Climate change and recent water level variability in Patagonian proglacial lakes, Argentina

A long series of lakes (~ 150) borders the Patagonian Andes (south of ~ 38°S), most of which are a geomorphologic relict of Pleistocene glaciations. Employing instrumental records, we inspected lake water level departures from seasonal variations in seven proglacial lakes: Lacar, Mascardi, Steffen, Escondido, Puelo, Vinter, and Argentino. Lakes north of ~ 42°S show maximum gage (water) level during austral winter months; lakes between ~ 42° and ~ 45°S appear transitional; the one lake south of ~ 50°S (Argentino) shows maximum water level in early autumn. Most lakes show moderate level fluctuation throughout yearly records and, in general, show heteroscedacity. Furthermore, Hurst exponents reveal persistent behavior (i.e., long-term memory effect) in all water level series. In most lakes there are no trends in deseasonalized mean and maximum water levels (Seasonal Kendall test). Lake Mascardi–Manso River system (mostly fed by melt water from the retreating Manso Glacier) is a contrasting example that shows a decreasing trend during summer months that we ascribe to the also declining ice volume. Harmonic analysis (Fourier and wavelet transform) of deseasonalized mean and maximum water level time series shows interannual and decadal periodicities that we link to the occurrence of El Niño and/or the Antarctic Oscillation. The associated phase spectrum indicates that there is a ~ 13-month lag between ENSO occurrences and its effect on anomalous lake water levels. Increased snow accumulation during austral winters usually follows summertime El Niño events, which normally result in increased melt water volume that occurs with about one-year delay during the following (austral) spring/summer.     

Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Long-chain alkenones and U37′ variability along a south–north transect in the Western Pacific Ocean

In this paper, we present 50 surface water samples collected during the IMAGES III cruise (June–July 1997) along a transect from New Zealand to the China Sea (42°S–178°E, 21°N–120°E) covering a temperature range from 13.3 to 30.4 °C. A very worthwhile aspect of this study is a coupling of both biomarker (alkenone) and coccolithophorid counting. We show that the U₃₇^k′–temperature relationship is very similar to the Prahl et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 52 (1988) 2203] culture calibration and to the global core top calibration of Müller et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 62 (1998) 1757]. However, in the warmest surface waters of the Western Pacific ocean (>26.4 °C) where Gephyrocapsa oceanica is likely the most widespread species, the associated U₃₇^k′ has a constant value of 1.0. The consequence is that above this temperature threshold, U₃₇^k′ cannot be used as an accurate paleothermometer.     

The 2003 November 14 occultation by Titan of TYC 1343-1865-1: II. Analysis of light curves

We observed a stellar occultation by Titan on 2003 November 14 from La Palma Observatory using ULTRACAM with three Sloan filters: u^′, g^′, and i^′ (358, 487, and 758 nm, respectively). The occultation probed latitudes 2° S and 1° N during immersion and emersion, respectively. A prominent central flash was present in only the i^′ filter, indicating wavelength-dependent atmospheric extinction. We inverted the light curves to obtain six lower-limit temperature profiles between 335 and 485 km (0.04 and 0.003 mb) altitude. The i^′ profiles agreed with the temperature measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument [Fulchignoni, M., and 43 colleagues, 2005. Nature 438, 785–791] above 415 km (0.01 mb). The profiles obtained from different wavelength filters systematically diverge as altitude decreases, which implies significant extinction in the light curves. Applying an extinction model [Elliot, J.L., Young, L.A., 1992. Astron. J. 103, 991–1015] gave the altitudes of line of sight optical depth equal to unity: 396±7 and 401±20 km (u^′ immersion and emersion); 354±7 and 387±7 km (g^′ immersion and emersion); and 336±5 and 318±4 km (i^′ immersion and emersion). Further analysis showed that the optical depth follows a power law in wavelength with index 1.3±0.2. We present a new method for determining temperature from scintillation spikes in the occulting body's atmosphere. Temperatures derived with this method are equal to or warmer than those measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument. Using the highly structured, three-peaked central flash, we confirmed the shape of Titan's middle atmosphere using a model originally derived for a previous Titan occultation [Hubbard, W.B., and 45 colleagues, 1993. Astron. Astrophys. 269, 541–563].     

