南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟

结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录,在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上,分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式,对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算,计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格,外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域,使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程;第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域,使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程;第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域,使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的,应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好,可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。     

印度洋海啸灾害特点及其对工程防御的启示

印度洋海啸现场调查表明,海啸灾害不同于地震和洪水灾害。海啸通过高水位淹没、浪涌冲击对海边地势低平地区的房屋、道路、桥梁、机场、给排水、供电、通讯等设施以及车辆、船只造成严重破坏。海啸上岸后,由于巨大的冲力,将夹带一些破损建筑产生的固体漂浮物一同前进,破坏力更强。由于淹没、浪涌、冲毁建筑物压埋以及漂浮物冲击等综合作用,造成人员死亡率极高,所过之处,财产皆空。抗御海啸灾害的工程措施主要包括:合理规划(避让、削弱、分流、阻挡)和科学设计(潜在海啸灾害等级划分、结构性态决策、海啸荷载确定、抗海啸分析、构造设计)。     

A Record of Palaeo-Tsunami in the Indian Ocean

The history of catastrophic events on the Indian coast helps us to understand the frequency and magnitude of the tsunamis that occurred in the Indian Ocean. These catastrophic events have changed the coastal landscape and have left significant records for further studies. These rare events have occurred in the Indian Ocean. There have been megatsunamigenic events in the past due to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Those events due to earthquakes have proved more catastrophic than the volcanic activities. There has been limited official records of the causality and magnitude of palaeo-tsunamigenic events. These have been studied using the various proxies. The rate of sedimentation is a proportional tool to study the magnitude of a tsunami and this has proved to be a successful tool along with foraminiferal assemblages. Causes for a tsunami to occur are by and large, the subduction zone earthquakes of the Indian plate has been the most common source for tsunami in the Indian Ocean. More often the Andaman and Nicobar and the Indonesian islands have been vulnerable to tsunami than the mainland of India and Sri Lanka.

In summary, in the last 200 years at least three basin-wide tsunamis have occurred, with several smaller tsunami affecting one or more coastlines in the region. The December 2004 M-9 tsunami seems to have been the largest and most destructive in the last two centuries, suggesting most tsunami are likely to be smaller but still allowing the possibility that even larger tsunami could be generated in propitious circumstances.     

A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model in generalized curvilinear coordinates

Based on the fully nonlinear Boussinesq equations in Cartesian coordinates, the equations in generalized coordinates are derived to adapt computations to irregularly shaped shorelines, such as harbors, bays and tidal inlets, and to make computations more efficient in large near-shore regions. Contravariant components of velocity vectors are employed in the derivation instead of the normal components in curvilinear coordinates or original components in Cartesian coordinates, which greatly simplifies the equations in generalized curvilinear coordinates. A high-order finite difference scheme with staggered grids in the image domain is adopted in the numerical model. The model is applied to five examples involving curvilinear coordinate systems. The results of these cases are in good agreement with analytical results, experimental data, and the results from the uniform grid model, which shows that the model has good accuracy and efficiency in dealing with the computations of nonlinear surface gravity waves in domains with complicated geometries.     

浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析

采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。     

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟.本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险.通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发...     

Numerical Simulation of Tsunamis on the Tamil Nadu Coast of India

The State of Tamil Nadu was the most affected region in India during the tsunami of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean, in terms of loss of life and damage. Numerical simulation was made for three tsunamis, the December 26, 2004, event, the Sumatra tsunami of 1833, and a hypothetical tsunami originating in the Andaman-Nicobar region. Since inundation is not included in these simulations, the tsunami amplitudes were deduced at the 10m depth contour in the ocean, off several locations on the coast of Tamil Nadu. The computed amplitudes appear reasonable as compared to known tsunami amplitudes from past events.     

一个改进的二阶Boussinesq方程模型在线性波浪反射问题中的适用性研究

基于改进型的二阶Boussinesq方程,在交错网络下建立数值模型.利用模型模拟波浪在常水深情况下的传播,波浪反射系数均低于2％.利用该模型模拟波浪在平斜坡前的反射,并将数值结果与解析解进行对比.结果表明,对于相对水深较大情况,坡度较陡时模拟结果明显偏大;对 于相对水深较小情况,坡度超过1:1时,数值结果仍与解析解有....     

Boussinesq相位解析的海岸水动力学数学模型研究进展

由于在平衡计算效率和精度上具有优势,Boussinesq相位解析数学模型研究不断取得突破,已成为波浪和水流精细化模拟的较优解析方式,为海岸工程、环境、地质等问题提供了实用和高效的研究手段。本文对已有Boussinesq类模型的研究进行了评述,深入探讨其重要发展、实际应用和理论瓶颈,从高阶非静压修正、GPU准三维高性能算法编译、波浪破碎和泥沙运移沉积等4个方面提出未来可能的科学突破方向。     

Energetics of the Tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean: A Brief Review

The energetics of the most destructive tsunami in historical time, and that of the under ocean earthquake that triggered this tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean have been briefly reviewed. This latest tsunami has several other unique characteristics besides being one of the worst natural disasters in human history. It is the first truly global tsunami after modern seismographic and sea level monitoring networks have been put in place. It was the first tsunami on record detected by a satellite, even though at present, global satellite coverage of the oceans for real time tsunami detection is not adequate. Finally, the energy associated with the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it is so large that speculation has been made about the normal modes of oscillation of the earth, that were triggered by the earthquake as well as some suggestions, that some of the earth's rotational characteristics may have temporarily changed to a discernible degree. Here, we briefly review the energetics of the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it.     

