Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region,Garhwal Himalayas,India

Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ^?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.     

Influences of the snow cover on landslide displacement in winter period: a case study in a heavy snowfall area of Japan

The displacement of a relatively small reactivated landslide in a snowy area in Japan was monitored over a long period. The displacement rate of the landslide, which was approximately of 20 mm d^?1 before the formation of snow cover, decelerated drastically during the continuous snow cover period every winter period. Possible causes included reduction in the amount of water that reached the ground surface (MR: meltwater and/or rainwater) and increase in snow load. Given that the actual displacement of the landslide was far below the predicted value based on the relationship between landslide displacement and MR immediately before the continuous snow cover period, the deceleration of landslide displacement was more likely attributable to the increase in snow load than to the reduction in MR. An investigation of the link between snow load and landslide displacement showed a negative logarithmic relationship. A dynamic analysis based on the limit equilibrium method showed that snow load increases the effective normal stress and the stability of a landslide in which the mean inclination angle of the slip surface is smaller than the internal friction angle. The stability of the actual slope was also analyzed by conducting soil tests on samples collected at the site and using the resultant parameters. The analysis also showed that the increase in snow load increases the safety factor and reduces the landslide displacement. The displacement of a relatively small landslide that has a shallow slip surface was found to be greatly influenced by snow cover.     

降雨诱发滑坡阶跃型变形的预测分析及应用

滑坡进入蠕动变形阶段之后,往往难以及时开展勘察治理工作,合理的临灾预警是有效减少滑坡灾害损失的重要手段。首先确定降雨诱发“阶跃型”滑坡的预警关键判据为前期降雨、当次降雨、位移速率,并引入“一个降雨过程”定义滑坡监测的降雨区间,将预警过程分为当次降雨和前期降雨+当次降雨两种模式。然后运用最小二乘法确定滑坡“阶跃”变形曲线上的“破坏拐点”和“稳定拐点”用以确定变形加速区间,以此求解前期降雨、当次降雨以及移速率阈值。最后以王家坡滑坡为例,设计了两种模式下的5级递进式分级预警模型。研究表明：（1）前期降雨与当次降雨组成“一个降雨过程”的时间间隔为7 d;（2）王家坡滑坡的位移速率阈值为20 mm/d;（3）前期降雨+当次降雨模式下王家坡滑坡的前期降雨、当次降雨阈值分别为10、15 mm,当次降雨模式下王家坡滑坡的降雨阈值为25 mm。     

Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola

This paper presents a case study of the Taipingshan landslide, which was triggered by Typhoon Saola in 2012. Taipingshan villa is one of the most famous scenic locations within the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area in northern Taiwan. Since the early 1990s, evidence of recent landslide activity appeared throughout the Taipingshan villa and included features such as tension cracks, ground settlement, and cracking in manmade structures. In response, a series of geological investigations and in-site/laboratory tests were conducted in 2010 to estimate slope stability and predict critical rainfall thresholds (event accumulated rainfall) for landslide activity. Results revealed that the critical rainfall threshold for the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area is 1765 mm. In 2012, that threshold was tested when Typhoon Saola brought tremendous rainfall to northern and eastern Taiwan and triggered activity along the main scarp of sliding mass B located near the History Exhibition Hall. According to in situ extensometer readings and on-site precipitation data, the extensometer was severed at an accumulated rainfall 1694 mm. Field monitoring data during the typhoon event are in good agreement with the rainfall threshold. These preliminary results suggest that the threshold may be useful for assessing the rainfall threshold of other landslides and a good reference for establishing early warning systems for landslides.     

Movement of deep-seated rainfall-induced landslide at Hsiaolin Village during Typhoon Morakot

This study analyzes the mechanism of the landslide event at Hsiaolin Village during Typhoon Morakot in 2009. This landslide event resulted in 400 deaths. The extremely high intensity and accumulative rainfall events may cause large-scale and complex landslide disasters. To study and understand a landslide event, a combination of field investigations and numerical models is used. The landslide area is determined by comparing topographic information from before and after the event. Physiographic parameters are determined from field investigations. These parameters are applied to a numerical model to simulate the landslide process. Due to the high intensity of the rainfall event, 1,675 mm during the 80 h before the landslide event, the water content of soil was rapidly increased causing a landslide to occur. According to the survivors, the total duration of the landslide run out was less than 3 min. Simulation results indicated that the total duration was about 150 s. After the landslide occurrence, the landslide mass separated into two parts by a spur at EL 590 in about 30 to 50 s. One part passed the spur in about 30 to 60 s. One part inundated the Hsiaolin Village and the other deposited at a local river channel and formed a landslide dam. The landslide dam had height between 50 and 60 m and length between 800 and 900 m. The simulation result shows that the proposed model can be used to evaluate the potential areas of landslides induced by extremely high intensity rainfall events.     

