气候变暖背景下中原腹地冬小麦气候适宜度变化

通过构建冬小麦光照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,探讨气候变化对冬小麦气候适宜性的影响。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候适宜度均值分别为0.54、0.64、0.37及0.50;冬小麦对光照适宜性较好,降水是限制冬小麦生长发育的主要因子;温度和降水适宜度以0.001·a^-1线性趋势下降,光照适宜度以0.002·a^-1线性趋势下降,气候因子匹配效果变差对冬小麦的生长不利。冬前生长阶段温度、光照和降水适宜性较弱,各气候因子匹配效果较差。出苗-拔节期降水适宜性较强,各气候因子组合效果较差;拔节-抽穗期和抽穗-乳熟期温度与光照适宜性较强,水分胁迫较大,气候因子组合效果趋好。乳熟-成熟期光照和降水适宜性较强,综合气候适宜性变差。光照、温度和降水适宜度在全生育期的中后期与冬小麦产量的相关性比较显著。     

闽东茶叶气候适宜度变化特征

茶是中国主要的经济作物之一,气候变化对茶叶生长具有重要的影响。采用福建省主要产茶区闽东9县市1981—2013年气候要素资料,应用模糊数学方法构建茶叶适宜度模型,分析茶叶气候适宜度年际、年代及季节变化特征,运用Arcgis地理信息软件对闽东茶叶气候适宜度年代空间变化分布进行区划分析。结果表明,闽东地区总体茶叶生长的气候条件好,适宜度高。但也存在一些制约因素,影响山区茶叶适宜条件的主要气候要素是积温,而沿海则是相对湿度和干燥度。受气候变化影响,闽东茶叶适宜度随年际波动明显,沿海茶叶适宜度年代变化幅度比山区大,波动更不稳定,其变差趋势也比山区更显著。季节性特征显示春、夏、秋3个季节适宜度也都随年代波动幅度增大而数值呈减小趋势,其中春茶适宜度变化小,而夏、秋茶变差趋势显著。针对气候变化对闽东茶叶适宜度的不利影响,建议可以通过基础设施建设,改善茶园小气候条件和加强防灾能力加以应对。     

辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估

为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响,以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据,利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型,以地理信息技术为依托,探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征,并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明:①辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大;然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。②春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为:出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高,日照适宜度次之,降水适宜度最低。③春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④春玉米气候年景准确率达64%,表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份(1971、1979、1993、1998年),较差的有1969年(4.98%)及1973年(5.59%)。     

沙漠生态旅游适宜度评价

生态旅游适宜度评价是旅游资源开发的前提,特别在沙漠旅游领域更应如此。本研究基于对沙漠旅游的影响因素——沙漠旅游资源、生态环境承载力的分析,构建了沙漠生态旅游适宜度评价指标体系,从而提出了一套沙漠生态旅游适宜度评价方法,并对中国8个典型沙漠旅游景区生态旅游适宜度进行评价。结果表明：沙漠旅游景区的生态旅游适宜度都比较低,大部分属于中适宜、低适宜2个水平。最后讨论了沙漠生态旅游适宜度的评价方法及沙漠旅游资源生态保护。     

香格里拉旅游气候的适宜度

利用云南省农业气候资料,采用了旅游舒适度指标,对香格里拉腹地中甸县的旅游气候进行分析,认为该地夏季最适于开展旅游活动,春季和秋季为次适于开展旅游活动,并提出发展旅游业应注意的气候问题     

淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析

淮河流域40个县(市)区水稻日照适宜度、降水适宜度与气候适宜度均呈下降趋势。分析淮河流域水稻温度、降水、日照和气候适宜度的区域差异,将淮河流域分为最适宜区、适宜性区、次适宜区。综合降水、日照、温度三因素,将淮河流域水稻气候适宜度分为分成淮北最适宜区、淮南最适宜区、淮河沿岸适宜区和西部山地次适宜区,分析各区水稻适宜度年际变化规律,结果表明:各区的水稻气候适宜度均呈逐渐下降趋势。     

基于GIS的衡阳人居适宜度评价

参考当前人居环境评价方法和指标体系,结合生态位适宜度的基本原理与方法,从经济、社会、环境生态位三类独立指标出发,选取25项反映现实生态位与最适宜生态位之间耦合度的单项指标,构建了一种新的多指标城市人居环境质量定量评价的生态位适宜度模型.以湖南省衡阳市主城区为例,运用GIs技术和superMan Deskpro软件进行了...     

