Anisotropic characterization of macroseismic fields

A methodology for the anisotropic characterization of macroseismic fields is proposed, in order to evaluate seismic hazard, based on the real geometry of the isoseismals of the field. The proposed methodology, independent of the macroseismic intensity attenuation law, allows both for a single field and for several fields in the same source zone, the determination of minimum and maximum attenuation values and of the relative directions.     

Studies on the contribution of some geological factors to seismic hazard

The present study is primarily meant to make a separation of the amplification effects in the intensity distribution within the macroseismic field function of their different causes, i.e. the activation of some regional tectonic lines during the seismic motion and local seismogeological conditions.With this end in view, the methodology used consists of filtering the direct macroseismic observations by means of the weighted mean-values method and outlining the regional and local field anomalies.The regional anomaly map of the macroseismic field of the 4 March 1977 Vrancea earthquake, including the southern and south-eastern part of the Outer Carpathian Zone, has been analyzed. Some dislocations, located in the platform basement, which functioned as seismic energy amplifiers during the event, have been identified.The results obtained can be used in seismotectonic and microzoning studies.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

Macroseismic Surveys in Theory and Practice

Macroseismology is the part of seismology that collects and evaluates non-instrumental data on earthquakes, i.e., effects on people, objects, buildings and nature. The methods that seismologists use for collecting and evaluating the macroseismic data are often based on long (trial-and-error) experience more than on some formal procedure. Until very recently manuals or guidelines on how to do a macroseismic survey were rare and often superficial. After an earthquake is felt in some region, the data are usually collected by means of questionnaires. Field survey is an obligatory tool that complements the questionnaires in the case of a damaging earthquake. An overview of the approaches to deriving the earthquake parameters (epicentre and barycentre, epicentral intensity, magnitude, depth, source parametres) from macroseismic data, as well as a review of some existing practices is given.     

The earthquake of June 1, 1905, Shkodra, Albania; Intensity distribution and macroseismic epicentre

The earthquake at Shkodra, on June 1, 1905, represents one of the strongest seismic phenomena which has occurred in Albania. This quake has attracted the attention of seismologists of various countries, some of whom have made special studies of it.It is shown that the mean epicentral intensity of this earthquake was 9 degrees (MSK-64 scale) and that the macroseismic epicentre is situated near the Trush village (42° 02′N 19°30′E).These results are based on the macroseismic data gathered from different sources: 40 photographs which show the damage caused by this earthquake in the Shkodra city of that time and which were first brought to light in 1972 (some of them are published in this paper) and on the data of seismological expeditions to the Shkodra and Lezha districts.This present paper is intended to demonstrate that soil conditions strongly influence the observed intensity even at very short distances from the epicentre. The difference of the observed intensity may be up to 2 degrees between firm (limestone, flysch) and loose soil conditions.     

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

Macroseismic intensity attenuation for crustal sources on romanian territory and adjacent areas

The macroseismic intensity attenuation (m.i.a.) laws for the main seismic provinces with crustal foci of the Romanian territory and adjacent areas were established. The input data consist of MSK-64 intensities of 18 earthquakes with epicentral/maximum intensity in the range V to X degrees (MSK scale), whose isoseismal maps were available.The attenuation was analyzed as a function of distance and azimuth and from the three main attenuation formulas (logarithmic, exponential, and power-law) (the last one was preferred, as it best fits the observed data) and, consequently, were used for each seismogenic region. The bulk of derived equations is intended to be further used in the assessment of the seismic hazards of Romania.     

Test of Source-Parameter Inversion of Intensity Data

We demonstrate that the approximate source kinematics of the San Fernando, 1971 earthquake can be back-predicted by analysing its macroseismic intensity data set (felt reports) objectively and quantitatively. This is done by inverting either the data set of the intensity values observed in all sites, or the intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique. It is shown that the kinematic characteristics found following our method (epicentral coordinates, source depth, seismic moment, rupture length, Mach number, fault plane solution) match those determined by other authors, via instrumental measurements, rather well. The prerequisite for obtaining these results is that local amplification must not affect groups of neighboring sites. It was possible to invert the U.S.G.S. ``felt reports' for the source because this data set is sufficiently uncontaminated by local site responses, and retains relevant regional traces of source effects. Isoseismal maps cannot be safely used for this task, because qualitative drawing criteria give subjective results. Isoseismals, based on incomplete space frequency samplings, give rise to spurious effects, whereas the Voronoi polygons produce easy-to-grasp, quantitative and objective, representations of macroseismic intensity data. The tests performed, up to now on a series of earthquakes, suggest that the combined use of tessellation and of our KF model is promising mostly for inverting intensities of preinstrumental earthquakes.     

