Probability forecast of earthquake magnitude in Chinese mainland before A．D． 2005

ＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄｂｅｆｏｒｅＡ．Ｄ．２００５ＸＩＡＯ－ＱＩＮＧＷＡＮＧ（王晓青），ＺＨＥＮＧ－ＸＩＡＮＧＦＵ（傅征祥）ａｎｄＭＩＮＧＪＩＡＮＧ（蒋铭）...     

Seismic hazard estimate for a low seismicity region — Example of Bohemia

The contribution reviews basic concepts of earthquake hazard assessment for sites of nuclear power plants. Taking into account the delineation of earthquake source regions, intensity-frequency relations, upper intensity thresholdsI _max and intensity attenuation curves, we determine the seismic hazard for a site in south Bohemia and calculated the quantities defining the seismic hazard, i.e. return period in years, probability of exceedance for different intensities and different periods of interest. The adopted procedure has some limitations due to the poor definition of seismogenic zones (boundaries,N(I),I _max) and lack of strong motion observations in Central Europe.Communication presented at the XVII General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission in Budapest, 21–29 August 1980.     

2003年云南大姚两次强震破裂区重叠程度的研究

地震破裂后,破裂区应变能是否已经充分释放.能否在破裂面内再次发生震级接近的地震,是双主震研究的重要问题.通过对2003年云南大姚两个地震序列的双差定位,发现余震区扩展,但两余震区无论在深度上还是在水平位置上基本不重叠.又通过相对定位的方法,发现7月21日主震位于10月16日主震的北西西方向.此外,还通过P波初动极性分析...     

Do trench sediments affect great earthquake occurrence in subduction zones?

Seismic energy release is dominated by the underthrusting earthquakes in subduction zones, and this energy release is further concentrated in a few subduction zones. While some subduction zones are characterized by the occurrence of great earthquakes, others are relatively aseismic. This variation in maximum earthquake size between subduction zones is one of the most important features of global seismicity. Previous work has shown that the variation in maximum earthquake size is correlated with the variation in two other subduction zone properties: age of the subducting lithosphere and convergence rate. These two properties do not explain all the variance in maximum earthquake size. I propose that a third subduction zone property, trench sediments, explains part of the remaining variance in maximum earthquake size. Subduction zones are divided into two groups: (1) those with excess trench sediments, and (2) those with horst and graben structure at the trench. Thirteen of the 19 largest subduction zone events, including the three largest, occur in zones with excess trench sediments. About half the zones with excess trench sediments are characterized by great earthquake occurrence. Most of the other zones with excess trench sediments but without great earthquakes are predicted to have small earthquakes by the age-rate correlation. Two notable exceptions are the Oregon-Washington and Middle America zones. Overall, the presence of excess trench sediments appears to enhance great earthquake occurrence. One speculative physical mechanism that connects trench sediments and earthquake size is that excess trench sediments are associated with the subduction of a coherent sedimentary layer, which at elevated temperature and pressure, forms a homogeneous and strong contact zone between the plates.     

大青山山前活动断裂带分段与潜在震源区划分

潜在震源区的划分主要包括潜在震源区范围的划定以及震级上限的确定,目前遵循地震构造类比和地震活动重复等原则。而活断层的分段特性也是潜在震源区划分时必须考虑的一个重要因素。大青山山前断裂带至今有3种不同的分段方案,文中比较分析了前人对大青山山前断裂带的分段,并在此基础上对大青山及山前盆地的潜在震源区作了新的划分。鄂尔多斯块体周缘被拉张性断陷盆地围绕,这些断裂系地震构造相似,且除呼包盆地外均有历史8级以上地震记录。文中将大青山山前断裂带与鄂尔多斯块体周缘断裂系进行了构造对比,特别是与华山山前断裂进行了断裂活动性定量对比,得出雪海沟到土左旗段的震级上限为8级,断裂两端潜源震级上限均为7.5级     

