Study on Uncertainties of Seismicity Parameters b and v4 in Seismic Statistical Zones

For several seismic statistical zones in North China,the key factors causing uncertainties in the important seismicity parameters b and ν_4 and the features of their uncertainties are discussed in this paper.The magnitude of uncertainty is also analyzed.It can be seen that the key influencing factors are statistical period,methods of processing statistical samples,lower limit magnitude and the annual average occurrence ratio of large earthquakes.The variation ranges of b and ν_4 in the Tancheng-Lujiang zone are as high as 0.2 and 1.4 respectively,which are similar to those in the Fenwei zone.They are much smaller however in the Hebei zone because of its sufficient statistical samples.     

Analysis of Tectonic Conditions for Strong Earthquakes and Prediction of Seismic Risk of Seismogenic Fault Zones in the Northern Part of North China

The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to different fields have been described by predecessors.In this paper,the authors try to study and evaluate all the tectonic condition factors for strong earthquakes by the methods of fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis.Taking the northern part of North China as an example,the authors make a comprehensive digital analysis of all the quantitative and semi-quantitative tectonic factors.The credibility values of all strong earthquakes with different magnitudes are given after statistical analysis and calculation.Forty-one fault zones in the study region are quantitatively analyzed,and the potential seismogenic fault zones,maximum magnitude,and risk of earthquake occurrence in the near future are assessed.The result of synthetic evaluation,based on all tectonic conditions of different categorie     

Statistical Analysis on Depth Distribution Model of Earthquake Hypocenters

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth <70 km) data, recorded with orientation precision grades 1 and 2 by modern instrument and containing depth information after 1970, are selected as statistical samples, meanwhile, North China seismic region, Central China seismic region, South China seismic region, Xinjiang seismic region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau seismic region are chosen as statistical units to study the depth distribution characteristics of shallow earthquakes. Considering the differences of depth distribution characteristics of earthquakes with different magnitudes, the following magnitude intervals are adopted to analyze earthquakes with different magnitude scales, respectively: M S=2.0～2.9, M S=3.0～3.9, M S=4.0～4.9, M S=5.0～5.9 and M S=6.0～6.9. The results show that hypocenter depths are normally distributed by and large around the mean depth of the corresponding seismic region. The probabilistic distribution curves of earthquake depth in West China are wider than those in East China. The probabilistic distribution deviation, σ, of West China is greater than those of East China, that is, earthquakes in West China have a wider range in terms of depth. There is also a tendency that the absolute value of mean hypocenter depth increases with the magnitude by and large.     

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of the b-value in the Hetao Seismic Belt

Focusing on the b-value as the research target and under the theoretical framework that the b-value is determined by stress state and medium properties, the variation characteristics of the b-value in the Hetao seismic belt are analyzed. Earthquakes with ML≥1. 5,which have occurred in the Hetao seismic belt since 1970 are selected to conduct the quantitative detection of the non-uniform temporal change of Mcusing the EMR method. Based on the actual situation of seismic activity,the lower limit magnitude is set as ML2. 0 to calculate the b-value. The temporal variation of the b-value is calculated and scanned using the least square method. The results show that there is a good corresponding relationship between the temporal variation of the b-value,strong earthquake activity,network distribution and aftershock deletion. We also calculate and scan the spatial variation of the b-value by using maximum likelihood. The results show that the spatial difference is possibly caused by stress state and crustal medium properties. The tectonic dependence of the b-value is obvious. In addition,the sufficient earthquakes samples in each magnitude interval are still a key step to improve the calculation accuracy of the b-value.     

Mathematical basis, correlativity and selection of seismicity parameters

Using the analytic expression of seismicity parameters, the dependency and correlativity between the statistical parameters and seismic frequency or seismic intensity are discussed. The statistical parameters are divided into two kinds. One kind is the regional seismicity parameter, 17 parameters are analyzed in this paper. The other kind is the seismicity distribution parameter. They are the distribution parameters of time, space and magnitude. The existent base and rationality of distribution parameters depend on the application of distribution model. We analyze and draw an analogy between the natural probability, Poisson, Weibull distributions and multi-fractal analytic formula in time, space and magnitude. And some examples are given in this paper. The P value and H value of aftershock sequence attenuation, the U value and F value of earthquake swarm sequence and the entropy of information are discussed preliminarily. Another method about analyzing relationships among time-series curves are given. The resemblance relativity degree and the relativity degree of relative change slope can be used as the determining values. At last, some preliminary ideas about sifting and using for seismicity parameters are advanced in this paper.     

