中国旱灾农业承灾体脆弱性诊断与评价

旱灾是世界上影响面最广、造成农业损失最大的自然灾害类型，世界近一半的国家干旱严重。中国旱灾频繁，每年旱灾损失占各种自然灾害损失的15%以上，随着人口和农业的快速发展，农业承灾体脆弱性对灾情的放大也在增加。基于灾害系统理论，从致灾因子和耕地承灾体的区域组合角度，在旱灾频发高值区，选择雨养农业、灌溉农业和水田农业为主要承灾体类型，构建了农业旱灾脆弱性生产压力和生活压力，灾前—灾中易损性和灾中—灾后适应性等农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断指标体系。提出脆弱性评价的区域模型，即：雨养农业的易损—适应模型（兴和）、灌溉农业的生产—生活压力模型（邢台）和水田农业的需水—灌水模型（鼎城）。基于农业承灾体脆弱性评价，提出制定适应降水变化的波动土地利用结构调整区域政策、建立农业生态—生产范式、建立“水银行”管理机制、建立用水效益和开源节流的评估体系以及加强“截水—抽水—控水”为一体的灌溉系统工程建设，提高灌溉应急能力等对策，以期为农业旱灾的防御和区域粮食安全决策提供科学依据。     

The Determinants of Disaster Vulnerability: Achieving Sustainable Mitigation through Population Health

The growing appreciation of mitigation is highlighting theneed to develop a better understanding of what makes some people more vulnerable tothe impacts of a disaster. Health researchers have asked a similar question regarding thevarying vulnerability to illness within a population. This has lead to the identification of a setof social, physical and economic factors that are now referred to as the determinants of health.These factors are the same as those commonly associated with disaster vulnerability. Recognizingthat these same concepts are being applied in both the health and disaster management contextspresents an opportunity to also achieve a shared objective of reducing vulnerability withina population.     

我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与评估方法

基于脆弱性研究文献,从脆弱性概念、评估内容、评估方法等方面系统总结了脆弱性评估研究的特点和趋势,开展脆弱性评估时应注意的系统、关注特征、灾害、尺度与时间等五个方面,剖析了区域尺度脆弱性评估涉及的一系列问题,介绍了脆弱性评估方法及其优缺点和适用性.探讨了我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,分析了二者之间的关系,论述了我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性评估内容、评估尺度和评估方法.     

Materials that linger: An embodied geography of polyester clothes

Narratives of clothing reuse and repurpose have centred on second-hand economies, recycling, upcycling and DIY, fashioning a particular kind of ‘wasted’ aesthetic where stitching, darning and patching become visible. But what of clothes that don’t show signs of wear, because they are made from human-made fabrics that degrade much more slowly than organic materials? Drawing on ethnographic ‘fashion journeys’ with young adults from Sydney, Australia, this paper follows polyester clothes, geographically and temporally, beyond spaces of production, to their everyday use, storage, divestment, reuse and recirculation. Clothing is theorised as always in-process – materially, temporally and spatially – and understood haptically through relations between agentic component materials and human touch. Reconfiguring concepts of fashion waste questions how clothes become redundant: their material memories instead lingering in wardrobes, in stockpiles of divested objects and hand-me-downs, entering cycles of second-hand trade and ultimately, landfill. Polyester manifests a particular variant of material culture: both mundane and malignant, its feel and slow decay result in clothing that seldom slips from the category of surplus to excess in clear ways. An embodied approach, focused on materials and haptic properties of touch and ‘feel’, reveals the contours of an otherwise opaque everyday geography of clothing waste.     

Vulnerability of existing buildings: empirical evaluation and experimental measurements

The aim of this study is the comparison between the fundamental periods identified experimentally and those calculated using the formulas given in the Algerian Seismic Code (RPA 99) for vulnerability assessment and for experimental data collection of selected sample of old buildings. The results obtained for vulnerability assessment will then be extrapolated to buildings of the same typology built during the 1949 to 1954 period in the northern part of Algeria. From 1949 to 1954, the reinforced concrete constructions in Algeria were built before the first generation of the Algerian Seismic Code. These buildings being old are certainly weakened by the occupancy activities and seismic event loads. Hence, the evaluation of their vulnerability with respect to the regional seismic hazard requires the knowledge of their structure on a site capacity. The empirical formulas to calculate the fundamental period of a building are based on the Algerian Earthquake Code (RPA 99) .These formulas consider only the geometrical dimension (length, width and height) and the structural design of the buildings. The fundamental periods of vibration of twenty-two buildings, located in Algiers, calculated using the empirical formulas given in the RPA 99 are lower than those identified experimentally. A question then rises, do these tested buildings present any damage or not? As five of these buildings were tested before the 21 May 2003 earthquake, the experimental testing highlighted a decrease in the fundamental frequency which means that these buildings are damaged. Hence, for vulnerability assessment, the empirical formulas given in the Algerian Seismic Code (RPA 99) may not be appropriate for vulnerability assessment of the old buildings built during the 1949 to 1954 period.     

