台湾南投、台中地震速报技术研究

本文通过分析南投、台中地震的波形记录及各定位参数 ,总结出该地区的震相特征和各台的震级情况 ,结合地震速报的规程 ,提出了对这两个地区地震速报的建议。     

利用InSAR技术研究黄土地区滑坡分布

InSAR技术能够获取大面积、连续、高精度的地表垂直形变信息,可用来监测地震、火山、滑坡等自然灾害造成的地表形变。文章介绍了InSAR技术在监测陕北黄土地区滑坡中的应用,首先进行野外地质勘察和TM光学遥感影像解译,接着通过EnviSat SAR数据差分干涉处理,获取研究区干涉形变场,提取出滑坡位移量,最后详细分析黄草湾至董家寺沿线一带的滑坡变形范围,并划定出了4个有一定变形的重点监视区。     

Development of an empirical model for rainfall-induced hillside vulnerability assessment: a case study on Chen-Yu-Lan watershed,Nantou, Taiwan

In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R ₀, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed.     

Evolution of landslide hotspots in Taiwan

Among the disasters facing Taiwan, earthquakes and typhoons incur the greatest monetary losses, and landslide disasters inflict the greatest damage in mountainous areas. The nationwide landslide susceptibility map gives an indication of where landslides are likely to occur in the future; however, there is no objective index indicating the location of landslide hotspots. In this study, we used statistical analysis to locate landslide hotspots in catchments in Taiwan. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of landslide clusters between 2003 and 2012 and identified a concentration of landslide hotspots in the eastern part of Central Taiwan. The extreme rainfall brought by typhoon Morakot also led to the formation of new landslide hotspots in Southern Taiwan. This study provides a valuable reference explaining changes in landslide hotspots and identifying areas of high hotspot concentration to facilitate the formulation of strategies to deal with landslide risk.     

A seismic landslide hazard analysis with topographic effect,a case study in the 99 Peaks region,Central Taiwan

It has been known that ground motion amplitude will be amplified at mountaintops; however, such topographic effects are not included in conventional landslide hazard models. In this study, a modified procedure that considers the topographic effects is proposed to analyze the seismic landslide hazard. The topographic effect is estimated by back analysis. First, a 3D dynamic numerical model with irregular topography is constructed. The theoretical topographic amplification factors are derived from the dynamic numerical model. The ground motion record is regarded as the reference motion in the plane area. By combining the topographic amplification factors with the reference motions, the amplified acceleration time history and amplified seismic intensity parameters are obtained. Newmark’s displacement model is chosen to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. By combining the regression equation and the seismic parameter of peak ground acceleration and Arias intensity, the Newmark’s displacement distribution is generated. Subsequently, the calculated Newmark’s displacement maps are transformed to the hazard maps. The landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Central Taiwan are evaluated. The actual landslide inventory maps triggered by the 21 September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the calculated hazard maps. Relative to the conventional procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures, which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result for seismic landslide hazard analysis. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The first record of Eocene tuff in a Paleogene rift basin near Nantou,Western Foothills,central Taiwan

Microfossils and a U–Pb age dating on zircon grains in the tuff beds exposed in the axial part of the Tsukeng anticline along the Pinglin River in the Western Foothills near Nantou, central Taiwan, show an occurrence of the Eocene volcanics unconformably beneath the uppermost part of the Latest Oligocene Wuchihshan Formation. This is the first discovery of the Eocene tuff exposed in the Western Foothills.The proposed Miocene “Tsukeng Formation” and “Takeng Formation” of Ho et al. (1956) named for sequences exposed in the Nantou area, Western Foothills, have to be abandoned and the standard Oligocene–Miocene lithostratigraphy used commonly in the Western Foothills of northern Taiwan is properly applicable in central Taiwan. The thick pink–brown–green colored volcanics unconformably beneath the uppermost Wuchihshan Formation is named for the first time as the Pinglin Tuff which contains Late Middle Eocene calcareous nannofossils (Zone NP16) consistent with a U–Pb age dating (38.8 ± 1 Ma) on zircon grains in the tuff. The Pinglin Tuff is overlying the Middle Eocene Chungliao Formation which contains indigenous larger foraminifera Discocyclina dispansa ex. interc. sella-dispansa and calcareous nannofossils of Zones NP14–15. The Middle Eocene Pinglin Tuff and Chungliao Formation represent the Paleogene syn-rift sequence unconformably overlain by the Latest Oligocene–Miocene post-rift sequence. This is the first document with conclusive paleontological data and age dating showing an occurrence of Paleogene marine rift basin exposed in the Western Foothills. This study also confirms similar Tertiary basin architecture between the Taiwan Strait–Pearl River Mouth Basin in the NE South China Sea and the Western Foothills onland central Taiwan.     

