Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO₂ atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO₂ climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region.     

Water Availability,Degree Days,and the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in California

We use the geo-referenced June Agricultural Survey of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to match values of individual farms in California with a measure of water availability as mediated through irrigation districts, and degree days, a nonlinear transformation of temperature, controlling for other influences on value such as soil quality, to examine the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California. Water availability strongly capitalizes into farmland values. The predicted decrease in water availability in the latest climate change scenarios downscaled to California can therefore be expected to have a significant negative impact on the value of farmland.     

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Water Resource Management in the Great Lakes

Water managers always have had to cope with climate variability. All water management practices are, to some extent, a response to natural hydrologic variability. Climate change poses a different kind of problem. Adaptation to climate change in water resource management will involve using the kinds of practices and activities currently being used. However, it remains unclear whether or not practices and activities designed with historical climate variability will be able to cope with future variability caused by atmospheric warming. This paper examines the question of adaptation to climate change in the context of Canadian water resources management, emphasizing issues in the context of the Great Lakes, an important binational water resource.     

Climate Change and Water Resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.     

茂名市气候变化及其对农业的影响

利用茂名1971~2004年的气候资料,分析了其降水、气温的年、季变化特征,探讨了气候变化对极端天气气候事件、农业生产以及农业生态环境的影响。近30多年来,茂名的年降水以年际波动为主,线性变化趋势不明显,不同季节的降水量变化有升有降,可能是其原因所在。年气温在波动中上升的趋势十分明显,年气温每年上升0.03℃,春、夏、秋、冬季气温的普遍上升,导致了全年气温的明显上升。气候变化导致了台风连续登陆茂名,高温天气连连刷新纪录等极端天气气候事件频繁出现,严重影响茂名水果生产及农业生态环境。     

Climate Change and Water Resources in Britain

This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality – as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents – will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water quality management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options.     

黄河上游水源补给区气候变化及对水资源的影响

应用黄河上游重要水源补给区玛曲县气温、降水资料分析得出:气温年际变化呈上升趋势,降水量年际变化呈下降趋势。气候变化导致可能蒸发量增加,可利用水资源量减少。水资源量多项式拟合变化趋势呈2谷1峰波动型,枯水期年际变化的时间尺度成倍延长。     

Ecosystem Evaluation, Climate Change and Water Resources Planning

This paper considers ecosystem evaluation under conditions of climate change in the context both of the U.S. Water Resources Council's Principles and Guidelines (P&G) and the more general Federal regulations governing environmental evaluation. Federal water agencies have responsibilities for protecting aquatic ecosystems through their regulatory programs and operations and planning missions. The primary concern of water resources and aquatic ecosystems planning in the United States is on the riparian or floodplain corridors of river systems. In the context of climate change, planning for these systems focusses on adaptation options both for current climate variability and for that engendered by potential climate change.Ecosystems appear to be highly vulnerable to climate change, as described in IPCC reports. Aquatic ecosystems are likely to be doubly affected, first by thermally induced changes of global warming and second by changes in the hydrologic regime. Perhaps as much as any of the issues dealt with in this issue, the evaluation of ecosystems is linked to fundamental questions of criteria as well as to the details of the Federal environmental planning system. That system is a densely woven, interlocking system of environmental protection legislation, criteria and regulations that includes a self-contained evaluation system driven by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) procedural guidelines (United States Council on Environmental Quality, 1978) and Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) requirements. The Corps of Engineers must use both the P&G and the NEPA/EIS system in discharging its responsibilities.If U.S. Federal agencies are to take the lead in formulating and evaluating adaptation options, there needs to be a reexamination of existing evaluation approaches. Among the elements of the P&G that may require rethinking in view of the prospects of global climate change are those relating to risk and uncertainty, nonstationarity, interest rates, and multiple objectives. Within the government planning process, efforts must be made to resolve inconsistencies and constraints in order to permit the optimal evaluation of water-based ecosystems under global climate change. The interrelationships of the two systems are described in this paper, and alternative ways of viewing the planning process are discussed. Strategic planning and management at the watershed level provides an effective approach to many of the issues. Current NEPA/EIS impact analysis does not provide a suitable framework for environmental impact analysis under climate uncertainty, and site-specific water resources evaluation relating to climate change appears difficult at current levels of knowledge about climate change. The IPCC Technical Guidelines, however, provide a useful beginning for assessing the impacts of future climate states.     

