1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件的重建*

气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。     

特枯水文年长江河口汛期盐水入侵观测分析

基于2006年汛期10月长江干流大通水文站逐时水位流量资料和长江口区现场实测水文、盐度资料,探讨了特枯水文年份在大型水利枢纽调控影响下的长江口区汛期盐水入侵及其对淡水资源的影响。结果表明:①2006年汛期10月大潮期间,外海上溯至北支的咸潮强度较大,倒灌南支严重,导致观测期间陈行水库、宝钢水库河段不存在淡水资源;②北支高盐度的咸水倒灌主要经白茆沙北水道而进入南支,长江入海冲淡水则主要由白茆沙南水道下泄入南支,两股不同性质的水流在白茆沙尾部汇合,其影响范围可到南港吴淞口;③观测期间,外海高盐水团经南北槽上溯,其强度和上溯距离可影响到吴淞口,致使除吴淞口附近水域存在淡水资源外,南港吴淞口以下河段皆为高盐水体覆盖。     

中国极端降水事件的区域性和持续性研究

利用中国542个站1960-2003年逐日降水资料,分析中国极端降水事件的区域性和持续性,研究发现:滇西藏东一带极端降水的持续性较好,但该地区极端降水的区域性较差;长江以南地区夏季极端降水的区域性与持续性均较好,容易导致区域性洪涝灾害的发生;东南沿海冬季极端降水的区域性与持续性均较好,易形成成片且持续时间在3d或3d以上的极端(较强)降水事件;黄河中下游秋季极端降水的区域性与持续性均较好,该地区秋季发生洪涝的可能性较大;除新疆以外,东北、华北以及西北等大部分北方地区极端降水的持续性以及区域性均较差。     

中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征

使用1951-2004年中国738个测站逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,分析了不同持续时间的极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明,极端降水事件多发于35°N以南,特别是在长江中下游和江南地区以及高原东南部,且在这些地区极端降水事件持续时间也较长。季节分布上,主要出现在夏季,以低持续性事件为主。在中国东部地区,持续时间越长的极端降水其强度往往越强。趋势分析表明,全国持续1d极端事件的相对频数具有上升趋势而平均强度具有下降趋势,其空间上均表现为全国大部分上升、华北和西南等地下降的趋势。持续2d以上极端事件在长江中下游流域、江南地区和高原东部等地区有显著增多和增强的趋势,而在华北和西南地区有减少和减弱趋势,但全国平均的趋势不显著。     

Changes of extreme temperature events in Three Gorges area,China

Meteorological data and heat stress indices from 1958 to 2007 in the Three Gorges area were investigated in this study. It is found that there is a (1) mild augmentation of the diurnal temperature range in the region (2) antithetical trends in mean\maximum\minimum temperatures, indicated by warmer winters and slightly cooler summers and (3) declining linear trends of the number of (very) hot days and annual frequencies of (long) heat waves, despite rising frequencies of (very) hot days and annual short heat waves. A U-shape was detected for all the climatic indices, with low values occurring mostly in the 1980s. However, spatial variations exist. Decreasing trends of hot days and frequency of heat waves were more evident in areas like Shapingba, where high annual temperatures were recorded. The finding also suggests a positive impact of the subtropical high on high temperatures and extreme temperature events.     

公元1000—2000年中国北方地区极端干旱事件序列重建与分析

利用历史文献记录重建了公元1000—2000年中国北方地区极端干旱事件序列,在此基础上分析极端干旱事件的发生特征与规律。研究得出以下结论:(1)极端干旱事件在公元1000—2000年中存在200年左右的周期波动。在15世纪中期、17世纪初期和18世纪末期存在3次极端干旱事件高发期。(2)极端干旱事件的变动与中国东部地区干湿变化相一致,在偏干的时期极端干旱事件发生次数上升,在偏湿时则下降。(3)在中世纪暖期和现代暖期,温度愈高,极端干旱事件偏多;而在小冰期,则温度偏低的时期极端干旱事件多发。(4)西风带影响下的非季风区,干湿变化与极端干旱事件的关系与华北季风区相反,这可能与所谓的“丝绸之路遥相关”和NAO(NorthAtlanticOscillation,北大西洋涛动)的影响有关。     

