一种四维同化方法的试验研究

文章利用一个有限区模式对一种资料四维同化过程作了试验研究，以考察四维资料同化对模式的预报过程的作用。试验结果表明:四维资料同化可以为模式提供一组四维动力协调的积分初值。对由于资料或模式原因造成的积分开始时的高频振荡有很好的抑制作用，使模式的积分稳定性增强。      

Impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite meteorological observations on the numerical simulation of a Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone of November 2008 near Tamilnadu using WRF model

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction of a severe cyclonic storm that formed in the Bay of Bengal during November 2008 with the four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) model was used to study the structure, evolution, and intensification of the storm. Five sets of numerical simulations were performed using the WRF. In the first one, called Control run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the remaining experiments available observations were used to obtain an improved analysis and FDDA grid nudging was performed for a pre-forecast period of 24 h. The second simulation (FDDAALL) was performed with all the data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds, conventional surface, and upper air meteorological observations. QSCAT wind alone was used in the third simulation (FDDAQSCAT), the SSM/I wind alone in the fourth (FDDASSMI) and the conventional observations alone in the fifth (FDDAAWS). The FDDAALL with assimilation of all observations, produced sea level pressure pattern closely agreeing with the analysis. Examination of various parameters indicated that the Control run over predicted the intensity of the storm with large error in its track and landfall position. The assimilation experiment with QSCAT winds performed marginally better than the one with SSM/I winds due to better representation of surface wind vectors. The FDDAALL outperformed all the simulations for the intensity, movement, and rainfall associated with the storm. Results suggest that the combination of land-based surface, upper air observations along with satellite winds for assimilation produced better prediction than the assimilation with individual data sets.     

Assessment of Data Assimilation Approaches for the Simulation of a Monsoon Depression Over the Indian Monsoon Region

A low pressure system that formed on 21 September 2006 over eastern India/Bay of Bengal intensified into a monsoon depression resulting in copious rainfall over north-eastern and central parts of India. Four numerical experiments are performed to examine the performance of assimilation schemes in simulating this monsoon depression using the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Forecasts from a base simulation (with no data assimilation), a four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) system, a simple surface data assimilation (SDA) system coupled with FDDA, and a flux-adjusting SDA system (FASDAS) coupled with FDDA are compared with each other and with observations. The model is initialized with Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast fields starting from 19 September 2006, with assimilation being done for the first 24 hours using conventional observations, sounding and surface data of temperature and moisture from Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder satellite and surface wind data over the ocean from QuikSCAT. Forecasts are then made from these assimilated states. In general, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast provides more realistic prognostic fields as compared to the other three forecasts. When compared with other forecasts, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast yielded lower root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors for the pressure field and improved simulations of surface/near-surface temperature, moisture, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and potential vorticity. Heat and moisture budget analyses to assess the simulation of convection revealed that the two forecasts with the surface data assimilation (SDA and FASDAS) are superior to the base and FDDA forecasts. An important conclusion is that, even though monsoon depressions are large synoptic systems, mesoscale features including rainfall are affected by surface processes. Enhanced representation of land-surface processes provides a significant improvement in the model performance even under active monsoon conditions where the synoptic forcings are expected to be dominant.     

HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON LONGWANG (2005) WITH THE SPECTRUM NUDGING TECHNIQUE

With the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFV3.2.1), the application of spectrum nudging techniques in numerical simulation of the genesis and development of typhoon Longwang (2005) is evaluated in this work via four numerical experiments with different nudging techniques. It is found that, due to the ability to capture the large-scale fields and to keep the meso-to small-scale features derived from the model dynamics, the experiment with spectrum nudging technique can simulate the formation, intensification and motion of Longwang properly. The improvement on the numerical simulation of Longwang induced by the spectrum nudging depends on the nudging coefficients. A weak spectrum nudging does not make significant improvement on the simulation of Longwang. Although the experiment with four-dimensional data assimilation, i.e., FDDA, also derives the genesis and movement of Longwang appropriately, it fails to simulate the intensifying process of Longwang properly. The reason is that, as the large-scale features derived from the model are nudged to the observational data, the meso- to small-processes produced by the model dynamics important to the intensification of typhoon are nearly smoothed by FDDA.     

Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interaction leading to rainfall over the South China Sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal monsoon westerly wind bursts

The morning diurnal precipitation maximum over the coastal sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal westerly wind bursts is examined from observations and numerical model simulations. A well-defined case of precipitation and large-scale circulation over the coastal sea west of the Philippines during 17?C27 June 2004 is selected as a representative case. The hypothesis is that the mesoscale diurnal circulation over the Philippines and a large-scale diurnal circulation that is induced by large-scale differential heating over Asian continent and the surrounding ocean interact to produce the offshore precipitation maximum during the morning. Three-hourly combined satellite microwave and infrared rainfall retrievals define the morning rainfall peak during this period, and then later the stratiform rain area extends toward the open sea. A control numerical simulation in which a grid-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is applied to force the large-scale diurnal circulation represents reasonably well the morning rainfall maximum. An enhanced low-level convergence similar to observations is simulated due to the interaction of the local- and large-scale diurnal circulations. The essential role of the local-scale diurnal circulation is illustrated in a sensitivity test in which the solar zenith angle is fixed at 7?am to suppress this diurnal circulation. The implication for climate diagnosis or modeling of such upstream coastal sea precipitation maxima is that the diurnal variations of both the local- and the large-scale circulations must be taken into consideration.     

复杂下垫面地域边界层结构的三维细网格数值模拟

建立了一个可供复杂下垫面地域使用的非静力的三维细网格边界层模式，就复杂下垫面条件下的边界层结构和湍流特征作了以实例为对照的数值模拟试验，模式采用能量闭合方案，舍弃了静力近似。以实测资料为初台输入，同时还做了一些数值试验，分别获得了采用静力与非静力模式和不同闭合方案对ＰＢＬ模型的结果。     

MM5模式移植及业务应用系统

MM5模式是国际上应用比较广泛的一种中尺度气象模式，因为它采用了非静力平衡动力框架、可选择的多种物理过程以及四维同化(FDDA)等先进技术，在气象科研和业务预报领域取得了广泛的应用。由于技术的原因，MM5模式一直运行在UNIX系统之下，直接在Windows系统下运行的个例还不多。作者尝试将MM5模式由UNIX系统移植到Windows系统并据此建立了微机业务应用系统。详细介绍了模式在移植过程中所要注意的几个问题、微机业务技术系统的结构及预报方案。     

The Development of a Nonhydrostatic Global Spectral Model

With the development of numerical weather prediction technology,the traditional global hydrostatic models used in many countries of the world for operational weather forecasting and numerical simulations of general circulation have become more and more unfit for high-impact weather prediction.To address this,it is important to invest in the development of global nonhydrostatic models.Few existing nonhydrostatic global models use consistently the grid finite difference scheme for the primitive equations of dynamical cores,which can subsequently degrade the accuracy of the calculations.A new nonhydrostatic global spectral model,which utilizes the Eulerian spectral method,is developed here from NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 3.0(CAM3.0).Using Janjic's hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic method,a global nonhydrostatic spectral method for the primitive equations has been formulated and developed.In order to retain the integrity of the nonhydrostatic equations,the atmospheric curvature correction and eccentricity correction are considered. In this paper,the Held-Suarez idealized test and an idealized baroclinic wave test are first carried out,which shows that the nonhydrostatic global spectral model has similar climate states to the results of many other global models for long-term idealized integration,as well as better simulation ability for short-term idealized integration.Then,a real case experiment is conducted using the new dynamical core with the full physical parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes.The 10-day numerical integration indicates a decrease in systematic error and a better simulation of zonal wind,temperature,and 500-hPa height.     

On the wind field in the Loisach valley — Numerical simulation and comparison with the LOWEX III data

Summary A three-dimensional nonhydrostatic model, forced by a surface energy budget, has been used to study thermally induced circulation in mountainous terrain. The numerical results were compared with observed wind data of the LOWEX-Experiment realized in the Loisach valley near Garmisch. Although the qualitative agreement in space and time is reasonable, the model underpredicts especially the valley wind by a factor of two. The complex structure of the simulated airflow in this region illustrates the difficulties of field experiments to find out the main characteristics of such circulations. In two sensitivity studies, the effect of the size of the integration region and the effect of a slight variation in direction of the larger scale wind is discussed.With 18 Figures     

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments of a Heavy Rain Process with PENN STATE / NCAR MM5

PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully     

Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta. It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001     

A nonhydrostatic model for simulation of airflow over mesoscale bell-shaped ridges

This paper describes a nonhydrostatic and incompressible mesoscale model formulation using a terrain-following coordinate system. A tensor transformation procedure is used to derive a diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic pressure field. The model features a simplified second-order turbulence closure scheme. The two-dimensional version of the nonhydrostatic model, as well as the corresponding hydrostatic model, are applied to simulate stably stratified airflow over mesoscale bell-shaped mountain ridges. The results show that the nonhydrostatic model is capable of simulating nonhydrostatic dynamics of mesoscale lee wave systems such as the trapped wave phenomenon.     

