青海省东部地区地质灾害危险性分区及评价

从1990～2004年发生在青海省东部地区的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等共计121起个例出发,分析了地形地貌、岩性、植被和降水量等因素与地质灾害的关系。研究建立了地质灾害发育因子、基础因子和诱发因子体系,实现了青海省东部地区地质灾害空间评价量化表达。将青海省东部地区地质灾害潜势度、危险度均分为四级,结果表明:研究区中潜势度小的区域占研究区面积的37%,潜势度很大的区域所占比例最小为9%;地质灾害发生与累积降水量关系密切,当累积降水量≥50mm以上时,高危险区面积占研究区面积的34%;而累积降水量在25mm以下时,以不危险或低危险区为主。     

基于GIS的大连冰雹分布与地形因子的相关分析

利用1971-2010年大连地区64个乡镇的冰雹观测资料和1:50 000数字高程模型,选择和设计对冰雹空间分布可能有影响的地形因子,如海拔高度、坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、地形切割深度等,采用数字地形分析、不规则窗口统计等方法研究冰雹分布与地形因子间的相关关系。结果表明：地形高程、西北偏西坡向和地形切割深度是影响大连地区冰雹分布的最主要地形因子。地形高程抬升下的强对流天气系统有利于降雹;西北偏西坡向有利于冰雹的形成;地形起伏显著的区域更有利于冰雹的形成和降落。建立了冰雹与地形因子间的回归方程,模拟了大连地区的冰雹空间分布,结果显示大连地区冰雹最严重区域位于瓦房店和普兰店北部地区,沿海及南部地区较少。     

河北省廊坊地区暴雨预报的地气学方法

利用1981 2011年发生在中国及周边地区4级以上地震资料和廊坊地区降水资料,首先分析了落在廊坊地区境内的地震"拍涡"和河北省境内4级以上地震引发的"震源涡"对廊坊地区降水的影响,然后进一步统计分析了由于地热涡产生和活动引起的地温场分布、变化与暴雨天气产生和落区分布关系,最后对2011年廊坊地区降水与暴雨个例进行了检验分析。结果表明,由4级以上地震引发的落在廊坊地区境内的地震"拍涡"及河北省境内4级以上地震相伴的"震源涡"可导致廊坊地区降水异常和偏多;一年中由于地震频发落在廊坊地区境内形成的多个地震"拍涡",其存在可以导致廊坊地区数月降水的异常和偏多。从地气学的角度分析,影响廊坊地区多雨和暴雨的主要地气系统是地震"拍涡"和"震源涡"。通过对2011年廊坊地区降水及暴雨个例的分析表明,掌握地下中强震活动信息,充分利用地热涡形成引起的地温场变化以及地热涡最强点("超能值")的分布,结合天气影响系统的诱发,对暴雨及其落区预报具有非常重要的预报参考价值。     

贵州高原北侧锢囚锋上一次低涡形成过程

利用常规观测资料、地面加密自动站降水资料、多普勒天气雷达资料以及NCEP1°×1°再分析资料对2017年5月22—25日一次偏北路径冷空气影响下贵州高原北侧低涡的形成机制进行探讨。结果表明:(1)地形导致冷空气回流形成地形锢囚,锢囚锋上有低涡产生,位于地面至850 h Pa的大气低层,属于暖性浅薄中-β尺度系统;(2)低涡维持2 d,降水产生在低涡中心附近,雨强不大;(3)中高层波动强迫低层涡度发展而使低涡维持;当中高层转为西北气流时,涡度发展受抑制且冷空气侵入低涡而使其减弱消亡;(4)低涡形成过程可分为地形回流、锢囚发展和减弱消亡3个阶段,与西南低涡及锋面气旋在形成机制、降水落区和强度等方面存在明显差异。     

2005年11月26日九江--瑞昌5.7级地震浅析

2005年11月26日,在江西省九江县与瑞昌市交界处发生5.7级地震,震源深度10km。宏观震中在九江县港口乡。震中烈度Ⅶ度,极震区为北东向的椭圆,烈度分布受瑞昌盆地内地形地貌条件的控制;5.7级地震的最大余震为ML5.3级,序列类型为主震—余震型,余震较丰富,余震区长轴为北西向。此次地震经历了较长期的应力应变积累过程,发生在江西分宜—黄海北部北东向ML≥4.0级地震活动带和湖北西部—江西南昌ML≥3.0级地震活动带的交汇部位,与大区域地震活动性中长期异常相关。     