Comparison of heat balance characteristics at five glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere

Ablation characteristics of five glaciers in Patagonia and New Zealand were compared. Investigated glaciers were Tyndall and Moreno in southern Patagonia, Soler and San Rafael in northern Patagonia, and Franz Josef in New Zealand. Micro-meteorological observations were carried out at the glaciers and the heat balance components were estimated. At Franz Josef and Soler glaciers, the sensible heat flux is the largest and the latent heat flux is the second, and they are larger than the net radiation. At San Rafael Glacier, the net radiation is the largest and the latent heat flux is the smallest component, which is similar to Moreno and Tyndall glaciers. Though the latent heat flux is the smallest component at San Rafael Glacier, it is more than twice as large as that at Tyndall Glacier and contributes substantially to ice melting. The ratios of heat balance components were very different among glaciers, but the total heat flux ranged from about 240 to 300 W m⁻² showing little difference among glaciers.     

Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.     

20 years of mass balances on the Piloto glacier, Las Cuevas river basin, Mendoza, Argentina

Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.     

Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.     

Changes in solar irradiance and atmospheric turbidity in Costa Rica during the total solar eclipse of July 11, 1991

Solar global radiation was measured in several places in Costa Rica during the total solar eclipse that occurred on July 11, 1991. In two of these places, Puntarenas and Santa Cruz, measurements in the ultraviolet range (295–385 nm) were also taken. In Santa Cruz, a normal incidence pyrheliometer with Schott filters OG530 and RG630 was used to measure direct solar radiation in its whole range, and in the 530–2800 nm and 630–2800 wavebands respectively. Global radiation, and consequently direct, diffuse and irradiance in any of the wavebands considered, decreased gradually as the sun was being eclipsed and reached zero during the totality, then increased to their normal values. Data registered in Santa Cruz were used to determine Ångstrom's atmospheric turbidity parameters and. Computations show that between 13:00 and 14:30 LT (local time), decreased and increased significantly. This indicates that atmospheric turbidity was high and large particles were more abundant than small ones. The size of hygroscopic particles increased during the eclipse when temperature decreased and relative humidity increased in a comparatively short time.     

Latitudinal UVR-PAR measurements in Argentina: extent of the ‘ozone hole’

The UVR-PAR Argentinean Monitoring Network started its operation in September 1994 recording ultraviolet (UVR) and Photosynthetic Available Radiation (PAR) at a frequency of once per minute, at four sites, throughout the entire year. Four spectroradiometers (GUV-511, Biospherical Instruments, Inc.) were installed at research centers separated by about 8–12 degrees of latitude, extending from the Subantarctic-Fueguian region to the Tropic of Capricorn. The instruments are located in populated areas ranging from 30,000 to 11 million people and with extremely different climate regimes and conditions of tropospheric pollution. Our ground-based data indicated that the irradiance increased steadily from south to north. This increase was also observed in the calculated daily doses of UV-B (280–320 nm); however, daily integrated values for UV-A (320–400 nm) and PAR (400–700 nm) were higher at mid-latitudes (Puerto Madryn, 42°47′S). A similar south-to-north increase was evident in the ratio of the energy at 305 nm and 340 nm wavelengths (with low 305/340 ratios indicating high total ozone column concentration), with low values at Ushuaia (55°01′S) and high values at Jujuy (24°10′S). However, the 305/340 ratios increased significantly over their normal spring values at two sites, Ushuaia and Puerto Madryn, for variable time periods during October-December. Our data suggest that the ozone hole was over South America extending to about 38°S for at least a week during October and about two weeks during November-December of the years of 1994 and 1995. However, it should be noted that the erythemal irradiance, in the area influenced by the ozone hole, was at all times lower than that in Buenos Aires and well below the value at Jujuy (tropical station). This study also indicates that when assessing the impact of solar UVR upon organisms, other variables such as cloud cover, solar zenith angle, day length, latitude, and atmospheric pollution should be considered in addition to total ozone column concentration.     

