赤道波动转换在西北太平洋热带气旋生成中的作用

This study associates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) with the equatorial wave transition from an interannual viewpoint, revealing that the tropical cyclogenesis mean location may be modulated by a longitudinal shift in the transition of Mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves to off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) disturbances from year to year. To a large extent, the wave transition is attributable to the monsoon trough in response to the thermal state of the warm pool (WP) over the WNP. During the cold state years in the WP, the basic flow confluence region associated with the monsoon trough penetrates eastward, leading to an eastward shift in the location of the wave transition. Such an environment, in which wave accumulation and energy conversion occur, is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis; as a result, the averaged cyclogenesis location moves eastward. The condition is reserved during the warm years in the WP, resulting in the prominent westward-retreating mean TC formation. Citation: Chen, G. H., and R. H. Huang, 2008: Role of equatorial wave transitions in tropical cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 64-68     

西北太平洋低频振荡对热带气旋生成的动力作用及其物理机制

利用全球再分析资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋(TC)数据, 从动力和能量转换方面深入分析了西北太平洋上空30～60天大气低频振荡(MJO)对西北太平洋区域TC生成的调制作用。研究结果表明, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的西风位相所控制时, MJO通过纬向风的辐合作用使得在辐合区传播的波动发生波数增加, 波长减短的结构改变, 从而触发较大尺度波动向天气尺度波动的演变; 西风位相期间纬向风的纬向辐合与经向切变可以使得低频波动动能向高频波动的转换得到加强, 从而使得在此区域TC生成的数量明显偏多。相反, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的东风位相时, TC生成的数量得到抑制。此外, 随着西风位相中西风的加强(东风位相中东风的加强), TC的生成概率将得到增加 (减少)。但是, 在西北太平洋东侧海域, MJO对TC活动的调制作用要减弱许多。对MJO活动年际变化的研究表明, 在西太暖池处于暖状态年时, 西北太平洋西侧的MJO活动频繁, 西风位相活跃, 从而有利于此区域TC的生成, 而冷年的情况正好相反。     

Impact of the Western Pacific Tropical Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Although it is well known that the tropical easterly jet(TEJ)has a significant impact on summer weather and climate over India and Africa,whether the TEJ exerts an important impact on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)remains unknown.In this study,we examined the impact of the TEJ on the interannual variability of TC genesis frequency over the WNP in the TC season(June-September)during 1980-2020.The results show a significant positive correlation between TC genesis frequency over the WNP and the jet intensity in the entrance region of the TEJ over the tropical western Pacific(in brief WP_TEJ),with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.66.The intensified WP_TEJ results in strong ageostrophic northerly winds in the entrance region and thus upper-level divergence to the north of the jet axis over the main TC genesis region in the WNP.This would lead to an increase in upward motion in the troposphere with enhanced low-level convergence,which are the most important factors to the increases in low-level vorticity,mid-level humidity and low-level eddy kinetic energy,and the decreases in sea level pressure and vertical wind shear in the region.All these changes are favorable for TC genesis over the WNP and vice versa.Further analyses indicate that the interannual variability of the WP_TEJ intensity is likely to be linked to the local diabatic heating over the Indian Ocean-western Pacific and the central Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.     

1949—2009年西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征

利用1949—2009年中国气象局热带气旋（TC:Tropical Cyclone）最佳路径数据集,对西北太平洋TC生成源地的时空分布、生成和登陆我国TC的年、月频数分布、强度分布和地理分布等气候特征进行统计分析。研究结果表明：在这61年中生成的TC呈减少趋势,登陆我国的TC数量比较稳定,不过近10年来登陆的较强TC数量却呈现出上升趋势;每年6—10月是TC高发期,强度等级越高的TC生成季节越偏晚,而8月是生成和登陆数量最多的月份;TC平均生命期随强度等级的增加而增大,且逐渐表现出单峰值分布特征;TC频数的地理分布以我国南海和菲律宾以东洋面为中心,向四周呈辐射状减少,近10年来其活动范围有所西伸加强。     