海洋模式中Boussinesq近似误差讨论

根据全球增暖的特点,设计了一个理想的数值试验方案,用Boussinesq POP海洋模式和改进的非Boussinesq POP海洋模式定量讨论了Bousiinesq近似在海洋模式计算中的误差。结果发现,在只有热力驱动的热力环流背景下,由热膨胀引起的海平面上升在水平方向上是基本均匀的,在所给的初始边界条件下,这种由Boussinesq近似引起的最大海平面误差可以达到59％,在Boussinesq POP模式中,热源中心处的海面高度要远小于由非Boussinesq模式计算的海面高度,而其周围有虚假的海面高度下降;在只有加热引起的热盐环流过程中,当模式作了Boussinesq假设以后,计算的经向和纬向垂直环流都会产生虚假的加强,虽然这种误差只是在1％左右;在Bousiinesq近似假定下,热量经向通量在赤道上垂直剖面的积分误差比质量经向通量在赤道上垂直剖面的积分误差大一个量级;非Boussinesq模式计算的气压梯度所做功的垂向分布在3000m以下是有波动的,而Boussinesq模式计算的气压梯度所做功的垂向分布在3000m以下基本上是均匀的,它的误差在10％以上。     

Surf zone dynamics simulated by a Boussinesq type model. Part I. Model description and cross-shore motion of regular waves

This is the first of three papers on the modelling of various types of surf zone phenomena. In this first paper, part I, the model is presented and its basic features are studied for the case of regular waves. The model is based on two-dimensional equations of the Boussinesq type and it features improved linear dispersion characteristics, possibility of wave breaking, and a moving boundary at the shoreline. The moving shoreline is treated numerically by replacing the solid beach by a permeable beach characterized by an extremely small porosity. Run-up of nonbreaking waves is verified against the analytical solution for nonlinear shallow water waves. The inclusion of wave breaking is based on the surface roller concept for spilling breakers using a geometrical determination of the instantaneous roller thickness at each point and modelling the effect of wave breaking by an additional convective momentum term. This is a function of the local wave celerity, which is determined interactively. The model is applied to cross-shore motions of regular waves including various types of breaking on plane sloping beaches and over submerged bars. Model results comprise time series of surface elevations and the spatial variation of phase-averaged quantities such as the wave height, the crest and trough elevations, the mean water level, and the depth-averaged undertow. Comparisons with physical experiments are presented. The phaseaveraged balance of the individual terms in the momentum and energy equation is determined by time-integration and quantities such as the cross-sectional roller area, the radiation stress, the energy flux and the energy dissipation are studied and discussed with reference to conventional phase-averaged wave models. The companion papers present cross-shore motions of breaking irregular waves, swash oscillations and surf beats (part II) and nearshore circulations induced by breaking of unidirectional and multidirectional waves (part III).     

基于双层Boussinesq方程的三维波浪数值模型及其验证

Liu等给出的最高导数为2的双层Boussinesq水波方程具有较好的色散性和非线性,基于该方程建立了有限差分法的三维波浪数值模型。在矩形网格上对方程进行了空间离散,采用高阶导数近似方程中的时、空项,时间积分采用混合4阶Adams-Bashforth-Moulton的预报—校正格式。模拟了深水条件下的规则波传播过程,计算波面与解析结果吻合较好,反映出数值模型能很好地刻画波面过程及波面处的速度变化;在kh=2π条件下可较为准确获得沿水深分布的水平和垂向速度,这与理论分析结果一致。最后,利用数值模型计算了规则波在三维特征地形上的传播变形,数值结果和试验数据吻合较好;高阶非线性项会对波浪数值结果产生一定的影响,当波浪非线性增强,水深减少将产生更多的高次谐波。建立的双层Boussinesq模型对强非线性波浪的演化具有较好的模拟精度。     

大洋环流模式中Boussinesq近似与静压近似问题的讨论

改进环流模式中的Boussinesq近似与静压近似是当前海洋环流模式的主要研究方向之一。虽然目前已提出一些在模式中包含非Boussinesq效应和静压效应的方法,但是仍有很多关键问题亟待解决。系统地回顾了改进这2个基本近似的理论分析和数值模式的研究进展,介绍了不同方法的理论基础及其数值分析结果,并分析了这些方法中所存在的缺陷和问题,指出了开展进一步研究需要首先分析的几个关键问题。     

