Shallow groundwater temperature response to climate change and urbanization

Groundwater temperatures, especially in shallow (quaternary) aquifers respond to ground surface temperatures which in turn depend on climate and land use. Groundwater temperatures, therefore, are modified by climate change and urban development. In northern temperate climate regions seasonal temperature cycles penetrate the ground to depths on the order of 10–15 m. In this paper, we develop and apply analytic heat transfer relationships for 1-D unsteady effective diffusion of heat through an unsaturated zone into a flowing aquifer a short distance below the ground surface. We estimate how changes in land use (urban development) and climate change may affect shallow groundwater temperatures. We consider both long-term trends and seasonal cycles in surface temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that a fully urbanized downtown area at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul is likely to have a groundwater temperature that is nearly 3 °C warmer than an undeveloped agricultural area at the same geographic location. Pavements are the main cause of this change. Data collected by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) in the St. Cloud, MN area confirm that land use influences groundwater temperatures. Ground surface temperatures are also projected to rise in response to global warming. In the extreme case of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂ climate scenario), groundwater temperatures in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area could therefore rise by up to 4 °C. Compounding a land use change from “undeveloped” to “fully urbanized” and a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, groundwater temperatures are projected to rise by about 5 °C at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul.     

A multi-resolution global land cover dataset through multisource data aggregation

Recent developments of 30 m global land characterization datasets(e.g., land cover, vegetation continues field) represent the finest spatial resolution inputs for global scale studies. Here, we present results from further improvement to land cover mapping and impact analysis of spatial resolution on area estimation for different land cover types. We proposed a set of methods to aggregate two existing 30 m resolution circa 2010 global land cover maps, namely FROM-GLC(Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring-Global Land Cover) and FROM-GLC-seg(Segmentation), with two coarser resolution global maps on development, i.e., Nighttime Light Impervious Surface Area(NL-ISA) and MODIS urban extent(MODIS-urban), to produce an improved 30 m global land cover map—FROM-GLC-agg(Aggregation). It was post-processed using additional coarse resolution datasets(i.e., MCD12Q1, GlobCover2009, MOD44 W etc.) to reduce land cover type confusion. Around 98.9% pixels remain 30 m resolution after some post-processing to this dataset. Based on this map, majority aggregation and proportion aggregation approaches were employed to create a multi-resolution hierarchy(i.e., 250 m, 500 m, 1 km, 5 km, 10 km, 25 km, 50 km, 100 km) of land cover maps to meet requirements for different resolutions from different applications. Through accuracy assessment, we found that the best overall accuracies for the post-processed base map(at 30 m) and the three maps subsequently aggregated at 250 m, 500 m, 1 km resolutions are 69.50%, 76.65%, 74.65%, and 73.47%, respectively. Our analysis of area-estimation biases for different land cover types at different resolutions suggests that maps at coarser than 5 km resolution contain at least 5% area estimation error for most land cover types. Proportion layers, which contain precise information on land cover percentage, are suggested for use when coarser resolution land cover data are required.     

Hydrogeomorphic types of glacially created kettle holes in North-East Germany

Kettle holes are glacially created, small, shallow, depressional wetlands collecting their water from internal or closed catchments in young moraine landscapes. Their water body is defined by having a maximum of 1 ha in extent. Mostly they undergo a wet-dry circle. In North-East Germany, kettle holes are widely spread, mostly on arable land. They are characterised by large differences in hydroperiod (HP), size, shape and edge steepness. They also have a high potential for both, geomorphic structural diversity and biological species diversity. However, kettle holes are subject to pollution, drainage and structural reduction that result from intensive land use practices.Although kettle holes in Germany are protected by law, protection strategies are not specific enough with respect to the variability of kettle holes, especially of HP. Therefore, the study objective was to characterise hydrogeomorphic (HGM) kettle hole types to create a basis for a decision support system with regard to the selection of the type dependent conservation and management measures.In three agricultural landscapes in North-East Germany, geomorphological and hydrological variables of 268 kettle holes (HP, shore overflow tendency, depth, area, form, shore width and slope) as well as those of their catchments (area, wetland to catchment area ratio, relief) were investigated from 1993 to 2003. By statistical analysis of datasets of 144 kettle holes, 10 HGM kettle hole types were defined. The basic types are “silted fen type” and “open-water type”. Basic subtypes of the latter type are “storage type”, “shore overflow type” and “puddle type”. Differences in spreading of kettle hole types in dependency on landscape relief were found.     