地震滑坡危险性评价及编图——以映秀震中区为例

虽然宣称地球已进入地震多发期目前学术界还存在不少争议,但不得不承认近期的破坏性强震发生的频率较以往高.强震诱发的滑坡灾害也越来越成为了地质学家们研究的热点.在对一个地区发出中长期地震预报之后,如果也能相应地对该地区的斜坡稳定性进行评价,从而预测地震时滑坡最可能发生的地段,这对于减轻震区人民的伤亡和财产损失将具有重要的意义.本文对目前常用的地震滑坡危险性评价方法进行了简要介绍,并以“5.12”汶川地震映秀震中区为例,运用Newmark方法对该区进行了地震滑坡危险性评价和编图示范,探讨了目前常用地震滑坡危险性评价方法的优缺点及今后区域性地震滑坡危险性评价的发展方向.     

胶东典型花岗岩热储地下热水水化学特征及热储研究

招远地热田位于胶东隆起区,元古代蚀变花岗岩分布广泛,地下热水微量元素丰富。为查明地下热水微量组分的赋存条件、花岗岩热储环境与地热资源量,利用地下热水水化学分析、热储分析及有效能源换算法,建立Gibbs模型,进行PHREEQC模拟并开展热储估算。研究结果显示：（1）地下热水水化学类型为Cl—Na型,与海水水化学类型一致,地下热水溶解性固体总量（TDS）介于1359.7~5302.0 mg/L,锶、溴、偏硅酸等微量组分的质量浓度分别达26.20,7.50,88.00 mg/L,均超过国家医疗热矿水水质标准;（2）地热田东北方向的玲珑花岗岩中锶的质量分数较高,介于334~1 805 mg/kg,是地下热水中锶的一个重要来源;（3）热储温度在107~215 °C之间,硅-焓图解法分析冷水混入比例为33.6%~58.9%。结果显示：40~60 °C的总可用能源19.73 TJ/a,总热能达5479.57 MW·h,吨油当量471.16 toe;>60 °C的总可用能源301.57 TJ/a,总热能达83771.53 MW·h,吨油当量为7203.06 toe。综合分析认为研究区地热资源丰富,地下热水微量组分来源于花岗岩热储层的溶滤作用,富集过程受热储环境的影响,研究结果有助于完善地下热水水-岩相互作用理论。     

济南趵突泉泉域岩溶水化学特征时空差异性研究

水文地球化学一直是水文地质领域的研究重点,而地下水化学组分的时空变化特征受多种因素的影响。为了掌握济南趵突泉泉域岩溶地下水水化学特征时空差异性,本文分别于枯、丰水期在泉域内采集并分析了岩溶地下水样品,并采用数理统计、Piper三线图、Gibbs图解法及离子比例系数法等分析手段,对研究区岩溶地下水水化学特征及时空差异性进行了研究。结果显示,研究区地下水优势阳离子为Ca,优势阴离子为HCO3,丰水期除HCO3外,其他离子的变异系数较枯水期普遍升高,且大于05,表现出丰水期空间差异性增大的特点。地下水水化学类型具有以HCO3·SO4- Ca为主,多种类型并存的特点。Ca、Mg、HCO3含量在枯、丰水期比值要小于1,且比其他离子要相对稳定,呈现出全局性特点。而Na、K含量在枯、丰水期比值波动较大,大部分比值大于1,Cl、SO4、NO3含量在枯、丰水期比值具有波动剧烈的特点,呈现出区域性特征,同时表明人类活动大大改变了研究区地下水水化学场的分布特征。     

Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan

By coupling limit equilibrium analysis and Monte Carlo analysis with a geography information system (GIS), this study implements a method that can evaluate the risk (corresponding to probability of failure in this study) of landslide with consideration of spatial uncertainties. The GIS can adopt the three-dimensional information including surface topography, underground geomaterial distribution and groundwater level to determine slope profiles for analysis. Then the safety of defined slope can be evaluated by limit equilibrium analysis. In this study, the mechanical properties of geomaterial were considered as random variables instead of single values. The slope and groundwater profiles are also randomly adopted. Through a Monte Carlo sampling process, a distribution of safety factor and probability of failure can be determined. This probabilistic risk analysis approach was applied to Li-shan landslide in Central Taiwan.