The Role of Data Processing and Uncertainty Management in Seismic Hazard Evaluations: Insights from Estimates in the Garfagnana–Lunigiana Area (Northern Italy)

Significantly different estimates of seismic hazard may result for the same site as aneffect of different methodological choices underlying the adopted procedures. In orderto explore this aspect, two approaches devoted to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are considered for the evaluation of hazard in a seismic area in Northern Italy. In particular, results of a standard procedure are compared with those obtained by an innovative approach. Fundamental features of this last methodology are the extensive use of intensity data relative to seismic effects observed at the site of interest during past earthquakes and the basic role attributed to the parameterisation of uncertainty which affects the considered pieces ofinformation. The analysis indicates that the new approach supplies results significantlydifferent from those obtained from standard methodology and that these differences strongly depend on strategies adopted for data processing and for the management of uncertainties which affect input parameters.     

On an anisotropic attenuation law of the macroseismic intensity

An anisotropic attenuation law of the macroseismic intensity has been deduced, congruent with an anisotropic modelling of macroseismic fields. The results, obtained by analysing a set of earthquakes in Eastern Sicily and Southern Calabria, show a greater adaptability to the observed data as compared with those deduced using isotropic attenuation laws modified to take the anisotropy into account.     

An Anisotropic Modelling for the Determination of Regional Attenuation Coefficients

The anisotropic attenuation of macroseismic intensity for a seismogenetic zone is dealt with using a new modelling of intensity distribution. The analysis, carried out starting from the intensity maps of the earthquakes of different seismogenetic zones of Central and Southern Italy, allows the determination of the attenuation coefficients for each seismogenetic zone by an anisotropic attenuation law. The obtained results show the reliability of the proposed modelling within seismic hazard evaluation studies.     

Atlas of macroseismic maps for French earthquakes with their principal characteristics

The SIRENE macroseismic database has been utilized to draw isoseismal maps for the 140 best-documented French earthquakes, characterized by epicentral intensities of at least V (MSK) and located in all parts of the country. A study of focal depths derived from available local intensity data using an intensity versus distance decay law (Sponheuer) shows that the focal depths of most of the events considered do not exceed about 10 km. Their distribution correlates fairly well with regional dynamic geology features. A relationship is then computed between magnitude, intensity and focal distance, based on 73 instrumenta]ly recorded earthquakes (M _L between 3.3 and 6.3) and on 217 mean radius values (from 2 to 380 km) for isoseismals of intensity VIII to III (MSK). This relationship is applied to historical earthquakes contained in the database SIRENE which are characterised by their intensity only. These results are used in the evaluation as well deterministic as probabilistic of the seismic hazard on the national territory.     

Reassessing intensity of some Friuli earthquakes at the turn of the eighteenth century

During 1770–1820 Northeastern Italy was hit by a series of high intensity earthquakes affecting the Piedmont area of Friuli from Maniago to Tolmezzo. Greater knowledge of these events, which seem to be extremely circumscribed and to have damaged only a small number of localities (1776, 1789, 1794: Tramonti; 1788, 1790: Tolmezzo; 1812: Cavasso), could make a significant contribution towards defining better the potential seismic hazard in Northern Friuli. A review of these shocks has been undertaken within the framework of activities organized by the macroseismic working group of the National Group for Protection against Earthquakes (GNDT). The critical revision of the information gathered by the programme ‘analysis through the compilations’, has stressed the need for a new interpretative method and for great caution to be exercised when assessing reliable intensity degrees, to avoid possible inconsistencies in their values. This preliminary investigation allowed us to identify both doubtful and some misestimated shocks. A rough macroseismic intensity distribution pattern of each event, showing that the earthquakes were felt over an area (including Italian, Slovene and Austrian territories) coherent with the epicentre intensity, has been also delineated.     