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) IV: Model sensitivity to data aggregation and spatial (re-)distribution

This paper analyses the effect of spatial resolution and distribution of model input data on the results of regional-scale land use scenarios using three different hydrological catchment models. A 25 m resolution data set of a mesoscale catchment and three land use scenarios are used. Data are systematically aggregated to resolutions up to 2 km. Land use scenarios are spatially redistributed, both randomly and topography based. Using these data, water fluxes are calculated on a daily time step for a 16 year time period without further calibration. Simulation results are used to identify grid size, distribution and model dependent scenario effects. In the case of data aggregation, all applied models react sensitively to grid size. WASIM and TOPLATS simulate constant water balances for grid sizes from 50 m to 300–500 m, SWAT is more sensitive to input data aggregation, simulating constant water balances between 50 m and 200 m grid size. The calculation of scenario effects is less robust to data aggregation. The maximum acceptable grid size reduces to 200–300 m for TOPLATS and WASIM. In case of spatial distribution, SWAT and TOPLATS are slightly sensitive to a redistribution of land use (below 1.5% for water balance terms), whereas WASIM shows almost no reaction. Because the aggregation effects were stronger than the redistribution effects, it is concluded that spatial discretisation is more important than spatial distribution. As the aggregation effect was mainly associated with a change in land use fraction, it is concluded that accuracy of data sets is much more important than a high spatial resolution.     

Up-scaling of SEBAL derived evapotranspiration maps from Landsat (30 m) to MODIS (250 m) scale

Remotely sensed imagery of the Earth’s surface via satellite sensors provides information to estimate the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration (ET). The spatial resolution of ET predictions depends on the sensor type and varies from the 30–60 m Landsat scale to the 250–1000 m MODIS scale. Therefore, for an accurate characterization of the regional distribution of ET, scaling transfer between images of different resolutions is important. Scaling transfer includes both up-scaling (aggregation) and down-scaling (disaggregation). In this paper, we address the up-scaling problem.The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive ET maps from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. Landsat 7 bands have spatial resolutions of 30–60 m, while MODIS bands have resolutions of 250, 500 and 1000 m. Evaluations were conducted for both “output” and “input” up-scaling procedures, with aggregation accomplished by both simple averaging and nearest neighboring resampling techniques. Output up-scaling consisted of first applying SEBAL and then aggregating the output variable (daily ET). Input up-scaling consisted of aggregating 30 m Landsat pixels of the input variable (radiance) to obtain pixels at 60, 120, 250, 500 and 1000 m before SEBAL was applied. The objectives of this study were first to test the consistency of SEBAL algorithm for Landsat and MODIS satellite images and second to investigate the effect of the four different up-scaling processes on the spatial distribution of ET.We conclude that good agreement exists between SEBAL estimated ET maps directly derived from Landsat 7 and MODIS images. Among the four up-scaling methods the output simple averaging method produced aggregated data and aggregated differences with the most statistically and spatially predictable behavior. The input nearest neighbor method was the least predictable but was still acceptable. Overall, the daily ET maps over the Middle Rio Grande Basin aggregated from Landsat images were in good agreement with ET maps directly derived from MODIS images.     

