降、降雨(含汛期)等诱发因素, 通过监测滑坡模型的位移、土压力及孔隙水压力的时空演化规律, 掌握滑坡的变形特征和规律。结果表明:库水位上升, 坡体前缘不断被浸没, 致使土体结构松散, 前缘发生滑移式滑塌; 库水位下降, 其位移、土压力和孔隙水压力在坡体中部和后缘均无变化, 但前缘破坏范围扩大, 延伸至中部; 库水位的独立变动仅影响下伏滑床水位, 但当其与后缘的基岩裂隙水耦合作用时, 可改变滑床的承压水头; 汛期降雨较小, 对滑坡稳定性影响不大, 仅土压力和孔隙水压有小幅度的变化, 没有位移变形; 在暴雨作用下, 中部和后缘先后发生变形, 土体应力累积和释放。库水位下降时, 强降雨将改变坡体原始应力状态, 坡体产生微小变形; 在极端条件下向家坪滑坡发生滑动的可能性较大, 库水位的下降、暴雨和后缘水位相互耦合作用导致坡体变形破坏。研究结果可为库区地质灾害防治和减灾提供科学依据。     

Contribution of cross time-frequency analysis in assessment of possible relationships between large-scale climatic fluctuations and rainfall of northern central Algeria

This paper is proposed for the investigation of possible relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and rainfall of Sebaou river watershed (Northern central Algeria), covering a period of 39 years at monthly scale. Several time and scale-based methods were used: correlation and spectral analysis (CSA), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA), cross wavelet analysis (XWT), wavelet coherence transform (WCT) and cross multiresolution wavelet analysis (CMRWA). The rainfall analysis by CSA and CWT has been clearly demonstrating the dominance of 1 year and 1–3-year modes, which they explain 30 to 51% and 25 to 28% of the variance respectively. However, the indices have shown that inter-annual fluctuations up to long-term explain between 60 and 90%. CWT and MRWA indicated significant fluctuations materialising a dry period more marked between the 1980s and 1990s with strong trend towards drier conditions starting from the 1980s, explained by the decadal components D7 and the approximation A7. In addition to the annual component, the XWT spectrums reveal strong coefficients for the SOI between 1992–2005 and 1986–2000 for the modes of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years respectively and less intense for NAO. The WCT between NAO and rainfall indicated the most significant relationship for 1 year, 1–3 years and 3–5 years approximately from the early 1980s corresponding to the dry period. However, the SOI affects rainfall only locally and with significant values more or less localised in the time-frequency space between MO, WeMO and rainfall, but this influence could be significant for low-frequency events. CWMRA shows that the components of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years are the most effective to represent climate index-rainfall significant relationships, where change in Daubechies wavelet properties can improve the correlation across the scales. Furthermore, has indicated that the short-term processes dominate the relationship index-rainfall, which masks the long-term phenomena whose influence can sometimes be very distant. As such, the rainfall variability of the study area has shown fairly significant links, at least locally with large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena.     

New data and interpretations of the shallow and deep deformation of Huangtupo No. 1 riverside sliding mass during seasonal rainfall and water level fluctuation

The original Badong County, Hubei, China, was mainly below the highest water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which is 175 m above sea level. The new downtown of Badong was rebuilt in the Huangtupo area between 1982 and 1991. After detailed geological investigation in the Huangtupo area, four independent landslides were identified, making it one of the largest and most harmful landslide group in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Since 2003, abundant data have been obtained from the Huangtupo No. 1 sliding mass about rainfall, water level, earth surface deformation and deep deformation. The monitoring data indicate that the earth surface and deep deformation of this landslide is closely related to the seasonal rainfall and water level fluctuation of the reservoir. During increases in the water level, the earth surface deformation velocity decreases, and then increases obviously in the subsequent water level decreasing stage. Because the water level drawdown period overlaps with the rainy season in this area, the earth surface deformation is affected by both rainfall and water level. The deformation velocity of the earth surface caused by rainfall is about 5 mm/month, while that caused by water level decrease is 5–7 mm/month. On the contrary, the deformation velocity of the deep sliding mass accelerates 2 to 3 times faster than average during water level increase. The distinction of surface and deep deformation regulations indicates that the effects of seasonal rainfall and water level fluctuation on the stability of reservoir wading landslides are different. Based on all monitoring data, we also found that the Huangtupo No. 1 riverside sliding mass is creeping seasonally during the seasonal rainfall and periodic reservoir water level fluctuation. The deformation velocities of the east regions of the sliding body indicate acceleration, making these regions even more dangerous.     

