Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.     

Multi-decadal trends in the tropical Pacific western boundary currents retrieved from historical hydrological observations

As large-scale ocean circulation is a key regulator in the redistribution of oceanic energy, evaluating the multi-decadal trends in the western Pacific Ocean circulation under global warming is essential for not only understanding the basic physical processes but also predicting future climate change in the western Pacific. Employing the hydrological observations of World Ocean Atlas 2018(WOA18) from 1955 to 2017, this study calculated the geostrophic currents, volume transport and multidecadal trends for the North Equatorial Current(NEC), the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC), the Mindanao Current(MC), the Kuroshio Current(KC) in the origin and the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent(NGCUC) within tropical western Pacific Ocean over multi-decades. Furthermore, this study examined the contributions of temperature and salinity variations. The results showed significant strengthening trends in NEC, MC and NGCUC over the past six decades, which is mainly contributed by temperature variations and consistent with the tendency in the dynamic height pattern. Zonal wind stress averaged over the western Pacific Ocean in the same latitude of each current represents the decadal variation and multi-decadal trends in corresponding ocean currents, indicating that the trade wind forcing plays an important role in the decadal trend in the tropical western Pacific circulation. Uncertainties in the observed hydrological data and trends in the currents over the tropical western Pacific are also discussed. Given that the WOA18 dataset covers most of the historical hydrological sampling data for the tropical western Pacific, this paper provides important observational information on the multi-decadal trend of the large-scale ocean circulation in the western Pacific.     

Cosmic ray geomagnetic cutoff rigidities in the magnetic field of two empirical models during a strong disturbance in November 2003: A comparison of models

Cosmic ray (CR) fluxes, which penetrate into the Earth??s magnetosphere and atmosphere from the interplanetary space, are an important factor of space weather. The geomagnetic field allows or forbids CR particles to enter into a given point in the magnetosphere depending on their energy. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity regulates the distribution of CR fluxes in the magnetosphere. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (geomagnetic threshold) determination accuracy is closely related to the accuracy of the magnetospheric model used in calculations. Using a method for tracing of charged CR particle trajectories in the magnetic field of a model magnetosphere, we obtained geomagnetic thresholds for two magnetosphere empirical models (Ts01 and Ts04), constructed based on the same initial database. The Ts01 model describes the middle magnetosphere for certain conditions in the solar wind and interplanetary field. The Ts04 model pays the main attention to describing the large-scale evolution of magnetospheric currents during a storm. The theoretically obtained geomagnetic thresholds have been compared with experimental thresholds, calculated using the spectrographic global survey method based on data from the global network of CR stations. The study has been performed for the period of a strong geomagnetic storm that occurred in November 2003.     

Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands

Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.     

Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).     

基于NOAA/POES卫星观测的磁层相对论电子起源的初探

本文利用低高度极轨卫星NOAA/POES的观测数据,并结合ACE卫星和Polar卫星的观测结果,研究分析了磁层相对论电子的起源. NOAA/POES卫星对于不同地磁活动时期相对论电子的分布和起源进行了较为详细观测, 分析结果表明（1） 亚暴期间注入磁层的能量电子可以为与磁暴相关的磁层高能电子暴提供种子电子;（2）太阳质子事件期间太阳风中的能量电子也可以为磁层中的相对论电子提供所需要的源.     

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia.     

20世纪温度变化中自然变率和人为因素的影响:基于耦合气候模式的归因模拟

本文基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近百年气温变化的模拟,讨论了自然变率和人为因素对20世纪全球变暖的相对贡献.数值试验结果表明,在自然和人为因子的共同强迫作用下,耦合模式能够合理再现20世纪全球平均气温随时间的演变;仅在自然因子作用下,模式不能再现1970年以后的全球变暖.自然因素对20世纪第一次变暖的作用是显著的,但温室气体是20世纪后期变暖的主要原因.在这一定性结论基础上,进一步对近百年变化中自然和人为因素的相对贡献做定量的归因分析,结果表明,除赤道中东太平洋和北大西洋外,人为因素对近百年的增暖起决定性作用.对全球、半球及大陆尺度而言,外强迫可以解释平均气温变化的70%以上,而内部变率贡献较小;但对于区域尺度而言,多数地区内部变率的贡献大于外强迫,区域尺度气温变化的机制较全球、半球尺度要复杂.对中国地区而言,20世纪早期的气温变化受自然变率影响,但20世纪后期的变暖主要是温室气体增加的结果.中国东部气温变化的空间分布表明,自然因素对近50年及近百年中国地区的变暖趋势贡献较小.在自然和人为因子共同作用下,模式能够再现近50年中国东部气温变化冬春两季增暖的特征、但没有模拟出夏季长江中下游地区及淮河流域的降温趋势;自然因子试验的结果表明,太阳活动对该区域的变冷有贡献,但模式无法再现该地区气温的季节变化特征.     

