Transition of solar cycle length in association with the occurrence of grand solar minima indicated by radiocarbon content in tree-rings

In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating.     

Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity

The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.     

Deep solar activity minima, sharp climate changes, and their impact on ancient civilizations

It is shown that, over the past ～10000 years (the Holocene), deep Maunder type solar minima have been accompanied by sharp climate changes. These minima occurred every 2300–2400 years. It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global change in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar activity minimum. The climate changes that took place at ca 4.0 ka BP and the deep solar activity minimum that occurred at ca 2.5 ka BP affected the development of human society, leading to the degradation and destruction of a number of ancient civilizations.     

Vulcanicity of historic times in the Middle Atlantic Islands

Of the five Middle Atlantic archipelagos, three, Azores, Canaries and Cape Verde, have been volcanically active probably from the mid-14th century onwards. Though Fogo is the only island in the Cape Verde group to show such activity, of all these islands it has erupted most frequently. Historic submarine vulcanism is associated only with the Azores. As per the imperfect data available, it is possible that the sixty five eruptions here recorded, have resulted in the production of some 24 km³ of lavas and ejecta. The matter of correlating vulcanism in these islands with Sunspot activity and/or Earth minima tides is open to question. Average peridiocity values for vulcanism are 8.1 years, for Sunspot activity, 11.1 years (1700–1965), and 18.6 years for Earth minima tides (1400–1978). Such extra-terrestrial agencies are to be considered more as trigger actions rather than basic causes of vulcanicity.     

Solar activity imprints in tree ring width from Chile (1610–1991)

We have investigated the solar activity signal in tree ring data from two locations in Chile. The tree ring time series extended over a period of ∼400 yr. Spectral and wavelet analysis techniques were employed. We have found evidence for the presence of the solar activity Schwabe (∼11 yr), Hale (∼22 yr), fourth-harmonic of the 208-yr Suess cycle (∼52 yr) and Gleissberg (∼80 yr) cycles. The Gleissberg cycle of tree ring data is in anti-phase with solar activity. Wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques revealed that the periods found are intermittent, possibly because solar activity signals observed in tree rings are mostly due to solar influence on local climate (rainfall, temperature, and cloud cover) where trees grow up. Further, cross-wavelet analysis between sunspot and tree ring time series showed that the cross power around the 11 yr solar cycle is more significant during periods of high solar activity (grand maximum) than during periods of low solar activity (grand minimum). As Glaciar Pio XI is practically at the Pacific Ocean level, the tree-ring response may be stronger due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean water following an increase of the solar radiation incidence rather than at the higher altitudes of Osorno region.     

Frequency Modulation as a Cause of Additional Branches of the Gleissberg Cycle in Solar Activity

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Of the solar-activity cycles with a period exceeding 22 years, the secular cycle, known as the Gleissberg cycle, attracts the most attention from researchers. In this...     

Geomagnetic activity and wind velocity during the Maunder minimum

Following a given classification of geomagnetic activity, we obtained aa index values for the Maunder minimum (1645–1715). It is found that the recurrent and fluctuating activities were not appreciable and that the shock activity levels were very low. The aa index level was due almost entirely to the quiet days. Calculated average solar-wind velocities were 194.3 km s^–1 from 1657 to 1700 and 218.7 km s^–1 from 1700 onwards. Also, the coronal magnetic field magnitude and southward interplanetary magnetic field component Bz were lower. It is concluded that the nearly absent levels of geomagnetic activity during this period were due to lower coronal and Bz magnetic field magnitudes as well as to the continuous impinging on the Earth of a slow wind.     

Late Holocene annual growth in three Alpine stalagmites records the influence of solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate

Annual growth rates and the ratio of dark to light-colored calcite within single annual laminae in three contemporaneously deposited Holocene speleothems from Grotta di Ernesto, an Alpine cave in northern Italy, respond to changes in surface temperature rather than precipitation. Based on monitoring of present-day calcite growth, and correlation with instrumental data for surface climatic conditions, we interpret a higher ratio of dark to light-colored calcite and the simultaneous thinning of annual laminae as indicative of colder-than-present winters. Such dark and thin laminae occur in those parts of the three stalagmites deposited from AD 1650 to 1713 and from AD 1798 to 1840, as reconstructed through lamina counting. These periods correspond to the well-known Maunder and Dalton Minima of solar activity. An 11-yr cyclicity in growth rate, coupled with reduced calcite deposition during the historic minima of solar activity, is indicative of a solar influence on lamina thickness. Spectral analysis of the lamina thickness data also suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation variability influenced winter temperatures. Based on the present-day controls on cave calcite formation, we infer that high-frequency changes in solar activity modulated the seasonal duration of soil CO₂ production.     