长江三峡库区木鱼包滑坡地表变形规律分析

三峡库区木鱼包滑坡自2006年实施专业监测以来,一直持续变形,对三峡大坝工程和长江航道造成巨大威胁。通过多次野外地质调查资料、长期现场巡查、人工GPS位移监测数据、近1年的全自动监测数据等,深入分析该滑坡在库水涨落及降雨条件下的变形特征、演化规律及变形机制。结果表明,滑坡坡体结构、岩性及地质构造等地质因素控制了木鱼包滑坡的变形,库水位是主要的驱动因素。库水位上升过程中,库水位由145 m升到155 m左右,月位移量为最小值;动水压力向坡内,滑坡变形最小;库水位155 m上升至175 m期间,库水入渗前部坡体,对滑坡前部抗滑段形成浮托减重效应,变形有所增加。库水位由175 m下降到170 m左右,累积位移形成阶跃,坡受向坡外动水压力和浮托减重效应作用,月位移达最大值。库水位由170 m降到145 m期间,浮托减重效应作用减小,月位移量降低。目前,木鱼包滑坡变形趋势减小,产生大规模滑动的可能性较小,但须进一步加强监测和机制研究。     

含水率对滑带土强度参数的影响

滑带土是滑坡体的重要组成部分,滑带土的强度特征对于边坡稳定具有重要的控制作用。三峡库区的黄土坡滑坡因常年经受库水位变化与降雨的影响,滑带土的含水率总是处于不断变化的过程中,因而对其强度参数产生了较大的影响。针对这一问题,在三峡库区黄土坡临江二号滑坡上采集了滑带土样,对不同含水率下的滑带土进行了不排水快剪试验。试验结果显示:含水率的变化对滑带土的抗剪强度影响较为敏感;试验数据拟合发现,滑带土的黏聚力C及内摩擦角φ均随含水率增大近似呈线性减小,且φ值降低的线性规律更趋明显。      

三峡库区黄土坡滑坡浸润线动态变化规律研究

以三峡库区黄土坡滑坡为研究对象,结合滑坡体地下水位监测数据,分析库水涨落对滑坡地下水位的影响。建立了黄土坡滑坡渗流模拟的有限元计算模型,并确定了模型合理的水头边界条件。利用Geo-Studio软件的SEEP/W模块,对库水位涨落情况下滑坡暂态渗流场的变化进行模拟,并且分析浸润线的动态变化过程,确定了库水位涨落对滑坡前缘浸润线影响区在滑坡前缘300 m范围内,并对库水位上升和下降两种工况下滑体前缘浸润线位置进行了预测。最后,分析了库水位涨落下库岸滑坡浸润线变化对滑坡稳定性影响,为研究库水位涨落下库岸滑坡浸润线和滑坡稳定性提供了依据。     

基于数据挖掘的三峡库区特大滑坡变形关联规则研究

从实测数据中分析滑坡灾害的成因机理,对于准确识别潜在危险区与及时制定防治措施十分重要。由于现场监测数据的数量庞大、来源多样,常规的数据处理方法难以从海量监测数据中提取出有用的信息,进而对滑坡变形演化趋势作出正确评价和预测。本文基于经典数据挖掘方法中的两步聚类法与关联规则分析,提出了滑坡变形行为的关联分析挖掘技术,并以长江三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,对库水位波动及降雨影响下的特大滑坡位移速率进行了关联分析。结果表明:该滑坡的变形受库水位高程水平、库水位波动速率与降雨强度等因素的多重影响,水位下降、强降雨与滑坡变形密切相关;滑坡不同空间位置处的变形影响因素存在差异,由坡脚至坡顶,库水位波动的影响水平依次降低,降雨强度的影响水平逐渐增强。本文提出的数据挖掘方法可定量分析滑坡变形的控制因素,并通过与实测数据的对比验证了相关规则的可靠性,这对于海量监测数据条件下滑坡灾害的成因分析有重要意义。     