Long-traveling landslides in deep snow conditions induced by the 2011 Nagano Prefecture earthquake,Japan

Earthquakes in mountainous areas may produce many landslides that involve abundant snow, but few observations have been made of these hazardous phenomena. The 12 March 2011 north Nagano Prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.7) occurred in a mountainous part of Japan that typically has an annual snow cover of more than 2 m, and it induced many snowy landslides. Some of these traveled relatively long distances. We examined the snowy Tatsunokuchi landslide to reconstruct the landsliding processes over deep snow. We infer that the Tatsunokuchi landslide occurred by collapse of a rock debris mass of 5?×?10⁴ m³ that plunged into the abundant snow, forming a mixture of snow and rock debris, which then traveled on top of the snow. Later, the displaced mass included a large amount of snow which was pushed forward at the front and to the sides. The velocity of the landslide was estimated to be approximately 14 m/s. It appears that the displaced mass, having only a small proportion of rock debris, had a low enough density to travel easily on top of the snow. Our observations suggest that there was much liquid water at the base of the displaced mass shortly after the event. Our results suggest that landslides may damage wider areas than expected if they travel over deep snow.     

Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions (Asturias,NW Spain)

Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.     

Rainfall threshold determination for flash flood warning in mountainous catchments with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall pattern

Flash flood disaster is a prominent issue threatening public safety and social development throughout the world, especially in mountainous regions. Rainfall threshold is a widely accepted alternative to hydrological forecasting for flash flood warning due to the short response time and limited observations of flash flood events. However, determination of rainfall threshold is still very complicated due to multiple impact factors, particular for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall patterns. In this study, hydrological simulation approach (i.e., China Flash Flood-Hydrological Modeling System: CNFF-HMS) was adopted to capture the flash flood processes. Multiple scenarios were further designed with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall temporal patterns to determine the possible assemble of rainfall thresholds by driving the CNFF-HMS. Moreover, their effects on rainfall thresholds were investigated. Three mountainous catchments (Zhong, Balisi and Yu villages) in southern China were selected for case study. Results showed that the model performance of CNFF-HMS was very satisfactory for flash flood simulations in all these catchments, especially for multimodal flood events. Specifically, the relative errors of runoff and peak flow were within?±?20%, the error of time to peak flow was within?±?2 h and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency was greater than 0.90 for over 90% of the flash flood events. The rainfall thresholds varied between 93 and 334 mm at Zhong village, between 77 and 246 mm at Balisi village and between 111 and 420 mm at Yu village. Both antecedent soil moistures and rainfall temporal pattern significantly affected the variations of rainfall threshold. Rainfall threshold decreased by 8–38 and 0–42% as soil saturation increased from 0.20 to 0.50 and from 0.20 to 0.80, respectively. The effect of rainfall threshold was the minimum for the decreasing hyetograph (advanced pattern) and the maximum for the increasing hyetograph (delayed pattern), while it was similar for the design hyetograph and triangular hyetograph (intermediate patterns). Moreover, rainfall thresholds with short time spans were more suitable for early flood warning, especially in small rural catchments with humid climatic characteristics. This study was expected to provide insights into flash flood disaster forecasting and early warning in mountainous regions, and scientific references for the implementation of flash flood disaster prevention in China.     