Growing season evapotranspiration from Tamarix ramosissima stands under extreme arid conditions in northwest China

Given the increasing threat of water shortages in the extremely arid regions (rainfall<50 mm year⁻¹) of northwestern China, growing season evapotranspiration (ET) associated with native species such as Tamarix ramosissima is of particular interest. Consequently, this study sought to evaluate the accuracy of daily ET estimates using Bowen ratio data, as well as measuring seasonal ET and development of an energy balance for a stand of T. ramosissima. Bowen ratio apparatus measurements of ET were carried out on a stand of T. ramosissima in a 2.04 km² field, which are all covered with T. ramosissima near Erdaoqiao, Ejina Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. Soil moisture content and green area index were also monitored. Daily ET could be accurately estimated from Bowen ratio data on a continuous basis over the 153-day growing season. The mean daily T. ramosissima ET over this period was 1.62 mm day⁻¹, for a seasonal total of 248.20 mm. In this extremely arid locale, the great majority of available energy dissipated over the growing season was a result of sensible rather than latent heat fluxes. While the heat storage term was the main source of energy at night and a considerable sink of energy during the daytime, the magnitude of the daily mean soil heat flux was small. Such a determination of temporal and ecosystem-specific ET patterns allows an improved prediction of ET in the desert riparian zone.     

过去500年华南地区冷暖变化记录及其对冬季温度变化的定量指示意义

整编了历史文献中记载的1400年以来华南地区霜冻灾害及冰冻灾害南界、降雪南界及日数和初／终霜冻灾害日期记录; 并结合1951年以来器测气温序列, 分析了各类记录与华南地区11~2月平均气温的相关性, 揭示其对温度变化的定量指示意义。结果表明: 华南地区的霜冻灾害南界、冰冻灾害南界、降雪南界和降雪日数可较好地指示该区域的温度变化; 且24°N以南地区(包括广东、广西、台湾中南部和海南)的最早与最晚霜冻灾害日期对华南地区温度变化亦具有指示作用。其中霜冻灾害南界、冰冻灾害南界、降雪南界向南推进1个纬度, 华南11~2月平均气温分别约低0.23℃、0.41℃和0.40℃; 南岭两侧50km范围内的降雪日数每多(少)10天, 华南11~2月平均气温约低(高)0.22℃。受原始记载缺失及距今越近、记录数量越多等的影响, 1400~1500年间有记录的年份只有7年, 而1501~1950年间有记录的年份则有309年。1951年以来, 冰冻灾害和降雪南界从未到海南, 霜冻灾害南界到海南岛的年份有8年; 而1501~1950年间, 冰冻灾害南界虽也从未到达海南岛, 但降雪南界有5年、霜冻灾害南界有22年到达海南岛, 且整个区域的初(终)霜冻灾害平均日期也早(晚)于1951年以后。这为下一步重建这一地区更长时段的年分辨率温度序列提供了重要依据。     

The role of extreme events in evolution

Evolutionists have often had a marked tendency to think that, in the course of time, planetary events were not very different from those occurring during a human life. However, when a ‘non-human’ timescale is used, the history of our planet appears profoundly and frequently disturbed by extreme events. These events, even not always instantaneous, impose – because of their amplitude – a severe sorting, not between individuals of a species, but between species, or even between phyla. In the face of an extreme event, intraspecific diversity counts little: it is the interspecific diversity that makes the difference. As shown by mass extinctions, extreme events open ecological niches and redistribute the cards of life, giving survivors opportunities to radiate. The capacity to cope with extreme ecological conditions favours certain species in ecosystems, not certain individuals in populations. This is not a macroevolutionary process in terms of acquiring new adaptations, but a macroevolutionary process in terms of sorting entire sections of life. The most important is perhaps that the current ‘mediatisation’ of a limited number of mass extinctions dissimulates less important extinctions caused by less extreme and more localized events that were possibly responsible for many changes in the composition and structure of communities throughout the evolution. The term of ‘pre-adaptation’ has been neglected, because it gives an impression of finalism, but it expresses well that, when an unexpected event occurs, a particular species has or has not the ‘right genes’ to continue to sustain viable populations. The role of extreme events in modifying the course of evolution should not be underestimated.     

