Temperature variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past 40 years,from an in situ analysis and a 3D global simulation

A global in situ analysis and a global ocean simulation are used jointly to study interannual to decadal variability of temperature in the Bay of Biscay, from 1965 to 2003. A strong cooling is obtained at all depths until the mid-1970's, followed by a sustained warming over ～30 years. Strong interannual fluctuations are superimposed on this slow evolution. The fluctuations are intensified at the surface and are weakest at ～500 m. A good agreement is found between the observed and simulated temperatures, in terms of mean values, interannual variability and time correlations. Only the decadal trend is significantly underestimated in the simulation. A comparison to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data over the last 20 years is also presented. The first mode of interannual variability exhibits a quasi-uniform structure and is related to the inverse winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Regarding the vertical structure, most cool and warm anomalies are generated at the surface, with the strongest ones penetrating down to 700 m and lasting up to 5 years. The complete heat budget from 1965 to 2004 is presented, including the contributions of vertical transport, freshwater flux and surface elevation. Interannual anomalies are mainly generated by the surface heat flux, while oceanic transports may become more important at longer time scales.     

过去2000年以来地磁偶极子的长期变化

利用地磁场模型资料,计算和分析了公元0～2000年的地磁场偶极子磁矩和地磁北极位置的长期变化。结果表明:过去2000年中,地磁场的偶极子磁矩并非一直减小,有近400年的时间是持续增长的。地磁北极位置的移动并不均匀,在纬度方向的变化范围只有10°左右,经度方向变化有255°。     

顶部电离层电子密度和温度的统计背景及其地磁活动变化

通过对DEMETER卫星从2004年11月7日至2005年11月30日期间探测到的710 km高度顶部电离层的电子数据进行网格化(纬度2°×经度4°)统计平均,本文分析了不同地磁条件下顶部电离层电子密度和温度的全球分布情况.不论是在地磁宁静还是地磁活动期间,顶部电离层电子密度的分布都存在着一个巨大的威德尔海异常(夜间电子密度高于白天的)区域(30°W~180°W和 30°S~75°S)、夜间中纬槽(35°N~60°N和35°S~60°S)和夜间南大西洋地磁负异常区域的低密度结构,而且电子密度在磁倾(dip)赤道附近最大,说明710 km高度的顶部电离层并不存在赤道异常.和电子密度的分布相反,电子温度在磁倾赤道附近最小,在等离子体层顶附近最大.在地磁活动期间,顶部电离层电子的密度普遍增加,同时电子密度的赤道峰值向中纬区扩宽.但是,地磁活动并没有明显地改变威德尔海异常区和夜间中纬槽的空间范围.另外,地磁活动对电子温度的影响并不明显,它仅造成了等离子体层顶附近的电子温度增大.     

近40年洞庭湖区内湖水面面积变化及其驱动因素

选择1979-2016年间多时期、多类型、多光谱遥感数据,分析评价洞庭湖区内湖近40年的面积变化.结果表明,最近40年洞庭湖区内湖面积保持相对稳定,丰水期间呈上升趋势,枯水期间波动下降,2016年内湖总面积比1980s初减少3.94%.随着湖泊面积增加,湖泊水面面积变化的比例和幅度逐渐减小,大型湖泊（>10 km²）和中型湖泊（5~10 km²）面积相对稳定,小型内湖（<5 km²）面积变化尤为剧烈.内湖水面面积主要受降雨、蒸发等气候因素和生产生活取水、防洪排涝和退田还湖等人为活动调控.1980-2000年和2001-2015年两个时期,洞庭湖区多年平均降雨量呈现不同程度的下降趋势,多年平均蒸发量明显上升.三峡工程运行后,三口分流衰减,但水资源需求量不断增长,退田还湖和留蓄雨洪作为水资源使得丰水期间内湖水面面积增长,气候变化和水资源开发利用导致枯水期水面面积趋于减少.有必要加强洞庭湖区内湖的研究和保护,适当退田还湖提高湖泊率,优化三口水系格局,实施河湖水系连通工程,缓解洞庭湖区季节性水资源紧张问题.     

近40年来太湖梅梁湾底栖动物群落演变特征及驱动因素

梅梁湾是太湖北部最大湖湾,也是太湖生态环境问题最严重的区域之一,近年来对太湖治理力度不断加大,然而对其生态状况演变的认识尚不清晰。本文基于长期监测及文献资料,获得1980s以来太湖梅梁湾底栖动物及环境因子数据,分析底栖动物种类组成、优势种、丰度的时空变化,应用非度量多维尺度分析(NMDS)和随机森林(RF)分析群落结构演变及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明,梅梁湾1980—2019年共记录到44属(种)底栖动物,以摇蚊幼虫和软体动物为主,总丰度年际变化显著,40年来底栖群落结构发生显著变化,优势种经历了由较敏感的软体类为主到以耐污寡毛类、摇蚊幼虫等为主的转变。综合NMDS和随机森林分析结果,梅梁湾底栖动物群落演变大致可分为4个阶段:1980s及以前,物种多样性丰富,以河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)等大型软体动物为优势种;1990s—2007年,底栖动物群落快速退化,以耐污种占优;2008—2016年,水生态略有恢复,河蚬等清洁种略有回升;2017—2019年,耐污种优势度和丰度反弹。近40年来梅梁湾底栖动物群落变化主要受底质氮磷、有机质和水体营养盐、蓝藻水华等环境因子变化的影...     

Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years

The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of T_max and T_min in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between T_max and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between T_min and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between T_min and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased T_max brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased T_min had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher T_min.     

Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium

The possibility of using global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change or the global mean ocean heat-flux as predictors to statistically estimate the change of global mean sea-level is explored in the context of a long climate simulation of the past millennium with the climate model ECHO-G. Such relationships have recently been proposed to by-pass the difficulty of estimating future sea-level changes based on simulations with coarse-resolution climate models. It is found that, in this simulation, a simple linear relationship between mean temperature and the rate of change of sea level does not exist. A regression parameter linking both variables, and estimated in sliding 120-year windows, varies widely along the simulation and, in some periods, even attains negative values. The ocean heat-flux and the rate-of-change of mean temperature seem to better capture the rate-of-change of sea level due to thermal expansion.     

Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment during the Holocene and the past 50 kyr

All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50  kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding  40  kyr, and that  4 · 10²²  Am² appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur.     

武汉东湖主要湖区的藻类与营养型评价

对东湖９个湖区藻类的群落结构、生长潜力、初级生产力和营养状况进行了比较研究。结果表明,９个湖区藻类的种类组成无明显差异,绿藻为主,蓝藻和硅藻次之;藻类的生长潜力和初级生产力各湖区差异较大,均以茶港湾重污染区最高和牛巢湖最低。根据各项指标综合分析,９个湖区水质优劣的顺序是：牛巢湖、汤林湖、后湖、郭郑湖、菱角湖、筲箕湖、庙湖、喻家湖和茶港湾重污染区。对东湖的大水面郭郑湖４０年来藻类的有关参数进行比较发     

磁暴期离子上行与太阳风及地磁活动水平的统计关系

利用FAST卫星ESA仪器第23太阳活动周上升相(1997-1998年)的观测数据,选取20个磁暴期间能量为4~300 eV的离子上行事件,研究不同磁暴相位电离层上行离子的能通量与太阳风、地磁活动以及电子沉降的统计关系.结果表明：(1)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相离子上行平均能通量为6.08×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)、5.75×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)和3.91×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV),初相期间上行离子能通量最大;(2)上行离子能通量与太阳风动压、行星际磁场B_Z分量存在相关关系,相关系数分别为0.47和-0.38;(3)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量与Sym-H的相关系数分别为0.74、-0.77和-0.54,与Kp的相关系数分别为0.53、0.75和0.65,整体上离子上行与Sym-H指数的相关性好于Kp指数;(4)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量和电子数通量的相关系数分别为0.74、0.52和0.32,表明磁暴期间软电子(< 1 keV)沉降可以显著提高电离层离子温度;F区的等离子体摩擦加热和双极电场是离子上行的重要获能机制.本文构建的上行离子能通量与Sym-H和电子数通量的经验关系显著,可用于磁流体模拟研究.

     

Cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years

Land use/cover change induced by human activities has emerged as a “global” phenomenon with Earth system consequences. Northeast China is an area where the largest land cultivation activities by migrants have happened in China during the past 300 years. In this paper, methods including documentary data calibration and multi-sourced data conversion model are used to reconstruct historical cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years. It is concluded that human beings have remarkably changed the natural landscape of the region by land cultivation in the past 300 years. Cropland area has increased almost exponentially during the past 300 years, especially during the past 100 years when the ratio of cropland cover changed from 10% to 20%. Until the middle of the 19th century, the agricultural area was still mainly restricted in Liaoning Province. From the late 19th century to the early 20th century, dramatic changes took place when the northern boundary of cultivation had extended to the middle of Heilongjiang Province. During the 20th century, three agricultural regions with high ratio of cropland cover were formed after the two phases of spatial expansion of cropland area in 1900s–1930s and 1950s–1980s. Since 1930s–1940s, the expansion of new cultivated area have invaded the forest lands especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40571165) and Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-315)     

Tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for East Asia over the past 700 years

Almost all proxy-based temperature reconstructions for East Asia have hitherto been designed to resolve summer or annual temperature variability. Reconstruction for the winter temperature is still lacking. Here, we report an annually resolved,winter-season(December-February, DJF) temperature field reconstruction for East Asia covering the period 1300-2000 CE,based on 260 temperature-sensitive tree-ring records. The most striking feature of our new reconstruction is a significant longterm warming trend since the 14th century, which is associated with winter solar insolation at mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the global anthropogenic impact. The amplitude of reconstructed winter temperature change over the study period was ～4.7 times greater than that for summer temperature, and the rate of winter temperature increase was ～6 times as much as that of summer temperature. The results from climate model simulations were consistent with the reconstruction,showing that the amplitude and rate of temperature change in winter were greater than those in summer. The reconstruction also suggests the possible influence of volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic activities and winter solar insolation on the winter temperature variations. Our result also suggests a long-term decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference occurred in 1625(±24 years) CE.     