Twentieth century thinning of Mendenhall Glacier,Alaska, and its relationship to climate,lake calving,and glacier run-off

Mendenhall Glacier is a dynamic maritime glacier in southeast Alaska that is undergoing substantial recession and thinning. The terminus has retreated 3 km during the 20th century and the lower part of the glacier has thinned 200 m or more since 1909. Glacier-wide volume loss between 1948 and 2000 is estimated at 5.5 km³. Wastage has been the strongest in the glacier's lower reaches, but the glacier has also thinned at higher elevations. The shrinkage of Mendenhall Glacier appears to be due primarily to surface melting and secondarily to lake calving. The change in the average rate of thinning on the lower glacier, <1 m a⁻¹ between 1948 and 1982 and >2 m a⁻¹ since 1982, agrees qualitatively with observed warming trends in the region. Mean annual temperatures in Juneau decreased slightly from 1947 to 1976; they then began to increase, leading to an overall warming of ∼1.6 °C since 1943. Lake calving losses have periodically been a small but significant fraction of glacier ablation. The portion of the terminus that ends in the lake is becoming increasingly vulnerable to calving because of a deep pro-glacial lake basin. If current climatic trends persist, the glacier will continue to shrink and the terminus will recede onto land at a position about 500 m inland within one to two decades. The glacier and the meltwaters that flow from it are integral components of the Mendenhall Valley hydrologic system. Approximately 13% of the recent average annual discharge of the Mendenhall River is attributable to glacier shrinkage. Glacier melt contributes 50% of the total river discharge in summer.     

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 ¹⁴C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.     

Determination of the decameter wavelength spectrum of the quiet Sun

The Teepee Tee array of the Clark Lake Radio Observatory has been used to compare the flux of the Sun with that of the sidereal sources Tau A and Vir A at several frequencies in the range 109.0–19.0 MHz. Only the two central banks of the E-W arm of the array were used as elements of a phase switched interferometer so that the Sun could be observed as a point source and compared directly to the sidereal sources. The Sun was still partially resolved however, and appropriate corrections for this effect were made. The observations were taken at times when the Sun and either Tau A or Vir A were at the same declination. We have therefore been able to derive the values for the solar flux, without having to resort to a gain vs zenith distance correction. The observations, combined with those available in the literature, allow us to derive an accurate meter and decameter wavelength spectrum of the quiet Sun.On leave of absence from Instituto Argentino de Radioastronomía, Argentina.     

Estimation of net accumulation rate at a Patagonian glacier by ice core analyses using snow algae

Snow algae in a 45.97-m-long ice core from the Tyndall Glacier (50°59′05″S, 73°31′12″W, 1756 m a.s.l.) in the Southern Patagonian Icefield were examined for potential use in ice core dating and estimation of the net accumulation rate. The core was subjected to visual stratigraphic observation and bulk density measurements in the field, and later to analyses of snow algal biomass, water isotopes (¹⁸O, D), and major dissolved ions. The ice core contained many algal cells that belonged to two species of snow algae growing in the snow near the surface: Chloromonas sp. and an unknown green algal species. Algal biomass and major dissolved ions (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) exhibited rapid decreases in the upper 3 m, probably owing to melt water elution and/or decomposition of algal cells. However, seasonal cycles were still found for the snow algal biomass, ¹⁸O, D-excess, and major ions, although the amplitudes of the cycles decreased with depth. Supposing that the layers with almost no snow algae were the winter layers without the melt water essential to algal growth, we estimated that the net accumulation rate at this location was 12.9 m a^− 1 from winter 1998 to winter 1999, and 5.1 m from the beginning of winter to December 1999. These estimates are similar to the values estimated from the peaks of ¹⁸O (17.8 m a^− 1 from summer 1998 to summer 1999 and 11.0 m from summer to December 1999) and those of D-excess (14.7 m a^− 1 from fall 1998 to fall 1999 and 8.6 m a^− 1 from fall to December 1999). These values are much higher than those obtained by past ice core studies in Patagonia, but are of the same order of magnitude as those predicted from various observations at ablation areas of Patagonian glaciers.     

Climatic implications of correlated Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits on the Cinca and Gállego Rivers (NE Spain) based on OSL dating and soil stratigraphy