Longitudinal variations in the hydroxyl emission: 1. Temperature

Data on longitudinal variations in the hydroxyl emission have been obtained based on long-term studies of the mesopause temperature and hydroxyl (OH) emission at different ground stations in the Northern Hemisphere and based on temperature measurements on the UARS WINDII satellite. Maximums at longitudes of Eurasia and North America and minimums over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have been revealed in the global longitudinal temperature distribution. The average longitudinal temperature values show distinct seasonal variations. Local nonstationary large-scale inhomogeneities in the form of temperature maximums and minimums up to 30 K relative to the average temperature, correlating with the variations in the irregularity dimensions reaching several tens of degrees in longitude and latitude (which corresponds to several thousand kilometers), exist against a background of the average global temperature variation, reflecting the surface topography.     

Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?

Understanding climate change is an active topic of research. Much of the observed increase in global surface temperature over the past 150 years occurred prior to the 1940s and after the 1980s. The main causes invoked are solar variability, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas content or sulfur due to natural or anthropogenic action, or internal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Magnetism has seldom been invoked, and evidence for connections between climate and magnetic field variations have received little attention. We review evidence for correlations which could suggest such (causal or non-causal) connections at various time scales (recent secular variation ∼ 10–100 yr, historical and archeomagnetic change ∼ 100–5000 yr, and excursions and reversals ∼ 10³–10⁶ yr), and attempt to suggest mechanisms. Evidence for correlations, which invoke Milankovic forcing in the core, either directly or through changes in ice distribution and moments of inertia of the Earth, is still tenuous. Correlation between decadal changes in amplitude of geomagnetic variations of external origin, solar irradiance and global temperature is stronger. It suggests that solar irradiance could have been a major forcing function of climate until the mid-1980s, when “anomalous” warming becomes apparent. The most intriguing feature may be the recently proposed archeomagnetic jerks, i.e. fairly abrupt (∼ 100 yr long) geomagnetic field variations found at irregular intervals over the past few millennia, using the archeological record from Europe to the Middle East. These seem to correlate with significant climatic events in the eastern North Atlantic region. A proposed mechanism involves variations in the geometry of the geomagnetic field (f.i. tilt of the dipole to lower latitudes), resulting in enhanced cosmic-ray induced nucleation of clouds. No forcing factor, be it changes in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere or changes in cosmic ray flux modulated by solar activity and geomagnetism, or possibly other factors, can at present be neglected or shown to be the overwhelming single driver of climate change in past centuries. Intensive data acquisition is required to further probe indications that the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields may have significant bearing on climate change at certain time scales.     

Blocking Episodes in the Southern Hemisphere: Impact on the Climate of Adjacent Continental Areas

This work presents an updated climatology of blocking episodes for the Southern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2000, based on data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Five contiguous areas of blocking activity are considered; Southeastern Pacific, Southwestern Pacific, Atlantic, Indian and Oceania. The impact of the three most important areas of onset blocking episodes (Southeastern Pacific, Atlantic and Oceania) upon the climate of the adjacent continental areas (South America and Australia) was evaluated. Composites of the meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation) were obtained for periods of diagnosed blockings. The impact of the blocking episodes over the climate of South America and Australia is highlighted whenever anomaly fields of temperature and precipitation are significant at the 5% and 10% levels, respectively. Impacts of Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic blockings are observed on the temperature field over several regions of South America. Significantly higher (lower) temperatures than climatology occur in southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, and lower (higher) than climatology in the extreme south of South America for the Southeastern Pacific (Atlantic) blocking episodes. Precipitation over South America is also affected by the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic blockings in different ways. The Southeastern Pacific blocking has higher impact on precipitation in summer (dry conditions in northeast Brazil) and spring (wet conditions in central and southern Brazil), while the Atlantic blocking affects precipitation in autumn and winter (wet conditions in parts of central and southern Brazil). The blocking cases over Oceania affect southeastern Australia with normal to higher than climatological precipitation and with negative temperature anomalies in that region. Finally we provide a detailed analysis of a South Atlantic blocking episode, which occurred between the 4^th and the 8^th of June 1997. This event shows clearly the split of the jet stream into two branches (subtropical and polar) surrounding the anticyclonic sector, and satellite imagery revealed the presence of transient systems in the periphery of the blocking anticyclone responsible for high values of precipitation in the southeastern sector of South America.     