西北太平洋大气准双周振荡对热带气旋活动的影响

利用JRA逐日风场资料、 NOAA/NCEP的逐日OLR场资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋 (TC) 数据, 通过对西北太平洋 (WNP) 上空10～20天大气准双周振荡 (QBWO) 不同位相的划分, 深入分析了QBWO对WNP区域生成TC的调制作用。研究结果表明: 在西北太平洋准双周尺度上, 对流与纬向风表现出沿热带地区向西偏北传播的特性。不同位相合成的季风槽位置和强度也发生相应的改变, 由此可见, QBWO是WNP上空季风槽季内变化的重要影响因子。当处于位相1、 4时, WNP生成TC的概率较低, 且登陆我国TC的数量也较少; 当处于位相2、 3时, WNP发生TC的概率较高, 特别是处于位相3时, 不仅TC发生概率最高, 而且登陆我国的TC数量也最多。沿热带地区西传的天气尺度波动 (周期10天以下) 在WNP通过季风槽的纬向风辐合作用, 易于转变为波数较大、 波长较短的热带低压 (TD) 型扰动, 这种扰动在季风槽区通过能量的转换有利于发展成为TC。     

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific(WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m(MWS_(10)) from an ensemble of15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS_(10) are similar in the WNP and South China Sea(SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS(1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP(2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations,and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit(2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.     

卑尔根气候模式中亚洲——太平洋涛动和影响西北太平洋热带气旋频数的环流背景的关系

利用挪威卑尔根的全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合模式的300年气候态数值积分结果,结合观测资料,分析了夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动(APO)的年际变化对与西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数相关联的大尺度环流背景的影响。模式结果表明,当夏季APO异常偏强(弱)时,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏东(西)偏北(南),南亚高压位置偏北(南),西北太平洋低层大气异常辐合(辐散),高层大气异常辐散(辐合),对流活动加强(减弱)。这种环流背景条件有(不)利于西北太平洋热带气旋的发生发展,西北太平洋热带气旋频数因而偏多(少)。     

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.     

2009年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的若干特点分析

2009年西北太平洋及南海海域共生成23个风暴以上等级的热带气旋(TC),比常年偏少,但登陆我国的频数(10个)多于常年,台风以上等级TC的活动强于常年.TC源地较常年偏西,并且季节性纬向迁移特征明显,而经向位移并无显著异常,在南海海域生成的TC比例(26.1%)远高于气候均值;路径以西行和西北行为主.登陆华南TC较多...     

Insight into the Role of Lower-Layer Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Intensification over the Western North Pacific

Vertical wind shear fundamentally influences changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclogenesis and evolution in the western North Pacific basin are not well understood. We present a new statistical study of all named TCs in this region during the period 2000-2006 using a second-generation partial least squares (PLS) regression technique. The results show that the lower-layer (between 850 hPa and 10 m above the sea surface) wind shear is more important than the commonly analyzed deep-layer shear (between 200 and 850 hPa) for changes in TC intensity during the TC intensification period. This relationship is particularly strong for westerly low-level shear. Downdrafts induced by the lower-layer shear bring low θ e air into the boundary layer from above, significantly reducing values of θ e in the TC inflow layer and weakening the TC. Large values of deep-layer shear over the ocean to the east of the Philippine Islands inhibit TC formation, while large values of lower-layer shear over the central and western North Pacific inhibit TC intensification. The critical value of deep-layer shear for TC formation is approximately 10 ms-1 , and the critical value of lower-layer shear for TC intensification is approximately ±1.5 ms-1 .     

Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific by the quasi-biweekly oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the western North Pacific(WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis(TCG) by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found.More TCG events occur during the QBWO's convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index(GPI), we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO's active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO's inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms.Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity.The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns—the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains(SSWs) over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO's active phase. This implies a possible enhanced(weakened) relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active(inactive) phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.     

西北太平洋热带气旋达到不同强度时所处位置的变化趋势研究

本文利用美国联合台风预警中心（JTWC)、中国气象局上海台风研究所（CMA）及日本气象厅东京台风中心（JMA）3 套热带气旋（TC）数据集,分别选取TC 达到生命史极值强度时、达到台风等级时以及达到热带风暴等级时所在的位置作为研究指标,分析了1980—2013 年5—11 月西北太平洋TC 达到不同强度时所在位置的长期变化趋势。研究得出如下结论：西北太平洋TC 在达到生命史极值强度时所处的位置表现为显著向北移动的趋势,3 个不同数据集向北移动趋势值分别为90、93、113 km/10a。同时TC 在达到台风和热带风暴级别时还存在相对明显的向北和向西移动趋势。本文进一步从环境场出发,分析了垂直风切变、海表温度以及潜在生成指数等影响因子的变化特征,为TC达不同强度时所处位置的长期变化趋势给出可能的物理解释。     

