基于MIKESHE分布式水文模型的降水时间尺度对喀斯特流域径流模拟的影响研究——以红水河系六硐河流域为例

径流形成是流域系统对降水水文响应的结果,其实质也是流域对降水时间和空间上的重新分配。降水作为径流模拟中最大的不确定因素之一,其时空分布特征是影响径流模拟及一系列其它水文问题的主要控制因素。为了探索喀斯特流域降水时间尺度对径流的影响规律,本研究利用MIKESHE模拟技术,结合喀斯特流域独特的地质、地貌、覆被类型及水文特征,对模型的相关参数进行率定,模拟了5场典型洪水的降水径流过程。并且通过改变降水资料的时间尺度,研究降水时间变异对模拟洪水过程的影响。研究表明,在相同的流域下垫面和模型条件下,若累计降水时间增加,同样数量的降水产生的径流总量也会增加,最大的流量出现时间也相对滞后。      

Assessing land use and land cover change in the Wassa West District of Ghana using remote sensing

Vast tracts of forests are lost globally every year especially in the developing countries of the tropics due to various human activities such as lumbering, farming, bush fires, surface mining and urbanization. The rainforest in Ghana has experienced rapid depletion since the 1980s. The impact of deforestation is widespread, affecting the livelihoods of local people and disrupting the tropical ecosystem. There is a serious concern in the study area about climatic change, soil erosion, siltation of rivers and loss in biodiversity which have an adverse impact on traditional medicinal plants of the local people. The study examined the extent of land cover change through image differencing of Landsat TM 1986 and 2002. The image classification indicated that, vegetative cover from 1986 to 2002 has been reducing whiles land use activities have been increasing. Closed canopy, open canopy and plantation have significantly diminished and land use activities especially built ups, farms, mining and openfields are more than doubled. The driving forces for the change in land cover are population growth, lumbering, socio-economic and cultural practices of the people. Lumbering and mining have been some of the major causes of the changing landscape in primary forest. Also the reliance on wood for domestic energy and the need to increase food productivity to feed growing population have also contributed greatly to the rapid depletion of the vegetative cover.     

Estimating impacts of changed land use on recharge: review of modelling and other approaches appropriate for management of dryland salinity

To manage dryland salinity, one needs to know how changed land use affects groundwater recharge. Few techniques are available for comparing 'deep drainage' under different land uses. Soil-tracer methods, although good for replication and remote field sites, are subject to spatial variability. Lysimeters are good for comparisons but are difficult for drier areas and sloping land. Agronomic water-balance studies, where appropriate soil-water measurements exist, may be used with a soil-vegetation model to estimate long-term deep drainage. Complex models are required to analyze specific land-use differences, such as perenniality and root and leaf area dynamics, but models require intensive and extensive data for calibration. This approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive, and difficult in remote locations. Because of the one-dimensionality of most soil-vegetation models and the small fraction of the total water balance that is deep drainage, little success has occurred in extrapolating beyond the research plot, or to spatially heterogeneous systems such as alley farming. Some 'top-down' modelling and landscape disaggregation approaches have been partially successful in making catchment or regional-scale predictions. The direction for further work depends on the level of recharge reduction that is required for most groundwater systems and difficulties that it imposes. Electronic Publication     

Spatial analysis of land use change effect on soil organic carbon stocks in the eastern regions of China between 1980 and 2000

Spatial distributions of 0-20 cm soil carbon sources/sinks caused by land use changes from the year 1980 to 2000 in an area of 2.97 × 10~6 km~2 in eastern China were investigated using a land use dataset from a recent soil geochemical survey.A map of soil carbon sources/sinks has been prepared based on a spatial analysis scheme with GIS.Spatial statistics showed that land use changes had caused 30.7 ± 13.64 Tg of surface soil organic carbon loss,which accounts for 0.33%of the total carbon storage of 9.22 Pg.The net effect of the carbon source was estimated to be ~ 71.49 Tg soil carbon decrease and ~40.80 Tg increase.Land use changes in Northeast China(NE) have the largest impact on soil organic carbon storage compared with other regions.Paddy fields,which were mainly transformed into dry farmland in NE,and constructed land in other regions,were the largest carbon sources among the land use types.Swamp land in NE was also another large soil carbon source when it was transformed into dry farmland or paddy fields.Dry farmland in the NE region formed the largest soil organic carbon sink,as some were transformed into paddy fields,forested land,and other land use types with high SOCD.     