2010年智利和2011年日本海啸在华南沿岸的实测海啸波形和特征

文章根据三亚湾和台山广海湾实测水位数据,分析了2010年智利和2011年日本海啸在中国近岸传播的海啸波形。通过与2个深海海啸观测浮标(DART)观测到的海啸波形对照,采用功率谱分析和小波分析技术,研究远场海啸在中国华南沿岸的海啸波特征和传播规律。在2次事件中,海啸波通过巴士海峡进入中国南海后,大约3~4h到达华南沿岸。地形效应是决定海啸波能量的重要因素,特定周期的海啸波得到选择性增强。海啸波在近岸海湾持续时间长达2~3d,海啸波周期越长,持续时间越久。2次海啸事件均未对我国沿海造成灾害性影响,但是通过海啸波形的对比分析,能够更好地了解南海北部地形对海啸波的响应特征,为防范海啸提供借鉴。     

Study of irregular wave run-up over fringing reefs based on a shock-capturing Boussinesq model

This paper presents the results of a parametric study of irregular wave run-up over fringing reefs using the shock-capturing Boussinesq wave model Funwave-TVD to better understand the role of fringing reefs in the mitigation of wave-driven flooding. Laboratory experiments were newly performed with a typical fringing reef profile and typical hydrodynamic conditions to validate the model. Experimental data shows irregular wave run-ups are dominated by the low-frequency motions and confirms the run-up resonant phenomenon over the back-reef slope, which has been revealed in previous numerical studies. It is demonstrated that irregular wave evolution and run-up over fringing reefs are reasonably reproduced by the present model with a proper grid size. However, the infragravity run-up height and highest 2% run-up height over the back-reef slope are under-predicted due to the underestimation of the infragravity wave height over the reef flat. The validated model was then utilized to model irregular wave transformations and run-ups under different conditions. Through a series of numerical experiments, the effects of key hydrodynamic and reef geometry parameters, including the reef flat width, water depth over the reef flat, fore-reef slope angle and back-reef slope angle, on the irregular wave run-up were investigated. Variations of spectral components of irregular wave run-ups were examined to better understand the physical process underlying the effect of each parameter.     

我国南海历史性水域线的地质特征

40a的海洋地质、地球物理实测研究表明,九段线不仅是显示我国南海主权的历史性水域线,而且总体上也是南海与东部、南部和西部陆区及岛区的巨型地质边界线。根据实测数据,本文将从地质成因、来源、演化的角度论述此南海历史性水域线的合理性。主要结论包括:历史性水域线的东段在地形上基本与马尼拉海沟一致,海沟西侧为南海中央海盆洋壳区,东侧为菲律宾群岛。根据国际地质研究的资料,菲律宾群岛始新世以前位于较偏南的纬度,后来于中晚中新世(距今16~10Ma)仰冲于南海中央海盆之上,因此菲律宾群岛是一个外来群岛。而黄岩岛在马尼拉海沟以西,是中央海盆洋壳区的一个岛礁,与菲律宾群岛成因不同。南海历史性水域线的南段在地形上基本与南沙海槽一致,伴随南沙地块由北部陆缘向南裂离,古南海洋壳沿此海槽以南俯冲至加里曼丹岛陆壳之下,因此南沙地块与加里曼丹陆块为两个来历不同的地块。南海历史性水域线西段的分布在地形上与越东巨型走滑断裂带基本一致,可能与西沙地块、中沙地块、南沙地块从南海北部陆缘向南滑移有关。南沙地块北缘陡直的正断层结构,突显中央海盆是拉裂形成,其基底和中新生代地层与北部珠江口盆地的地层结构可以对比,说明南沙岛礁原属我国华南大陆南缘,后因南海的形成裂离至现今的位置。     

Generation of waves in Boussinesq models using a source function method

A method for generating waves in Boussinesq-type wave models is described. The method employs a source term added to the governing equations, either in the form of a mass source in the continuity equation or an applied pressure forcing in the momentum equations. Assuming linearity, we derive a transfer function which relates source amplitude to surface wave characteristics. We then test the model for generation of desired incident waves, including regular and random waves, for both one and two dimensions. We also compare some model results with analytical solution and available experiment data.     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

印度洋海表盐度预报的线性马尔可夫模型及其改进办法

海洋盐度在水循环、海洋环流、海洋生态系统、全球天气和气候变化等方面起着至关重要的作用。然而,受观测的限制,以往对海洋盐度的研究相对匮乏,对其进行预报的工作更为少见。本文采用线性马尔可夫模型对印度洋海表面盐度(sea surface salinity,SSS)开展初步的预报工作。根据混合层盐度收支方程,选择海表面高度(sea surface height,SSH)、海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、SSS等物理量的异常值作为模型的组成部分,对印度洋SSS开展预报工作。结果表明,马尔可夫模型可提前9个月对印度洋SSS进行较好的预报。此外,南太平洋海表面温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA),海表面高度异常(sea surface height anomaly,SSHA)和印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean dipole,IOD)系数等遥相关因素的加入可将线性马尔可夫预报对印度洋SSS的预报效果(相关系数)平均提高10%。利用改进的模型对印度洋SSS进行提前1～11个月的“实时”预测,得出预报的SSS时空变...