北京精细下垫面信息引入对暴雨模拟的影响

首先根据2000年环北京实际的精细下垫面布局资料（500m分辨率）,按美国USGS陆面资料分类标准（25类）对其提供的全球30 s经纬分辨率（≈1 km）下垫面分类资料进行了更新设计.进而针对一个北京夏季暴雨过程,利用10:3.3km双向双重嵌套的MM5V3.6-Noah LSM陆气耦合模式进行24h数值对比试验,研究了北京精细下垫面信息引入对暴雨的影响.分析表明：新设计的陆面资料更真实地反映了环北京区域的下垫面结构,尤其针对北京城区面积迅增特征;同时还修正了原资料将亚洲中纬度区域落叶阔叶林下垫面类型归属为热带(或亚热带)稀疏大草原类型的问题.其在数值天气模式中的引入会对短期暴雨过程的发生发展产生重要影响.对此次暴雨主要降水中心的模拟,12h差值分布范围远达30km以上,中心值相对差异可达30%.研究发现在城市下垫面和大气相互间存在一个重要的相互影响机制,即由于城区面积的扩大会导致自然植被减少,进而会减少地表蒸发及相应局地大气水分供应、加深边界层高度并增强大气水汽混合,这不利于降水的发生发展.     

Laurentia crustal motion observed using TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry over land

A new method to estimate the vertical crustal motion from satellite altimetry over land was developed. The method was tested around Hudson Bay, where the observed vertical motion is largely caused by the incomplete glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) as a result of the Laurentide ice sheet deglaciation since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Decadal (1992–2003) TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data over land surfaces were used. The results presented here are improved compared to a previous study (Lee, H., Shum, C.K., Kuo, C.Y., Yi, Y., Braun, A., 2008. Application of TOPEX altimetry for solid Earth deformation studies. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 19, 37–46. doi:10.3319/TAO.2008.19.1-2.37(SA).) which estimated vertical motion only over relatively flat land surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <40 cm). In this study, we extended the concept of traditional 1-Hz (one-per-frame) radar altimeter ocean stackfiles to build 10-Hz (10-per-frame) land stackfiles over Hudson Bay land regions, and succeeded in obtaining vertical motion estimates over much rougher surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <2 m). 90-m C-band Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is used as a reference surface to select an optimal waveform retracker, to correct surface gradient errors, and to calculate land surface anomalies. Here, we developed an alternative retracker, called the modified threshold retracker, resulting in decadal vertical motion time series over a 1500 km by 1000 km region covering northern Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and the Great Lakes region which is at the margin of the former Laurentide ice sheet. The average of the estimated uncertainties for the vertical motion is 2.9 mm/year which is comparable to 2.1 mm/year of recent GPS solutions. The estimated vertical motion is compared with other geodetic observations from GPS, tide gauge/altimetry, GRACE, and several GIA models. The data agree best with the laterally varying 3D GIA model, RF3S20 (β = 0.4) whereas the combination of land altimetry solution with other measurements match best with the models RF3S20 (β = 0.0) or RF3S20 (β = 0.2) in terms of mean and standard deviation of the differences. It is anticipated that this innovative technique could potentially be used to provide additional constraints for GIA model improvement, and be applied to other geodynamics studies.     

Assessing land use and land cover influence on surface water quality using a parametric weighted distance function

Stream water quality is directly influenced by land use and human practices in the surrounding environment. Understanding such effects and the spatial extent of impacts is essential to generate reliable information for ecosystem-based management of water resources. We identified sources of impact on water quality and characterized indicator-specific landscape influence on samples collected during base flow along the Chubut River (43 °S, 69 °W). We modeled Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorous (TP), Soluble Reactive Phosphorous (SRP) concentrations and δ¹⁵N of particulate organic matter along the river, as a function of effective contribution areas (A_EC) of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC). A_ECs were calculated by assuming that landscape influence decays exponentially with the Euclidean distance between a given LULC parcel and the sampling point. We calibrated the model to the observations by estimating an indicator-specific decay rate. Agriculture and barren lands were the main sources of phosphate nutrients whereas urban areas were the main source of TN. Radius of landscape influence for SRP (100–180 km) was larger than for TP (10–25 km), reflecting different patterns of mobilization and delivery in the catchment. δ¹⁵N variation was explained by vegetation cover but the influence rapidly decreased (1–4 km) reflecting a mostly autochthonous source of organic matter.     

Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km². Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989–2004. We classified each basin using a “permeability index” which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from “low” to “high permeability”. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the ‘permeability index’, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow–duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large.     