Statistical Characteristics of Strong Ground Motion Specified by Response Spectrum and Power Spectral Density Function

The statistical characteristics of strong ground motion specified by response spectrum and power spectral density function are studied using 190 strong-motion records of the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes in China and 138 earthquakes in the western United States.The response spectrum is normalized by the peak ground acceleration(i.e.,represented as spectral magnification factor),and the power spectral density function is described by the Kanai-Tajimi spectrum.The statistics and dependence of parameters are evaluated,and correlations between the spectral magnification factor or Kanai-Tajimi spectral parameters and the site condition,epicentral distance,or local magnitude are investigated.The statistical characteristics of spectra China and the U.S.A.are compared.Based on the results obtained the values of the statistics on spectral parameters for earthquake engineering applications in China are suggested.     

Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China (1990) and Its Explanation

The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the eart     

长江三峡地区仙女山断裂北端延伸问题探讨

The Xiannvshan fault zone, lying along the western margin of the Huangling anticline, is one of the most important fault zones in the Three Gorges reservoir area. The fault experienced strong activity during the Cenozoic Era. The question of whether the fault zone goes through the Yangtze River has been one of the key problems faced in previous studies as it has a significant influence upon the assessment of geological hazards and earthquake stability in the reservoir area. Based on tectonic and geomorphic observations along the fault zone between the Baixianchi village in Changyang county and Huangkou village in Zigui town, together with the comparisons between the geology in Guizhou and Quyuan town in the north bank of the Yangtze River and the Xiannvshan fault zone, it is suggested that the north end of this fault zone is located around Huangkou village and does not go through the Yangtze rivers northward. The evidence is as follows: ① On the basis of field data collection, it is found that the Xiannvshan Fault zone, which stretches 80km, underwent thrust movement in the Cenozoic period, resulting in ravines and fault scarps, topographically. Whereas, on the northern bank of the Yangtze River, faults are rarely found, and most of the faults are developed in the Jurassic strata,without topographical effects. Therefore, the Xiannvshan Fault zone has not stretched to the north bank of the Yangtze River. ② The fault gouge and tectonite zone were found developed on the Xiannvshan Fault zone at Baixianchi village, but only a tectonite zone was found at Zhouping village. There are also some branch faults close to the northern end of the fault zone. So, the activity of the fault zone weakened from south to north in Cenozoic. The fault zone extends northward and dies out at Huangkou. It doesn’t stretch forward any longer as indicated by continuous strata, sparse joints, and small folds, etc.     

Comparisons of GCM cloud cover parameterizations with cloud-resolving model explicit simulations

Three kinds of the widely-used cloudiness parameterizations are compared with data produced from the cloud-resolving model(CRM) simulations of the tropical cloud system. The investigated schemes include those based on relative humidity(RH), the semi-empirical scheme using cloud condensate as a predictor, and the statistical scheme based on probability distribution functions(PDFs). Results show that all three schemes are successful in reproducing the timing of cloud generation, except for the RH-based scheme, in which low-level clouds are artificially simulated during cloudless days. In contrast, the low-level clouds are well simulated in the semi-empirical and PDF-based statistical schemes, both of which are close to the CRM explicit simulations. In addition to the Gaussian PDF, two alternative PDFs are also explored to investigate the impact of different PDFs on cloud parameterizations. All the PDF-based parameterizations are found to be inaccurate for high cloud simulations, in either the magnitude or the structure. The primary reason is that the investigated PDFs are symmetrically assumed, yet the skewness factors in deep convective cloud regimes are highly significant, indicating the symmetrical assumption is not well satisfied in those regimes. Results imply the need to seek a skewed PDF in statistical schemes so that it can yield better performance in high cloud simulations.     

Methods of Determining the Seismic Spatial Distribution Functions

Several factors are selected to reflect the temporal and spatial features of seismicity in Southwest China.The measurements of the factors are all taken from the statistical relation between the factors and actual earthquakes,and make the factors possess a certain probabilistic prediction meaning and the base for mutual contrast.The effects of prediction of part of the factors have been evaluated and used to correct the factors.Three sets of seismic spatial distribution functions have been calculated by using three different methods and discussed in detail.     

Sediment organic matter source estimation and ecological classification in the semi-enclosed Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines

The large organic matter flow in tropical coastal areas is recognized as an important process in the global carbon(C)cycle.However,the nature of organic matter flow in semi-enclosed tropical estuaries remains unclear due to the various environmental processes(tidal change,river flow,waves from the sea,and internal circulation)and organic matter sources therein.Thus,sediment organic matter(SOM)sources,and their distribution pattern,are key to understanding ecosystem material flow.Our research in the Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines,a semi-enclosed estuary under large mangrove deforestation,was conducted to determine ecosystem properties through analysis of C and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and environmental factors.First,we determined that mangrove litter,microphytobenthos,and phytoplankton are the main SOM sources in the Batan Bay Estuary.Second,the estuary was classified into three ecological zones(the Bay zone,Back-barrier zone,and River zone).In addition,we estimated SOM source ratios using the Stable Isotope Analysis in R package and determined different organic matter sources in different zone.The high ratios of mangrove litter as SOM indicate that a large amount of terrestrial plant organic matter remains despite the heavy mangrove deforestation that has occurred since the 1980s,and that the Back-barrier zone consists of a different type of ecosystem that promotes accumulation of C from mangrove litter and microphytobenthos.     