The role of land use on the local climate and air quality during calm inter-monsoon in a tropical city

The modification of land use is known to be a major climate change driver to the local warming and air quality in cities. Despite the reduction of NOx over the years, the Selangor state has captured a higher level of O_3 in year 2011. The measurement result has shown that the surge in O_3 level was attributed to the reduction of NO_x/NMHC ratio. This paper hence attempted to identify the role of land use change from 1999 to 2011 on the ground ozone air quality in the tropical urban conurbation, Greater Kuala Lumpur(GKL), Selangor, Malaysia. With the state-of-the-art chemical weather prediction tool, WRFChem, the external synoptic factors and emission inventory were controlled when comparing the chronological land use changes. The results showed that the urban-induced temperature and wind bias in the tropical region has induced stronger wind to disperse the NO_x and carries the TVOC from the suburban to the downwind urban region. The reduction of NO_x/TVOC has gradually shifted towards the optimum O_3 formation regime in 2011. The formation of highly concentrated ozone becomes more sensitive to the increment of TVOC as the NO_x level reduces in the urban. This highlights the essential involvement of TVOC in the ozone formation in lieu of the NOx reduction in the tropical city, a region with growing emitter of reactive biogenic ozone precursors.     

Potential impacts of aerosol–land–atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics

Aerosols can affect the cloud-radiation feedback and the precipitation over the Indian monsoon region. In this paper, we propose that another pathway by which aerosols can modulate the multi-scale aspect of Indian monsoons is by altering the land–atmosphere interactions. The nonlinear feedbacks due to aerosol/diffuse radiation on coupled interactions over the Indian monsoon region are studied by: (1) reviewing recent field measurements and modeling studies, (2) analyzing the MODIS and AERONET aerosol optical depth datasets, and (3) diagnosing the results from sensitivity experiments using a mesoscale modeling system. The results of this study suggest that the large magnitude of aerosol loading and its impact on land–atmosphere interactions can significantly influence the mesoscale monsoonal characteristics in the Indo-Ganges Basin.     

土地利用和覆被变化对岩溶区土壤CO2浓度的影响

通过选择3个具有不同地质背景、气候条件等环境特征的山西汾阳马跑-郭庄岩溶泉域、湖南湘西大龙洞地下河流域、广西桂江流域,对流域内具有代表性的不同土地利用方式和覆被类型下垫面土壤20~50cm深处CO2浓度进行检测。结果显示,土地利用方式和覆被变化对3个流域岩溶土壤中20cm、30cm、40cm和50cm深处CO2浓度具有明显的影响作用:湖南湘西大龙洞地下河流域多数样地土壤CO2表现为随土层的加深先增加后降低的双向梯度;山西马跑-郭庄泉域玉米地的土壤CO2浓度比种植马铃薯的高,且随着覆被条件由草地→灌丛→林地的改善,土壤的扰动性变小,CO2浓度差趋于减少,变幅趋于稳定。各个流域相同覆被类型,群落结构和优势种变化越小,土壤CO2浓度变幅越小。      

The co-production of livelihoods and land use change: Case studies from South Africa and Ghana

Land use change and livelihood systems are often analyzed separately or with one “driving” the other. This “driver-feedback” relationship has been buttressed by approaches to social process that are often far too static. Actors are confronted with a bundle of choices that they must negotiate as they create pathways of change. These choices are always bound up in relations of power and the knowledges that are the conditions for and results of these relations. We suggest that land uses and livelihood are different manifestations of the social processes by which individuals and groups negotiate the everyday conditions that shape their lives. We propose a framework that extends current understandings of the relationship between land use change and livelihoods by treating social relations of power as the entry point into this complex relationship. We underpin our arguments with empirical examples from South Africa and Ghana that locate power/knowledge relations in the context of social change in both study areas.     