Earthquakes in continental Antarctica

No earthquake had been definitely located in the interior of the Antarctic continent before that in Dronning Maud Land, which occurred on 1982 November 4, and was found by the “search” procedure of the International Seismological Centre. A further earthquake of similar magnitude (Mb 4.4) has now been located about 200 km inland from the coast of Wilkes Land, near 69°S, 123°E. The second event occurred on 1983 September 20, and was also found by the ISC search procedure, from readings at four Antarctic seismograph stations, and six farther afield. Reflected phases suggest that the focus of this earthquake is in the upper few kilometres of rock beneath the ice cap. Two later earthquakes occurred on 1984 May 19 about 400 km west of the event of 1983 September 20. They had magnitudes (Mb) of 5.0 and 4.6, and were large enough to be located by the US National Earthquake Information Service.     

From regional seismic hazard to “scenario earthquakes” for seismic microzoning: A new methodological tool for the Celano Project

We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions.Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard.The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large (M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance 16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 590 years; (2) moderate (M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance 7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 500 years; and (3) large (M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance 24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 980 years.The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction.     

Evaluation of multiple regression models using spatial variables to predict nitrate concentrations in volcanic aquifers

Multiple linear regression of spatial variables including land use, soil type, and topography was applied to predict nitrate concentration and evaluate major factors affecting nitrate occurrence in springs and wells in the southern and northern areas of Jeju volcanic island, Korea. Three types of contributing area surrogates (CAS), namely circle, semicircle, and wedge, were employed to calculate the spatial variables. The regression results showed R² of 0.81–0.84 for springs and 0.74–0.77 for wells; R² values for wedge and semicircular CAS were more than 10% higher than those for circular CAS. The R² of spring models was significantly affected by both the shape and size of CAS, with optimal radii of 150–250 m and 300–400 m in the southern and northern areas, respectively, corresponding to thinner upper basaltic aquifers, and implying shorter flow paths in the southern area. The most influential variables in springs were orchards and soil types related to agriculture including silty loam and silty clay loam, indicating that nitrate levels are strongly affected by N fertilization in cultivated areas. In contrast, wells showed much less sensitivity to both shapes and sizes of CAS, with less contribution of land use and soil type to the regression, which could be attributed to a mix of multiple aquifer zones and widely different factors in the installation and operation of wells. Field parameters of electrical conductivity (EC) and pH increased the R² up to 10%, suggesting that these can be useful when regression with spatial variables yields a lower R². The optimal spatial scales for prediction of nitrate concentration and spatial variables that significantly contribute to nitrate contamination can provide relevant criteria for establishing groundwater management policies, considering the increasing anthropogenic land‐use trends on the island, where groundwater is highly sensitive to changes in spatial variables. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of land use at different spatial scales on instream features in agricultural streams

The conversion of forests into agriculture has been identified as a key process for stream homogenization. However, the effects of this conversion can be scale-dependent. In this context, our aim was to identify the influence of different land uses at different spatial scales (catchment, drainage network and local) on instream features in agricultural streams. We defined six classes of land use: native forest, reforestation, herbaceous and shrubs, pasture, sugarcane and other categories. We obtained 22 variables related to instream, riparian area, stream morphology and water physicochemical characteristics in 86 stream reaches. To identify and isolate the effect of different land uses at different spatial scales on instream features, we performed a partial redundancy analysis (p-RDA). Different land uses and scales influenced instream features and defined two stream groups: (i) homogeneous streams with a higher proportion of sand substrate and instream grasses that were associated with the proportion of herbaceous vegetation at the local scale and with pasture at all scales and (ii) heterogeneous streams with a higher physical habitat integrity associated with the proportion of forest and sugarcane at the local and catchment scales. Land use at the catchment scale affected the physicochemical water properties and stream morphology, whereas stream physical habitat (i.e., substrate, instream cover, marginal vegetation and stream physical habitat condition) was mainly influenced by land use at the local scale (i.e., 150 m radius). Pure catchment, drainage network and local land uses explained 9%, 7% and 4%, respectively, of the total variation of instream features. Thus, to be most effective, stream conservation and restoration efforts should not be limited to only one scale.     