气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价

将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明,2000年气候条件下,我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%,极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险,不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大,极端脆弱区域将达到20%～25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加,中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化,而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。     

Urban Water Management vs. Climate Change: Impacts on Cold Region Waste Water Inflows

Failure to account for non-climatic changes to water systems, such as design and operation, within climate change impact assessments leads to misconceptions because these activities buffer the human built enviroment from bio-physical impacts. Urban drainage in cold regions, which is dominated by snowmelt, is especially vulnerable to climate change and is investigated in this paper within the context of future rehabilitation of the sewer network. The objectives are to illustrate the relative response of urban drainage to changes in both the pipe network and climate and demonstrate the use of response surfaces for climate change studies. An incremental climate scenario approach is used to generate two sensitivity analyses for waste water inflows to the Lycksele waste water treatment plant in north-central Sweden. Air temperature and precipitation data (1984–1993) are altered incrementally between –5 and +15 °C and –10 and +40% respectively. These data are then used to drive a hydrological transformation model to obtain estimates of sewer infiltration from groundwater. The results are presented as winter and spring response surfaces – these are graphical representations of a response matrix where each point relates to a single model run. Climate scenario envelopes which summarise a series of GCM runs (ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.) are overlaid to indicate the range of plausible waste water inflows. Estimates of natural multi-decadal variability are also included. The first sensitivity analysis assumes no change to the drainage system while the second simulates sewer renovation in which the system is fully separated and sewer infiltration is reduced. The main conclusions are that innovations in drainage network technology have a greater potential to alter waste water inflows than climate change and that, while the direction of climate change is fairly certain, there is great uncertainty surrounding magnitude of those changes and their impacts.     

Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 ^∘C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.     

近10 a来祁连山地区气候及水资源研究现状

回顾了近10 a来对祁连山气候及其相关研究的主要成果,发现以前研究主要集中在气候变化及水资源方面。气候变化研究主要是古气候及近代气候的年际变化;水资源研究,则在陆地水资源方面的成果最多。近几年空中水资源开发利用的研究逐渐受到重视,成果日益增多,这将为西北干旱半干旱区解决水资源紧缺的状况提供一条可能的途径。     

Learning with Local Help: Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada

The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

三江源区植被变化及其对气候变化的响应

利用卫星反演获取的归一化植被指数（NDVI）以及同期气象要素资料,分析了1982-2000年三江源区植被的时间和空间变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：在三江源的大部分地区,植被生长状况趋于变差或基本不变;20世纪90年代,除夏季外,其他季节植被状况趋于恶化;与降水量相比,植被长势对气温变化的响应更为敏感。     

Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture

This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.     

径流对区域气候变化的响应研究

利用汾河流域静乐站1970-2004年的气温、降水及径流资料,建立多元非线性回归模型,分析径流变化对区域气候变化的响应,结果表明,径流对降水的响应比气温敏感,且径流变化是气候因子和流域下垫面条件共同作用的结果.     

气候变化和水的最新科学认知

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了气候变化和水技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上,客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起;气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加,而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果;预计到21世纪中期,河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加,而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少;许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升;预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少;预计较高的水温和极端变化,包括洪旱等,将影响水质并加剧水污染;对全球而言,气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益;预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用;气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行,包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统,同时影响到水的管理;目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响;气候变化挑战过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况的传统说法;为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择,必须综合需水和供水双方的战略;减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度,进而减低适应的需求;水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。     

东北地区农业应对气候变化的策略与措施分析

气候变化的影响与适应已经成为农业生产面临的现实而紧迫的问题。1956-2005年东北地区增温1.5℃,幅度明显高于全国平均水平,给作物生产带来复杂的影响。东北是重要的国家商品粮生产基地,对国家粮食安全起着重要作用。探讨区域层面上适应气候变化的能力建设更具有针对性和现实性。文章分析了近50 a来东北地区气候变化的主要表现及其对农业生产的影响;针对气候变化过程中人类活动对土地利用和温室气体的影响,提出了东北地区适应和减缓气候变化的策略和措施,强调在农业生态、水资源利用、环境保护等多方面综合开展工作,积极采取行动,最终达到维护气候环境、充分利用气候资源的目的,为东北粮食生产安全、农业可持续发展做出贡献。