三峡库区白家包滑坡变形特征与影响因素分析

针对三峡库区阶跃型滑坡,以白家包滑坡为例,统计分析滑坡位移、变形速率和裂缝监测数据。显示滑坡在2007年6月之前为蠕动变形初期,受降雨和库水位等外界因素的作用,6月滑坡发生剧烈变形,之后一直保持约75°方向滑动。滑坡体中前部位移速率大于后缘,其变形具有牵引式特点。滑体上裂缝与变形位移具有一致性,位移量越大的区域裂缝越发育。将位移速率与降雨、库水位和地下水进行影响机制分析,建立滑坡变形与外界动态影响因素之间的响应关系。结果表明降雨量和库水位变化是引起滑坡季节性变形的主要因素,其中降雨强度、库水位下降及下降速率是导致滑坡位移速率波动大小的关键因子。     

三峡库区黄土坡滑坡非饱和水力参数研究

非饱和水力参数在计算滑坡降雨入渗过程与稳定性时是至关重要的材料参数。在三峡库区黄土坡滑坡上进行双环渗透试验,获取黄土坡滑坡表土层的饱和渗透系数。对黄土坡滑坡表土层的含水率和基质吸力进行实时监测,采集了黄土坡滑坡表土层中含水率和基质吸力随时间的变化数据,采用van Genuchten土-水特征曲线模型拟合了4个实时监测剖面的土-水特征曲线及其拟合参数。将饱和渗透系数与土-水特征曲线拟合参数代入van Genuchten渗透系数函数模型,求出了黄土坡滑坡表土层在非饱和条件下的渗透系数函数,为黄土坡滑坡在降雨作用下的稳定性计算提供了可靠的水力参数     

黄土坡临江I号崩滑体变形及稳定性演化规律研究

为准确把握黄土坡临江I号崩滑体在水库运营期间的变形及稳定性演化动态,采用试验隧洞群的形式充分揭露崩滑体的地质结构及空间形态,并构建崩滑体双层滑带地质模型。采用饱和-非饱和渗流有限元算法获取其在水库运营期间地下水渗流场的动态变化过程,以此为基础研究崩滑体的变形和稳定性演化规律。研究表明,崩滑体的变形主要发生在库水位下降期间,且呈明显的牵引式运动特征,变形演化规律与GPS监测点实测数据相符;崩滑体的浅层滑坡在演化过程中受地下水渗流场动态变化的影响较大,因此,其稳定性系数的波动幅值也较大,其临界失稳水位下降速度为2.0 m/d。综合分析认为,黄土坡临江I号崩滑体整体稳定性相对较好,但浅层滑坡在降雨和库水位下降过程中存在局部失稳的可能。     

Detection and accuracy of landslide movement by InSAR analysis using PALSAR-2 data

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis is a radar technique for generating large-area maps of ground deformation using differences in the phase of microwaves returning to a satellite. In recent years, high-resolution SAR sensors have been developed that enable small-scale slope deformation to be detected, such as the partial block movement of a landslide. The L-band SAR (PALSAR-2) is mounted on Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), which was launched on 24 Mar. 2014. Its main improvements compared with ALOS are enhanced resolution of as high as 3 m with a high-frequency recurrence period (14 days). Owing to its high resolution and the use of the L-band, PALSAR-2 can obtain reflective data passing through a tree canopy surface, unlike the other synthetic aperture radars. Therefore, the coherence of InSAR in mountainous forest areas is less likely to decrease, making it advantageous for the extraction of slope movement. In this study, to verify the accuracy of InSAR analysis using PALSAR-2 data, we compared the results of InSAR analysis and the measurement of the displacement in a landslide by global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observation. It was found that the average difference between the displacements obtained by InSAR analysis and the field measurements by GNSS was only 15.1 mm in the slant range direction, indicating the high accuracy of InSAR analysis. Many of the areas detected by InSAR analysis corresponded to the locations of surface changes due to landslide activity. Additionally, in the areas detected by InSAR analysis using multiple datasets, the ground changes due to landslide movement were confirmed by site investigation.     

