Susceptibility assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical basins and mountainous terrains

Natural Hazards - This study presents the analyses and results of the implementation of the SHALSTAB model to study landslides caused by rainfall that occurred on September 21, 1990, in a basin of...     

Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model

Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data, including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km². The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales.     

Spatio-temporal estimation of shallow landslide hazard triggered by rainfall using a three-dimensional model

A shallow landslide triggered by rainfall can be forecast in real-time by modeling the relationship between rainfall infiltration and decrease of slope stability. This paper describes a promising approach that combines an improved three-dimensional slope stability model with an approximate method based on the Green and Ampt model, to estimate the time–space distribution of shallow landslide hazards. Once a forecast of rainfall intensity and slope stability-related data, e.g., terrain and geology data, are acquired, this approach is shown to have the ability to estimate the variation of slope stability of a wide natural area during rainfall and to identify the location of potential failure surfaces. The effectiveness of the estimation procedures described has been tested by comparison with a one-dimensional method and by application to a landslide-prone area in Japan.     

A probabilistic model for evaluating the reliability of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides based on uncertainties in rainfall characteristics and soil properties

Natural Hazards - This study aims to develop a probabilistic rainfall threshold estimation model for shallow landslides (PRTE_LS) in order to quantify its reliability while being affected by...     

Comparing the performance of TRIGRS and TiVaSS in spatial and temporal prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides

This study compares the performance of transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability (TRIGRS) model and time-variant slope stability (TiVaSS) model in the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. TRIGRS employs one-dimensional (1-D) subsurface flow to simulate the infiltration rate, whereas a three-dimensional (3-D) model is utilized in TiVaSS. The former has been widely used in landslide modeling, while the latter was developed only recently. Both programs are used for the spatiotemporal prediction of shallow landslides caused by rainfall. This study uses the July 2011 landslide event that occurred in Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, Korea, for validation. The performance of the two programs is evaluated by comparison with data of the actual landslides in both location and timing by using a landslide ratio for each factor of safety class (\({\text{LR}}_{\text{class}}\) index), which was developed for addressing point-like landslide locations. Moreover, the influence of surface flow on landslide initiation is assessed. The results show that the shallow landslides predicted by the two models are highly consistent with those of the observed sliding sites, although the performance of TiVaSS is slightly better. Overland flow affects the buildup of the pressure head and reduces the slope stability, although this influence was not significant in this case. A slight increase in the predicted unstable area from 19.30 to 19.93% was recorded when the overland flow was considered. It is concluded that both models are suitable for application in the study area. However, although it is a well-established model requiring less input data and shorter run times, TRIGRS produces less accurate results.     

浅层滑坡诱发沟谷泥石流的地形和降雨条件

2011年贵州省望谟县打易镇的大范围浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷泥石流提供了研究这类泥石流地形和降雨条件的机会。在地质条件一致和小区域内的降雨条件基本一致的情况下,地形条件就是这些泥石流暴发与否的唯一决定因素。对比一些重要的地形因素与泥石流暴发的关系,得出了由流域面积、沟床纵比降和25°~45°山坡坡度面积比组成的泥石流综合地形因子T。在地形因子T的基础上,研究获得了由前期降雨量、1 h降雨强度、年平均降雨量等组成的降雨因子R。由地形因子T和降雨因子R获得的临界条件P可以判断该区域的泥石流暴发。由于研究工作部分基于泥石流的形成机理,研究成果还可用于其他区域的泥石流形成预测,为泥石流的预测预报提供了一个较好的方法。     

The influence of land use/land cover variability and rainfall intensity in triggering landslides: a back-analysis study via physically based models

Natural Hazards - The objective of this study was to use physically based models to carry out a back-analysis of the set of factors that may have influenced slope instability and the consequent...     

Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture, Japan

On October 23, 2004, a series of powerful earthquakes with a maximum M _w = 6.6 located near the western coast of northern Honshu struck parts of northern Japan, particularly Niigata Prefecture; these earthquakes were known as the Chuetsu event. Thousands of landslides, as a secondary geotechnical hazard associated with these earthquakes, were triggered over a broad area; these landslides were of almost all types. The purpose of this study was to detect correlations between landslide occurrence with geologic and geomorphologic conditions, slope geometry, and earthquake parameters using two indexes based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the study area, the landslide–area ratio (LAR), which is defined as the percentage of the area affected by landslides, was 2.9%, and the landslide concentration (LC), the number of landslides per square kilometer, was 4.4 landslides/km², which is much more than other reported cases of seismic activity with the same magnitude. This was possibly due to heavy rainfall just before the Chuetsu earthquakes. Statistical analyses show that LAR has a positive correlation with slope steepness and distance from the epicenter, while LC is inversely correlated with distance from the epicenter. The Wanazu Formation had the most concentrated landslide activity, followed by the Kawaguchi, Ushigakubi, Shiroiwa and Oyama Formations, although the Wanazu Formation occupied only 4.5% of the total area of geological units. With 8.2% of the area affected by seismic landslides, the Kawaguchi Formation had the highest LAR. It was followed by the Shiroiwa, Ushigakubi and Wanazu Formations with LAR ranging from 4.6% to 6.0%. For lots of geological subunits, landslides are more frequent in a range of slope angles between 15° and 40°. The susceptibility to landsliding of each geologic unit was thus evaluated to correlate with slope steepness. It was also noted that the effects of the earthquakes were made far worse by antecedent rainfall conditions induced by a␣typhoon, and further research emphasizing the role of antecedent rainfall was discussed.     

Initiation conditions of shallow landslides in two man-made forests and back estimation of the possible rainfall threshold

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows are one of the most common erosion process and primary channel initiation mechanisms in many steep landscapes. Their initiation conditions are physically controlled by the soil properties and topographically influenced by the competition between area- (A) and slope-dependent (S) sediment transport process. In this work, the A-S relationship of landslides in two forests was compared with respect to the physical properties of soil and plant roots. The results reveal that landslides in the Pinus tabuleaformis forest commonly have larger surface- and contributing area, deeper failure plane and gentler slope gradient than those in the Larix Kaemphferi forest. The saturated hydraulic conductivity in the Pinus tabuleaformis forest is higher and strongly correlates to plant root biomass. The effective cohesion and inner frictional angle of soil mass in the two forests are similar. Faster saturated hydraulic conductivity may lead to the higher upslope contributing area of landslides in the the Pinus tabuleaformis forest. A combination of finite-slope model and precipitation interception model reveals that landslides in the Pinus tabuleaformis forest require higher rainfall amount that those in the Larix Kaemphferi forest. Last but not least, this work provides a clue that strong root network and high saturated hydraulic conductivity may promote the A-S condition.

     

Comparison between the two triggered landslides in Mid-Niigata, Japan by July 13 heavy rainfall and October 23 intensive earthquakes in 2004

On July 13, 2004, heavy rainfalls because of the intensive activities of the rain front occurred in the Mid-Niigata Region, Japan. They were as much as 400 mm in 24 h, bringing about serious flooding by breaking the river banks. The heavy rainfalls also triggered more than 3,500 landslides. Three months later, the southern region of Mid-Niigata was attacked by an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 on the Richter scale on October 23, 2004. The main earthquakes were followed by intensive aftershocks, which continued until December 2004. By these earthquakes, variable landslides of more than 4,400 also occurred in the hilly and mountainous areas. Namely, different triggers brought about the variable landslides in the hilly mountains whose features are very similar in geological and geomorphological points of view. Therefore, these two events are very useful for clearing the difference in features of the landslides between the two. We have been researching on both landslides in the field just after both occurred and later analyzing air photographs using the geographic information system (GIS). In this paper, we describe the comparison in the distribution features using GIS analytical data between the heavy rainfall-induced and the intensive earthquake-induced landslides.     

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides: a model for the triggering mechanism of some case studies in Northern Italy

The article relates the main findings of a recent investigation aimed at modeling the triggering of shallow landslides. A simplified model for assessing the safety factor of potentially unstable slopes, directly related with rainfall trends, was developed. Based on the geometric characteristics of the slope, the geotechnical properties, and strength parameters of the soil, the model makes it possible to define a safety factor of a slope as a function of time. The model is based on the limit equilibrium method and takes into account the seepage of underground water. The safety factor is, in turn, related to the seasonal rainfall. The model was applied on a local scale to some historical cases which had occurred recently in Northern Italy. The paper shows how the results of the application of the model on a local scale achieve a good agreement between the instability condition and the real date of each considered event.     

A distributed runoff model for the mountainous region of the Heihe River Basin (China) based on the spatial modeling environment (SME) I: model structure and equations

A shortage of water has limited the socio-economic development of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China and has led to many ecological and economic problems. Only the development and application of integration tools can effectively represent the functionality of the watershed and aid in strategic decision making. In the framework of SME, modular and hierarchical model building can simplify the research work. According to the main ideas and key processes commonly used in distributed hydrological models, and combined with the spatial characteristics of the mountainous region of the Heihe River Basin, a unit hydrological model was developed using stella, which was an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling, and an algorithm for spatial distribution in SME was introduced. This paper describes only the model structure and basic equations, whereas in the next paper, model calibration results using the data measured at meteorological stations, together with land use data and soil data, will be further introduced.     

Influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on rainfall induced landslides: a case study of sandstone slope in Japan

Rainfall-induced landslides frequently occur in humid temperate regions worldwide. Research activity in understanding the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides has recently focused on the probability of slope failure involving non-homogeneous soil profiles. This paper presents probabilistic analyses to assess the stability of unsaturated soil slope under rainfall. The influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure is conducted by means of a series of seepage and stability analyses of an infinite slope based on random fields. A case study of shallow failure located on sandstone slopes in Japan is used to verify the analysis framework. The results confirm that a probabilistic analysis can be efficiently used to qualify various locations of failure surface caused by spatial variability of soil shear strength for a shallow infinite slope failure due to rainfall.     

Erratum to: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.     

基于FloodArea模型的小流域山洪灾害临界雨量阈值初探

针对缺乏水位流量资料的山区小流域地区山洪临界雨量难以确定的问题,以四川省南江河上游流域作为研究区域,基于德国Geomer公司开发的二维非恒定流水动力模型"FloodArea ",利用流域逐时降雨资料,地形高程数据以及土地利用数据,重现南江" 6·28"山洪暴发的动态演进过程,对模拟得到的逐时淹没深度与1~24 h累积流域面雨量求相关,选取预警点淹没深度与累积面雨量的相关系数最高的时效作为预警点致灾临界雨量阈值的预报时效,通过建立预警点淹没深度与预报时效累积面雨量的回归方程,从而获取预警点不同风险等级的临界雨量阈值。结果表明：FloodArea模型能够较好地呈现出此次典型山洪的暴发过程,通过对不同地势预警点临界雨量阈值的对比,最终选取地势较低,位于河流汇口地带、风险等级较高的上两九义校作为南江河上游流域山洪风险预警点。     

Geological and geomorphological characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake in Japan

The 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.8) triggered more than one thousand landslides in the Miocene to Quaternary sedimentary rocks in Japan. The most common landslides were shallow disrupted landslides on steep slopes, which has been common in many previous disastrous earthquakes in the world. The Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake also triggered more than one hundred deep landslides, providing valuable information on the conditions for their occurrence. A field investigation and the interpretation of aerial photographs taken before and after the earthquake suggest that reactivation of existing landslides and undercutting of slopes are the most important factors for deep landslides to be triggered by earthquakes. In addition, planar sliding surfaces seem to be essential for the generation of catastrophic landslides triggered by this earthquake. Planar bedding–parallel sliding surfaces were formed at the boundary between the overlying permeable sandstone and underlying siltstone or along the bedding planes of alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone. Sliding surfaces along the slope-parallel oxidation front were formed in the area of black mudstone. New landslides (rockslide-avalanches) occurred with the sliding surfaces in a several-cm thick tuff interbedded in siltstone. One rockslide-avalanche occurred on a slope where buckling deformation preceded the earthquake. Gentle valley bottom sediments were mobilized in many locations, probably because they were saturated and partial liquefaction had occurred due to the earthquake shaking.     

陇东陕甘边界降雨水毁灾情调查与启示

黄土地区降雨导致的水毁灾害常有发生,造成严重的工程灾害和人员伤亡。对已有水毁灾害的调查和成因分析,可为防治区灾害提供经验。2021年8月中旬至10月初,在陇东陕甘边界黄土地区持续了50多天降雨,引发了大量水毁灾害,导致G211国道中断两周。文中介绍了这次降雨在G211沿线及其附近的村镇引起水毁灾害的现场调查情况,发生在村镇的水毁灾害有黄土窑洞塌陷、土质房屋和夯土围墙倒塌;发生在道路上的水毁灾害有路基外缘沉陷开裂,路基内侧边坡崩塌、斜坡浅层滑移及滑坡泥流等地质灾害。这些灾害规模小、影响范围不大;但数量多、致灾性较为普遍。文章还调查了植被对黄土斜坡稳定性的有利和不利影响。针对水毁灾害,分析其原因并提出了村镇和道路建设中针对此类水毁灾害的预防措施。