An analytical approximation of the distribution of total hydrocarbon discoveries as a function of discovery number

Recently, Manly's method has been successfully applied to hydrocarbon exploration modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered. This method is much faster than running prolonged simulations normally required by the probabilistic model of the hydrocarbon discovery process, and the results are very accurate. This paper extends the usefulness of the approximation method by developing an approximate analytical model of the whole probability distribution of the total volume of hydrocarbons discovered. The mean and the standard deviation from Manly's approximation are used to help set the parameters of a family of beta distributions, to represent the distributions of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered from the beginning to the end of the exploration process in an area. Three real datasets—the Nova Scotian Shelf from offshore northeastern Canada, the Bistcho Play, and the Zama Play from northwestern Canada—are chosen to verify the methodology developed. Confidence intervals of the forecast for each number of discovered fields are constructed from the analytical approximation and compared with confidence intervals generated by the simulation. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show that the idea of using a family of beta distributions is a robust approximation.     

From data gathering to resources assessment: A holistic view of petroleum geology

To integrate geological data to obtain an interpretation of the geology and natural resources of an area, we need a methodology that provides a holistic approach, addressing all basic issues in geological relations as well as uncertainties that arise with the evolution of basic geological knowledge of an area.In spite of the major role played by geoinformatics—the application of mathematics, statistics, and computer science to solve geological problems—we do not yet have a properly designed method for organizing geological data, including raw data, conceptual models, modeling results, and geological integration. Such a rapid method should provide for updating of existing interpretations based on new data or new theories.A systematic view of data integration and interpretation is important in petroleum exploration and petroleum engineering. We point out the more striking tools already available but of restricted use and some of the possible solutions for known problems that still require research and development.     

Israel's petroleum discovery curve

Oil exploration in Israel began in 1953. Until 1991 a total of 263 exploration wells and 122 development wells were drilled, 3 oil fields and 5 gas fields were discovered, and 4 noncommercial oil discoveries and 1 noncommercial gas discovery were made. Proven in-place reserves amount to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). Exploration focused on six main plays: Syrian Arc anticlines; Mesozoic platform-edge, structural-stratigraphic traps; the Dead Sea graben; Early Mesozoic structures; Saqiye Group biogenic gas; and Hula Group biogenic gas. The more significant discoveries are associated with the first two plays. Ninety percent of the proven reserves were discovered by the first 71 wildcats, which constitute 27 percent of all wildcats drilled to date. During this phase of exploration, the average success was 7 percent, and the average discovery rate was 0.88 MMBOE per wildcat. Most of the following 192 wildcats were dry holes. If, as experts claim, significant reserves are still undiscovered, previous exploration must be deemed inefficient. The quantitative model of the discovery process also leads to such an assessment.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

A probabilistic method for resource appraisal in a petroleum play and its application

A probabilistic method that is based upon conditional probability theory and the laws of expectation has been developed for estimating the undiscovered oil and gas resources in a petroleum play. It takes into account the favorable geological conditions that influence the accumulation of oil and gas and those factors which influence the distribution and the quantity of undiscovered oil and gas. Information about the number and size of undiscovered resources is provided. A practical application in the Turpan-Hami Basin in northwestern China is described. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Comparing probabilistic predictions with outcomes in petroleum exploration prospect appraisal

In the oil industry, uncertainty about hydrocarbon volumes in undrilled prospects generally is expressed as an expectation curve. The curve indicates the probability of exceeding a given amount.After drilling a number of prospects conclusively, that is, we know the amount of reserves in the targets, if any, the question arises about the validity of the prediction. Since the prediction was in the form of a probability distribution, the comparison with a single actual outcome of the process is not straightforward.I propose a specific combination of mainly well-known tests that can be applied in this hindsight analysis to address the following: (1) the measure of location or expectation, (2) the probability of success (3) the shape of the distribution of the nonzero outcomes or success cases, and (4) a measure of rank correlation between predictions and outcomes. Even small numbers of drilled structures may suffice for obtaining conclusive results. Such statistical analysis provides useful feedback for those concerned with the maintenance and control of the prediction system.     