湘西北侵蚀小流域生态恢复适宜度与景观格局特征

开展生态恢复区景观空间格局特征分析,对于山丘土壤侵蚀区的治理具有重要意义.以湘西北女儿寨小流域为例,运用景观生态学原理及空间格局分析方法,对流域生态恢复适宜度与景观格局特征进行了研究.结果表明:生态恢复对女儿寨流域土地利用结构有较大改善,土壤侵蚀量有效减少;林地面积最大,斑块数最多,流域以林地景观为基质;斑块形状较简单,斑块间相似性较强,景观面积有效性较小;流域景观多样性较高,但均匀程度较低,偏离度较大;整体景观的破碎度不高,但居民点的破碎化程度极大,不利于流域景观系统的稳定性.研究结论可为流域治理与生态恢复、土地利用结构调整、景观优化利用提供科学依据和参考.     

宁夏沙漠旅游适宜度评价

从资源禀赋、区域气候、旅游地可进入性和旅游地空间竞争4个方面共13个指标对宁夏沙漠旅游开发进行适宜度分析。结果表明：宁夏沙漠拥有丰富的形态及良好的相对稳定性,观赏性强;适宜开展沙漠旅游活动的季节为夏季和秋初,适宜期要长于新疆、甘肃等省（区）,但夏季正午时段旅游适宜度低;影响毛乌素沙地及宁北沙地旅游开发的制约性因素为沙尘暴和大风;宁夏沙漠旅游项目重复建设比较明显,空间竞争问题较为突出;适宜度综合得分为4.524,属很适宜等级。应融入文化、生态内涵,提高景区可进入性,加强区域协作。     

辽宁主要城市旅游气候适宜度评价

舒适度指数和风效指数是衡量旅游地气候是否适宜进行旅游活动的主要指标。辽宁旅游业快速发展,旅游经济收益在辽宁省经济体系中的比重由2007年的11.9%增加到2009年的14.9%,且还将继续增加。辽宁旅游业发展主要依托14个主要城市,受气候影响,辽宁旅游活动主要集中在夏季。为了更准确明确辽宁主要城市适宜旅游月份,以舒适度指数和风效指数为评价指标对辽宁省14个主要城市的气候旅游条件进行评价。结果显示:辽宁14个主要城市适合旅游的时期都集中在5、6、7、8、9、10六个月;14个城市中有3个城市没有明显的最佳旅游期,6个城市有一个月的最佳旅游期,5个城市有两个月的最佳旅游期。     

初探绿色GDP核算方法及实证分析 --以山西省大同市为例

传统GDP未将资源、环境要素纳入国民经济核算体系,不能准确地表现经济发展与资源、环境之间的相互关系。因此用传统GDP衡量一个国家经济发展程度,存在明显不足。绿色GDP是指国家或地区在扣除自然资源及环境污染损耗后新创造的真实国民财富的总量,它能较准确地反映一个国家或地区国民收入水平的状况。文章依据狭义绿色GDP涵义,以山西省大同市为例,结合当地生态资源环境现状,构建资源环境账户虚数指标体系,探讨了绿色GDP的核算方法,并估算了该市2002年的绿色GDP。结果表明：2002年大同市的自然资源损耗为63.86亿元,占GDP的29.29%;环境污染损耗22.18亿元,占GDP的10.18%;绿色GDP为131.33亿元,仅占当年GDP的60.24%,说明该地区经济发展中资源与环境问题十分突出,亟待解决。建议科学、适度、合理地开发利用各类资源,树立市场经济的资源价值观;严格控制污染物排放,加强环境保护治理。     

北京宜居城市满意度空间特征

利用近万份的实地调查问卷,采用空间插值、空间相关性分析等空间分析方法,研究了北京市区宜居城市满意度的总体特征和空间自相关特性。结果表明,北京市区宜居城市满意度总体水平尚可,存在明显的空间自相关特性,并且空间自相关性表现出较强的尺度变化特点,而反映满意度的不同子指标的尺度也各有特点。对宜居城市满意度的空间差异性研究表明,满意度总体由城市中心向郊区递减,在交通节点附近存在满意度的"洼地"区域,同时,一些特殊区域的存在,也使北京宜居城市满意度的空间分布更加复杂。     