We correlate Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits of the Cinca and Gállego River valleys (south central Pyrenees and Ebro basin, Spain) using geomorphic position, luminescence dates, and time-related trends in soil development. The ages obtained from glacial deposits indicate glacial periods at 85 ± 5 ka, 64 ± 11 ka, and 36 ± 3 ka (from glacial till) and 20 ± 3 ka (from loess). The fluvial drainage system, fed by glaciers in the headwaters, developed extensive terrace systems in the Cinca River valley at 178 ± 21 ka, 97 ± 16 ka, 61 ± 4 ka, 47 ± 4 ka, and 11 ± 1 ka, and in the Gállego River valley at 151 ± 11 ka, 68 ± 7 ka, and 45 ± 3 ka. The times of maximum geomorphic activity related to cold phases coincide with Late Pleistocene marine isotope stages and Heinrich events. The maximum extent of glaciers during the last glacial occurred at 64 ± 11 ka, and the terraces correlated with this glacial phase are the most extensive in both the Cinca (61 ± 4 ka) and Gállego (68 ± 7 ka) valleys, indicating a strong increase in fluvial discharge and availability of sediments related to the transition to deglaciation. The global Last Glacial Maximum is scarcely represented in the south central Pyrenees owing to dominantly dry conditions at that time. Precipitation must be controlled by the position of the Iberian Peninsula with respect to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation system. The glacial systems and the associated fluvial dynamic seem sensitive to 1) global climate changes controlled by insolation, 2) North Atlantic thermohaline circulation influenced by freshwater pulses into the North Atlantic, and 3) anomalies in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic controlling precipitation on the Iberian Peninsula. Our scenario of glacial and fluvial evolution during the Late Pleistocene in northern Spain could be extrapolated to other glaciated mountainous areas in southern Europe.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

VLA/GBI observations of the new high mass X-ray binary LS 5039

We comment on the main radio emitting properties of the proposed high mass X-ray binary LS 5039. Our study is based on multi-epoch observations with the VLA radio interferometer, at 2.0, 3.6, 6.0 and 20 cm wavelengths, as well as on the first data obtained by the GBI-NASA Monitoring Program at 3.6 and 13.3 cm wavelengths. The source appears to be compact (θ≤0′′.1) and moderately variable, with a non-thermal radio spectrum suggestive of synchrotron radiation.     

Effects of a 2 × CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO₂ experiments (2 × CO₂) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO₂ climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to 1595 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +27 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO₂ climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO₂ climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr⁻¹ to 600 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +619 mm yr⁻¹ due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.     

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.     

High-resolution bispectrum speckle interferometry and two-dimensional radiative transfer modeling of the Red Rectangle

We present the first diffraction-limited K-band image of the Red Rectangle with 76 mas resolution, an H-band image with 75 mas resolution, and an RG 715 filter image ( 800 nm wavelength) with 78 mas resolution (corresponding to 25 AU for a distance of 330 pc). The H and K images were reconstructed from 6 m telescope speckle data and the RG 715 image from 2.2 m telescope data using the speckle masking bispectrum method. At all wavelengths the images show a compact, highly symmetric bipolar nebula, suggesting a toroidal density distribution of the circumstellar material. No direct light from the central binary can be seen as it is obscured by a dust disk or circumbinary torus. Our first high-resolution H−K color image of the nebula shows a broad red plateau of H−K≈ 2^m in the bright inner regions.The optical and near-infrared images and the available photometric continuum observations in a wide range of ultraviolet to centimeter wavelengths enabled us to model the Red Rectangle in detail using a two-dimensional radiative transfer code. Our model matches both the high-resolution images and the spectral energy distribution of this object very well, making the following picture much more certain. The central close binary system with a total luminosity of 3000 L is embedded in a very dense, compact circumbinary torus which has an average number density n_H ≈5×10¹² cm⁻³, an outer radius of the dense inner region of R≈30 AU (91 mas), and a ρ∝r⁻² density distribution. The full opening angle of the bipolar outflow cavities in our model is 70°. By comparing the observed and theoretical images, we derived an inclination angle of the torus to the line of sight of 7°±1°.The radiative transfer calculations show that the dust properties in the Red Rectangle are spatially inhomogeneous. The modeling confirms that the idea of large grains in the long-lived disk around the Red Rectangle (Jura et al., 1997 [ApJ, 474, 741]) is quantitatively consistent with the observations. In our models, unusually large, approximately millimeter-sized grains dominate the emission of the compact, massive torus. Models with smaller average grain sizes can possibly be found in future studies, for instance, if it turns out that the radio spectrum is not mainly caused by continuum dust emission. Therefore, the large grains suggested by our models require further confirmation by both new observations and radiative transfer calculations. Assuming a dust-to-gas ratio ρ_d/ρ_g of 0.005, the dense torus mass is 0.25 M. The model gives a lower limit of 0.0018 M, for the mass of the large particles, which produce a gray extinction of A≈ 28^m, towards the center. A much smaller mass of submicron-sized dust grains is presumably located in the polar outflow cavities, their conical surface layers, and in the outer low-density parts of the torus (where ρ∝r⁻⁴, in the region of 30 AUr 2000 AU corresponding to 0.^′′09–6^′′).