A survey of natural aggregate properties and characteristics important in remote sensing and airborne geophysics

Natural aggregate is vital to the construction industry. Although natural aggregate is a high volume/low value commodity that is abundant, new sources are becoming increasingly difficult to find and develop because of rigid industry specifications, political considerations, development and transportation costs, and environmental concerns. There are two primary sources of natural aggregate: (1) exposed or near-surface bedrock that can be crushed, and (2) deposits of sand and gravel. Remote sensing and airborne geophysics detect surface and near-surface phenomena, and may be useful for detecting and mapping potential aggregate sources; however, before a methodology for applying these techniques can be developed, it is necessary to understand the type, distribution, physical properties, and characteristics of natural aggregate deposits.The distribution of potential aggregate sources is closely tied to local geologic history. Conventional exploration for natural aggregate deposits has been largely a ground-based operation, although aerial photographs and topographic maps have been extensively used to target possible deposits. Today, the exploration process also considers factors such as the availability of the land, space and water supply for processing, political and environmental factors, and distance from the market; exploration and planning cannot be separated.There are many physical properties and characteristics by which to judge aggregate material for specific applications; most of these properties and characteristics pertain only to individual aggregate particles. The application of remote sensing and airborne geophysical measurements to detecting and mapping potential aggregate sources, however, is based on intrinsic bulk physical properties and extrinsic characteristics of the deposits that can be directly measured, mathematically derived from measurement, or interpreted with remote sensing and geophysical data. On the cover: Northward view of alluvial fans along San Luis Valley, southcentral colorado. This image was created in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Remote Sensing laboratory by digitally draping SPOT panchromatic satellite data resampled to 30 meters pixels resolution over the 124,000 USGS DEM of the Bonanza, Whle Hill, Bushnell Peak, Graveyard Guich, Klondike Mine, and Villa Grove quadrangles.     

Exploitation or 'Wise Use' of the Coongie Lakes,South Australia: Issues arising from a petroleum exploration proposal

The exploitation of natural resources within areas that are valued for their environmental qualities raises competing emotions. This paper considers a proposal to undertake petroleum exploration in an area of recognised environmental value, namely, the Coongie Lakes of far north-east South Australia. In development cases such as this, the level of inquiry needs to address environmental, social, cultural and economic issues from a range of interest groups; therefore, the process of assessment is a crucial factor in minimising conflict and meeting the wishes of the stakeholders. In the example of Coongie Lakes, the chosen method failed. This paper discusses the perspectives of the major stakeholders, the process of assessment undertaken, and the criticisms directed at this process. The apparent inadequacies of the assessment process undertaken are then highlighted, and an alternative assessment procedure suggested.     

中国海洋油气资源开发与国家石油安全战略对策

石油是中国能源安全的核心问题,随着我国石油供应对外依赖程度的增大,石油安全问题越来越突出,将会成为我国21世纪经济、社会可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。我国是海洋油气资源丰富的国家,广阔的海域中分布着近100×10⁴km²的含油沉积盆地,近海石油资源量为240×10⁸t,天然气资源量为140×10¹²m³。海洋油气资源的开发利用,将能部分解决我国油气资源进口数量。本文讨论了解决石油安全的四种模式,对我国油气安全的国际和国内条件进行了分析,提出了解决我国油气安全的战略对策。     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

A simplified spreadsheet program for estimating future growth of oil and gas reserves

Reserve growth refers to the typical increases in estimated sizes of fields that occur through time as oil and gas fields are developed and produced. Projections of the future reserve growth of known fields have become important components of hydrocarbon resource assessments. In this paper, we present an algorithm for estimating the future reserve growth of known fields. The algorithm, which incorporates fundamental reserve-growth assumptions used by others in the past, is programmed for a personal computer in the form of formulas for a spreadsheet. The primary advantages of this spreadsheet program lie in its simplicity and ease of use. We also present a library of 17 different growth functions that provides numerical models for predicting the future sizes of existing oil and gas fields in various regions of the United States. These growth functions are formatted for use in the spreadsheet program.     