Macroseismic study of the Potenza (southern Italy), earthquake of 5 May 1990

The aim of this paper is to define the macroseismic field of the 5 May 1990 Potenza earthquake, analysing about 3000 questionnaire forms together with the results of the direct inquiries carried out in the field. The study evidences the seismic vulnerability of the Potenza district and of the whole of southern Italy in general, due to the low resistance characteristics of the old constructions and a lack of seismic prevention. Besides, geomorphological failure increases hazardous situations at the earthquake's occurrence. This earthquake provided a good test for checking and improving the ING macroseismic data collection procedures.     

Regionalization of seismic hazard in Greece based on seismic sources

A semi-probabilistic approach to the seismic hazard assessment of Greece is presented. For this reason, a recent seismotectonic model for shallow and intermediate depth earthquake sources, based on historical as well as on instrumental data, was used. Different attenuation formulae were proposed for the macroseismic intensity and the strong ground motion parameters for the shallow and the intermediate focal depth shocks. The data were elaborated in terms of McGuire's computer program, which is based on the Cornell's method.A grid of equally spaced points at 20 km distance was made and the seismic hazard recurrence curves for various parameters of the seismic intensity was estimated for each point. Finally, seismic hazard maps for the area of Greece were compiled utilizing the entire range of recurrence curves. These maps depict areas of equal seismic hazard and for every area the analytical relations of the typeSI =f(Tm), whereSI is a seismic intensity parameter andTm is the mean return period, were determined.     

A reappraisal of the seismicity of the Maghreb countries — Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia

This paper reappraises the seismicity of Algeria and adjacent regions. It presents a general view of the geographical structure, the historical development of the seismological station network, some aspects of the effects of past destructive earthquakes, the state of knowledge of the seismicity and the seismic hazard and risk in the region under survey. Magnitude-frequency relationships for different parts of the region studied are presented as well as magnitude-intensity and intensity-attenuation relationships, semi-empirical formula. It also discusses the macroseismic information, the instrumental data and the social and economic implications of earthquakes in the Maghreb region.     

Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions

The object of this study is to consider directly the influence of regional geological conditions on the assessment of seismic hazard. It is assumed that macroseismic data at individual locations contain, in an average way, the influence of geological conditions.A Data Base referring to 199 historical (5) and instrumental (194, in the 1947–1993 period) events with macroseismic information in 1195 locations of Portugal was built. For any given seismic event, whenever macroseismic information was available at a location (town, village, etc.), an EMS-92 intensity value was estimated. To each one of those locations a geological unit, representing the most common type of soil, was assigned, based on the Geological Portuguese Map at a scale 1:500 000; the geological units were grouped into three categories: soft, intermediate and hard soils.The Data Base was used to determine the attenuation laws in terms of macroseismic intensity for the three different geological site conditions, using multiple linear regression analysis. The reasonability of the laws was tested by (i) checking residual distributions and (ii) comparing the map of isoseismals of important earthquakes with the isoseismals generated by the attenuation curves derived for each one of the three different soil classes, taking into consideration the soil class of each site. The main results of attenuation modeling are: high dispersion on macroseismic intensity data; all the models predict intensity values, for short hypocentral distances, lower than the ones observed; and for some important analyzed earthquakes and for the observed range of distances, the models confirm the expectancy that macroseismic intensity increases from hard to soft soil.The approach to obtain the hazard assessment at each location consisted in the use of the attenuation law specifically derived for the class of soil of that particular location. This method, which considers the influence of the regional geology, was illustrated with the mapping of hazard for the country for several return periods. Comparison with previous maps not taking into consideration the regional geological conditions emphasizes the importance of this new parameter. It can be concluded that (i) soil segmentation is clearly the cause for hazard increase in the region to the north of Lisbon, especially at sites with soft and intermediate soils as the ones in lower Tagus valley; the maximum increase on hazard is, in any case, less than one degree; (ii) when geological conditions are disregarded in the attenuation regression analysis, hazard pattern is similar to the one obtained for the case of hard soil everywhere.     