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planetary distribution of geomagnetic pulsations during a geomagnetic storm at solar minimum

We investigate the features of the planetary distribution of wave phenomena (geomagnetic pulsations) in the Earth’s magnetic shell (the magnetosphere) during a strong geomagnetic storm on December 14–15, 2006, which is untypical of the minimum phase of solar activity. The storm was caused by the approach of the interplanetary magnetic cloud towards the Earth’s magnetosphere. The study is based on the analysis of 1-min data of global digital geomagnetic observations at a few latitudinal profiles of the global network of ground-based magnetic stations. The analysis is focused on the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, whose frequencies fall in the band of 1.5–7 mHz (T ～ 2–10 min), on the fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in the solar wind density in this frequency band. It is shown that during the initial phase of the storm with positive IMF Bz, most intense geomagnetic pulsations were recorded in the dayside polar regions. It was supposed that these pulsations could probably be caused by the injection of the fluctuating streams of solar wind into the Earth’s ionosphere in the dayside polar cusp region. The fluctuations arising in the ionospheric electric currents due to this process are recorded as the geomagnetic pulsations by the ground-based magnetometers. Under negative IMF Bz, substorms develop in the nightside magnetosphere, and the enhancement of geomagnetic pulsations was observed in this latitudinal region on the Earth’s surface. The generation of these pulsations is probably caused by the fluctuations in the field-aligned magnetospheric electric currents flowing along the geomagnetic field lines from the substorm source region. These geomagnetic pulsations are not related to the fluctuations in the interplanetary medium. During the main phase of the magnetic storm, when fluctuations in the interplanetary medium are almost absent, the most intense geomagnetic pulsations were observed in the dawn sector in the region corresponding to the closed magnetosphere. The generation of these pulsations is likely to be associated with the resonance of the geomagnetic field lines. Thus, it is shown that the Pc5 pulsations observed on the ground during the magnetic storm have a different origin and a different planetary distribution.     

Response of the geomagnetic activity to solar wind turbulence during solar cycle 23

The solar wind–magnetosphere coupled system is characterized by dynamical processes. Recent works have shown that nonlinear couplings and turbulence might play a key role in the study of solar wind–magnetosphere interaction processes.Within this framework, this study presents a statistical analysis aimed to investigate the relationship between solar wind MHD turbulence and geomagnetic activity at high and low latitudes as measured by the AE and SYM-H indices, respectively. This analysis has been performed for different phases of solar cycle 23. The state of turbulence was characterized by means of 2-D histograms of the normalized cross-helicity and the normalized residual energy. The geomagnetic response was then studied in relation to those histograms.The results found clearly show that, from a statistical point of view, solar cycle 23 is somewhat peculiar. Indeed, good Alfvénic correlations are found unexpectedly even during solar activity maximum. This fact has implications on the geomagnetic response as well since a statistical relationship is found between Alfvénic fluctuations and auroral activity. Conversely, solar wind turbulence does not seem to play a relevant role in the geomagnetic response at low latitudes.     

2008年和2012年冬季欧洲气候的差异及成因

2008年冬季（1月和2月）和2012年冬季均发生了较强的拉尼娜事件,但欧洲气候,尤其是西欧在这两年差异较大,2008年异常偏暖,而2012年却出现了极寒事件.诊断表明,大气环流异常是造成气候差异的直接原因.2008年冬季,北大西洋上空大气环流异常呈正位相的北大西洋涛动,有利于欧洲异常偏暖;2012年冬季,北大西洋和欧亚高纬阻塞的长期维持是西欧发生极端严寒的重要原因.通过数值试验,研究了前期海表热状况异常对大气的影响.结果表明：北大西洋海温异常能在一定程度上解释这两年欧洲各自的气候异常;尽管热带海温异常对2012年冬季的北大西洋环流形势和欧洲气候异常起一定的贡献,但不能解释2008年的情形;靠近欧洲的北极海冰异常偏少使得欧洲气候偏冷,对2008年的偏暖气候贡献为负,对2012年则有正贡献.     

A 22 yr hurricane cycle and its relation with geomagnetic activity

Applying spectral analysis to the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane time series, we found periodicities that coincide with the main sunspot and magnetic solar cycles. To assess the possibility that these periodicities could be associated with solar activity, we obtain correlations between hurricane occurrence and several solar activity-related phenomena, such as the total solar irradiance, the cosmic ray flux and the Dst index of geomagnetic activity. Our results indicate that the highest significant correlations are found between the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes and the Dst index. Most importantly, both oceans present the highest hurricane–Dst correlations during the ascending part of odd solar cycles and the descending phase of even solar cycles. This shows not only the existence of a 22 yr cycle but also the nature of such periodicity. Furthermore, we found that the Atlantic hurricanes behave differently from the Pacific hurricanes in relation to the solar activity-related disturbances considered.     