吉林省德惠市土壤特性空间变异特征与格局

Based on regionalized variable theory, semivariograms of geo-statistics were used to research the spatial variation of soil properties quantitatively. The results showed that the semivariogram of soil organic matter is best described by spherical model, the best model for semivariograms of soil total N and available K is exponential models and that of available P belongs to linear with sill model. Those soil properties have different spatial correlations respectively, the lag of organic matter is the highest and that of available P is the lowest, the spatial correlation of N and available K belongs to moderate degree. Spatial heterogeneities are different too, the degree of organic matter and total N are higher, the degree of available K is in the next place and that of available P is the lowest. Influenced by the shape, topography and soil of the study area, all isotropies of available P are obvious in all directions while anisotropies of others are manifested. According to the analytical results, supported by GIS, Kriging and IDW methods are applied to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of soil properties. The results indicate that soil organic matter, total N and available K are distributed regularly from northeast to southwest, while available P is distributed randomly.     

Spatial variability and pattern analysis of soil properties in Dehui city, Jilin province

1IntroductionSoil nutrient, as the synthetic results under the influence of various anthropogenic activities and the factors such as climate and topography, etc., possesses certain spatial distribution characteristics, and certain structural and stochastic characteristics. The study of the differences existing in different parts of the region lays the foundation for adjusting all management measures and all material input capacities and for gaining the maximal economic benefit. Presently, the …     

Spatial variability and pattern analysis of soil properties in Dehui city, Jilin province

Based on regionalized variable theory, semivariograms of geo-statistics were used to research the spatial variation of soil properties quantitatively. The results showed that the semivariogram of soil organic matter is best described by spherical model, the best model for semivariograms of soil total N and available K is exponential models and that of available P belongs to linear with sill model. Those soil properties have different spatial correlations respectively, the lag of organic matter is the highest and that of available P is the lowest, the spatial correlation of N and available K belongs to moderate degree. Spatial heterogeneities are different too, the degree of organic matter and total N are higher, the degree of available K is in the next place and that of available P is the lowest. Influenced by the shape, topography and soil of the study area, all isotropies of available P are obvious in all directions while anisotropies of others are manifested. According to the analytical results, supported by GIS, Kriging and IDW methods are applied to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of soil properties. The results indicate that soil organic matter, total N and available K are distributed regularly from northeast to southwest, while available P is distributed randomly.     

阿克苏市城市化与生态环境综合水平协调度评析

以新疆阿克苏市为研究区域,利用1997～2008年的调查资料和统计数据,构建了城市化与生态环境协调发展的综合指标体系.在对城市化综合水平与生态环境综合质量进行测度的基础上,运用层次分析法计算了城市化与生态环境协调度.结果显示:1997年以来,阿克苏市城市化综合水平逐步提高,而生态环境综合质量呈现出波动性的变化特征,即1...     

Marginal revenue of land and total factor productivity in Chinese agriculture: Evidence from spatial analysis

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

旅游供给的二维组合态势与创新开发模式--我国西部12省(区)案例

以省（区）为单元进行西部旅游资源丰度与区位度组合研究.以2002年和2003年西部12省（区）A级以上景区（点）为样本,计算旅游供给丰度与区位度及其排序.结合聚类与位序分析,发现其呈现出两种类型：低区位、低丰度类型和高区位、高丰度类型.基于二维组合,给出对应的旅游创新开发模式与转化策略.得出如下结论：1）通过对旅游资源丰度和区位的定量分析,可理性地提出准确的开发思路;2）西部旅游资源创新开发必须进行旅游生产力布局与建设.     

省域旅游发展的错位现象及旅游资源相对效率评价——以大陆31省市区2000-2009年面板数据为例

以大陆31个省级区域2000-2009年的面板数据为例,运用熵值法对各地区旅游资源禀赋状况进行评价,进一步构建错位指数,对各地区旅游业发展的＂错位（诅咒）＂现象进行定量分析,同时结合旅游资源相对效率,对各地区旅游资源开发提出相应的建议。研究表明总体上大陆旅游资源存在着一定程度的负向错位现象,正向错位的地区主要位于东部地区,且集中分布在长三角、珠三角、京津地区;发生负向错位现象的地区主要位于广大中西部地区。不同区域效率的驱动模式各不相同,东部地区旅游资源总效率主要受纯技术效率驱动,西部地区旅游资源总效率主要受规模效率驱动。效率排名与错位指数排名表现出很强的正相关性,结合两者的关系为未来省域旅游资源开发利用提供相应的建议。