板内地震填空与断层运动型式

根据人们对板缘地震填空的认识,本文用震级—断层长度的经验关系式分析了我国郯庐断裂带、张家口—烟台断裂带、鲜水河和塔里木盆地北缘等断裂带的地震活动与地质构造的关系。指出在板块内部同样存在着地震沿带逐渐“填满补齐”的现象。这种地震填空,主要发生在那些扭压型和剪滑型的断裂带上。一个基本连续的活动断裂带是板内地震填空所必需的地质条件。作者认为,板内地震填空与断层现代运动的不同型式(或状态)密切相关。一个活动断裂带由稳滑、相对闭锁到破裂位错正是地震空区形成、发展直至发生大地震的带内地震填空过程,与此相应的应变积累段、闭锁段和释放松动段在地质上的差别是:断面上新沉积物覆盖程度依次减小,断层泥粘结度逐次降低而其厚度依次增厚,因而对于那些全新世以来有过活动而断面上新沉积物覆盖较大的一类活断层尤应引起注意。     

The rupture process and asperity distribution of three great earthquakes from long-period diffracted P-waves

Maximum earthquake size varies considerably amongst the subduction zones. This has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling, which is presumably related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. The rupture process of a great earthquake indicates the distribution of strong (asperities) and weak regions of the fault. The rupture process of three great earthquakes (1963 Kurile Islands, M_W = 8.5; 1965 Rat Islands, M_W = 8.7; 1964 Alaska, M_W = 9.2) are studied by using WWSSN stations in the core shadow zone. Diffraction around the core attenuates the P-wave amplitudes such that on-scale long-period P-waves are recorded. There are striking differences between the seismograms of the great earthquakes; the Alaskan earthquake has the largest amplitude and a very long-period nature, while the Kurile Islands earthquake appears to be a sequence of magnitude 7.5 events.The source time functions are deconvolved from the observed records. The Kurile Islands rupture process is characterized by the breaking of asperities with a length scale of 40–60 km, and for the Alaskan earthquake the dominant length scale in the epicentral region is 140–200 km. The variation of length scale and M_W suggests that larger asperities cause larger earthquakes. The source time function of the 1979 Colombia earthquake (M_W = 8.3) is also deconvolved. This earthquake is characterized by a single asperity of length scale 100–120 km, which is consistent with the above pattern, as the Colombia subduction zone was previously ruptured by a great (M_W = 8.8) earthquake in 1906.The main result is that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities (e.g. the Alaskan earthquake), while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes (e.g. Kurile Islands) have smaller scattered asperities.     

Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

IntroductionEarthquake recurrence models established on activity behaviors of strong earthquakes are the bases of long-term earthquake prediction, seismic risk zonation, and seismic hazard assessment. A lot of studies have been carried out on earthquake recurrence behaviors for specific seismogenic sources or fault-segments, and a series of empirical recurrence models have been proposed, such as the time-predictable model and the slip-predictable model for earthquakes repeated at the previous …     

中国西部地区地震烈度衰减关系

本文收集了1991年之后我国西部地区71个地震的烈度等震线资料,并以此对1918—1989年间176次地震的烈度资料进行了补充,采用长、短轴椭圆模型重新拟合了西部地区的分区地震烈度衰减关系。结果表明,新疆区和川藏区2个统计单元内地震烈度衰减关系有显著不同,应作为不同的分区对待。同时与其他研究者给出的该地区地震烈度衰减关系的对比结果显示,本文结果合理可靠,体现了近、远场地震烈度分布的特点,适合于该地区工程地震研究和应用。     

A Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoining Regions

The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M _max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M _max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.     

多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势

综合多种前兆方法分析地震活动规律,研究目标地区未来地震发生的趋势。首先采用图像信息法(PI)进行扫描,从长期尺度上找出研究区域内地震活动异常的地区,并结合相关的活动断裂分布及区域地震活动确定未来地震的发震危险区;然后采用加卸载响应比(LURR)、态矢量(SV)、矩张量加速释放(AMR)等中短期前兆方法分析这些区域的地震发生可能,并对地震发生的相关信息做进一步估算;在空间上实现向地震危险区域的逐渐逼近,时间上实现从长期预测到中短期预测的自然过渡。作为回顾性震例研究,我们对近3年来发生在中国西部的强震(ML6.5)进行了检验,结果表明,相对于单一算法而言,将不同前兆方法适当组合结合能够更为明确地为未来地震危险性评估提供信息和约束。     