滇西典型膨胀土滑坡稳定性分析

滇西山前地带广泛分布着一层具有弱膨胀性的粉质粘土,在降雨条件下常诱发滑坡灾害,成为当地一种典型的滑坡灾害类型。从土体非饱和特性出发,通过土体吸力测试,提出了基质吸力-含水量土水特征关系,确定了饱和含水量在37%左右,残余含水量约3.5%,进气值约190 kPa;三轴力学试验取得了非饱和土强度参数,土体吸力内摩擦角为4.3°;建立了饱和—非饱和渗流数值模型,对不同雨强条件下的滑坡失稳过程、机制进行了模拟。模拟结果为:强降雨引起滑坡稳定性明显降低的时间效应为2 d左右,雨强16 mm/d以上,持续降雨3 d后滑坡失稳滑动,雨强6 mm/d以下的降雨对滑坡稳定性没有明显影响。为该类型滑坡灾害的防治提供了重要科学依据。      

Geotechnical characterization and analysis of rainfall—induced 2009 landslide at Marappalam area of Nilgiris district,Tamil Nadu state,India

Landslides are frequently occurring natural hazards in Nilgiris district of Tamil Nadu, India, particularly during monsoon season. The present study describes the geotechnical characterization and analysis of rainfall-induced landslide that occurred at Marappalam location of Nilgiris district on November 10, 2009. The detailed investigation comprises mapping of landslide, topographical survey, field and laboratory investigations, characterization of soil and rock, and numerical analysis. Field study comprises borehole and geophysical investigations. Detailed laboratory investigation was performed to identify index and engineering properties of soil and rock. Based on the results obtained from field and laboratory investigations, the generalized subsoil profile of Marappalam slope has been plotted. The investigations revealed that loose and soft soil layer with low permeability and plasticity interspersed with boulders could be the main source of debris flow. Scanning electron microscopic analysis and x-ray diffraction analysis were performed to study the influence of weathering on slope failure. Failure mechanism of Marappalam 2009 landslide was identified from the numerical analysis performed using landslide simulation program LS-RAPID. The analysis revealed that the 5-day antecedent rainfall (303 mm) and intense rainfall on 10th November 2009 (405 mm) saturate the slope due to infiltration of rainwater. This leads to a decrease in the matric suction and subsequent development of positive pore water pressure, which in turn reduces the shear resistance of the soil along with shear displacement, and resulted in a progressive failure.     

Precursors of instability in a natural slope due to rainfall: a full-scale experiment

A full-scale landslide-triggering experiment was conducted on a natural sandy slope subjected to an artificial rainfall event, which resulted in mobilisation of 130 m³ of soil mass. Novel slope deformation sensors (SDSs) were applied to monitor the subsurface pre-failure movements and the precursors of the artificially triggered landslide. These fully automated sensors are more flexible than the conventional inclinometers by several orders of magnitude and therefore are able to detect fine movements (<?1 mm) of the soil mass reliably. Data from high-frequency measurements of the external bending work, indicating the transmitted energy from the surrounding soil to these sensors, pore water pressure at various depths, horizontal soil pressure and advanced surface monitoring techniques, contributed to an integrated analysis of the processes that led to triggering of the landslide. Precursors of movements were detected before the failure using the horizontal earth pressure measurements, as well as surface and subsurface movement records. The measurements showed accelerating increases of the horizontal earth pressure in the compression zone of the unstable area and external bending work applied to the slope deformation sensors. These data are compared to the pore water pressure and volumetric water content changes leading to failure.     

How to assess landslide activity and intensity with Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI): the PSI-based matrix approach