深凹露天矿内复环流和高湍能区的三维细网格非静力模拟

建立了一个准定常的三维非静力能量闭合的PBL模式模拟了深凹露天矿内复环流和高湍能区。针对露天矿具有范围小、地形复杂的特点,放弃了静力近似的假定,且采用了在复杂地形下应用较好的能量闭合方案,采用细网格系统对一个水平只有2 km×2 km的实际矿区进行了模拟,并将结果与同样条件下的风洞试验结果进行了比较。结果表明,矿坑的开口宽度与深度比和来流的性质对坑内气流和湍流情况有了较大影响。     

重力流冷锋及其受地形的影响

建立了一个二维非静力平衡模式，通过坐标变换的方法使得模式低层有较高的分辨率。对重力流的模拟结果显示；本模式模拟出的重力流冷锋主要特征，如抬高的头部、头部较强的上升运动以及等位温线密集带与实际大气观测很一致。此外，模式还成功地模拟出了重力流头部后面底层的高速潜流层。应用模拟结果与理论结果对重力流的移动速度进行了对比分析。当考虑地形时，重力流在山前受阻，其头部比不考虑地形时高，且产生了向上游传播的“涌浪”；重力流过山后其头部降低，位温梯度减弱，头部后面的水平速度减小。此外，还对非静力平衡与静力平衡条件下重力流的差异进行了分析讨论。     

On the applicability of numerical mass-consistent wind field models

A three-dimensional nonhydrostatic model is used to calculate the complex wind field in a coastal and a hilly region. These results are used to test the applicability of a mass-consistent wind model for different numbers of input wind data. While for the coastal area the mass consistent model calculates reasonable results even for a small number of input wind data, this number increases significantly in complex terrain.     

Analytic solutions to long's model: A comparison of nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic cases

Summary In this paper, analytic solutions of the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic forms of Long's model were obtained under two different sets of vertical boundary conditions: The first uses a sumusoidal obstacle at the lower boundary and a rigid-lid top for the upper boundary. The second set applies an isolated obstacle of the Witch of Agnesi type at the lower boundary, while still using a rigid lid at the top. Following the solution evaluations, comparisons between the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic solutions were processed in order to describe several influences introduced by using the hydrostatic assumption in this model.Through comparisons we have found that, in the case of a sinusoidal lower boundary condition, the hydrostatic solution is obtained as the zero mode of the nonhydrostatic solution. The influence of the hydrostatic assumption on the model solution is trivial in this case. When an isolated lower boundary condition is applied, however, the solutions illustrate dramatic differences, showing the significance of the effect of hydrostatic assumption on this model's solutions. These effects vary considerably with the model parameters as well. The comparison results also reveal that the realization of the hydrostatic assumption in this model's solutions is accomplished through the vertical boundary conditions used in the model evaluations.With 5 Figures     

重庆市"5·29"暴雨天气过程诊断分析与数值模拟

在天气分析的基础上,利用非静力中尺度数值预报模式MM5和双向二重嵌套网格技术,对2004年5月29~30日重庆市暴雨天气过程进行数值模拟。诊断分析表明,高空低槽产生的冷锋云系发展东移是产生此次暴雨天气过程的主要大尺度天气系统,由高空槽诱发产生的中尺度涡旋是产生此次暴雨天气的主要中尺度系统。模拟结果与观测结果的对比显示表明,MM5中尺度数值预报模式能够成功模拟四川盆地东部的暴雨天气过程,同时揭示了高空槽东移过程中在重庆地区范围内产生的较强中尺度气旋性辐合和强烈上升运动促使了暴雨的产生。     

Quasi-stationary organized convection in the presence of an inversion near the surface: Experiments with a 2-D numerical model

Summary Quasi-steady states of organized convection are studied in a two-dimensional nonhydrostatic primitive-equation numerical model. Uni-and multi-cellular patterns are identified in the presence of a low-level inversion, and discussed in relation to those obtained, by various authors, in the more traditional monotonic-sounding case. The stable layer near the ground is shown to be responsible for a configuration of flow normally not observed in cases of monotonic sounding and reminiscent of an orographically generated wave. Exploring the conditions conducive to quasi-steady convection it is found that in the presence of a low-level inversion, a strong shear of the wind component perpendicular to the squall line is required near the surface, deeper than that required in the absence of the inversion.With 10 Figures     

BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用

利用PSU／NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。     

Experiments on the radar reflectivity data assimilation in the WRF-ARW model

Given are the results of numerical experiments on the radar reflectivity data assimilation in the nonhydrostatic WRF-ARW model. For this purpose, the procedure of three-dimensional variational data assimilation was used included as a separate block (WRF-3DVAR) in the WRF-ARW system. The experiments on the cyclic assimilation of radar information were carried out for ten days of summer of 2009. The data of six AKSOPRI complexes forming the Moscow ring of radar measurements were assimilated. The contribution of the radar reflectivity data assimilation to the quality of short-range precipitation forecasts was verified on the basis of the momentary and accumulated radar precipitation and total precipitation at the stations. It is obtained that the contribution of the radar reflectivity assimilation using the WRF-ARW algorithm to the precipitation forecast is close to neutral: the number of accurate forecasts increases by about 10%; however, the number of false alarms increases as well.