2004年与2006年7~9月西北太平洋上空大尺度环流场与天气尺度波动的差别及其对热带气旋生成的影响

2004年和2006年是西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)活动具有明显差别的两年,2004年TC的生成位置主要位于西北太平洋的中东部上空,而2006年的TC主要生成在西北太平洋西部与中国南海.本文利用JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)热带气旋最佳路径数据、NCEP-DOE AMIP-II再分析资料和NOAA的OLR资料分析并比较了2004年与2006年7~9月西北太平洋上空大尺度环境要素场及天气尺度波动对TC生成的作用.分析结果表明:2004年7~9月与2006年7~9月西北太平洋上空季风槽的平均位置没有明显的区别,但是形态有着显著的差异.2004年季风槽的槽线不明显,在西北太平洋中部呈现一显著的气旋式环流;而2006年季风槽的槽线非常明显,槽线南北两侧呈现平直的水平气流,具有明显的水平切变特征.2004年和2006年对流层低层的相对涡度、高层辐散和垂直风切变具有明显的纬向分布差异,这是这两年TC生成的位置具有明显差异的重要原因之 一.并且,本文还分析对比了2004年以及2006年7~9月西北太平洋上空3~8 d周期的天气尺度波动的活 动,其结果表明:2004年和2006年TC的生成大多数与天气尺度波列的活动有关.2004年的天气尺度波列强度比较强,其活动的位置位于西北太平洋中、东侧上空;而2006年西北太平洋上空的天气尺度波列相对较弱,主要活动于中国南海和西北太平洋西部.纬向基本气流的切变与辐合所引起的瞬变扰动动能倾向的水平分布差异是天气尺度波动活动具有以上差异的重要原因.因此,西北太平洋大尺度环境场与天气尺度波动活动的区别共同造成了2004年7~9月的TC生成位置偏东、而2006年7~9月TC的生成位置偏西.     

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific in 2008-2010

Diurnal variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the high-resolution Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH) products obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From January 2008 to October 2010, 72 TCs and 389 TC rainfall days were reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) best-track record. The TC rain rate was partitioned using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) and interpolated into Local Standard Time (LST). Harmonic analysis was applied to analyze the diurnal variation of the precipitation. Obvious diurnal cycles were seen in approximately 70% of the TC rainfall days. The harmonic amplitude and phase of the mean TC rainfall rate vary with TC intensity, life stage, season, and spatial distribution. On the basis of intensity, tropical depressions (TDs) exhibit the highest precipitation variation amplitude (PVA), at approximately 30%, while super typhoons (STs) contain the lowest PVA, at less than 22%. On the basis of lifetime stage, the PVA in the decaying stage (more than 37%) is stronger than that in the developing (less than 20%) and sustaining (28%) stages. On the basis of location, the PVA of more than 35% (less than 18%) is the highest (lowest) over the high-latitude oceanic areas (the eastern ocean of the Philippine Islands). In addition, a sub-diurnal cycle of TC rainfall occurs over the high-latitude oceans. On the basis of season, the diurnal variation is more pronounced during summer and winter, at approximately 30% and 32%, respectively, and is weaker in spring and autumn, at approximately 22% and 24%, respectively.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Tropical Cyclones at Different Intensity Scales over the Western North Pacific from 1945 to 2005

The tropical cyclone （TC） track data provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of the U.S. Navy over the western North Pacific （including the South China Sea） from 1945 to 2005 are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of TCs of different intensity scales. Most of the TCs occurred between 15° and 25°N, from the northern part of the South China Sea to the eastern part of the Bashi Channel until near 140°E. Most of the severe and super typhoons occurred over waters from the eastern part of the Bashi Channel to about 140°E. The TCs in a weakening or steady state take up a weak majority in the area west of 123°E and north of 20°N; those in an intensifying or steady state are mostly found in the area east of 123°E and south of 20°N. For severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons, their average decaying rates are all greater than the respective average growing rates; for tropical storms, however, the average decaying rate is smaller than the average growing rate. Generally speaking, the stronger the TC, the faster the intensification （weakening） is. The percentage of weak TCs is higher in June to August while that of strong TCs is higher in September to November. There are annual, interannual, and interdecadal variations in the observed number （every 6 h） and frequency of TCs at different intensity scales. As far as the long-term trend is concerned, the frequency and observed number of tropical storms have a significant linear increase, but the averaged intensity and number of TCs of other intensity categories do not exhibit such a significant linear trend. In E1 Nifio years, the number and percentage of super typhoons are significantly higher, while the total number of tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, and severe typhoons is significantly lower, and the mean intensity of TCs is prominently stronger; in La Nifia years, however, the opposite comes true.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数异常与五类主要大尺度环流型的关系