Permian biospheric events in Northeast Asia

An analysis of the dynamics of diversity of bivalve species in Northeast Asia in the Permian period allowed us to reveal a number of events when it significantly increased or decreased. Four major mass extinction events were established for bivalves: at the end of the Early Permian, in the Early Capitanian age, at the the Capitanian-Wuchiapingian boundary and at the end of the Late Permian. Along with extinction events, five events of taxonomic radiation/innovation were distinguished: Early Asselian, Middle Kungurian, Early Roadian, Late Wordian, and Early Changhsingian. Revealing of these biotic events has been confirmed by the dynamics of biodiversity in other major groups of Permian fauna (foraminifers, brachiopods, ammonoids). Moreover, they are evidenced in different basins by changes in the character of sedimentation, isotope parameters, eustatic variations and other environmental factors. Most of the events can be traced far beyond Northeast Asia. Their manifestation is associated with general reasons (variations in endogenous regime of the Earth and associated stress effects on the biota). According to this, results of studying these events can be used for global correlations.     

National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan

Extreme climatic events are likely to adversely affect many countries throughout the world, but the degrees among countries may be different. China and Japan are the countries with high incidences of extreme weather/disaster, both facing with the urgent task of addressing climate change. This study seeks to quantitatively compare the impacts of extreme climatic events on socioeconomic systems (defined as vulnerability) of the two countries by simulating the consequences of hypothetical same degree of electricity disruption along with extreme events. To do that, two computable general equilibrium models are constructed, by using which three-stage scenarios are simulated for China and Japan, respectively. The results reveal that China and Japan have unequal socioeconomic vulnerabilities to extreme events. (1) Negative impact of the same degree of power outages is bigger on China’s socioeconomic system than on that of Japan, and this difference is more obvious in the very short-run scenario. (2) The decline of China’s GDP, total output, and employment levels is 2–3 times higher than that of Japan, while the difference of the resident welfare levels is sharper, which of China drops 3–5 times of Japan. (3) Structural factors are the main reason for vulnerability differences between China and Japan, including the differences of expenditure structure, factor input structure for production of life requirement sectors, material and energy dependence for the production of industrial sectors, and usage structure of services outputs. Based on these findings, some policy implications and recommendations for fairness issues on climate change adaptation are proposed.     

Intra-annual distribution and decadal change in extreme hydrological events in Xinjiang, Northwestern China

We examined intra-annual characteristics and decadal change of extreme hydrological events occurring from 1901 to 2010 in Xinjiang, China, using concentration degree, concentration index, and Mann–Kendall tests. The results indicated that the concentration index in Xinjiang reached a maximum in summer for all areas, demonstrating that extreme hydrological events occurred mainly during summer (although Altay also showed a high winter concentration index). Intra-annual distribution was most concentrated in Turpan and Urumqi, followed by Kuytun–Shihezi and Aksu, with the concentration degree smallest in Altay. The frequency of extreme hydrological events exhibited an obvious increasing trend from 1901 to 2010, particularly post 1970s. Based on the results obtained in this study, the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of extreme hydrological events are expected to increase over time. In addition, the concentration degree and concentration index used to analyze intra-annual distribution of extreme hydrological events were proven to be reliable and will be useful for future studies.     