Global Pi3 geomagnetic pulsations as a response of large variations in the solar wind and IMF during the magnetic storm of August 5, 2011

Spatial-temporal and spectral features of ground geomagnetic pulsations in the frequency range of 1–5 mHz at the initial phase of a strong magnetic storm of the 24th cycle of solar activity (August 5–6, 2011, with a Dst-variation in the storm maximum of ?110 nT) are analyzed. Large opposite in sign amplitudes of variations in IMF parameters (from ?20 to +20 nT) at a high velocity of the solar wind (～650 km/s) accompanied by intense bursts in solar-wind density (up to ～50 cm^?3) were distinctive feature of interplanetary medium conditions causing the storm. Geomagnetic Pi3 pulsations global in longitude and latitude and in-phase in the middle and equatorial latitudes were found. The onset of pulsation generation was caused by a pulse of dynamic pressure of the solar wind (～20 nPa), i.e., by a considerable compression of the magnetosphere. The maximum (2–3 mHz) in the amplitude spectrum of near-equatorial pulsations coincided with the maximum of pulsations in the daytime polar cap. After the next jump of the dynamic pressure of the solar wind (～35 nPa), an additional maximum appeared in the pulsation spectrum in the frequency band of ～3.5–4.5 mHz. Global pulsations suddenly stopped after a sharp decrease in the solar-wind dynamic pressure and corresponding extension of the magnetosphere. The obtained results are compared with the time dynamics of the position and shape of the plasmapause.     

Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, strong correlations between the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and calculated three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm vertical fluxes are indicated in December 1958–1976 and 1992–2006. These correlations between the interannual variations of the SST anomalies and the penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere are much less during the decadal sub-period 1976–1992 in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the decadal cold SST anomalies in the North Pacific. Interannual variations of the polar jet in the lower stratosphere in January are strongly associated with SST anomalies in the Aleutian Low region in December for the years with positive PDO index. This sub-period corresponds well with that of the violation of the Holton–Tan relationship between the equatorial Quasi-Beinnial Oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric circulation in the extra-tropics. It is shown that interannual and interdecadal variations of stratospheric dynamics, including stratospheric warming occurrences in January, depend strongly on changes of the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere over North Eurasia in preceding December. These findings give evidences of a large impact of the decadal SST variations in the North Pacific on wave activity in early winter due to changes of thermal excitation of planetary waves during distinct decadal periods. Possible causes of the decadal violation of the Holton–Tan relationship, its relation to the PDO and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere are discussed.     

Phase-coherent oscillatory modes in solar and geomagnetic activity and climate variability

Oscillatory modes with the period of approximately 7–8 yr were detected in monthly time series of sunspot numbers, geomagnetic activity aa index, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and near-surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations. Instantaneous phases of the modes underwent synchronization analysis and their statistically significant phase coherence, beginning from 1950s, has been observed. Thus the statistical evidence for a coupling between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability has been obtained from continuous monthly data, independent of the season, however, confined to the temporal scale related to oscillatory periods about 7–8 yr.     

Direct evidence of the feedback between climate and weathering

Long-term climate moderation is commonly attributed to chemical weathering; the higher the temperature and precipitation the faster the weathering rate. Weathering releases divalent cations to the ocean via riverine transport where they promote the drawdown of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the precipitation and subsequent burial of carbonate minerals. To test this widely-held hypothesis, we performed a field study determining the weathering rates of 8 nearly pristine north-eastern Iceland river catchments with varying glacial cover over 44 years. The mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of these catchments varied by 3.2 to 4.5 °C and 80 to 530%, respectively during the study period. Statistically significant linear positive correlations were found between mean annual temperature and chemical weathering in all 8 catchments and between mean annual temperature and both mechanical weathering and runoff in 7 of the 8 catchments. For each degree of temperature increase, the runoff, mechanical weathering flux, and chemical weathering fluxes in these catchments are found to increase from 6 to 16%, 8 to 30%, and 4 to 14% respectively, depending on the catchment. In contrast, annual precipitation is less related to the measured fluxes; statistically significant correlations between annual precipitation and runoff, mechanical weathering, and chemical weathering were found for 3 of the least glaciated catchments. Mechanical and chemical weathering increased with time in all catchments over the 44 year period. These correlations were statistically significant for only 2 of the 8 catchments due to scatter in corresponding annual runoff and average annual temperature versus time plots. Taken together, these results 1) demonstrate a significant feedback between climate and Earth surface weathering, and 2) suggest that weathering rates are currently increasing with time due to global warming.