Surface fault traces and fault plane solutions of the May–June 1978 major shocks in the Thessaloniki area, Greece.

It is shown that the foci of the recent earthquakes in the Thessaloniki area of northern Greece are located in an arcuate seismic zone which is associated with the Serbomacedonian geologic zone. Three main lines of fracture have been observed in the epicentral area after the May–June 1978 earthquakes. Field and macroseismic observations as well as fault plane solutions for the main shock and for the largest foreshock show that both earthquakes are due to a strike slip sinistral motion with a small reverse component on a steeply dipping and trending southeast-northwest fault.     

Landslides and other surface effects induced by the 1997 Umbria–Marche seismic sequence

This paper both describes and discusses landslides and other ground effects induced by the September–October 1997 seismic sequence, which struck the Umbria and Marche regions (Central Italy). Three main events occurred on 26 September at 00:33 and 09:40 GMT, and 14 October with magnitude M_w equal to 5.8, 6.0 and 5.4, respectively; furthermore hundreds of minor but significant events were also recorded. The authors examined an area of some 700 km² around the epicentre (Colfiorito). Primary and secondary effects were observed, including surface faulting phenomena, landslides, ground fractures, compaction and various hydrological phenomena. Surface evidence of faulting reactivation was found along the well-known capable faults, to a total length of ca. 30 km. Landslides, which were the most recurrent among the phenomena induced, consisted mainly of rock falls and subordinately of rotational and translational slides, which were generally mobilised by the inertia forces during the seismic motion. The percentage of reactivated old landslides decreased as the distance from the epicentral zone increased; a similar decrease had been observed for the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (Southern Italy). The ground fracture distribution was consistent with the regional structural setting and the general pattern of macroseismic field. Numerous episodes of hydrological changes were observed within the most severely damaged area. All this evidence confirms the relevance of the study of ground surface effects for achieving a more complete evaluation of seismic hazard.     

An attempt to evaluate seismic hazard in Central-Southern Italy

A method for the evaluation of seismic hazard in a given zone, taking into account both the spreading of macroseismic effects and seismic catalogue information, is applied. A data-bank of some 500 digitized isoseisms of earthquakes having occurred in Italy between 1542 and 1986 is used. The isoseismical maps are digitized considering for each degree of intensity the length of 24 spreading rays starting from the macroseismic epicenter or barycentre of the megaseismic area. These rays are separated from each other by the same angle, i.e. every isoseism is divided into 24 equal circular sectors. The year 1542 is taken as the beginning of the time span, since this is when the first seismic event occurred for which reliable isoseismal maps are available. The epicentral intensities considered lie between theVI andXI degrees of the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale (MCS). This digitized data-bank is analyzed to achieve, for each homogeneous seismogenetic zone that has been recognized, the mean azimuthal spreadings of effects for each degree of intensity as a function of the epicentral intensity. Once a mean propagation model is obtained for each zone, this is applied to seismic events of the same zone, the isoseismal maps of which are not available. A geographic grid is defined to cover the analyzed area, and for each cell of this grid it is then possible to count the number of felt events and their degree. These effects have been evaluated either on the basis of the isoseismal maps (when available) or on the basis of the mean propagations of the zone in which the single event occurred. Moreover, an index summarizing the seismic information was computed for each cell of the previous grid. All the events producing effects and their provenance are stored on files, allowing the main seismogenic zones influencing this cell to be identified. This methodology has been applied to central and southern Italy in an area between the latitudes 40.6 and 43.3 N. In particular, attention is focussed on the sample areas of Rome (given the historical and political importance of the city) and of the Sannio-Matese and Irpinia zone (in which some of the strongest earthquakes of the Apennine chain have occurred). Finally, in order to evaluate the maximum expected magnitude, extreme value statistics (Gumbel III-type) are applied to the Colli Albani area, which represents the seismogenic zone nearest to Rome. For the Sannio-Matese and Irpinia area, considering the more dangerous zone as a ‘unicum’, theWeibull distribution has been hypothesized to determine the mean return time for events with an intensity greater than or equal to IX.     

Systematization of active faults for the assessment of the seismic hazard

A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory, and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction, etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source. Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic earthquake effects in a predetermined location.