Rayleigh wave phase velocity tomography and strong earthquake activity on the southeastern front of the Tibetan Plateau

To investigate the relationship between velocity structure and earthquake activity on the southeastern front of the Tibetan Plateau, we make use of continuous observations of seismic ambient noise data obtained at 55 broadband stations from the regional Yunnan Seismic Network. These data are used to compute Rayleigh wave Green's Functions by cross-correlating between two stations, extracting phase velocity dispersion curves, and finally inverting to image Rayleigh wave phase velocity with periods between 5 and 34 s by ambient noise tomography. The results show significant lateral variations in crustal and uppermost mantle structures in the studied region. Phase velocity anomalies at short periods(5–12 s) are closely related to regional tectonic features such as sediment thickness and the depth of the crystalline basement. The Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, enclosed by the Honghe, Xiaojiang and Jianchuan faults, emerges as a large range of low-velocity anomalies at periods of 16–26 s, that inverts to high-velocity anomalies at periods of 30–34 s. The phase velocity variation in the vicinity of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block suggests that the low-velocity anomaly area in the middle-lower crust may correspond to lower crustal channelized flow of the Tibetan Plateau. The spatial distribution of strong earthquakes since 1970 reveals that the Yunnan region is inhomogeneous and shows prominent characteristics of block motion. However, earthquakes mostly occur in the upper crust, with the exception of the middle-Yunnan block where earthquakes occur at the interface zone between high and low velocity as well as in the low-velocity zones, with magnitudes being generally less than 7. There are few earthquakes of magnitude 5 at the depths of 15–30 km, where gather earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher ones which mainly occur in the interface zone between high and low velocities with others extending to the high-velocity abnormal zone.     

Characteristics and variation law of wind-blown sand delivered to the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River under a changing environment

Wind-blown sand is one of the key factors affecting the evolution of sediment transport,erosion,and deposition in rivers crossing desert areas.However,the differences and complex variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of the underlying surface conditions are seldom considered in research on the river inflow of wind-blown sand over a long time period.The Yellow River contains a large amount of sediment.The Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River was selected as the research ...     

Historical earthquakes and a tsunami in Bohai Sea

Quantitative analysis on seismicity showed that there are several seismic dense zones in Bohai Sea. These seismic dense zones of modern small earthquakes behave prominent NE orientation, although a seismic dense zone with NW direction exists actually. Taking 39°N as a boundary, seismicity in the south is different from that in north of Bohai Sea. Almost all strong earthquakes and seismic dense zones are concentrated in the southern part. Based on archives and seismic dense characteristics, we amended the epicenter of strong earthquakes in 1548 and discussed about magnitude of the earthquake in 1888. Possibility of the event in 173 as a tsunami was discussed. The event in 1597 was doubted as a strong earthquake in Bohai Sea.     

Discussion about the relationship between seismic belt and seismic statistical zone

This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history,purpose,usage,delimiting principles,various presenting forms and main spectialties.Then the viewpoints are emphasized,making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method.The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too.Large differences between these two concepts exist separately in their statistical property,actual meaning,gradation,required scale,and property of refusing to overlap each other,aim and usage of delimitation.But in current engineering practice,these two concepts are confused.On the one hand,it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up;on the other hand,researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment,mechanism of earthquake generating also paues to go abead.Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper,that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting,it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and termporally inhomogeneous seismic activities,and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the comcept of seismic belt.     

Research on paleoearthquakes in Jiuxian trenches across Nankou-Sunhe fault zone in Changping County of Beijing plain

An abundance of the phenomena of tectonic deformation and paleoseismic events of different times and their recurrent interval, as well as coseismic vertical displacements is exposed in Jiuxian trenches across the Nankou-Sunhe fault zone in Changping County. The research result shows three paleoearthquakes occurring during the Holocene. They were dated as 10643 ± 250 a B.P.-9706 ± 1235 a B.P., 7894±150 a B.P.-7640 ± 650 a B.P., and 3987±100 a B.P.-3670 ± 310 a B.P., respectively. The coseismic vertical displacements are 1.0 m, 2.0 m, and 2.0 m, respectively. From a statistical formula of relation between historic earthquake magnitudes and surface seismic dislocations in North China, the magnitudes of these paleoearthquakes are inferred to be in a range from M 7.7 to M 7.9. The research shows that the Holocene fault activity in the plain can be traced in the trenches according to the micro-geomorphic features. Many micro-structural phenomena are also found in these trenches. Identification of the paleoearthquakes in the Nankou-Sunhe fault zone during the Holocene time is of significance for assessment of future seismic risk in Beijing area.     

