Assessing the sensitivity of Canada's ecosystems to climatic change

Global warming due to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ is expected to be amplified in middle and higher latitudes. Consequently, ecosystems in these latitudes will experience more pronounced climatic variations. This investigation attempts to assess the sensitivity of Canada's ecosystems to climatic change. Potential ecological impacts resulting from global warming are outlined. With this background, the effects of a doubled CO₂ climate are applied to a classification model derived from the current ecological setting. Results reveal not only major shifts in ecological boundaries but also changes in the character of these broadly distributed ecosystems.     

Estimated bioresource sensitivity to climatic change in Alberta,Canada

An index of dry-matter productivity is used to assess the sensitivity of bioresources in Alberta, western Canada, to changes in the thermal and precipitation regimes, particularly to climatic warming. Results suggest that warming would improve productivity in northern Alberta, but reduce it, because of the associated increased moisture stress, in the relatively warm, dry southeastern part of the province. Estimated productivity generally increased with precipitation regardless of location or temperature. Warming induced by CO₂ quadrupling would apparently give a net increase of about 18% in bioresource productivity for the province, and CO₂ doubling would lead to a 16% increase. However, the bioclimate would be changed much more than this might suggest. For CO₂ quadrupling, Alberta would acquire a thermal regime similar to that of present-day Nebraska, some 2,000 km to the southeast. Also, the increase in productivity of plants due to the effects of CO₂ on photosynthesis might be much larger than the climate-related effects. Climate impact assessment in Canada is made especially challenging by the shortness of the period of instrumental record, the relatively high degree of sensitivity to climatic change, and the sparseness of the station network, particularly in the most sensitive areas.     

Canadian vegetation sensitivity to projected climatic change at three organizational levels

The potential equilibrium response of Canadian vegetation under two doubled-CO₂ climatic scenarios was investigated at three levels in the vegetation mosaic using the rule-based, Canadian Climate-Vegetation Model (CCVM) and climatic response surfaces. The climatic parameters employed as model drivers (i.e., degree-days, minimum temperature, snowpack, actual evapotranspiration, and soil moisture deficit) have a more direct influence on the distribution of vegetation than those commonly used in equilibrium models. Under both scenarios, CCVM predicted reductions in the extent of the tundra and subarctic woodland formations, a northward shift and some expansion in the distributions of boreal and the temperate forest, and an expansion of the dry woodland and prairie formations that was especially pronounced under one of the scenarios. Results of the response surface analysis suggest the potential for significant changes in the probability of dominance for eight boreal tree species. A dissimilarity coefficient was used to identify forest-types under the future climatic scenarios that were analogous to boreal forest-types derived from cluster analysis of the current probabilities of species dominance. All of the current forest-types persisted under the doubled-CO₂ scenarios, but no-analog areas were also identified within which an empirically derived threshold of the distance coefficient was exceeded. Maps showing the highest level in the vegetation hierarchy where change was predicted suggest the relative impact of the response under the two climatic scenarios.     

The sensitivity of some high-latitude boreal forests to climatic parameters

A gap model of environmental processes and vegetation patterns in boreal forests was used to examine the sensitivity of permafrost and permafrostfree forests in interior Alaska to air temperature and precipitation changes. These analyses indicated that in the uplands of interior Alaska, the effect of climatic warming on the ecology of boreal forests may not be so much a direct response to increased air temperature as it may be a response to the increased potential evapotranspiration demands that will accompany climatic warmings. On poorlydrained north slopes with permafrost, the drier forest floor reduced the flux of heat into the soil profile. This was offset by increased fire severity, which by removing greater amounts of the forest floor increased the depth of soil thawing and converted the cold black spruce forests to warmer mixed hardwood-spruce forests. On well-drained south slopes, the increased potential water loss reduced available soil moisture, converting these mesic sites to dry aspen forests, or if too dry to steppe-like vegetation. Increases in precipitation offset the effects of increased potential evapotranspiration demands and mitigated these forest changes.     

Modelling geomorphic response to climatic change

This paper develops a three-step thaw model to assess the impact of predicted warming on an ice-rich polar desert landscape in the Canadian high Arctic. Air temperatures are established for two climate scenarios, showing mean annual increases of 4.9 and 6.5°C. This leads to a lengthening of the summer thaw season by up to 26 days and increased thaw depths of 12–70 cm, depending on the thermal properties of the soil. Subsidence of the ground surface is the primary landscape response to warming and is shown to be a function of the amount and type of ground ice in various cryostratigraphic units. In areas of pore ice and thin ice lenses with a low density of ice wedges, subsidence may be as much as 32 cm. In areas with a high density of ice wedges, subsidence will be slightly higher at 34 cm. Where massive ice is present, subsidence will be greater than 1 m. Landscape response to new climate conditions can take up to 15 years, and may be as long as 50 years in certain cases.     