We provide a step-by-step analysis and discussion of the ‘PSI-based matrix approach’, a methodology employing ground deformation velocities derived through Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) for the assessment of the state of activity and intensity of extremely to very slow landslides. Two matrices based on PSI data are designed respectively for landslides already mapped in preexisting inventories and for newly identified phenomena. Conversely, a unique intensity scale is proposed indiscriminately for both. Major influencing factors of the approach are brought to light by the application in the 14 km² area of Verbicaro, in Northern Calabria (Italy). These include lack of PSI data within the landslide boundaries, temporal coverage of the available estimates, and need of field checks as well as the operative procedures to set the activity and intensity thresholds. For the area of Verbicaro, we exploit 1992–2011 PSI data from ERS1/2 and RADARSAT1/2 satellites, projecting them along the maximum slope directions. An activity threshold of ±5 mm/year is determined by applying the average projection factor of local slopes to the PSI data precision. The intensity threshold between extremely and very slow phenomena (16 mm/year) is reduced by ~20 % to account for temporal and spatial averages being applied to attribute representative velocities to each landslide. The methodology allows assessing the state of activity and the intensity for 13 of the 24 landslides premapped in the 2007 inventory and for two newly identified phenomena. Current limitations due to characteristics and spatial coverage of PSI data are critically tackled within the discussion, jointly with respective implications.     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Transient seepage in unsaturated soil slope is one of the significant triggering factors in rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall infiltration leads to the decrease in stabilizing effect because of increased positive pore-water pressures. SEEP/W and SLOPE/W used in this study have been widely employed to describe frameworks for understanding transient seepage in soil slope, and to perform slope stability analyses, respectively. The study area is in Sichon District in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, southern Thailand. A landslide there was investigated by modeling the process of rainfall infiltration under positive and negative pore-water pressures and their effects on slope stability. GIS (Geographic Information System) and geotechnical laboratory results were used as input parameters. The van Genuchten’s soil water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function were used to estimate surface infiltration rates. An average rainfall was derived from 30-year monthly rainfall data between 1981 and 2011 in this area reported by the Thailand Royal Irrigation Department. For transient condition, finite element analysis in SEEP/W was employed to model fluctuations in pore-water pressure during a rainfall, using the computed water infiltration rates as surface boundary conditions. SLOPE/W employing Bishop simplified method was then carried out to compute their factors of safety, and antecedent precipitation indices (API) calculated. Heterogeneous slope at the site became unstable at an average critical API (API_cr) of 380 mm, agreeing well with the actual value of 388 mm.     

Hydrologic conditions responsible for triggering the Sto e landslide, Slovenia

In two events, on November 15 and 17, 2000, near the Mangart Mountain (2679 m a.s.l.), NW Slovenia, two translational landslides (debris flow slides) with a total volume of more than 1.5 million m³ occurred on the Sto e slope composed of morainic material filled with silt fraction. The first landslide was associated with a dry and the second landslide with a wet debris-flow, respectively. The rain gauging station in the village of Log pod Mangartom recorded 1638.4 mm of rainfall (more than 60% of the average annual precipitation) in the 48 days before the events (rainfall intensity of 1.42 mm/h in 1152 h). The recorded rainfall depth has a recurrence interval of more than 100 years. Other recorded rainfall depths of shorter duration (481.6 mm in 7 days, 174.0 mm in 24 h, 70 mm in 1 h) have recurrence intervals of much less than 100 years. A hydrological analysis of the event showed that the increase in runoff coefficients during the wet period in autumn 2000 before the landslide was as high as two- to threefold. An analysis using natural isotopes of δ¹⁸O and tritium of water samples from the Sto e landslide area has shown permanent but slow exfiltration of underground waters from a reservoir in the slope. In the case of low-intensity and long-duration rainfall in autumn 2000, relatively low permeable (10⁻⁷ m/s) morainic material was nearly saturated but remained stable (average porosity 21%, water content 20%, liquid limit 25%) until high artesian pressures up to 100 m developed in the slope by slow exfiltration from the relatively high permeable (10⁻⁵ m/s) massive dolomite. The Sto e landslide (two debris flow slides) was triggered by high artesian pressures built in the slope after long-duration rainfall. The devastating debris-flows formed from the landslide masses by infiltration of rainfall and surface runoff into the landslide masses and by their liquefaction.     

Managing crop stubble during fallow period for soil water conservation: field experiment and modelling

In the arid and semi-arid environments where the rainfall is limited and variable, fallow period soil moisture conservation using stubble is one of the ways of increasing the soil moisture required for crop sowing and development. However, the effectiveness of moisture conservation using stubble depends on the paddock management, soil water content, and rainfall characteristics. To assess the effect of stubble rate and amount of rainfall on the soil moisture conservation, a two-season field experiment was conducted using four stubble rates (0, 2, 4, 6 t/ha) and two water supply amounts. The soil water dynamics was also analysed using a validated Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM). In the relatively wet summer season with a high initial soil water content, the amount of water stored in the 2, 4, and 6 t/ha stubble rate treatment plots was higher than that of the bare plots by 10.4, 15.9, and 17.8 mm, respectively. However, in the summer season with a relatively high amount of in-season water input and low initial soil water content, the soil water storage was increased by 29.4, 35.6, and 43.0 mm, respectively. Comparing the results of the two seasons, the highest increase was observed for the 2 t/ha stubble rate. The amount of conserved soil moisture was found to be the highest when the soil profile water content at the start of the summer-fallow period is low and the amount of rain during the summer season is high. The good agreement between the measured and APSIM-simulated soil water contents (R ² = 0.812), indicates that the model can be used to assess the soil water dynamics under a fallow condition. The APSIM-simulated soil water balance using the weather data of the past 100 years indicated that in a year with low start-of-fallow period soil water content, a 6 t/ha stubble rate can increase the end-of-fallow period soil moisture by up to 60 %.     

