海平面上升对我国沿海低地的影响

介绍了影响我国沿海低地相对海平面上升的因素,讨论了相对海平面上升对我国海岸侵蚀、沿海低地淹没等影响以及风险等级划分的若干问题。     

砂质海岸与淤泥质平原海岸的生态型保护研究

海岸地区是全球人口密集、城镇密布和经济发达区 ,这一区域的都市化和工业化进程迅猛 ,旅游业飞速发展。所有这些对自然资源和生物多样性构成了严重威胁。同时 ,由于全球海平面的变化及沿岸砂量的变化 ,对海洋动力敏感的两种海岸———沙质海岸和淤泥质平原海岸的退损是非常显著的。海岸遭受侵蚀的因素有 :(1)海平面上升 ;(2 )陆源供沙减少 ;(3)人为海岸带采沙 ;(4 )海岸工程负面效应 ;(5 )其他。根据研究 ,海平面上升 5 0ｃｍ情况下 ,我国的青岛、汇泉、浮山 3个海湾海滩损失面积多达 17万多ｍ2 ,损失率在30 %以上 ,滨海后退达 34 0ｍ之多 …     

中国沿岸海平面上升与海岸灾害

政府间气候变化专门委员会1995年气候变化评价报告指出,全球海平面在过去的100年里上升了18cm,预测全球海平面将加速上升,在2050年时上升20cm,2100年时上升49cm.根据近40多年的验潮资料分析,中国沿岸海平面上升速率为1.4～2.0mm/a,与全球上升速率一致。由于沿海许多地区的严重地面沉降,地壳垂直升降的不同,以及其它因素的影响,我国沿岸海平面的相对上升各不相同,严重地区的上升速率要大得多。海平面的加速上升必将使我国沿海大部地区的风暴潮等自然灾害更加严重。     

海平面上升的海岸形态响应研究方法与进展

海岸带是人口最稠密的地带,全世界几乎一半的人口生活在沿海地区[1](根据UNCEDDE的定义,以距海岸线150 km计)。受全球变化,尤其是21世纪海平面加速上升的影响,海岸将发生复杂的形态响应过程,包括海岸侵蚀、滩地淹没和湿地沉积平衡的调整等,从而危害人类的生存和发展,引起世界沿海各国政府和科学界的广泛关注。从海平面上升海岸响应历史记录研究、海岸均衡剖面研究和形态响应模拟研究三个方面概述了海平面上升海岸形态响应的国内外研究进展,并对各种研究方法的适用范围、优点及局限性进行了讨论。     

海岸线变迁环境地质问题研究--以福建南部沿海地区为例

海岸侵蚀、淤积是改造沿海地质环境的主要因素之一。利用遥感技术和时空对比分析等监测手段来揭示地质环境的这种深刻变化,以及对人类生存环境所产生的客观影响,是未来环境地质研究的热点和难点问题。在系统总结现代海岸地质地貌特点及全新世以来海岸变迁概况的基础上,对福建南部沿海地区海岸线变迁的现状与发展趋势进行探讨。在当前世界海平面上升的总体情况下,海岸侵蚀将成为全球性海岸带最主要的自然灾害;海湾淤积影响港口城市的可持续发展;滩涂淤涨给水产养殖业带来了新的问题。     

河口三角洲海岸侵蚀及防护措施浅析——以黄河三角洲及长江三角洲为例

进入20世纪50年代以来,我国海岸侵蚀日趋明显,一些海岸带资源或油田设施遭到破坏。针对我国黄河三角洲和长江三角洲海岸线的侵蚀现状,分析了我国海岸线侵蚀的主要因素:河流泥沙减少;海平面的上升或海洋动力因素增强以及人为因素的影响。并对目前我国所采用的海岸防护措施进行了分析。提出了我国海岸防护工程类型较多,应根据海岸侵蚀的特点采用不同的措施或多种形式组合,因势利导,使工程达到最好的防护效果。     

全球海平面上升影响研究的内容、方法与问题

全球海平面上升影响研究是近年来随着全球变化研究的开展刚刚兴起的研究领域。本文分析了全球变暖引起的下一世纪海平面加速上升对沿海地区自然环境演变和社会经济发展等影响研究的主要内容与方法,并对影响研究中的若干问题进行了讨论。     

开敞式潮滩-潮沟系统发育演变动力机制——Ⅲ.海平面上升影响

为研究海平面上升对潮滩-潮沟系统的影响,以江苏中部粉砂淤泥质海岸为原型,建立变态物理模型,模拟研究在不同海平面潮汐过程作用下的潮沟发育和演变过程,分析了潮滩淹没历时、排水密度、潮沟断面形态等特征参数变化规律。研究表明:潮沟在发育初期伸长速率高于拓宽速率,最终趋于动态平衡;海平面上升后,潮滩淹没历时增加,露滩时间缩短,归槽水对潮沟底床的塑造作用减弱;平均归槽水流长度和Horton排水长度均随海平面上升呈现出减小趋势,潮沟的排水能力增强;潮沟断面宽深比服从对数正态分布,随着海平面上升,潮沟断面面积和宽深比均呈现出增大趋势,宽深比分布范围变广。     

河口海岸沉积层理特征与形成机制

河口海岸地处海陆交界带,其沉积层理特征与形成机制是沉积动力学、动力地貌学和地层学等学科方向的研究热点,对评价海岸工程环境效应、重建沉积古环境等具有重要参考价值。通过梳理河口海岸区域径流、潮汐、波浪等多种动力因子作用的研究成果,归纳不同动力主导作用形成的沉积层理特征,剖析3种基本动力对沉积层理塑造的动力学机制,阐释洪水、风暴偶发动力因子以及生物扰动、海平面变化、围垦工程等其他影响因子对沉积层理形成和保存的作用机理。同时,总结了数值模拟手段在沉积层理形成和破坏机制解译方面的应用及取得的机理认知,提出在河口海岸沉积层理时空尺度认知、多因素耦合反演模型开发应用等方面有待进一步研究的科学问题。     

全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述

全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。     

相对海平面上升的危害与防治对策

相对海平面上升已成为中国沿海地区海洋地质环境灾害之一。本文在有关学者以往研究工作的基础上,对中国相对海平面上升所造成的危害作了进一步探讨,并提出一系列防治对策。相对海平面上升能够在沿海地区造成海岸侵蚀、风暴潮灾害加剧、海水入侵、水资源和水环境遭到破坏、沿海低地被淹、防汛工程功能降低等诸多灾害。为了减缓这些灾害,采取一定的防治对策是十分迫切和必要的,其中加强海平面变化监测和科学研究是基础,提高海堤标准、加强海堤管理与保护、施行海滩人工喂养是关键,此外还要辅以公众意识的提高。     

Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

The extent of saltwater intrusion in southern Baldwin County,Alabama

Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays, Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore, geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses.     

Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai,China

Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).     

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.     

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Classifying inundation limits in SE coast of India: application of GIS

A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km² will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development.