Due to heavy rains, the sites near the highway 7A (mileage 73 k + 150) and the highway 8 (mileage 82 k) in the Li-shan Township began to subside in mid April 1990. Topography, geology, and groundwater condition of this area were first reviewed. Based on this review, together with field investigations and a series of limit equilibrium back analyses, a general hypothetic model was established to illustrate the failure mechanism of this landslide area. Then the developed probabilistic risk analysis model is applied to spatially evaluate the risk of this landslide area as well as the performance of the remediation treatment.     

Quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping at Pemalang area,Indonesia

For quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified a frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models to Pemalang area, Indonesia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite imagery, and field surveys; a spatial database was constructed from topographic and geological maps. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect, curvature of topography, and distance from stream, were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology was extracted and calculated from geologic database. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Then the landslide susceptibility maps were verified and compared with known landslide locations. The logistic regression model (accuracy 87.36%) had higher prediction accuracy than the frequency ratio (85.60%) and artificial neural network (81.70%) models. The models can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land-use planning.     

地下水渗流场对库区滑坡稳定性影响的数值模拟——以白马库区羊角滩滑坡为例

针对库水位变化条件下滑坡的稳定性定量评价复杂问题,考虑降雨和库水位变化对地下水渗流场变化规律的影响机制,采用饱和-非饱和渗流的基本理论,运用渗流模拟有限元法,对重庆市武隆区羊角滩滑坡在6种不同工况下的库区滑坡的稳定性开展了模拟研究。结果表明: ①降雨工况下,降雨对地下水渗流场都有影响,滑坡中部位置受地下水位影响最大,前后部影响小,降雨条件下,滑坡稳定性随着降雨历时的增加而变小,到达一定阶段后,滑坡已经滑动,滑坡稳定性系数不再变化; ②库水位工况下,主要影响滑坡前缘,地下水位是随库水位变化而迅速变化的,随着库水位的上涨,滑坡稳定性系数呈现先减小后增大的趋势; ③地下水位的骤升对浮托作用影响有限,对压坡作用影响较大,同时降低了渗流力的影响,对滑坡稳定起到了积极作用,地下水位的骤降增大了渗流力,减弱了前缘库水位的压坡作用,滑坡失稳的可能性最大。可为库区该类滑坡的稳定性现状及发展趋势预判提供科学依据。     

Ensemble-based landslide susceptibility maps in Jinbu area, Korea

Ensemble techniques were developed, applied and validated for the analysis of landslide susceptibility in Jinbu area, Korea using the geographic information system (GIS). Landslide-occurrence areas were detected in the study by interpreting aerial photographs and field survey data. Landslide locations were randomly selected in a 70/30 ratio for training and validation of the models, respectively. Topography, geology, soil and forest databases were also constructed. Maps relevant to landslide occurrence were assembled in a spatial database. Using the constructed spatial database, 17 landslide-related factors were extracted. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio, weight of evidence, logistic regression and artificial neural network models and their ensemble models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create landslide susceptibility indexes and maps. Then, the four landslide susceptibility maps were used as new input factors and integrated using the frequency ratio, weight of evidence, logistic regression and artificial neural network models as ensemble methods to make better susceptibility maps. All of the susceptibility maps were validated by comparison with known landslide locations that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble-based landslide susceptibility map that used the new landslide-related input factor maps showed better accuracy (87.11% in frequency ratio, 83.14% in weight of evidence, 87.79% in logistic regression and 84.54% in artificial neural network) than the individual landslide susceptibility maps (84.94% in frequency ratio, 82.82% in weight of evidence, 87.72% in logistic regression and 81.44% in artificial neural network). All accuracy assessments showed overall satisfactory agreement of more than 80%. The ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.     