The entrance of pyroclastic flows into the sea, II. theoretical considerations on subaqueous emplacement and welding

The submarine counterparts of late Quaternary subaerial pyroclastic flow deposits off the western flanks of Dominica, Lesser Antilles, have been investigated by 3.5 kHz seismic profiling and dredging (cruise EN20 of R/V “Endeavor”). Block-and-ash flow deposits formed by dome collapse and a welded ignimbrite from a prominent fan at Grande Savanne, Dominica. This fan can be traced underwater as a major constructional ridge (2–4 km wide and 200–400 m thick) to over 13 km offshore at a water depth of 1800 m. The submarine ridge has a volume of 14 km³ and has the characteristic morphology of a debris flow apron composed of several individual units. The evidence suggests that pyroclastic flows can move underwater without losing their essential character.     

Geographic variations in shell growth rates of the mussel Diplodon chilensis from temperate lakes of Chile: Implications for biodiversity conservation

The Chilean lake district includes diverse lentic ecosystems along ca. 700 km of the country (36°–43°S), including the “Nahuelbutan lakes”, “Araucanian lakes” and “Chiloe lakes”. This area is recognized as an important “hot spot” of benthic freshwater biodiversity in Southern South America. In Chilean temperate lakes, increased nutrient loads of P and N caused eutrophication, particularly in the Nahuelbutan Lakes. The freshwater Hyriidae mussel Diplodon chilensis (Gray, 1828) which is one of the most abundant species in Chilean temperate lakes, is known to be very susceptible to eutrophication. This species presents a clear reduction in its geographic ranges and is considered to be a threatened species in many Chilean lakes. In this study, we used a correlative approach to determine how eutrophication-driven changes in the food supply and in geographical parameters of different Chilean lakes affected the shell growth rates of D. chilensis. The results obtained from sclerochronological analyses of the mussel shells suggest an association with a group of environmental variables, including geographical types (negative), such as latitude and altitude, and limnological types (positive), especially phosphorous and turbidity. However, the D. chilensis populations under extreme conditions of turbidity in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes are extinct or nearly so. The high positive correlation of the mean D. chilensis growth rates with orthophosphate (R=0.76; P<0.05), in relation to dissolved inorganic nitrogen, suggests that P is the major limiting factor of the primary productivity in Chilean temperate lakes. We discuss some implications of our results in terms of the conservation of biodiversity in temperate lake ecosystems at different taxonomic levels.     

Impact of lateral flow and spatial scaling on the simulation of semi‐arid urban land surfaces in an integrated hydrologic and land surface model

Understanding and representing hydrologic fluxes in the urban environment is challenging because of fine scale land cover heterogeneity and lack of coherent scaling relationships. Here, the impact of urban land cover heterogeneity, scale, and configuration on the hydrologic and surface energy budget (SEB) is assessed using an integrated, coupled land surface/hydrologic model at high spatial resolutions. Archetypes of urban land cover are simulated at varying resolutions using both the National Land Cover Database (NLCD; 30 m) and an ultra high‐resolution land cover dataset (0.6 m). The analysis shows that the impact of highly organized, yet heterogeneous, land cover typical of the urban domain can cause large variations in hydrologic and energy fluxes within areas of similar land cover. The lateral flow processes that occur within each simulation create variations in overland flow of up to ±200% and ±4% in evapotranspiration. The impact on the SEB is smaller and largely restricted to the wet season for our semi‐arid forcing scenarios. Finally, we find that this seasonal bias, predominantly caused by lateral flow, is displaced by a systematic diurnal bias at coarser resolutions caused by deficiencies in the method used for scaling of land surface and hydrologic parameters. As a result of this research, we have produced land surface parameters for the widely used NLCD urban land cover types. This work illustrates the impact of processes that remain unrepresented in traditional high‐resolutions land surface models and how they may affect results and uncertainty in modeling of local water resources and climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating ecological damages into the user charge for land reclamation: a case study of Xiamen, China

Land reclamation has become one of the great concerns of many coastal states for its serious environmental and ecological effects. User charge is an effective market-based approach for regulating land reclamation. The user change should be designed to reflect the full effect of converting sea to land to ensure sustainable use of marine resources. In this paper, we present an ecological-economic framework to estimate the user charge that covers both the ecological damages and the rent associated with the reclaimed land. We apply the framework to Xiamen’s West Sea. Results of the case study suggest that the rents of reclaimed land for industrial and commercial uses are 49 yuan/m² and 1,066–2,704 yuan/m², respectively. The unit value of ecological damages of land reclamation is 605 yuan/m². The present user charge is too low to regulate excessive land reclamation. The user charge for land reclamation in the study area should be modified to 653 yuan/m² for industrial uses and 35–40% of adjacent land prices for commercial uses.     