班公湖-怒江洋形成演化新视角:兼论西藏中部古-新特提斯转换

班公湖-怒江洋的形成演化是认识班公湖-怒江成矿带成矿地质背景的关键,近几年中国地质调查局在青藏高原部署了大量1∶50000区域地质调查工作,取得了很多重要发现。对班公湖-怒江结合带两侧关键性海陆沉积地层对比研究,认为南羌塘地块与拉萨地块晚古生代-晚三叠世地层沉积特征及岩石组合基本一致,二者在班公湖-怒江中生代洋盆形成以前是一个整体,为冈瓦纳大陆北缘被动陆缘环境。班公湖-怒江洋在早中侏罗世裂解形成,至中侏罗世趋于稳定且范围最大;向北俯冲消减作用始于中晚侏罗世,晚侏罗世-早白垩世演化为残留海,早白垩世中晚期出现短暂的裂解,致使海水重新灌入;晚白垩世班公湖-怒江洋盆进入闭合后的隆升造山阶段,发生了残留盆地迁移,形成了磨拉石建造。班公湖-怒江洋类似古加勒比海(现今墨西哥湾地区)的形成机制,并与大西洋、太平洋的形成过程关系密切。对于班公湖-怒江洋的闭合和冈底斯弧的形成,本文提出了另一种可能解释,即,新特提斯洋向北俯冲下,岩浆弧逐步南迁,在弧后形成了一系列伸展性质的弧后盆地,两者组成微陆块由北向南逐渐增生形成了现今的拉萨地体,持续向北俯冲也导致了班公湖-怒江洋最终闭合。     

Effects of near-surface inhomogeneities on MT responses: An analytical model

An analytical model is suggested to describe the electrostatic field produced by near-surface inhomogeneities responsible for galvanic shift in magnetotelluric (MT) apparent resistivity sounding curves. The near-surface inhomogeneities are modeled in thin-sheet approximation with laterally variable longitudinal conductance and transverse resistance. The model accounts for the TM (transverse magnetic) mode secondary electric field in the conductive layered subsurface below the thin sheet. Equations have been obtained to relate the subsurface geoelectric parameters and the spatial harmonics of the secondary electrostatic field. This secondary field, which is the source of galvanic shift in MT data, turns out to be in-phase with the primary field. The equations derived to simulate galvanic distortions are applicable to long-period MT data acquired by a synchronous array.     

考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合方法

多源降水融合是精准估计降水时空分布的重要途径,多聚焦降水量或降水强度的误差订正,对短历时降水雨区辨识的重视不足。提出考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合框架,耦合地理加权逻辑回归与地理加权回归模型,构建兼顾雨区辨识及雨量估计的降水融合方法,并应用于汉江流域MSWEP V2.1与地面站网观测日降水融合。结果表明：所提方法成功再现有雨无雨空间格局并刻画了降水中心,整体强化了MSWEP V2.1对地面降水的表征能力,降低误报率和误报降水量的幅度超过了60%,提高临界成功指数和Kling-Gupta效率系数达40%以上;较降水空间插值数据,削减误报降水量并提升Kling-Gupta效率系数高于10%;另外,较参考数据,降水融合改善强降水事件(雨强≥50 mm/d)分辨精度的增益不低于60%。所提方法有效改善了降水估计效果,为多源降水融合提供了新思路。     

An innovative application of the Kinect in Earth sciences: quantifying deformation in analogue modelling of volcanoes

Measuring surface deformation is critical in analogue modelling of Earth science phenomena. Here, we present a novel application of the Microsoft Kinect sensor to measure vertical deformation in a scaled analogue model of Nisyros volcano (Greece), simulating two magmatic sources and related surface deformation. The Kinect permits capture of real time, 640 × 480 pixel, true‐colour images (RGB) and a grid of distances to the modelled surface with a horizontal and vertical resolution of ±1 mm. Using recorded distances permits quantification of vertical deformation in terms of maximum and average down‐ and uplift during deflation and inflation phases respectively, which is of crucial importance for defining the kinematics of faults formed during the modelling, determined from interpretation of the RGB images. Although other techniques have demonstrated similar or higher accuracy, our study demonstrates the cost‐effectiveness of the Kinect in analogue modelling of volcanoes.     