Indications of Changing Solar Activity and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature in Fennoscandian Climate

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Solar-climatic correlations were examined over the timescales, corresponding to solar cycles of Schwabe, Hale and Gleissberg, during the last 3–4 centuries using...     

Periodic and aperiodic dynamo waves

Abstract

In order to show that aperiodic magnetic cycles, with Maunder minima, can occur naturally in nonlinear hydromagnetic dynamos, we have investigated a simple nonlinear model of an oscillatory stellar dynamo. The parametrized mean field equations in plane geometry have a Hopf bifurcation when the dynamo number D=1, leading to Parker's dynamo waves. Including the nonlinear interaction between the magnetic field and the velocity shear results in a system of seven coupled nonlinear differential equations. For D>1 there is an exact nonlinear solution, corresponding to periodic dynamo waves. In the regime described by a fifth order system of equations this solution remains stable for all D and the velocity shear is progressively reduced by the Lorentz force. In a regime described by a sixth order system, the solution becomes unstable and successive transitions lead to chaotic behaviour. Oscillations are aperiodic and modulated to give episodes of reduced activity.     

Manifestation of Solar-Activity Cycles in the Rhythms of the Lacustrine Banded Clay of the Late Pleistocene and the Modern Era

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The paper considers the ratio between the spectral and time structures of solar activity, which consists of five main cycles (Schwabe, Hale, Brueckner, Gleissberg, and...     

Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum

Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Spörer catalog (Spörer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.–3 (1712–1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.–4 (1700–1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.     

Cycles revealed in Jurassic paleoclimatic data (ca. 200–145 Ma B.P.)

Limestone varves from the Todilto Basin, New Mexico (United States), are studied. These deposits cover a time interval of 1592 years and belong to the Jurassic (ca. 200–145 Ma B.P.). Via the construction of a combined spectral periodogram, quasiharmonic components are revealed in the initial data. The periods of these components are close to the basic contemporary solar activity cycles: the periods of 13 and 20 years agree with the Schwabe and Hale cycles; that of 78 years is in accord with the Gleissberg cycle (with both branches of 69 and 105 years represented); and the components of 179 and 235 years can be probably related to the Suess or de Vries cycles. The results indicate the influence of solar activity on the terrestrial climate in the geological past.     

基于高斯束与高斯波包的Gabor框架散射波模拟方法

在给出真实模型和相应光滑背景模型的情况下,如何计算扰动模型(散射体)产生的散射波场是一个有实际意义的正演问题.在Gabor变换域描述散射体,且入射波场为短时宽带信号时,散射波场可以在频率域用高斯束或时间域用高斯波包描述.相对于波动方程方法,高斯束和高斯波包的计算效率更高;背景模型光滑时,高斯束和高斯波包方法的精度也接近波动方程方法.文中导出了声波假设下应用高斯束和高斯波包计算散射波的方法.测试分析了高斯波包的计算精度.给出了一般散射体的散射波模拟策略.同时针对一个理论模型完成了本文方法计算散射波的实验,实验结果表明高斯波包散射波计算方法是有效可行的.     

Wave disturbances in the ionosphere during a lasting solar activity minimum

Using the Kharkov incoherent scatter radar, observations of wave disturbances in electron concentration N in the ionosphere at heights of 120–600 km are conducted. The measurements were carried out in the periods of the spring and fall equinoxes and winter and summer solstices. The height-time dependences of the absolute ΔN and relative ΔN/N amplitudes of wave disturbances, as well as their spectral composition, were analyzed. It is shown that wave disturbances in the ionosphere with periods of 10–180 min were present at almost any time of the day and in all seasons. Their absolute and relative amplitudes varied from 6 × 10⁹ to 6 × 10¹⁰ m⁻³ and from 0.01 to 0.5, respectively. The maximum values of ΔN and ΔN/N were observed at a height of ∼200 km. The passage of the solar terminator changed substantially the wave disturbance parameters.     