Structure of the Nemrut caldera (Eastern Anatolia, Turkey) and associated hydrothermal fluid circulation

Plio-Quaternary volcanism played an important role in the present physical state of Eastern Anatolia. Mount Nemrut, situated to the west of Lake Van is one of the main volcanic centers in the region, with a spectacular summit caldera 8.5 × 7 km in diameter. The most recent eruptions of the volcano were in 1441, 1597 and 1692. Nemrut Lake covers the western half of the caldera; it is a deep, half-bowl-shaped lake with a maximum depth of 176 m. Numerous eruption centers are exposed within the caldera as a consequence of magma–water interaction. Current activity of Nemrut caldera is revealed as hot springs, fumaroles and a small, hot lake.Self-potential and bathymetric surveys carried out in the caldera were used to characterize the structure of the caldera and the associated hydrothermal fluid circulation. In addition, analyses based on digital elevation models and satellite imagery were used to improve our knowledge about the structure of the caldera. According to SP results, the flanks of the volcano represent “the hydrogeologic zone”, whereas the intra-caldera region is an “active hydrothermal area” where the fluid circulation is controlled by structural discontinuities. There is also a northern fissure zone which exhibits hydrothermal signatures. Nemrut caldera collapsed piecemeal, with three main blocks. Stress controlling the collapse mechanism seems to be highly affected by the regional neotectonic regime. In addition to the historical activity, current hydrothermal and hydrogeologic conditions in the caldera, in which there is a large lake and shallow water table, increase the risk of the quiescent volcano.     

Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Laurentia crustal motion observed using TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry over land

A new method to estimate the vertical crustal motion from satellite altimetry over land was developed. The method was tested around Hudson Bay, where the observed vertical motion is largely caused by the incomplete glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) as a result of the Laurentide ice sheet deglaciation since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Decadal (1992–2003) TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data over land surfaces were used. The results presented here are improved compared to a previous study (Lee, H., Shum, C.K., Kuo, C.Y., Yi, Y., Braun, A., 2008. Application of TOPEX altimetry for solid Earth deformation studies. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 19, 37–46. doi:10.3319/TAO.2008.19.1-2.37(SA).) which estimated vertical motion only over relatively flat land surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <40 cm). In this study, we extended the concept of traditional 1-Hz (one-per-frame) radar altimeter ocean stackfiles to build 10-Hz (10-per-frame) land stackfiles over Hudson Bay land regions, and succeeded in obtaining vertical motion estimates over much rougher surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <2 m). 90-m C-band Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is used as a reference surface to select an optimal waveform retracker, to correct surface gradient errors, and to calculate land surface anomalies. Here, we developed an alternative retracker, called the modified threshold retracker, resulting in decadal vertical motion time series over a 1500 km by 1000 km region covering northern Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and the Great Lakes region which is at the margin of the former Laurentide ice sheet. The average of the estimated uncertainties for the vertical motion is 2.9 mm/year which is comparable to 2.1 mm/year of recent GPS solutions. The estimated vertical motion is compared with other geodetic observations from GPS, tide gauge/altimetry, GRACE, and several GIA models. The data agree best with the laterally varying 3D GIA model, RF3S20 (β = 0.4) whereas the combination of land altimetry solution with other measurements match best with the models RF3S20 (β = 0.0) or RF3S20 (β = 0.2) in terms of mean and standard deviation of the differences. It is anticipated that this innovative technique could potentially be used to provide additional constraints for GIA model improvement, and be applied to other geodynamics studies.