An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Turkey in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 1980s and the trend continued in the late 1990s. The countrys agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Turkey have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used to detail geographical variations in the drought vulnerability based on frequency and severity of drought events at multiple time steps. Critical (threshold) rainfall values were derived for each station at multiple-time steps in varying drought categories to determine least amount of rainfall required to avoid from drought initiation. The study found that drought vulnerability portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. At regional scale, south-eastern and eastern Anatolia are characterized with moderate droughts at shorter time steps, while the occurrence of severe droughts at shorter time steps is observed at non-coastal parts of the country. A similar picture was observed with very severe droughts. The critical (threshold) values exhibited rising numbers during the growing season at 3-month step in the South-eastern Anatolia, which might have significant consequences considering presence of large irrigation projects under-development in the region. In general, rainfall amounts required for non-drought conditions decrease from the coastal parts toward the interiors with increasing time steps.     

巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁

自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。     

基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险评价 ——以北川县开坪乡为例

地质灾害防治的一条有效途径就是进行地质灾害区划与风险研究,进一步圈定地质灾害高风险区域,可节约防治成本并达到风险评价的效果。北川县开坪乡地质地貌复杂,发育各类地质灾害,本文在地质灾害详细调查的基础上,拟对区内地质灾害进行风险性评价,以单个滑坡的体积、面积、高差、河流距离、岩性、变形迹象等因子作为分析单元,实现大比例尺范围内滑坡危险性区划;制作出区域内的地质灾害危险性图件与易发性图件;根据遥感影像解译,原有资料查询以及实际考察,制作开坪乡研究区域斜坡类型分布图;结合单个滑坡危险性及易损性,区域危险性及易损性,综合制作开坪乡区域风险性图件,完成对研究区进行有效地地质灾害风险区划。     

The role of coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution: rethinking the snow event in early 2008, China

New forms of hazards generated by extreme weather pose new challenges to emergency management. The purpose of this paper is to identify a typical evolution dynamics by analyzing coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution via critical infrastructure system under extreme weather. Evidence from the snow event in early 2008, China, is used to draw the viewpoint and support the argument. The paper identifies the dynamics that how a natural hazard of extreme weather evolves into a social crisis and how coupling and embeddedness contribute to the evolution. This paper makes it evident that the impact of natural hazard to a society can obtain amplification through coupling and embeddedness. Therefore, new challenges in risk evolution should become a highlighted direction for further research. This paper sheds light on a new profile for social impact research of natural hazard and provides new insights into systems thinking on emergency management.     

Precambrian paleontology and acrochrons of the biosphere evolution: On the theory of the expanding biosphere

What is pre-life? We have no idea, since it is hidden in chemical molecules that conceal its future genetic potential. From the biological standpoint, a prokaryotic cyanobacteria cell represents a culmination of biochemical evolution. Its appearance on the Earth marked the starting point of the formation of the first biogeocoenosis on the planet, i.e., the onset of its biosphere. After having started, approximately 4.0–3.7 Ga ago, biosphere evolution has continued uninterrupted on the Earth. Its whole course is reflected in the geochronological record of the stratisphere, the stratified shell of the Earth. In the stratigraphic sense, this record comprises the Archean, Proterozoic (i.e., Karelian and Riphean), and Phanerozoic (i.e., Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic). They correspond to acrochrons, i.e., the main stages in biosphere evolution. According to the Precambrian paleontology, the first three acrochrons represent a pre-Vendian stage in the evolution of unicellular prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms that terminated in the Riphean with the appearance of their colonial communities. The true metacellular structure of tissue Metaphyta and Metazoa started forming only in the Late Neoproterozoic (Late Riphean). The Vendian Period was marked by a radiation of macrotaxonomic diversity with the appearance of the main multicellular types of the Phanerozoic organization level. Therefore, the last acrochron (lasting from approximately 650 Ma ago) should be considered as corresponding to the Vendian-Phanerozoic period. The Cambrian explosion corresponds to the mass expansion of skeletal Metazoa.     

Hot-topics and Prospects of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction: Based on 2017 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Cancun,Mexico

A brief introduction to the Fifth Session of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which was held in Cancun, Mexico, organized by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) and hosted by the Government of Mexico from 22 May to 26 May 2017, was firstly provided. Combined with “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, and related work on natural disaster risk reduction at global, regional, country and local scales, some hot-topics and prospects of global platform for disaster risk reduction were put forward. Some findings were concluded, consisting of understanding disaster risk, disaster risk governance, building and enhancing resilience to disasters, coherence between the Sendai Framework, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). Implementing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through cross-sectoral collaboration, removing barriers and promoting public-private cooperation in DRR and other types of partnership among multi-stakeholders will become the main force pattern of DRR in the near future. Large-scale disaster risk governance caused by multi-hazards (disaster cluster), disaster chain and disaster compound will be the main trend in scientific research of DRR. Building regional disaster risk reduction platform (e.g. the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21^st-Century Maritime Silk Road) and sharing the technologies and information of disaster risk reduction will be the main contents of DRR practices. Building and optimization of institutional mechanisms on DRR will be the trend of DRR idea. Improving and enhancing the support to communities, vulnerable groups and locals on DRR will be the main trend in DRR achievements’ application and demonstration in China.