2020年8月10日四川芦山夜发特大暴雨的动热力 结构及地形影响

由特殊喇叭口地形促成的四川雅安暴雨久已有名,研究颇多,而这一地区的暖区暴雨、夜发性暴雨的研究在业务预报和防灾减灾迫切需求的推动下也应加强。利用ERA5再分析资料,结合地面加密观测资料及中国气象局信息中心提供的三源融合近实时降水资料,对造成2020年8月10日四川雅安芦山的特大暴雨过程的动热力结构演变、触发机制和地形影响进行了诊断分析,揭示了弱天气尺度强迫及特殊地形影响背景下暖区暴雨的水汽、动热力结构演变及触发机制。研究得出:（1）此例暴雨属于500 hPa无明显影响系统、低层无急流背景下的东南风型暖区暴雨。在雅安“迎风坡”、“喇叭口”地形和芦山西南向“?”型峡谷地形的影响下,配合西太副高西进、东南暖湿气流加强和850 hPa弱低涡辐合气流的共同作用而诱发产生,此次降水时间短,强度大。（2）降水开始到强盛期间,始终有边界层地形作用产生的抬升速度、气旋式涡度和水平辐合与系统性垂直上升运动、涡度和散度叠加,增强了低层辐合,加剧了垂直上升运动,促使降水加强。（3）差动θ_se平流使得暴雨区对流不稳定度增强。对流抑制能量为零的高能高湿环境中,500 hPa θ_se弱冷平流也是暖区暴雨触发的因素之一;傍晚地形冷平流触发了初始对流并沿海拔高度1500米地形线分布;暴雨区上游强降水造成雷暴冷池出流叠加山风在“?”型峡谷西侧形成γ中尺度辐合线,并移至“?”型谷地内维持;冷性气流在快速下山后亦以冷池形式维持在“?”型峡谷东侧山脉附近,形成强温度梯度,这些因素触发并维持了芦山夜间特大暴雨。     

一次强降温过程中温度与降水分布及成因分析

2011年3月13-15日,冷空气入侵重庆地区引起了一次区域性强降温天气.过程显著降温区域位于重庆中西部地区,而大降水区域位于重庆中东部地区.分析表明,这种降温降雨分布特征的形成,主要是由于冷空气侵入四川盆地的路径结合地形引起的.高空横槽转竖引导槽后冷空气向南爆发,冷空气南下至河套地区后,在地形的作用下,分西北和东北两条路径侵入四川盆地,其中西北路径为主要路径,由西北路径进入盆地的冷空气,结合重庆的特殊地形,引起了盆地内重庆中西部地区的显著降温;两条路径中的冷空气在川东地区相遇后有弱锢囚锋生成,锢囚锋出现的时间与位置与大降水出现的时间与落区基本一致,诊断分析显示,锢囚锋所在区域对应着较强上升运动区和水汽辐合的大值区.锢囚锋可能是重庆中东部地区大降水产生的主要原因.     

龙岩地区一次夏季暴雨天气过程的地形影响模拟试验

利用中尺度WRF数值模式对2015年7月22日龙岩地区大暴雨过程进行数值试验,从地形对大气垂直运动、高低层水平散度以及水汽条件的影响三方面进行控制性试验与敏感性试验对比,研究了龙岩地区特殊地形对此次大暴雨的影响。结果表明,此次过程的降水分布对龙岩地区地形十分敏感,特殊地形作用能使当地降水产生明显增幅。高地形通过阻挡和摩擦作用使大气在近地面层形成堆积,为中低层大气的垂直上升运动积累能量,这种地形影响可以通过中小尺度的扰动上传到对流层顶高度;地形的作用还有利于中低层大气水平辐合、高层水平辐散作用的加强,并以波列的形式影响周围大气,这种地形对大气水平散度的影响对降水变化具有很好的指示意义;受地形影响,水汽在迎风坡有明显的累积,随着降水系统的移动在高地形区产生强降水。     

九龙低涡的初生与发展

九龙低涡的产生除青藏高原南侧边界层对偏南季风气流的摩擦作用和绕流作用外,还有更深刻的原因:偏南季风气流在九龙地区Ω地形的强迫作用下形成的气旋环流与下垫面热力作用产生的热力环流形成的近地层减压区叠置,在行星边界层内初生成浅薄系统的九龙低涡。九龙低涡初生的必要条件:Ω地形的作用,动量条件,热力条件和水汽条件。九龙低涡发展的充分条件:700hPa河套地区、青甘地区、四川盆地东北气流的作用;500hPa青藏高原东部西北气流的作用;高原横切变线的作用;九尤地区高层辐散区的作用;季风汇合带的作用。     

"海棠""麦莎""泰利""卡努"的路径与金华风雨特征分析

2005年台风“海棠”与“泰利”的移动路径和登陆地点不同于“麦莎”与“卡努”,前2次台风自东南偏东往西北偏西移动并登陆于福建中部沿海,后2次自东南往西北移动并登陆浙江中部沿海,都给浙江造成了巨大影响,但影响金华地区的风雨程度不同。经分析台风移动过程,认为西风带低槽或高压影响到副高,副高影响着台风西行或北上,在西风带低槽或副高影响较弱时,台风内力和地形影响作用加强;台风在副高带状时西行为主,块状时北上为主。分析台风路径的预报过程,认为中央气象台预报为“登陆台风”有3~4天的时效;预报较准确的登陆位置,若路径较有规则为30~54个小时,若不规则路径可能仅为3个小时。分析影响金华的台风风雨程度,认为东路台风雨量分布特征是东部大、西部小;南路台风是东南部大、西北部小;最大风力落区基本相同。地形对不同台风路径下的风雨影响分布略有不同。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.