地基GPS遥感的成都地区夏季可降水量的日循环合成分析

利用成都地基全球定位系统(GPS)观测网2004年7~9月的观测数据,结合自动气象站获得的气象资料计算出GPS遥感的可降水量(PWV).与气象探空站观测资料算出的可降水量进行对比,确定出本次GPS遥感可降水量的精度为3.09 mm.并对成都、郫县夏季PWV的日循环特征进行了合成分析.结果表明:PWV呈明显的日循环,最小值出现在8:00(北京时间),成都和郫县分别为40.5 mm和35.0 mm;最大值出现在17:00左右,成都和郫县分别为43.5 mm和38.0 mm.白天PWV的变化较大,夜间相对稳定,日变幅为3 mm.在盛夏静稳型天气下,成都地区的PWV日循环特征与地面气温基本一致,皆受太阳辐射日变化的控制.降水日变化的一个显著特点是降水主要发生在夜间,当PWV在下午达到最大之后,主降水阶段开始,使PWV明显减少,同时使地面空气比湿迅速增大;当PWV下降到一个稳定状态后,主降水过程随之结束.大气水汽总量的积累和释放与地面降水有较好的对应关系,PWV的持续性递增和持续性递减预示着降水的开始和结束.     

过去600年中国西南地区极端旱涝事件的重建与分析

以历史文献为主要资料,采用百分位阈值法重建了过去600年（1400~2000年）中国西南地区发生概率为10%的极端旱涝事件序列,发现：1700年是西南地区极端旱涝事件的转折点,之前极端干旱年份多于极端洪涝年份,之后极端洪涝年份多于极端干旱年份。现代暖期,极端旱涝事件发生频率与强度偏高,但皆未超过历史时期的峰值。在偏暖湿时,极端旱涝事件偏少,极端洪涝年多于极端干旱年;在偏冷干时,极端旱涝事件均较多,极端干旱年发生概率高于极端洪涝年;在小冰期和现代暖期内极端旱涝事件有不同的冷暖对应模式。西南地区极端旱涝事件的发生与亚洲季风有着密切的关系,且南亚夏季风的影响更为突出,1700年前后极端旱涝事件的转折对应了南亚夏季风的转折。南亚夏季风偏强时,极端旱涝事件偏少且极端洪涝事件发生概率高于极端干旱事件,南亚夏季风偏弱时则反之。ENSO在年际尺度上对极端旱涝事件发生有重要影响。PDO在年代际和多年代际尺度上通过影响亚洲季风,进而影响到西南地区极端旱涝事件。

     

Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip,India during monsoon and extreme events

Spectral and statistical wave parameters obtained from the measured time series wave data off Paradip, east coast of India during May 1996–January 1997 were analysed along with MIKE 21 spectral wave model (SW) results. Statistical wave parameters and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked, and the maximum energy distribution is in a narrow frequency band with an average directional spreading of 20°. Spectra for other seasons are multi-peaked, and energy is distributed over a wide range of frequencies and directions. The NCEP re-analysis winds were used in the model, and the results clearly bring out the wave features during depressions. The simulated wave parameters reasonably show good match with the measurements. For example, the correlation coefficient between the measured and modelled significant wave height is 0.87 and the bias −0.25.     

青藏高原唐古拉地区暖季土壤水分对地表反照率及其土壤热参数的影响

为了研究青藏高原暖季土壤水分对冻土区地表热状况的影响,选取2010-2012年5-9月在青藏高原唐古拉气象场获取的气象及其活动层数据,分析了表层土壤水分对地表反照率以及土壤热参数的影响.结果表明：唐古拉站暖季表层土壤含水量集中在0.15～0.27之间,地表反照率值集中在0.14～0.24之间,日平均土壤热导率的波动范围在0.9～2.0 W·m^-1·K^-1之间,土壤热容的波动范围主要集中在0.8×10⁶～1.8×10⁶ J·m^-3·K^-1之间,而土壤热扩散率则主要集中在0.6×10^-6～2.2×10^-6 m2·s^-1之间.土壤水分对地表反照率影响较大,随着土壤水分的增长,地表反照率呈现出明显的减小趋势.土壤水分对地表反照率的影响还受到植被生长周期的影响,土壤水分和地表反照率之间的关系在植被枯萎期和生长期有明显的差异性.唐古拉地区土壤热参数也明显受到土壤水分变化的影响,随着土壤水分的增加,土壤热导率、热容和热扩散率都为增大趋势,但是土壤水分对土壤热导率的影响较为显著,而对土壤热扩散率的影响则不显著.     