The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change

The levels and areas of lakes, particularly closed lakes (those without outlet) are known to be sensitive indicators of changes in climate, and so in principle they can play a role in monitoring current and future climatic changes. In this paper we derive solutions to the water balance equation giving the response of the level and area of closed lakes to steps, spikes and sinusoidal variations in aridity, and show that such a lake acts approximately as a simple low pass filter having a characteristic equilibrium response timeτ _e. We also review the similar response of open lakes to changes in runoff. It is shown howτ _e depends on lake geomorphology and climate, and for a number of lakes we calculateτ _e values, ranging from 1.5 to 350 yr for closed lakes, and from 2.9 days to 2 yr for open lakes. We propose methods involving Fourier analysis for inverting closed lake level or area records to obtain plots of a simple aridity index C. It is shown that for all ≈ 200 of the world's large (? 100 km²) closed lakes, satellite remote sensing of lake levels and areas is currently sensitive enough to monitor variations in C (e.g. in average basin precipitation) of order 1% to 10% on the time-scale of years to decades.     

Sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic change

Although the range of cultivated species is relatively restricted, domestic plants and animals exhibit considerable resilience to stochastic shocks, and the study of their ecological adaptability and critical physiological and phenological requirements is a valuable first step in determining their possible response to climatic change. Methods of assessing agroclimatic suitability and their limitations are discussed, and suggestions are made for simulating the probable impact of shifts in the main climatic parameters on the productivity and spatial distribution of key crops and livestock. Some regions and crops are climatically more vulnerable than others: some regions (in particular North America) are strategically more critical to the stability of world food supplies, while in others resources for agricultural production are under more severe pressure.As well as attempts to forecast long-term climatic trends and their effects on agriculture, combating climatic variability merits high priority. This is an ever-present source of instability in production and could be enhanced in association with changing climate. Its magnitude differs widely among crops and geographical regions, but its impact from year to year is often greater than that predicted from climatic change even in extreme scenarios. The paper indicates a number of potentially desirable areas for action and suggests that several of these would be beneficial both as a buffer against short-term effects of variability and as a means of combating climatic change.     

气候突变的定义和检测方法

气候突变现象及其理论的研究是近代气候学一个新兴的研究领域.本文是气候突变研究评述的第一部分,着重讨论了突变,主要是气候突变的定义和气候突变信号的各种检测方法.把气候突变归纳为四类,即均值突变、变率突变、转折突变和翘翘板(seasaw)突变.并通过Mann-Kendall法的检测,发现在本世纪20年代经历了一次全球范围的气候突变.     

近50a贵州气候变化分析

利用贵州省15个代表站1951～2000年的温度、降水资料,通过计算气候趋势系数、30a滑动平均和29a滑动均方差,研究了贵州各季及年平均温度、降水的长期变化趋势及气候基本态的变化特征和气候变率的长期变化,并用蒙特卡洛显著性检验方法对温度、降水的长期变化进行统计检验.研究指出近50a来贵州除春季降水显著减少外,各季及年平均温度、降水变化均不明显,属于自然振动.     

Comment on modeling ecological response to climatic change

Researchers have developed many computer simulation models to project ecological responses to climatic change. Three general types of models are examined: transfer functions, stand models, and physiological models. Criteria for evaluation are, first, ability to represent observed and theoretical responses to climatic change i.e., geographical migration, individualistic responses, and disequilibrium or inertia, and second, ability to provide useful information on biological diversity and impacts on society. Because of their roots in ecological interactions at the species level, stand models best meet these criteria at present, but physiological models have greater potential, given unlimited computing power.     

Determinants of environmental action with regard to climatic change

The study of human dimensions of global climatic change is still in the initial stage of development. Several attempts have been undertaken to define sensible research strategies in the field but until now relatively little empirical work has been undertaken and there is a lack of sound theoretical arguments. The present paper presents a theory-based empirical study of determinants influencing the probability that somebody takes climate-relevant environmental action. Important methodological differences between current models of climate dynamics and models of human reality are discussed in order to build three models of climate-related environmental action. A model focussed on the information transfer from science to the public at large is compared with a model focussed on sociodemographic characteristics and with a model focussed on socio-cultural variables like interpersonal rules and social networks. The hypothesis that the latter model is strongly superior to the former ones is tested and confirmed. Some implications for interdisciplinary cooperation and for policy making are discussed.     

Rapid climatic change and the deep ocean

A simple transient two-dimensional (latitude-depth) upwelling-diffusion ocean model coupled with an energy balance climate model is used to determine the surface temperature response to changes in the deep water formation rate. The changes in surface temperature are large and rapid with a large magnification at high latitudes, suggesting that rapid climate changes during the Glacial-Holocene transition could have been the result of variations in the rate of deep water formation. If this is true, the mechanism is essentially transient in nature and cannot be predicted using steady state models.     

盘锦湿地芦苇物候特征及其对气候变化的响应

基于1987～1993年盘锦湿地芦苇(Phragmites communis)物候数据,分析了芦苇的萌动期、展叶期、开花期和枯黄期的物候特征,探讨了芦苇物候期与气候因子的关系,并利用2种积温模型模拟了芦苇的展叶期和开花期。结果表明:芦苇的展叶期和开花期具有相同的变化趋势,芦苇的枯黄期变化较小;3月和4月平均气温与芦苇展叶呈显著相关,年平均气温与芦苇展叶盛期和开花盛期呈显著相关,芦苇枯黄盛期与年降水量显著相关;积温模型可有效地预测芦苇的展叶期。     

The decline of Late Bronze Age civilization as a possible response to climatic change

The disintegration of Eastern Mediterranean civilization at the end of the late Bronze Age (late thirteenth and twelfth centuries B.C.) has traditionally been attributed to the irruption of new peoples into this area. However, the nearly contemporaneous decline of highly organized and powerful states in Greece, Anatolia, Egypt, and Mesopotamia warrants consideration of possible environmental causes likely to operate over sizable areas, especially since archaeological research has not succeeded in establishing the presence of newcomers at the onset of the Bronze Age disturbances.Climatic change is a particularly attractive candidate since temperature and precipitation variations persisting over relatively short times can adversely affect agricultural output. Carpenter (1966) argued that the Mycenaean decline and migrations in and from Greece in the late thirteenth century were caused by prolonged drought and not the incursion of less civilized Dorian tribes. Donley (1971) and Bryson et al. (1974) have presented evidence of a spatial drought pattern which occurred in January 1955 that might be invoked to support this thesis. Population movements in Anatolia at the same time, though not as well established, can be delimited to some degree by the distribution of Hitto-Luwian peoples in the late ninth century B.C. It is hypothesized here that a drought induced migration of Luwian peoples from Western Antolia occurred early in the twelfth century B.C., that it was associated in some fashion with the invasion of Egypt by the Sea Peoples in the reign of Ramesses III, and that the defeated remnants of these peoples settled along the Levantine coast and filtered into North Syria and the upper Euphrates valley.It has been suggested that past climatic patterns recur in the present epoch but with a possibly different frequency. To establish that a spatial drought analogue to the above hypothesized migration can occur, temperature and precipitation records from 35 Greek, Turkish, Cypriot, and Syrian weather stations for the period 1951–1976 were examined. The Palmer drought index, an empirical method of measuring drought severity, was computed for each of these stations for the period of record. Since wheat yields tend to be highly correlated with winter precipitation for the area in question, the drought indices for the winter months were subjected to an empirical eigenvector analysis. An eigenvector (drought pattern) consistent with the postulated population movements in Anatolia occurred within the modern climatological record and was found to have been the dominant pattern in January 1972. The potential problems of eigenvector analysis in investigating problems of this type are discussed.     

径流对气候变化的敏感性分析

全球变暖愈来愈引起社会各界的关注 ,本文利用月水文模型 ,采取假定气候方案 ,以黄河流域为例 ,分析了径流对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明 ,径流对降水变化的响应较气温变化显著 ;一般情况下 ,半干旱地区径流较半湿润地区对气候变化敏感 ,人类活动的影响可在一定程度上削弱径流对气候变化的敏感性     

贵州种植南亚热带作物的气候风险问题初探

对贵州热作发展的主要限制因子低温霜冻，春旱，暴雨洪涝灾害进行研究，分析了典型低温霜冻年的冻害情况和各级低温冻害的发生规律，用耿贝尔极值法对极端最低气温进行了重现期的计算和分析，并对热作区春旱，暴雨洪涝的气候风险问题进行了讨论。