三峡树坪滑坡动力学的有限元模拟

三峡工程是迄今为止最大的水利工程,对库区滑坡灾害的监测和机制研究一直是重要的研究课题。本文利用Terra SAR-X的强度图进行相关计算,求解出2009年5月20日至8月5日期间三峡树坪滑坡的形变场。该形变场特征和树坪滑坡体的地形特征吻合甚好,位移大小、方向和三峡大学对滑坡体的野外观测结果基本吻合。以此高精度位移场为外部约束,结合野外观测资料对滑坡体介质力学性质进行分类并选取边界条件,利用有限元方法对滑坡活动进行动力学计算模拟。计算过程中对滑坡体的滑动面形状、因降雨引起材料参数变化和三峡水库水位等因素分别反演和调整,得出符合其变形和发展过程的滑坡动力学特征。发现软弱带的物性参数决定滑坡体总体滑动量,滑坡体的物性参数决定位移分布的峰值位置。在确定了滑坡动力学特征之后,进一步讨论降雨和库区水位下降对滑坡产生的贡献权重,得出降雨是树坪滑坡的决定因素。     

陕西宝鸡地区胡家山滑坡风险性评价

在综合分析国内外滑坡风险评价方法的基础上,通过对野外地质灾害的调查、对胡家山滑坡的勘查和岩土物理力学参数的测试分析,利用Geo-slope软件和经验方法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行稳定性分析、影响范围预测和失稳概率分析,开展了对滑坡在天然状态、10年一遇降雨和50年一遇降雨3种工况条件下的危险性、承灾体易损性分析等,完成了胡家山滑坡风险性评价,探讨了单体滑坡风险评价的技术方法与流程。根据评价结果,胡家山滑坡财产最大风险为113.71万元/年,人口最大风险为0.0648人/年,其人口风险超过了社会可容许的风险标准。因此,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。     

Comparative evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Minamata area, Japan

Landslides are unpredictable; however, the susceptibility of landslide occurrence can be assessed using qualitative and quantitative methods based on the technology of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A map of landslide inventory was obtained from the previous work in the Minamata area, the interpretation from aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2002. A total of 160 landslides was identified in four periods. Following the construction of geospatial databases, including lithology, topography, soil deposits, land use, etc., the study documents the relationship between landslide hazard and the factors that affect the occurrence of landslides. Different methods, namely the logistic regression analysis and the information value model, were then adopted to produce susceptibility maps of landslide occurrence. After the application of each method, two resultant maps categorize the four classes of susceptibility as high, medium, low and very low. Both of them generated acceptable results as both classify the majority of the cells with landslide occurrence in high or medium susceptibility classes, which could be believed to be a success. By combining the hazard maps generated from both methods, the susceptibility was classified as high–medium and low–very low levels, in which the classification of high susceptibility level covers 6.5% of the area, while the areas predicted to be unstable, which are 50.5% of the total area, are classified as the low susceptibility level. However, comparing the results from both the approaches, 43% of the areas were misclassified, either from high–medium to low–very low or low–very low to high–medium classes. Due to the misclassification, 8% and 3.28% of all the areas, which should be stable or free of landsliding, were evaluated as high–medium susceptibility using the logistic regression analysis and the information value model, respectively. Moreover, in the case of the class rank change from high–medium susceptibility to low–very low, 35% and 39.72% of all mapping areas were predicted as stable using both the approaches, respectively, but in these areas landslides were likely to occur or were actually recognized.     

陕西宝鸡地区胡家山滑坡风险性评价

在综合分析国内外滑坡风险评价方法的基础上,通过对野外地质灾害的调查、对胡家山滑坡的勘查和岩土物理力学参数的测试分析,利用Geo-slope软件和经验方法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行稳定性分析、影响范围预测和失稳概率分析,开展了对滑坡在天然状态、10年一遇降雨和50年一遇降雨3种工况条件下的危险性、承灾体易损性分析等,完成了胡家山滑坡风险性评价,探讨了单体滑坡风险评价的技术方法与流程。根据评价结果,胡家山滑坡财产最大风险为113.71万元/年,人口最大风险为0.0648人/年,其人口风险超过了社会可容许的风险标准。因此,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。