渭河流域1980~2010年土地利用变化的时空异质性研究

土地利用变化是地球关键带地表过程演变的重要表征。本研究基于渭河流域1980年、1995年和2010年3期土地利用数据、地形数据及河流汇演关系将研究区划分为渭河上游段、泾河段、北洛河段和渭河中下游段4个空间区域,综合利用土地利用动态度、类型动态趋势和土地利用转移矩阵的方法,定量分析了该流域的土地利用变化时空异质特征,并结合地形分布分析了其变化规律。结果表明：渭河上游段地形以丘陵为主,中下游段以山地和平原为主,而泾河段和北洛河段均以丘陵和平原为主。各空间区域土地利用类型均以耕地、草地和林地为主,土地利用转移也主要发生于这3种类型之间。1980~2010年间,渭河流域的耕地面积整体呈减小趋势,草地和林地面积整体上呈增长趋势,而建设用地面积持续增长。其中,耕地面积减少以渭河中下游段最为明显,减少498km²,草地面积在渭河上游段与北洛河段减少,而在中下游段和泾河段有所增长,林地面积在4个区域中均呈增长趋势。在研究时段内,地形分区影响着土地利用类型的转化特征：山地区以耕地向林地和草地的转化为主;丘陵区以草地和耕地向林地的转化为主;平原区则主要以耕地向林地、草地和建设用地三者的转化为主,其中建设用地为主要转入类型。

     

中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响

受气候变暖持续影响, 中国冰冻圈水文过程正在发生着显著变化。在梳理已有过去冰冻圈融水变化基础上, 重点分析了冰冻圈融水径流未来变化特点, 尤其是对冰川融水拐点及温升2 ℃阈值情况下, 到2050年和21世纪末, 冰川融水的可能变化进行了辨析, 进而研判了冰冻圈水文变化对流域、 重点是干旱区内陆河流域水安全的影响。研究表明, 中国未来大部分流域冰川融水径流总体呈现减少趋势, 并呈现冰川径流持续减少、 在不久的将来出现峰值和持续增加三种情况; 单条冰川融水可能会出现拐点, 而且拐点是否出现和出现的时间与升温速率和冰川面积大小有关; 在流域尺度上, 冰川覆盖率较大、 大型冰川面积占比较高的流域, 到2050年融水径流持续稳定增加; 冰川规模较小的流域, 冰川径流峰值早已出现; 介于上述两种情况之间的大多数流域, 冰川融水峰值在2020 - 2030年相继出现或变化呈现不显著增加或减少, 相对稳定; RCP情景温升2 ℃阈值下, 到21世纪末, 西北干旱区冰川融水量减少34% ~ 74%。冰冻圈水文变化导致水源涵养能力下降、 径流补给量减少、 对水资源的调节作用减弱、 流域径流变化幅度增加、 发生旱涝的风险增加、 春汛提前进而影响用水制度。     

Evaluation of shallow geothermal energy resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain based on land use

To discover the characteristics, distribution and potential of shallow geothermal energy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain area. This paper, based on a large amount of data collection and field investigations, evaluateed the shallow-layer geothermal energy in the study area through the analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive index method. Based on suitability zoning results superimposed with 1:100 000 land use data, the study area is divided into encouraged, controlled, restricted and prospective mining areas regarding the development of shallow geothermal energy, and the economic availability of shallow geothermal energy in the encouraged and controlled areas are evaluated. The results show that the shallow geothermal energy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain can meet the heating and cooling demand of 6×108 m~2 of buildings, equivalent to 1.15×10~7 t of standard coal, thus reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2.73×10~7 t and reducing sulfur dioxide emissions by 1.95×10~5 t. According to the development and utilization mode, the energy demand level and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development plan, the development and utilization of geothermal resources in the plain area has two types: Urban concentrated mining areas and rural scattered mining areas. The scale and level of intensive utilization of regional geothermal resources are of great significance.     

气候与土地利用变化对涟水流域径流的影响

以涟水流域为研究对象,选用1990年、2000年、2010年三期土地利用数据资料,将1985-2014年30 a气象条件相应划分为1985-1994年、1995-2004年、2005-2014年三段气象背景时期,并组合细分为7种模拟情景,应用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟不同情景下的径流量,探讨气候和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响。利用PSO粒子群优化算法,以克林效率系数KGE为目标函数,通过湘乡站实测径流数据校准模型参数。运用p-factor、r-factor评价模拟的不确定性,采用相关系数R²、纳什效率系数NS和偏差百分比PBIAS评价模型模拟效果,评价结果表明不同土地利用情景下,校准期和验证期的模拟效果均达到可信程度,模拟的不确定性较小。组合情景间模拟分析结果表明,1985-2014年30 a间,气候变化使涟水流域径流不断减少,土地利用变化使径流有所增加,年径流深总体呈现下降趋势。气候变化对涟水流域径流变化的影响贡献率在逐渐上升,从71.4%上升到了86.3%。土地利用变化对径流变化的影响贡献率则相应下降,从28.6%降低至13.7%。因此,在气候变化背景下,科学管理流域水资源还需要充分考虑流域土地资源空间配置结构和利用方式。     

土地利用变化对流域生态需水的影响分析

人类对流域生态系统的干预,导致季节性淹没区减少,天然湿地丧失,生态环境的恶化和生物多样性锐减,土地利用方式发生了剧烈变化。以流域整体性理论、物种多样性理论、物种耐性理论和景观生态学理论为基础,分析了土地利用方式对生态需水的影响。结果表明,河岸天然植被生态系统通过削减洪峰、增补枯水和截留污染物的作用,来影响流域的水量分配和水质改善,使流域受水分不足威胁的程度降低,即在更大的时间与空间尺度上,保证了流域对生态水的需求。因此,为了流域生态系统的可持续发展,应采取保护湿地、河溪森林植被、水陆交错带等合理的土地利用方式。     

新疆于田绿洲地表温度对土地利用/覆被的响应监测

以于田绿洲为例,以Landsat TM/ETM+图像为主要的数据源,提取了于田绿洲的土地利用/覆被信息.利用单窗算法反演了地表温度,综合分析了2001-2011年间于田绿洲±地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)及其对地表温度的影响,同时利用像元分解模型得出绿洲植被覆被度,并分析了其与地表温度的关系.结果表明:在2001-2011年的10 a期间,于田绿洲最主要的土地利用类型是以人类为主导因素的,同时以自然利用类型向人工利用类型的转化最为显著.耕地、水体等以人类为主导因素的土地利用类型面积增加了809.65 km2,盐渍地等以自然为主导的土地利用类型面积减少了758.76 km2,人为影响是于田绿洲较主要的驱动因素.于田绿洲土地利用/覆被变化改变了地表温度的空间分布特征,在土地利用/覆被类型发生变化的区域,地表温度有升有降,但总体上地表温度的空间分布与土地覆被类型的空间变化格局存在明显的一致性.地表温度的变化与植被覆被度的变化有关,证明了植被在改变下垫面热量分布的格局中扮演着重要作用.     

土地利用变化对典型碳酸盐岩流域风化碳汇的影响——以云南小江岩溶流域研究为例

地球陆地岩石的风化过程要消耗大气或土壤中的CO2,成为大气CO2巨大的汇。以中国云南小江流域为例,研究了典型岩溶地区碳酸盐岩风化吸收CO2(碳汇)强度与土地利用变化之间的关系。选择了有代表性的12块土地及其利用变化的25个地下水监测点,分析了1982年、2003年这些监测点的600多组地下水化学监测数据。12块土地利用变化中,有4块为林地变耕地,3块未利用地变耕地,4块未利用地变林地,1块为林地变建设用地。研究结果表明:首先,土地利用变化后,地下水化学成分变化极大;第二,将风化过程中吸收大气或土壤中CO2的那部分C(用HCO3-表示)与整个风化过程中参与风化的全部C的百分比,定义为碳酸盐岩化学风化对土壤或大气CO2吸收强度(简写为CIS,%),推出了计算式子为CIS(%)=100×[1-(Ca2++Mg2+)total waters)/HCO3-total waters]。估算了4种土地利用类型从1982年到2003年22年间CIS的变化值。结果是,(1)林地的CIS比未利用地高,前者为48.84%,后者47.66%;(2)未利用地转变为耕地后,CIS平均减少了7.85%;林地转变为耕地后,CIS平均减少了8.59%;林地转变为建设用地后,CIS平均减少了1.66%,而未利用地转变为林地后,CIS平均增加了1.74%。(3)讨论了土地利用变化对CIS的影响机理,如未利用地或林地变为耕地后,(NH4)2PO4、CO(NH2)2、NH4NO3、(NH4)2SO4等氮肥的大量使用,硝化后产生的硝酸等干扰或抵消了碳酸对碳酸盐岩化学风化作用,导致了岩溶地下水中Ca2+,Mg2+离子的相对增多,HCO3-离子相对减少,促使CIS减小。     