Despinning of the earth rotation in the geological past and geomagnetic paleointensities

Length of day (l.o.d.) values deduced from fossils and tidal deposits suggest that the despinning rate was, on the average, about 5 times smaller during the Proterozoic than during the Phanerozoic and, moreover, that between 250 and 100 million years ago, there was a slight non-linear variation super-imposed on the overall linear trend of the Earth's rotation rate. To explain these observational facts, it has recently been argued that formation of the inner structure of the Earth (mass redistribution within the mantle and/or core formation) had not been fully completed before the Proterozoic, and that the decrease of the inertia moment associated with the evolving terrestrial interior compensated to some extent the rotational effects of tidal friction. There is an another plausible explanation to account for the difference of despinning rates during the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic, namely: the distribution of the continents had been significantly different during these epochs and the world ocean had been much shallower in the Proterozoic than in the Phanerozoic. We used published data for the Phanerozoic, Proterozoic and Archean in order to check whether there had been significant long-term changes of geomagnetic intensity. Our results are based on robust statistical analysis; they indicate that during a time interval coinciding roughly with the Mesozoic, the geomagnetic dipole moment underwent a minimum in a quite similar way as the l.o.d. data. For the Proterozoic (2500–570 million years ago) and the late Archean (3000–2500 million years ago), it is very difficult to draw a conclusion concerning the variation in time of the intensity of the geomagnetic field: the data set we used is incomplete and the statistical scatter is larger than the derived mean value. Nevertheless, we tentatively conclude that the values of the average geomagnetic moment were approximately the same in the Phanerozoic and in the Proterozoic+late Archean, and that there is no significant long-term change in the geomagnetic intensity detectable before the Phanerozoic.     

On the intensity of the geomagnetic field in the geological past

A detailed analysis of the data on the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole and frequency of its reversals presented in the world’s paleointensity databases provided the arguments in favor of the hypothesis of the negative correlation between the average virtual dipole moment (VDM) and the frequency of the reversals on the interval from 5 Ma to 100 Ma ago. However, the statistical confidence level of this hypothesis is only 60–70%, which is far below 95%, the standard required confidence level of a hypothesis to be considered statistically reliable. At a high level of confidence (above 99%), the presence of a positive correlation between the mean value and variance of VDM for a number of intervals of stable polarity in the Cenozoic and Mesozoic is confirmed. This finding means that the distribution of VDM on these time intervals is certainly non-Gaussian and is rather described by the gamma- or lognormal law. At the same time, in contrast to the earlier intervals, the histogram of VDM for the Brunhes epoch is closer to the normal distribution. Compared our conclusions with the published results on the numerical modeling of the geodynamo, we found that they are consistent in terms of a probable negative correlation between the average VDM and reversal frequency, as well as the lack of correlation between the average VDM and the length of the interval of stable polarity.     

General characteristics of climate changes during the past 2000 years in China

The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China,regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions.The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty,including the western and eastern Han Dynasties(200 BC-AD 180),the Sui and Tang dynasties(541-810),the Song and Yuan dynasties(931-1320),and the 20th century,and three cold phases involving the Wei,Jin,and North-South Dynasties(181-540),the late Tang Dynasty(811-930),and the Ming and Qing dynasties(1321-1920).The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere,and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age,respectively.The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate,and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500.In the context of the climate warming,the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China.In addition,the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years,but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century.     

法国地球透镜计划(GEOSCOPE):过去30年的进展与挑战

1长周期地震学的早期概况 巴黎地球物理学院（Institutde Physiquedu Globein Paris,简称IPGP）在长周期地震学和观测设施方面有着雄厚的基础。该学院的地震实验室于1952-1982年设计了人工操作的地震仪,主要用于对固体潮倾斜的研究。经过多次尝试,Blum等胡在1957年终于研制出了第一台原型倾斜仪。     

Contribution of global Pc5 oscillations to magnetic disturbance during geomagnetic storms

The contribution of global magnetospheric oscillations to magnetic disturbance during magnetospheric storms is studied. The bases of magnetic data from the INTERMAGNET global network in combination with the interplanetary and intramagnetospheric measurements of the magnetic field and plasma and the sets of the Kp, Dst, and AE indices are used for this purpose. The most favorable conditions in the solar wind and magnetosphere for generation of global Pc5 have been revealed. The contribution of these oscillations to the variations in the magnetic disturbance level, characterized by the AE index, has been estimated. The findings confirm that magnetospheric MHD oscillations participate in the processes of energy income from the solar wind and energy dissipation in the magnetosphere.     

Common oscillatory modes in geomagnetic activity, NAO index and surface air temperature records

Detection and extraction of quasi-oscillatory dynamical modes from instrumental records of geophysical data became a useful tool in analyzing variability of observed phenomena reflected in complex, multivariate geophysical signals. Using the extension of the Monte Carlo singular system analysis (MC SSA), based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, we demonstrate detection of oscillatory modes with period of about 96 months in the long-term records of aa index as well as in the records of surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations and in the North Atlantic Oscillation index.