Volume,gravitational potential energy reduction,and regional centroid position change in the wake of landslides triggered by the 14 April 2010 Yushu earthquake of China

In recent years, earthquake-triggered landslides have attracted much attention in the scientific community as a main form of seismic ground response. However, little work has been performed concerning the volume and gravitational potential energy reduction of earthquake-triggered landslides and their severe effect on landscape change. This paper presents a quantitative study on the volume, gravitational potential energy reduction, and change in landscape related to landslides triggered by the 14 April 2010 Yushu earthquake. At least 2,036 landslides were triggered by the earthquake. A total landslide scar area of 1.194 km² was delineated from the visual interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images and was supported by selected field checking. In this paper, we focus on possible answers to the following five questions: (1) What is the total volume of the 2,036 landslides triggered by the earthquake, and what is the average landslide erosion thickness in the earthquake-stricken area? (2) What are the elevations of all landslide materials in relation to pre- and post-landsliding? (3) How much was the gravitational potential energy reduced due to the sliding of these landslide materials? (4) What is the average elevation change caused by these landslides in the study area? (5) What is the vertical change of the regional centroid position above sea level, as induced by these landslides? It is concluded that the total volume of the 2,036 landslides is 2.9399?×?10⁶ m³. The landslide erosion thickness throughout the study area is 2.02 mm. The materials of these landslides moved from an elevation of 4,145.243 to 4,104.697 m, resulting in a decreased distance of 40.546 m. The gravitational potential energy reduction related to the landslides triggered by the earthquake was 2.9213?×?10¹² J. The average regional elevation of the study area is 4,427.160 m, a value consistent with the assumption that the accumulated materials were remained in situ. This value changes from 4,427.160 to 4,427.158 m with all landslide materials moved out of the study area, resulting in a reduction in elevation of 2 mm. Based on the assumption that all landslide materials moved out of the study area, the elevations of the centroid of the study area’s crust changed from 2,222.45967 to 2,222.45867 m, which means the centroid value decreased by 1 mm. This value is 0.001 mm when assuming that the materials were remained in situ, which is almost negligible, compared with the situation of “all landslide materials moved out of the study area.”     

Hydraulic Conductivity of Compacted Granite Residual Soil Mixed with Palm Oil Fuel Ash in Landfill Application

Laboratory tests were carried out on compacted granite residual soil treated with 0 to 15% Palm Oil Fuel Ash (POFA), with a view to evaluate its hydraulic conductivity for its application in landfilling. The Soil–POFA mixtures were compacted using both Standard and Modified Proctors compactive efforts at 2% dry of Optimum Moulding water Content (?2%), at Optimum Moulding water Content (0%), at 2 and 4% on the wet side of Optimum Moulding water Content (+2 and +4%). The samples were permeated with water and the effect of moulding water content; compactive effort and POFA content were examined. The samples that met the minimum threshold of 1 × 10^?9 m/s were used in plotting the acceptable zones criterion at various POFA mixtures. The results gave indications of reduction in the hydraulic conductivity values, with increase in compactive efforts, moulding water content and POFA content up to about 10%. This was the most suitable soil–POFA mixture for the hydraulic application.     

滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述

本文从降雨临界值研究、监测技术方法、区域性监测预警系统三个方面对滑坡监测预警的国内外研究现状进行了回顾和总结。首先归纳了国内外28个国家或地区的滑坡降雨临界值及统计方法,三个模型——日降雨量模型、前期降雨量模型和前期土体含水状态模型,基本概括了当前降雨诱发滑坡临界值的确定方法;但由于降雨入渗触发滑坡的复杂性,不同机理的滑坡"需要"不同的降雨临界值;目前的研究趋势是对雨量雨强雨时—土体渗流场动态变化—土体抗剪强度变化的耦合关系进行研究。按监测对象的不同,滑坡监测可分为四大类,即位移监测、物理场监测、地下水监测和外部诱发因素监测;按监测手段的不同,则可分为人工监测、简易监测、专业监测三大类;目前国内外在滑坡监测技术、方法、手段上并无太大差距,专业仪器已成为常规设备,只是由于价格因素得不到普及;一些新技术如InSAR、三维激光扫描等能很快应用到滑坡监测领域;监测数据的采集和传输也都实现了自动化和远程化;监测和预警系统有向Web—GIS发展的趋势。利用一个地区的滑坡易发区划或危险区划,结合降雨临界值,可以设定不同的预警级别,在区内布设一定数量的雨量站,监测雨量加上预报雨量,就可进行滑坡预警预报,国内外的区域性降雨型滑坡监测预警大体都是这个思路和做法,该方法在对公众进行警示方面起到了良好效果,但由于预警的范围太大,在具体的单点防治上,难以做到有效。我国在近10年开展了大量的监测预警工作,并取得了丰硕的成果,但根据统计数据,其成功预警率却并不理想,这一方面表现在成功预警实例中专业预警所占比例过低,另一方面同时表现在发生的大量的地质灾害在已有的预警点之外。制约目前工作有效性的主要问题是滑坡隐患点的排查和识别问题,因为只有识别出了隐患点才能进行下一步的监测和预警,它是一切工作的基础。而解决这一问题的重要途径是分析区域上的滑坡发育规律,找到有效的隐患点识别技术方法,以及引进风险管理的概念,进行监测资源的合理分配和有效预警。     

湿地“淹埋深-历时-频率”阈值研究的理论和方法

针对"淹埋深-历时-频率"(S, D, F)阈值研究存在的问题,根据土壤学、植物生态学、系统论、地理系统学说以及反演理论等的相关原理,系统分析了湿地(S, D, F)阈值确定的理论和方法。结果表明:在正常情况下,水饱和至地表的最大地下水埋深、湿地植物主要根系分布层下限和沉水植物分布下界淹水深分别是湿地土壤上界、湿地植被上界和湿地下界的S阈值;D阈值只能通过湿地土壤或湿地植被边界界定在水位过程线上反演,稳定湿地边界的D阈值应取与50%频率值对应的D值或D值的多年平均值,波动湿地边界的D阈值是常数;"非正常情况下"湿地的D阈值应参照湿地水文地貌分类的同一区域子类中"正常情况下"的湿地的D阈值;检验D阈值科学性的标准是利用D阈值确定的湿地水文边界必须与湿地土壤边界或湿地植被边界耦合。     

Relationships between natural terrain landslide magnitudes and triggering rainfall based on a large landslide inventory in Hong Kong

Rain-induced landslides are recognized as one of the most catastrophic hazards on hilly terrains. To develop strategies for landslide risk assessment and management, it is necessary to estimate not only the rainfall threshold for the initiation of landslides, but also the likely magnitudes of landslides triggered by a storm of a given intensity. In this study, the frequency distributions of both open hillside landslides and channelized debris flows in Hong Kong are established on the basis of the Enhanced Natural Terrain Landslide Inventory (ENTLI) with 19,763 records in Hong Kong up to 2013. The landslide magnitudes are measured in terms of the number, scar area, volume, or density of landslides. The mean values of the scar areas and volumes are 55.2 m² and 102.0 m³, respectively, for the open hillside landslides and 91.3 m² and 166.5 m³, respectively, for the channelized debris flows. Empirical correlations between the numbers, scar areas, and volumes of hillside landslides or channelized debris flows and the maximum rolling rainfall intensities of different periods have been derived. The maximum rolling 4- to 24-h rainfall amounts provide better predictions compared with those with the maximum rolling 1-h rainfall. Maximum rolling rainfall intensity-duration thresholds identifying the likely rainfall conditions that yield natural terrain landslides or debris flows of different magnitudes are also proposed. The initiation rainfall thresholds are identified as 75, 90, 100, 120, 150, 180, and 200 mm for the maximum rolling 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 8-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, respectively.