A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China

This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past 20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

猫跳河流域土地覆被变化及其驱动力定量研究

应用RS、GIS以及GPS集成技术,以黔中喀斯特地区的猫跳河流域为对象,研究了这一地区从1973—2002年间土地利用／覆被的变化过程,并利用典型相关分析法研究了形成这种变化的驱动因素。研究表明,从1973—1990年,猫跳河流域耕地、建设用地、有林地、水域以及裸岩地呈增长趋势,而灌木林和灌草地趋于减少,流域生态环境质量下降。进入20世纪90年代后,有林地、灌草地、建设用地、水域持续增加,灌草地总量变化不大,耕地总量和裸岩地减少,流域生态环境质量趋于好转。定量分析表明,1990年以前,驱动建设用地变化的因素是总人口的变化,1990年以后则是农业产值;1990年以前驱动耕地变化的是农业人口的增长,1990年以后则和粮食产量的提高有关。      

Impact of land use change on groundwater quality in a typical karst watershed of southwest China: a case study of the Xiaojiang watershed,Yunnan Province

The impact of land-use change on the quality of groundwater in the Xiaotjiang watershed, China was assessed for the period 1982–2004. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 monitoring points across the watershed, and were representative of the various changes, determined by remote sensing and geographical information systems. The results indicate that 610 km² (60% of the total watershed area) were subject to land-use change during the period. The most important changes were the conversion of 135 km² of forested land to cultivated land, and 211 km² of unused land to cultivated land. The main impact was ascribed to diffuse pollution from fertilizers applied to newly cultivated land, and from building development. Overall the groundwater pH value was significantly increased, as were the concentrations of ions , , , , and Cl⁻ in groundwater whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. More precisely, in the regions where forested land and unused land were converted into cultivated land, the pH value and the concentrations of Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ increased whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. However in the region where cultivated land was converted into construction land, the pH value and the concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ increased.

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Résumé  L’impact des changements de l’utilisation du territoire sur la qualité de l’eau souterraine dans le bassin versant de Xiaojiang, en Chine, a été évalué de 1982 à 2004. Des échantillons d’eau souterraine ont été récoltés à partir de 30 points d’observation éparpillés sur le bassin, représentant les divers changements déterminés par télédétection et système d’information géographique. Les résultats indiquent que 610 km² (soit 60% de la surface du bassin) ont été sujets à des modifications de l’utilisation du territoire sur cette période. Les changements les plus importants furent la conversion de 135 km² de forêt et 211 km² de terres inutilisées en terres cultivées. Le principal impact est attribué à la pollution diffuse des engrais utilisés en agriculture et pour les batiments. De manière générale le pH de l’eau souterraine a augmenté significativement, ainsi que les concentrations des ions , , , , et Cl⁻, tandis que les concentration en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Plus précisément dans les régions transformées en terres cultivées, la valeur du pH et les concentrations en Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté tandis que les concentrations en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Toutefois dans les régions cultivées converties en zones de construction, le pH et les concentrations en Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté.

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Resumen  El impacto del cambio en uso de la tierra en la calidad del agua en la cuenca Xiaojiang, China fue evaluado para el periodo 1982–2004. Muestras de agua subterránea fueron tomadas de 30 puntos de monitoreo a través de la cuenca, y fueron representativas de los múltiples cambios, determinados por sensores remotos y sistemas de información geográfica. Los resultados indican que 610 km² (60% del área total de la cuenca) estaban sujetos a cambios de uso de la tierra durante el periodo estudiado. Los cambios más importantes fueron la conversión de 135 km² de bosques a tierra cultivada, y 211 km² de tierra sin uso (ociosa) a tierra cultivada. El impacto principal fue causado por contaminación difusa de fertilizantes aplicados a la tierra recientemente cultivada, y a desarrollo de construcciones. En general el pH en agua subterránea creció significantemente, al igual que las concentraciones de los iones , , , , y Cl⁻ en agua subterránea mientras que las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Mas precisamente, en las regiones donde bosque y tierra ociosa fueron convertidas en tierra cultivada, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron mientras las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Sin embargo en la región donde tierra cultivada fue convertida en construcciones, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron.

     

中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响*

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