Comparing the performances of four stochastic optimisation methods using analytic objective functions, 1D elastic full‐waveform inversion,and residual static computation

We compare the performances of four stochastic optimisation methods using four analytic objective functions and two highly non‐linear geophysical optimisation problems: one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversion and residual static computation. The four methods we consider, namely, adaptive simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, neighbourhood algorithm, and particle swarm optimisation, are frequently employed for solving geophysical inverse problems. Because geophysical optimisations typically involve many unknown model parameters, we are particularly interested in comparing the performances of these stochastic methods as the number of unknown parameters increases. The four analytic functions we choose simulate common types of objective functions encountered in solving geophysical optimisations: a convex function, two multi‐minima functions that differ in the distribution of minima, and a nearly flat function. Similar to the analytic tests, the two seismic optimisation problems we analyse are characterised by very different objective functions. The first problem is a one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversion, which is strongly ill‐conditioned and exhibits a nearly flat objective function, with a valley of minima extended along the density direction. The second problem is the residual static computation, which is characterised by a multi‐minima objective function produced by the so‐called cycle‐skipping phenomenon. According to the tests on the analytic functions and on the seismic data, genetic algorithm generally displays the best scaling with the number of parameters. It encounters problems only in the case of irregular distribution of minima, that is, when the global minimum is at the border of the search space and a number of important local minima are distant from the global minimum. The adaptive simulated annealing method is often the best‐performing method for low‐dimensional model spaces, but its performance worsens as the number of unknowns increases. The particle swarm optimisation is effective in finding the global minimum in the case of low‐dimensional model spaces with few local minima or in the case of a narrow flat valley. Finally, the neighbourhood algorithm method is competitive with the other methods only for low‐dimensional model spaces; its performance sensibly worsens in the case of multi‐minima objective functions.     

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22–24: Analysis and physical interpretation

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd–24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008–2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K _ij ∝ R ^2?μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd–24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.     

松软覆盖层对隐伏断层带围陷波的影响研究

利用二维非均匀介质地震波传播的伪谱和有限差分混合方法,通过数值计算,讨论了松软覆盖层对隐伏断层带围陷波特征的影响.在没有覆盖层的情况下,围陷波振幅和围岩上相比明显增加,持续时间变长.覆盖层造成围岩上地面运动振幅增大,围陷波的部分能量传播到覆盖层中,使得围陷波的能量变小.随着覆盖层厚度增加,围陷波的振幅越来越小,和围岩上...     

Long-period eccentricity control on sedimentary sequences in the continental Madrid Basin (middle Miocene,Spain)

The middle Miocene Valdearenas–Muduex section in the internally-drained, continental Madrid Basin (central Spain) is dated bio-magnetostratigraphically between 15.2 Ma and 11.5 Ma. The section contains two formation-scale, sedimentary sequences, that both consist of a siliciclastic lower part and a calcareous upper part. Siliciclastic sedimentation took place in distal floodplain and fluvial environments, while limestones resulted from carbonate precipitation in calcic soil profiles and in ephemeral lacustrine water bodies. Spectral analysis of the L* colour time series points to the influence of the ～ 405-kyr and 0.97-Myr eccentricity cycles, while the bases of the two calcareous intervals correlate to successive minima of the 2.4-Myr eccentricity cycle. The 405-kyr cycle lags maximum eccentricity, whereas the 0.97 and 2.4-Myr cycles lag minimum eccentricity, each by approximately a quarter of a cycle. No obliquity forcing is detected. The observed orbital configuration of 2.4-Myr minima at the base of limestone-dominated intervals is similar to a previously documented Late Miocene shift in the Teruel Basin of northeast Spain. Our results indicate that long-period eccentricity climate forcing may well be a significant player on long, tectonic time scales in continental basin fill.     

Long-Term Changes in the Number and Magnitude of Forbush-Effects

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances has been used to study long-term changes in the number and magnitude of Forbush effects in the last six solar cycles (1957–2016) for cosmic rays of rigidity of 10 GV. Solar activity cycles have been shown to be well expressed in data of Forbush effects, especially in large magnitude events that almost disappear in minima. The changes in the distribution of Forbush effects and the decrease in their average values from solar activity maximum to minimum are explained by the predominance of cosmic-ray variations due to the action of coronal holes at low activity. It should be noted that the current cycle involves fewer and generally weaker Forbush effects than in the previous five cycles. For each month, an FD index combining the magnitude and number of Forbush effects and convenient for studying long-term variations has been proposed and calculated.