Deep structure and tomographic imaging of strong earthquake source zones

This work generalizes the results of tomographic imaging performed by the authors for epicentral zones. Seismic events in North Africa (the M _w = 5.8 earthquake of 1985 near the town of Constantine), eastern Anatolia (the Erzincan M _w = 6.7 earthquake of 1992), the Lesser and Greater Caucasus (the 1988 Spitak M _w = 6.8 and the 1991 Racha M _w = 7.0 earthquakes), and northern Sakhalin (the 1995 Neftegorsk M _w = 7.1 earthquake) are examined. It is shown how various morphokinematic types of active faults differ in the resulting tomographic images at various depths. A classification of tomographic images of strong earthquake source zones is proposed in accordance with the rank of their generating faults. The sources of the Spitak, Racha, and Erzincan earthquakes are confined to large boundary faults separating tectonic zones. Lower velocity bands are revealed in the tomographic images, and low velocity “pockets” 1–2 km or somewhat more in width penetrating to a depth of up to 15 km are observed near the fault zones. The Constantine and Neftegorsk earthquakes were generated by faults of a lower rank. The source zones of these events are imaged tomographically as narrow gradient zones.     

DISCUSSION ON ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH SETBACK DISTANCE FROM ACTIVE FAULT

Living with disaster is an objective reality that human must face especially in China. A large number of earthquake case studies, such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, 2010 Yushu earthquake, 2014 Ludian earthquake, have demonstrated that earthquake heavy damage and casualties stem from ground-faulting or rupturing along seismogenic active fault, near-fault high ground accelerations and building catastrophic structural failure. Accordingly, avoidance of active faults may be an important measure to effectively reduce earthquake hazard, which may encounter in the future, but how to avoid an active fault and how much a setback distance from the active fault is required to ensure that the ground faulting and rupturing has no any direct impact on buildings. This has been the focus of debate both for domestic and foreign scholars. This paper, first of all, introduces the definition of active fault. Then, quantitative analyses are done of the high localization of earthquake surface ruptures and relationship between the localized feature of the coseismic surface ruptures and building damages associated with the measured widths of the historical earthquake surface rupture zones, and an average sstatistic width is obtained to be 30m both for the earthquake surface rupture zones and heavy damage zones along the seismogenic fault. Besides, the widths of the surface rupture zones and spatial distribution of the building damages of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake have also been analyzed to reveal a hanging-wall effect:Width of surface rupture zone or building damage zone on the hanging-wall is 2 or 3 times wider than that on its foot-wall for a dip-slip fault. Based on these latest knowledge learnt above, issues on avoidance object, minimum setback distance, location requirement of active fault for avoidance, and anti-faulting design for buildings in the surface rupture zone are further discussed. Finally, we call for national and local legislatures to accelerate the legislation for active fault survey and avoidance to normalize fault hazard zoning for general land-use planning and building construction. This preventive measure is significantly important to improve our capability of earthquake disaster reduction.     

The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) 1000–1899

In the frame of the European Commission project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE), aiming at harmonizing seismic hazard at a European scale, the compilation of a homogeneous, European parametric earthquake catalogue was planned. The goal was to be achieved by considering the most updated historical dataset and assessing homogenous magnitudes, with support from several institutions. This paper describes the SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC), which covers the time window 1000–1899. It strongly relies on the experience of the European Commission project “Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology” (NERIES), a module of which was dedicated to create the European “Archive of Historical Earthquake Data” (AHEAD) and to establish methodologies to homogenously derive earthquake parameters from macroseismic data. AHEAD has supplied the final earthquake list, obtained after sorting duplications out and eliminating many fake events; in addition, it supplied the most updated historical dataset. Macroseismic data points (MDPs) provided by AHEAD have been processed with updated, repeatable procedures, regionally calibrated against a set of recent, instrumental earthquakes, to obtain earthquake parameters. From the same data, a set of epicentral intensity-to-magnitude relations has been derived, with the aim of providing another set of homogeneous Mw estimates. Then, a strategy focussed on maximizing the homogeneity of the final epicentral location and Mw, has been adopted. Special care has been devoted also to supply location and Mw uncertainty. The paper focuses on the procedure adopted for the compilation of SHEEC and briefly comments on the achieved results.     

鲜水河断裂带多断层相互作用的流变断裂力学分析

本文研究了流变介质内多断层的相互影响,通过对鲜水河断裂带的分析,对该断裂带提出一个不共线三断层的断裂力学模型.把介质考虑成流变的,用有限元法结合解析方法求解了流变断裂力学问题的应力、应变及能量场的时空变化.结果表明,多断层的力学场与单一断层的力学场相差甚远,在断层间形成了影响区.在影响区内应力集中,梯度大,分布复杂,应变能在影响区内形成较大范围集中.应变能等值线在孕震期间从影响区向外扩张,能量从外围流向断层区,流动在时空上都是不均匀的,孕育初期增加速率大,后期渐渐平缓.流向影响区的能量比其周围区域大,形成很大梯度.并讨论了地震前兆的某些特征.根据本文的结果,认为在道孚-乾宁-带发生地震的可能性较大.     