A probabilistic relaxation approach for matching road networks

Geospatial data matching is an important prerequisite for data integration, change detection and data updating. At present, crowdsourcing geospatial data are attracting considerable attention with its significant potential for timely and cost-effective updating of geospatial data and Geographical Information Science (GIS) applications. To integrate the available and up-to-date information of multi-source geospatial data, this article proposes a heuristic probabilistic relaxation road network matching method. The proposed method starts with an initial probabilistic matrix according to the dissimilarities in the shapes and then integrates the relative compatibility coefficient of neighbouring candidate pairs to iteratively update the initial probabilistic matrix until the probabilistic matrix is globally consistent. Finally, the initial 1:1 matching pairs are selected on the basis of probabilities that are calculated and refined on the basis of the structural similarity of the selected matching pairs. A process of matching is then implemented to find M:N matching pairs. Matching between OpenStreetMap network data and professional road network data shows that our method is independent of matching direction, successfully matches 1:0 (Null), 1:1 and M:N pairs, and achieves a robust matching precision of above 95%.     

Probabilistic methodology for estimation of undiscovered petroleum resources in play analysis of the United States

A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained.The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels.     

“一带一路”沿线国家石油资源流动类型演变

综合运用石油自给率、流动比率等方法,以“一带一路”沿线国家为研究对象,对1995—2014年各国石油资源流动类型时空演变进行研究。结果表明：1）1995—2014年石油净补给型国家数量较为稳定,无产型或低产型国家的石油贸易倾向变化相对较小;基本自给型国家数量占比最大,1995年占比1/2,其余四个年份占比稳定在1/3;净支出型国家数量显著增加,至2014年其中有5个国家保持不变,表明这些国家的石油产量具有较大的优势。2）1995年和2014年汇地国家均为39个国家,其中有34个国家一直保持汇地职能,空间分布上呈东多西少,南多北少,东西分化以西亚、中亚、东欧为界;有14个国家一直保持源地职能,其空间分布格局与汇地相应,西多东少,南多北少,主要分布于西亚、东欧及中亚;交流地数量较少,呈分散分布,且分布地不稳定。3）从数量变化来看,研究期内汇地略有增加,源地略有减少,交流地略有增加;“一带一路”源地总出口量与汇地总进口量的比呈逐年降低趋势。     

Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going?

“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible” Lord Kelvin ca. 1895, British Mathematician and Physicist²“But what ... is it good for?” Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.³     

世界天然气资源的储、产、供需动向及我国的对策

为了积极开拓利用天然气资源的途径,本文分析了世界天然气资源及其供需动向。我国进口天然气的国际资源条件是可能的,价格是有利的。东南沿海地区从东南亚进口液化天然气和从俄罗斯进口管输天然气是经济的、可行的。中东的液化天然气将是潜力较大的进口对象。     

Accessing Flexibility: A Historical Institutional Analysis of Water Use for Oil and Gas Development in Colorado

US Mountain West Water access and allocation institutions have a history of adapting policy and practice to increase flexibility for diverse water uses. We examine how flexible access has developed over time and space by operationalizing the historical institutional (HI) theoretical and methodological framework. We trace historical water access for oil and gas (OG) development in Colorado, working from contemporary water right data to examine historical critical events, policies, and political contexts. OG water use has iteratively shaped water governance institutions in the top OG producing regions of Colorado, Weld, and Garfield Counties. The analysis suggests that to more accurately capture institutional change and continuity in resource allocation systems, an analysis of informal institutions is an essential theoretical contribution to the HI framework. While increased flexibility makes multiple uses easier, policies favor the most economically lucrative beneficial uses and generate issues of transparency, an important consideration for the public’s resource. Future practices of flexibility are contingent on market structures and institutional access mechanisms shaped during previous government policy processes, illuminating the value of the HI framework to inform future water policy.