Use of sacrificial embankments to minimize bridge damage from scour during extreme flow events

The leading cause of bridge failure has often been identified as bridge scour, which is generally defined as the erosion or removal of streambed and/or bank material around bridge foundations due to flowing water. These scour critical bridges are particularly vulnerable during extreme flood events, and pose a major risk to human life, transportation infrastructure, and economic sustainability. Retrofitting the thousands of undersized and scour critical bridges to more rigorous standards is prohibitively expensive requiring effective yet economical countermeasures. This research tested the efficacy of using approach embankments as intentional sacrificial “fuses” to protect the bridge integrity and minimize damage during large flow events by allowing the streams to access their natural floodplain and reduce channel velocities. This countermeasure concept was evaluated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System models. Steady flow models were developed for three specific bridges on two river reaches. Streamflow return period estimators for both river reaches were developed using Bayesian analysis and available United States Geological Survey stream gauge data to evaluate sacrificial embankments under non-stationary climatic conditions. The use of sacrificial embankments was determined to be a cost-effective scour mitigation strategy for bridges with suboptimal hydraulic capacity and unknown or shallow foundations. Additional benefits of sacrificial embankments include reductions in upstream flood stage and velocity.     

Preventive disaster management of extreme natural events

Several recent extreme natural events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of weak preventive disaster management. Here we analyze several factors (natural, economical, political, awareness, and preparedness) that brought about the humanitarian tragedies of the early 21st century. We discuss then the role of science in the preventive disaster management of extreme natural events.     

Groundwater discharge to the Changjiang River, China, during the drought season of 2006: effects of the extreme drought and the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam

Groundwater can play an important role in the compensation of runoff reduction due to extreme climate events such as droughts, as well as in response to anthropogenic actions such as the construction of a dam. The increase in ²²⁶Ra specific activity and the runoff from September to December in 2006 is used to estimate the total discharge of groundwater along the mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River. The total groundwater discharge was found to account for 31% of the increased discharge between Yichang and Datong. The groundwater discharge to lakes (i.e. Dongting Lake) constituted the major contribution of groundwater discharge to the mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River. More importantly, the second impounding operation of the Three Gorges Dam from 20 September to 27 October 2006 induced a water level decrease in surrounding lakes and rivers, which led to an additional groundwater discharge of 63.3?×?10⁸?m³, accounting for 85% of the total groundwater discharge in the same period. Taken together, these observations indicate that groundwater discharge along the mid-lower reaches plays an important role in maintaining stream flow in the drought season, especially in extreme drought years or in response to human activities.     

Effects of water table changes on soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes during the growing season in freshwater marsh of Northeast China

A field control experiment was carried out to determine the influence of water table changes on soil CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions in Calamagrostis angustifolia freshwater marsh in Northeast of China. The results showed that the water depth of 5 cm below the ground surface increased soil CO₂ emission, but there was no significant influence of deeper water table on gas emission. CH₄ emission was accelerated by deep standing water and approached the peak in the plant booming time. This suggests that root activity has influence on CH₄ production. The result also demonstrated that both low water table level and inundated environment would inhibit N₂O emission. Comparing the total global warming potential of three gases under different conditions, it can be concluded that maintaining a comparatively steady water table near the soil surface can benefit soil carbon sequestration in the C. angustifolia marsh, and decrease of the greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere.