Numerical modeling of the June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi landslide generated impulse waves in Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Subaerial landslides falling into confined water bodies often generate impulsive waves. Damaging landslide tsunamis in Three Gorges Reservoir, China, have struck several times in the last 15 years. On June 24, 2015, a 23?×?10⁴ m³ slope failure occurred on the east bank of the Daning River opposite Wushan Town. The sliding mass intruded into the Three Gorges Reservoir and initiated a reservoir tsunami that resulted in two deaths and significant damage to shipping facilities. A post-event survey revealed the landslide geometry and wave run-up distribution, while an eyewitness video captured most of the landslide motion. Employing these firm constraints, we applied the Tsunami Squares method to simulate the 2015 Hongyanzi landslide and tsunami. The simulation revealed that the landslide experienced a progressive failure in the first few seconds and impacted the water with a maximum velocity of ~?16 m/s. The initial wave propagated to the opposite shore in an arch shape, and the water surface reached a maximum amplitude of ~?11 m near the landslide. Wave amplitude-time curves at four points on the river cross section show that the initial wave reached Wushan town in about 50 s with an average wave velocity of ~?30 m/s. The maximum wave run-ups on the shoreline opposite the landslide are around 6 m and attenuate to less than 1 m beyond 2-km distance. The landslide simulation matches the observed geological profile and the eyewitness video, and the numerical results coincide with the observed wave run-up heights. Nearly 80% of landslide energy is lost due to frictional resistances, but the remaining fraction imparted to the tsunami carried catastrophic consequences to a large region. The numerical results emphasize the efficiency and accuracy of Tsunami Squares method for a “Quick Look” simulation of a potential landslide.     

Comprehensive analyses of the initiation and landslide-generated wave processes of the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Reservoir landslides pose a great threat to shipping safety, human lives and properties, and the operation of the hydropower station. In this paper, the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir is considered as an example to study the initiation mechanism and landslide-generated wave process of a reservoir landslide. The finite difference method and limit equilibrium analysis are used to analyze the deformation and failure characteristics of the Hongyanzi slope. Simulation results show that a large deformation (about 358 mm) happens in the shallow deposits under intermittent rainfall condition, and the slope is in a limit state. At the same time, continuous rapid drawdown of the water level (about ?0.55 m/day during 8–24 June 2015) reduced the support and accelerated the drainage of the water for the bank slope. A coupling effect of intermittent rainfall and rapid drawdown of the water level was the triggering factor of the 24 June Hongyanzi landslide. Landslide-generated wave process was simulated using a fluid–solid coupling method by integrating the general moving object collision model. Simulation results show that the landslide-generated wave is dominated by the impulse wave, which is generated by sliding masses entering the river with high speed. The maximum wave height is about 5.90 m, and the wave would decay gradually as it spreads because of friction and energy dissipation. To prevent reservoir landslides, the speed for the rising or drawdown of the water level should be controlled, and most importantly, rapid drawdown should be avoided.     

A physical similarity model of an impulsive wave generated by Gongjiafang landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Landslide-related impulse waves are catastrophic but accidental, so limited data on field measurements are available; scaled physical experiment is therefore a functional method to simulate and analyze this phenomenon. A large-scale physical Froude-similar model to produce impulse waves was constructed based on the Chinese Gongjiafang landslide, which occurred on the main stream of Three Gorges after the impounding in the reservoir in China. With a scale of 1:200, the model had the dimensions of 24, 8, and 1.3 m. Four water levels, 145, 156, 172.8, and 175 m, were modeled for the experiments, and marble coarse sands were used to imitate the actual cataclastic rock mass. Wave height gauges, high-speed cameras, and run-up measuring instruments were used to monitor wave fluctuations in the model. Among the experiments, the ones modeled using a water level of 172.8 m best confirmed the actual conditions in the Gongjiafang landslide, representing a good validation of the experiments. This study obtained, for the first time, specific data on the reproduced impulse waves’ convergence and superposition during propagation, and of the energy change between impulse waves and reflected waves. The test data describe a rapid decaying and gradual decaying rule for the wave heights and run-ups. The Froude-similar experiments presented in this article help us to understand the whole procedure of impulsive wave generated by cataclastic rock mass failure, and the results acquired contribute to studies of impulse waves caused by similar bank destabilizations worldwide.     

Mechanism of the Anlesi landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Many gentle dip translational rock slides have taken place in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. In order to study the mechanism of these translational rock slides, the authors use the Anlesi landslide as a typical case study to investigate in detail. Field investigations show that the slip zones of the Anlesi landslide were formed from a white mudstone in Jurassic red strata. X-ray diffraction and infrared ray analysis showed that the main mineral components of the slip zones are montmorillonite, illite, feldspar and quartz. Laboratory tests indicate that the slip zone soils are silty clay, of medium-swelling potential, the shear strength decreasing significantly as the slip zone attracts water and saturates.The main factors contributing to the Anlesi landslide are recent tectonic activity, incompetent beds, and intensive rainfall. Recent tectonic activity had caused shear failure along the incompetent beds, and joints within the sandstone. With the effect of intensive rainfall, water percolates to the incompetent beds along tectonic fissures, resulting in swelling of the soil material and high groundwater pressures within fissures in the strata. As a consequence, the Anlesi slope is prone to slide along these incompetent beds.Flac3D software was used to simulate the mechanism of the Anlesi landslide considering the rheological properties of soil and rock. The simulation results demonstrate that the stress, displacement and failure area changes with simulated creep time. The maximum displacement in the X direction reaches 7.59 m after 200-year simulated creep. Therefore, the mechanism of the Anlesi landslide can be illustrated considering the rheological properties of Jurassic red strata.     

The July 14, 2003 Qianjiangping landslide,Three Gorges Reservoir,China

The Qianjiangping landslide occurred after the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in July 2003. Field investigation revealed that failure occurred when the reservoir reached 135 m, but the stability of the affected slope was already reduced by pre-existing bedding-plane shears, quarrying of mudstone from the landslide toe, and previous heavy rain. A possible explanation of the rapid and long runout mechanism of the landslide is that movement on a bedding-plane shear ruptured the calcite cement and rapidly reduced the sandstone strength to residual shear strength.     

Mechanism and failure process of Qianjiangping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

The Qianjiangping landslide is a large planar rock slide which occurred in July 14, 2003 shortly after the water level reached 135 m in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. The landslide destroyed 4 factories and 129 houses, took 24 lives, and made 1,200 people homeless. Field investigation shows that the contributing factors for the landslide are the geological structure of the slope, the previous surface of rupture, the water level rise, and continuous rainfall. In order to reveal the mechanism and failure process of the landslide, numerical simulation was conducted on Qianjiangping slope before sliding. Based on the characteristics and the engineering conditions of the landslide, the topography and the geological profiles of Qianjiangping slope before sliding is reconstructed. The seepage field of Qianjiangping slope before sliding was simulated with the Geostudio software. The results show that ground water table rises and bends to the slope during the rise of water level, and the slope surface becomes partially saturated within the period of continuous rainfall. Using the ground water table obtained above, the failure process of Qianjiangping slope is simulated with the Flac3D software. The results demonstrate that the shear strain increment, displacement, and shear failure area of the slope increased greatly after the water level rose and continuous rained, and the landslide was triggered by the combined effect both of water level rise and continuous rainfall. The development of shear strain increment, displacement, and shear failure area of the slope shows that the landslide was retrogressive in the lower part of the slope and progressive in the upper part of the slope.     

三峡库区千将坪滑坡地质力学模型研究

三峡水库初次蓄水不久,千将坪即发生了特大型滑坡。通过对千将坪滑坡滑动区与影响区的勘察试验及对比研究,查明了千将坪滑坡的物质组成、结构及滑坡边界条件,分析了滑坡影响因素及其机制,建立了千将坪滑坡的地质力学模型。分析表明,千将坪滑坡为三峡水库水位上升与降雨联合诱发的水库新生型深层岩质滑坡,水库蓄水起主要和关键作用。     

Numerical study of the runout behavior of the Kamenziwan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir region,China

Landslides - The evaluation of landslide runout behavior plays a vital role in the risk assessment of landslides. In this study, the runout behavior of a landslide that occurred on December 10,...     

Establishing a monitoring network for an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

A methodology for monitoring system of an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China is introduced. Currently, based on landslide geological classification, the monitoring regions and methods which include types of monitoring instruments, placement and calibration precision of instruments, and appropriate periods for instrumental placement is confirmed. To optimize the monitoring system, sensitivity analysis of displacements and the water table in landslides affected by reservoir surface fluctuation is completed to determine the layout of the monitoring cross sections and the monitoring points. As a case study, the behavior of displacements and the potential fluctuation of the water table in the Shiliushubao landslide, produced by the gradual water impoundment at Three Gorges Reservoir, has been simulated using 3D finite element method analysis. The sensitivity analysis of Shiliushubao landslide is investigated by the fuzzy set evaluation method. As a result, the monitoring network of Shiliushubao landslide is established.     

三峡库区千将坪滑坡失稳探讨

千将坪滑坡是三峡水库二期蓄水到139m高程水位期问发生的特大型滑坡,也是三峡库区近年来发生的规模较大的滑坡,受到了多方面的关注.滑体物质组成包括上部为残坡积粘土夹碎石和老滑坡堆积体、下部为沙镇溪组泥质粉砂岩两部分,沿基岩软层顺层下滑.根据滑动特征,可划分为顺层滑动、切层剪出以及滑覆堵江和过江反冲区三个区.本文重点研究了降雨、水库蓄水以及组合因素下滑坡稳定性变化特征.在蓄水前自然状态下,整体稳定系数K=1.18.未蓄水时暴雨状态下,稳定系数K=0.97,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低20.9%;仅考虑蓄水而未降雨时,滑坡的稳定系数K=0.99,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低18.3%;在蓄水到134m+强暴雨状态下,稳定系数K=0.93,与蓄水前自然状态下比较,稳定系数降低24.8%.反映了蓄水和降雨二者的组合对滑坡失稳影响是非常明显的.     

Analysis of waves generated by Gongjiafang landslide in Wu Gorge, three Gorges reservoir, on November 23, 2008

At 4:40p.m. on November 23, 2008, the Gongjiafang slope collapsed on the north bank of Yangtze River in Wu Gorge of Three Gorges Reservoir. The 380,000-m³ sliding mass consisted mainly of cataclastic rock. A video record of the major sliding incident was analyzed using the general laws of physical motion. The analysis indicated that the maximum speed and maximum acceleration of the sliding mass were 11.65?m/s and 2.23?m/s², respectively, and that the maximum amplitude and the propagation velocity of the water wave near the landslide were 31.8?m and 18.36?m/s, respectively. Wave run-up investigation indicated that the maximum run-up on shore was 13.1?m, which declined to 1.1?m at Wushan dock 4?km away. The incident causes no casualties, but did result in economic losses of RMB five million. The numerical simulation model GEOWAVE was used to simulate and reproduced the impulse wave generated by the landslide; the results were in good agreement with the observed incident. The numerical simulation data were then applied to analyze the decay and amplification effects of the landslide wave in the river course. The field investigations and witness information provide valuable materials for the studies of landslide kinematics and impulse waves generated by landslides. In addition, the research results provide a useful reference for future similar waves generated by landslides in reservoirs.     

三峡水库区万州独生基滑坡稳定性分析

独生基滑坡位于重庆市万州区长江右岸。为百安坝斜坡松散堆积层沿下伏软弱层面滑动的滑坡体。属于降雨及地表生活排水诱发、人类工程活动加剧变形而形成的新滑坡。论文在分析和研究滑坡区地质环境背景、平剖面形态、特征及诱发因素的基础上,采用传递系数法计算了滑坡体各工况及荷载组合条件下的稳定系数。通过计算,滑坡在天然状态、加载及暴雨条件下均处于不稳定状态。最后根据滑坡特征、主要诱发因素及其稳定性,针对滑坡体失稳特征,通过防治方案对比,初步拟定以抗滑桩工程进行治理,以保证滑坡体的稳定。     

Probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement accounting for epistemic uncertainty: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China

Accurate and reliable displacement forecasting plays a key role in landslide early warning. However, due to the epistemic uncertainties associated with landslide systems, errors are unavoidable and sometimes significant in traditional methods of deterministic point forecasting. Transforming traditional point forecasting into probabilistic forecasting is essential for quantifying the associated uncertainties and improving the reliability of landslide displacement forecasting. This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on bootstrap, extreme learning machine (ELM), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods to quantify the associated uncertainties via probabilistic forecasting. The hybrid approach consists of two steps. First, a bootstrap-based ELM is applied to estimate the true regression mean of landslide displacement and the corresponding variance of model uncertainties. Second, an ANN is used to estimate the variance of noise. Reliable prediction intervals (PIs) can be computed by combining the true regression mean, variance of model uncertainty, and variance of noise. The performance of the proposed hybrid approach was validated using monitoring data from the Shuping landslide, Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. The obtained results suggest that the Bootstrap-ELM-ANN approach can be used to perform probabilistic forecasting in the medium term and long term and to quantify the uncertainties associated with landslide displacement forecasting for colluvial landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.     

三峡库区黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型研究

传统的入渗模型未考虑坡角和降雨强度对滑坡入渗过程的影响,为了更好地描述黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗过程,在Green- Ampt入渗模型的基础上推导了考虑坡体倾角和小降雨强度影响的降雨入渗模型。为了获取改进的入渗模型参数,在黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体上进行了双环渗透试验与降雨、土的含水率和基质吸力现场监测。结果表明,黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体饱和渗透系数为4.81×10-5 m/s;降雨时体积含水率增加,降雨停止后体积含水率降低,深部表现出一定的滞后特性;基质吸力变化趋势与体积含水率相反,降雨使其减小,降雨停止后逐渐增大。通过双环渗透试验与现场监测,获取了黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型参数值。将入渗模型计算值与现场监测数据进行对比,该模型计算值与现场监测数据吻合,说明该降雨入渗模型可用于黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗分析。     

Residual-state creep of clastic soil in a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region,China

We study the creep properties of clastic soil in residual state. The intact samples are taken from a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. Firstly, the patterns of the landslide movement are analysed based on recent monitoring data, which indicate that the soil within the shear zone is undergoing two deformation processes: a creep phase, characterised by different creep rates, and a dormant phase. We then study the creep behaviour of the soil samples through a series of ring shear creep tests under various shear stress conditions. The creep response depends strongly on the ratio of the shear stress to the residual strength, and the normal effective stress, whereas the creep rate decreases due to strength regain. The long-term strength of the clastic soil is close to the residual strength. Therefore, the residual strength obtained from conventional shear test, which is less time consuming than creep test, can be used in long-term stability analyses of creeping landslides.     

三峡库区云阳五峰山滑坡防治工程方案研究

本文将三峡工程重庆库区云阳老县城五峰山滑坡划分为顺层滑坡、堆积层滑坡以及2001年1月17日发生的新滑坡("1·17"滑坡)等3部分,结合老县城的安全提出了综合治理方案,即:采用两排预应力锚索进行顺层滑坡的加固,采用钻孔灌注桩进行堆积层滑坡阻滑,在五峰山滑坡下部与西城老滑坡过渡地带植树造林,防止上部崩塌体直接危害县城,并完善后部拦山堰等地面排水系统。本文还介绍了五峰山"1·17"新滑坡应急防护工程设计方案和工程实施情况。     

Experimental modeling of tsunamis generated by subaerial landslides: two case studies of the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

After the Gongjiafang tsunami incident, the China Geological Survey recognized the extreme importance of subaerial landslide-generated tsunamis (SLGT) in the Three Gorges Reservoir, western China. The experimental models presented in the present paper were rooted in two common failure types of high, steep slopes in the Three Gorges Reservoir. One model represents a rigid rock plunging into the water and the other is a granular cluster sliding into the water. A wide range of effective parameters were considered and studied by performing 74 laboratory tests. The effects of bed slope angle, water depth, slide impact velocity, geometry (three-dimensional size of the rigid block and grain size of the granular cluster), and volume on impulse wave characteristics were examined. Slide kinematics and impulsive wave features, such as wave shape, amplitude, run-up, and run-down, were studied and compared. Experiments showed that the failure type of the rock mass plays a key role in SLGT and strongly influences air–fluid–solid interaction. Thus, to forecast SLGT rapidly, the zone of complicated air–solid–fluid interaction can be treated as a “black box” whose output is a water wave with definable characteristics, such as amplitude. Based on the experimental results, two dimensionless equations for the estimation of primary wave maximum amplitude were developed and successfully verified for the two failure types. The study provides basic information needed to forecast tsunamis generated by slopes with the potential to fail in other reservoirs around the world. These data can also be a very useful resource for theoretical analysis or numerical model validation.     

三峡库区凉水井滑坡地质力学模型研究

针对凉水井滑坡两个不同的地质模型（地质模型一及地质模型二）进行了对比研究,认为地质模型二较为合理,即凉水井滑坡是顺层岩质古崩滑堆积体,目前还未形成统一连续的滑带,滑坡按不同的堆积形成秩序及稳定性相关关系分为主滑坡和后部牵引区。并对滑坡的影响因素及变形机制进行了简要分析,认为启动滑坡变形裂缝的根本原因是水库初期蓄水时库水对滑坡阻滑段的浮托、阻滑段滑带的软化和滑坡前缘表部松散坡体的侵蚀塌岸;而在水库运行条件下,滑坡的稳定性影响因素主要是降雨特别是暴雨和久雨。滑坡稳定性分析表明,滑坡自2009年5月以来一直处于缓慢的应力调整和应力释放过程中,滑坡变形总体处于蠕变状态。此外,还对滑坡的破坏模式及稳定性进行了预测分析,认为在未来特大暴雨久雨条件和库岸再造的共同作用下,滑坡表部岩土体将首先发生滑塌（模式一）,也有发生滑坡整体深层滑动破坏的可能（模式二）。