Retrieval of time series three-dimensional landslide surface displacements from multi-angular SAR observations

A major limitation for wide application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing in mapping landslide surface displacements is the intrinsic gap between the ultimate objective of measuring three-dimensional displacements and the limited capability of detecting only one or two-dimensional displacements by repeat-pass SAR observations of identical imaging geometries. Although multi-orbit SAR observations of dissimilar viewing geometries can be jointly analyzed to inverse the three-dimensional displacements, the reliability of inversion results might be highly questionable in case of continuous motion because of the usually asynchronous acquisitions of multi-orbit SAR datasets. Aiming at this problem, we proposed an approach of retrieving time series three-dimensional displacements from multi-angular SAR datasets for step-like landslides in the Three Gorges area in this article. Firstly, time series displacements of a common ground target in the azimuth and line-of-sight (LOS) direction can be estimated using traditional methods of SAR interferometry (InSAR) and SAR pixel offset tracking (POT), respectively. Then, a spline fitting and interpolation procedure was employed to parameterize the displacement history in the sliding/dormant periods of step-like landslides and estimate displacements from multi-angular observations for identical date series. Finally, three-dimensional displacements can be inverted from these synchronized multi-angular measured displacements in traditional ways. As a case study, the proposed method was applied to retrieve the three-dimensional displacements history of the Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges area, China. Comparisons between SAR-measured displacements and measurements of global positioning system (GPS) showed good agreement. Furthermore, temporal correlation analyses suggest that reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall are the two most important impact factors for the Shuping landslide stability.     

Cross-Wavelet Analysis: a Tool for Detection of Relationships between Paleoclimate Proxy Records

Cross-wavelet transform (XWT) is proposed as a data analysis technique for geological time-series. XWT permits the detection of cross-magnitude, phase differences (= lag time), nonstationarity, and coherency between signals from different paleoclimate records that may exhibit large stratigraphic uncertainties and noise levels. The approach presented herein utilizes a continuous XWT technique with Morlet wavelet as the mother function, allows for variable scaling factors for time and scale sampling, and the automatic extraction of the most significant periodic signals. XWT and cross-spectral analysis is applied on computer generated time-series as well as two independently sampled proxy records (CO₂ content approximated from plant cuticles and paleotemperature derived from δ ¹⁸O from marine fossil carbonate) of the last 290 Ma. The influence of nonstationarities in the paleoclimate records that are introduced by stratigraphic uncertainties were a particular focus of this study. The XWT outputs of the computer-models indicate that a potential causal relationship can be distorted if different geological time-scale and/or large stratigraphic uncertainties have been used. XWT detect strong cross-amplitudes (∼200 ppm ‰) between the CO₂ and δ ¹⁸O record in the 20–50 Myr waveband, however, fluctuating phase differences prevent a statistical conclusion on causal relationship at this waveband.     

三峡库区巴东复杂斜坡系统变形机理数值模拟与稳定性研究

三峡库区巴东斜坡系统复杂,其变形机理与稳定性研究对移民迁建和地质灾害防治具有重要意义。本文采用FLAC3D数值计算方法,对巴东复杂斜坡系统变形机理进行研究,为“重力成因论”提供了支持和佐证。从整个斜坡系统的角度,联合使用数值计算方法(FLAC3D)和极限平衡法(Sarma法),系统研究了巴东复杂斜坡系统在不同蓄水状态下不同层次的稳定性问题,结果表明斜坡系统不存在整体深层滑动的可能性;斜坡系统沿岩层界面或软弱层发生失稳的可能性较小,但赵树岭滑体和黄土坡滑体在表层滑体发生较大变形或失稳的条件下,可能导致滑坡整体复活;在水库调蓄过程中,部分滑坡表层堆积体产生变形破坏的可能性较大。另外,斜坡的表层改造可能会引起斜坡中层稳定性的恶化。     

Large slope deformations detection and monitoring along shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir,Argentina, based on a small-baseline InSAR approach

The Argentina National Road 7 that crosses the Andes Cordillera within the Mendoza province to connect Santiago de Chile and Buenos Aires is particularly affected by natural hazards requiring risk management. Integrated in a research plan that intends to produce landslide susceptibility maps, we aimed in this study to detect large slope movements by applying a satellite radar interferometric analysis using Envisat data, acquired between 2005 and 2010. We were finally able to identify two large slope deformations in sandstone and clay deposits along gentle shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir, with cumulated displacements higher than 25 mm in 5 years and towards the reservoir. There is also a body of evidences that these large slope deformations are actually influenced by the seasonal reservoir level variations. This study shows that very detailed information, such as surface displacements and above all water level variation, can be extracted from spaceborne remote sensing techniques; nevertheless, the limitations of InSAR for the present dataset are discussed here. Such analysis can then lead to further field investigations to understand more precisely the destabilising processes acting on these slope deformations.