Relocation of the MS5.7 Earthquake Sequence in Songyuan, Jilin Province, 2018 and the Analysis of Its Seismogenic Structure

The 2018,Songyuan,Jilin M_S5. 7 earthquake occurred at the intersection of the FuyuZhaodong fault and the Second Songhua River fault. The moment magnitude of this earthquake is M_W5. 3,the centroid depth by the waveform fitting is 12 km,and it is a strike-slip type event. In this paper,with the seismic phase data provided by the China Earthquake Network, the double-difference location method is used to relocate the earthquake sequence,finally the relocation results of 60 earthquakes are obtained. The results show that the aftershock zone is about 4. 3km long and 3. 1km wide,which is distributed in the NE direction. The depth distribution of the seismic sequence is 9km-10 km. 1-2 days after the main shock,the aftershocks were scattered throughout the aftershock zone,and the largest aftershock occurred in the northeastern part of the aftershock zone. After 3-8 days,the aftershocks mainly occurred in the southwestern part of the aftershock zone. The profile distribution of the earthquake sequence shows that the fault plane dips to the southeast with the dip angle of about 75°. Combined with the regional tectonic setting,focal mechanism solution and intensity distribution,we conclude that the concealed fault of the Fuyu-Zhaodong fault is the seismogenic fault of the Songyuan M_S5. 7 earthquake. This paper also relocates the earthquake sequence of the previous magnitude 5. 0 earthquake in 2017. Combined with the results of the focal mechanism solution,we believe that the two earthquakes have the same seismogenic structure,and the earthquake sequence generally develops to the southwest. The historical seismic activity since 2009 shows that after the magnitude 5. 0 earthquake in 2017,the frequency and intensity of earthquakes in the earthquake zone are obviously enhanced,and attention should be paid to the development of seismic activity in the southwest direction of the earthquake zone.     

Graded and uniform bed load sediment transport in a degrading channel

Twenty runs of experiments are carried out to investigate non-equilibrium transport of graded and uniform bed load sediment in a degrading channel. Well-sorted gravel and sand are employed to compose four kinds of sediment beds with different gravel/sand contents, i.e., uniform 100%gravel bed, uniform 100% sand bed, and two graded sediment beds respectively with 53% gravel and 47% sand as well as 22%gravel and 78%sand. For different sediment beds, the experiments are conducted under the same discharges, thereby allowing for the role of sediment composition in dictating the bed load transport rate to be identified. A new observed dataset is generated concerning the flow, sediment transport and evolution of bed elevation and composition, which can be exploited to underpin devel-opments of mathematical river models. The data shows that in a degrading channel, the sand greatly promotes the transport of gravel, whilst the gravel considerably hinders the transport of sand. The promoting and hindering effects are evaluated by means of impact factors defined based on sediment transport rates. The impact factors are shown to vary with flow discharge by orders of magnitude, being most pronounced at the lowest discharge. It is characterized that variations in sand or gravel inputs as a result of human activities and climate change may lead to severe morphological changes in degrading channels.     

Effect of fault jogs on frictional behavior: An experimental study

Studying the effect of geometrically irregular bodies on the mechanical behavior of fault activity is of significance in understanding the seismic activity along a fault zone. By using rock mechanics ex- periment with medium-scale samples, we have studied the effect of fault jogs, the most common irregularity along fault zones, on frictional behavior. The research indicates that extensional fault jog can be easily fractured because of its low strength and the fractured jog has no obvious resistance to fault sliding, and the micro-fractures occurring in the jog are indicative of stick-slip along the faults. The fault zone containing extensional jogs is characterized by velocity weakening and can be described by rate and state friction law. Compressional fault jog makes fault sliding more difficult because of its high fracturing strength, but the micro-fractures occurring in the tensile areas around fault ends at higher stress level can provide necessary condition for occurrence of stick-slip along the faults before the jog is fractured and thus act as precursors of fault instability. Compression jog can be taken as a stable indicator of fault segmentation until the jog is completely fractured and two faults are linked.     

Seismic Acquisition on the Buried-Hill Faulted Zone of the Jiyang Sag

The pattern of the subtle traps, in which oil and gas accumulated, in the buried-hill faulted zone in the Jiyang sag is very complicated, and very hard to prospect. The paper analyses the main difficulties in exploring the complicated buried-hill faulted zone of the area from a point of geology.The typical pattern of the buried-hill zone in the Jiyang sag is studied using the forward modeling.Target-orient layout design and full 3-D seismic technology, which are useful for oil and gas exploration on the zone, are put forward. Taking the exploration for oil and gas traps on the zone as an example, certain technologies and the effect of their applications about the design for target acquisition,acquisition on a wide-azimuth, point sources and point receivers are discussed.