利用Yoshida and Ishikawa(2013)提出的一套客观分类方法对1979-2013年夏季(5-10月)共796个热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成前的大尺度环流背景场进行了分型,主要包括了季风切变线型(monsoon Shear Line,SL)、季风涡旋区(monsoon Gyre...     

A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa

A new seasonal prediction model for annual tropical storm numbers(ATSNs)over the western North Pacific was developed using the preceding January-February(JF)and April-May(AM)grid-point data at a resolution of 2.5°×2.5°.The JF and AM mean precipitation and the AM mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere,together with the JF mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Southern Hemisphere,were employed to compose the ATSN forecast model via the stepwise multiple linear regression technique.All JF and AM mean data were confined to the Eastern Hemisphere.We established two empirical prediction models for ATSN using the ERA40 reanalysis and NCEP reanalysis datasets,respectively,together with the observed precipitation.The performance of the models was verified by cross-validation.Anomaly correlation coefficients(ACC)at 0.78 and 0.74 were obtained via comparison of the retrospective predictions of the two models and the observed ATSNs from 1979 to 2002.The multi-year mean absolute prediction errors were 3.0 and 3.2 for the two models respectively,or roughly 10% of the average ATSN.In practice,the final prediction was made by averaging the ATSN predictions of the two models.This resulted in a higher score,with ACC being further increased to 0.88,and the mean absolute error reduced to 1.92,or 6.13% of the average ATSN.     

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.     

Impact of the Subtropical High on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Recent publications have investigated the interactions between the extratropical transitions （ETs） of tropical cyclones （TCs） and midlatitude circulations; however, studies of ET events have rarely considered the relationship between the storm and the nearby subtropical high. The TC best-track data provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorology Agency are used in conjunction with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to discuss the potential effects of the subtropical high on ETs over the western North Pacific basin. When the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is weakened and withdrawn toward the east, more TCs follow recurving paths and the midlatitude trough activity is intensified. These changes lead to enhanced ET activity. By contrast, when the WPSH strengthens and extends westward, the number of TCs that follow direct westward paths increases and the midlatitude trough is relatively inactive. These conditions lead to reduced occurrences of ET cases. Abnormal activity of the WPSH should be considered as an important factor in determining ET activity.     

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by LASG/IAP AGCM

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI) is a useful metric for gauging the performance of global climate models in the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) genesis.The performance of LASG/IAP AGCM GAMIL2.0 in the simulation of GPI over the western North Pacific(WNP) is assessed in this paper.Since GPI depends on large scale environmental factors including low-level vorticity at 850 hPa,relative humidity at 700 hPa,vertical wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa,maximum potential intensity(MPI),and vertical velocity,the bias of GPI simulation is discussed from the perspective of thermal and dynamical factors.The results are compared with the ECMWF reanalysis data(ERA40).The analyses show that both the climatological spatial pattern and seasonal cycle of GPI over the WNP are reasonably simulated by GAMIL2.0,but due to the overestimation of relative humidity,the simulated GPI extends to 170°E,about 10°east to that in the reanalysis data.It is demonstrated that the bias in the simulation of monsoon trough,which is about 5°north to the reanalysis,leads to an overestimation of GPI during May-June and September-October,but an underestimation during July-August.Over the WNP,the response of GPI to ENSO is well captured by GAMIL2.0,including the eastward(westward) shift of TC genesis location during El Nin o(La Nin a) years.However,the anomalous convective center associated with El Nin o shifts westward about 20°in comparison to ERA40,which leads to the biases in both vertical velocity and relative humidity.These eventually result in the westward deflection of the boundary between the positive and negative GPI centers along 20°-30°N.The results from this study provide useful clues for the future improvement of GAMIL2.0.