2014年三峡秭归M4.5、M4.7震群序列定位及震源区三维P波速度结构研究

采用双差层析成像方法,对2014年3月27日M4.7和3月30日M4.5秭归震群重定位显示:0～5 km深度层P波高速区分布在仙女山断裂北中段和九畹溪断裂北段,天阳坪断裂一带为低速区;8 km深度层高速区分布在九畹溪断裂东侧,仙女山断裂较低;11 km层高速区仅分布在高桥断裂和周家山—牛口断裂之间地带。在地震集中区的下方(即8～12 km处)存在分布较为稳定的低速区,较大地震事件主要分布在高速区或高低速区交界地带,低速区内则很少有地震分布。局部高速体的存在为岩石发生瞬间破裂提供了物质基础,其与低速体间的梯度带是发震构造常发育的区域。研究区内的仙女山断裂北段、九畹溪断裂正是在该梯度带内发育的两条活动断裂。本地震序列的自地表至5 km和5～10 km深度范围内均有大量破裂存在表明,浅层地震仍在水库渗透范围内,而深部地震则与流体渗透无关。此次地震活动同时存在水库诱发地震和构造地震存在。     

Assessment of the Relative Largest Earthquake Hazard Level in the NW Himalaya and its Adjacent Region

In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of M_max, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP_6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K (K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP_6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a “very high” K index which is 6.     

川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究

我们根据历史地震资料，采用统计学方法研究了川滇地区7条活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征。结果表明，这7条断裂带的强地震复发表现出趋于随机的、随机的、以及丛集的行为，复发过程不具有良好的准周期性，也不存在强度－时间或者时间－强度的相依性。组成断裂带的强震破裂段落的数量越多，复发过程就越复杂。相对的地震活跃期与平静期交替出现。其中，活跃期内地震复发间隔分布的离散性较大，可用Weibull分布近似描述；而平静期的持续时间分布的离散性较小，可用正态等分布近似描述。不同相对活跃期的持续时间及强震的数量差别很大，导致相对活跃期并非准周期重视。因此，基于断裂带整体强震复发间隔分布的中长期危险性概率评估仍然面临一定的困难。     

青藏高原东北缘断层系统的大地震迁移概率及断层滑动速度的分段特征

青藏高原东北缘是青藏高原隆升、生长及变形前缘.区域地震活动频繁,且地震在其主要断层带之间时空迁移.为了研究区域大地震在主要断层带之间的迁移规律与概率,以及主要断层带大地震破裂的时空分布特征,本文建立了青藏高原东北缘地区的三维黏弹塑性有限元模型,模拟了区域断层系统的地震循环,得到了人工合成的万年时间尺度的地震目录.根据模拟的地震目录,并结合古地震数据,计算分析了大地震(MW≥7)在研究区各个主要断层带之间的迁移概率,探讨了黏度、高程、统计时间长度等因素对大地震在各主要断层带之间的迁移概率和大地震在各主要断层带上的发生概率的影响,并且初步调查了海原断层带和香山天景山断层带的大地震破裂时空分布特征.研究结果显示:继区域最近两次大地震(1920年海原断层带上的M8.5海原大地震和1927年香山天景山断层带上的M8古浪大地震)之后,下一次大地震(MW≥7)发生在海原断层上的概率最大,约为51%～81%;其次是在香山天景山断层上,概率约为9%～37%.模型结果显示,不同的青藏高原中下地壳上地幔黏度大小,对大地震在各个断层带之间的迁移规律和迁移概率的影响较小;而研究区的高程载荷对地震迁移则有显著的影响:高程载荷易于使得海原断层地震活动减弱及香山天景山断层的地震活动增强.研究结果也显示了青藏高原东北缘地区主要断层带的地震活动与断层滑动速率分布的分段性显著;大地震在断层带上的破裂位置并不固定,呈现不均匀性;并暗示了断层几何形状对地震活动、断层滑动速率分布与大地震破裂位置的控制作用.