地面沉降对渤海湾风暴潮灾害防治的影响研究

渤海湾沿海地区地面沉降严重、风暴潮灾害频发。本文以天津作为典型区域,对风暴潮潮位测定、风暴潮灾害和防风暴潮预案措施等方面开展研究,认为地面沉降对上述3方面均有的不同程度的影响,在风暴潮灾害防治中必须考虑地面沉降问题。     

地面沉降对风暴潮灾害的增强作用

根据水准测量资料及水准点高程的线性模型计算,获得天津沿海地区地面沉降速率分布。结合风暴潮灾害与海堤工程现状调查,研究认为风暴潮灾害的经济损失与沿海地区不断加剧的地面沉降密切相关。天津地区风暴潮灾害的发生频率已由历史时期的8年一次,上升到地面沉降发展时期的5年一次,风暴潮致灾频率呈加快趋势,地面沉降以及由此引发的风暴潮灾害加剧已成为天津滨海新区沿海的重要自然灾害。提出应着力落实天津市控制地面沉降管理办法和防潮工程措施、加强地面沉降治理和海堤建设等工作建议。     

相对海平面上升的危害与防治对策

相对海平面上升已成为中国沿海地区海洋地质环境灾害之一。本文在有关学者以往研究工作的基础上,对中国相对海平面上升所造成的危害作了进一步探讨,并提出一系列防治对策。相对海平面上升能够在沿海地区造成海岸侵蚀、风暴潮灾害加剧、海水入侵、水资源和水环境遭到破坏、沿海低地被淹、防汛工程功能降低等诸多灾害。为了减缓这些灾害,采取一定的防治对策是十分迫切和必要的,其中加强海平面变化监测和科学研究是基础,提高海堤标准、加强海堤管理与保护、施行海滩人工喂养是关键,此外还要辅以公众意识的提高。     

人类活动与中国沿海环境工程地质问题

文章通过对中国沿海环境工程地质问题的总结和与其它地区的对比，对沿海环境工程地质研究的特点有了进一步的认识。（１）中国沿海地区的生态环境是脆弱敏感的，环境工程地质问题是复杂多样的，在全球变化和人类活动日益加剧的条件下，未来的环境与发展问题较为突出，必须予以高度重视。（２）地震、洪涝、地面沉降、软弱地基、滑坡、泥石流以及海岸侵蚀和风暴潮灾害是中国沿海环境工程地质的主要问题，且彼此间有较为密切的相关关系。无论是理论研究还是灾害防治都必须重视学科交叉结合，尤其是与海洋科学的交叉渗透和社会经济学的结合。（３）沿海地区是中国经济最发达的区域，２１世纪这一地区的开发和建设将会更加迅速，因此，必须加强沿海环境工程地质的研究，扩大研究领域，建立系统的理论，既要重视对现状的总结，又要对未来的发展趋势有科学的判断，着重灾害的防治与环境的改造、未来的规划与设计，才能更有效地为沿海地区的环境与发展的协调做出工程地质学的贡献。     

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.     

海洋第四纪地质研究在工程建设中的应用

海洋第四纪地质研究结合社会经济发展，研究人类活动对海洋的影响，因此广泛应用于海洋工程建设、矿产资源、海域综合管理、环境和灾害评估等领域，并为沿海地区的规划建设提供基础资料和科学依据，为防治灾害、保护环境提供合理化建议。本文通过作者的工作经历，结合其他部门的工作实例，系统地论述了海洋第四纪地质研究的内容及其应用，概括分析了其研究方法，并概述了其未来发展趋势，即必须建立信息化的海洋数据中心，提高海洋地质的调查研究水平，加强海洋监测和预测研究，促使研究成果更好地服务于社会发展。论文认为，海洋第四纪地质研究是海洋开发建设、海洋综合管理和其他海洋事务等方面不可或缺的一门科学，在社会经济发展中有着越来越重要的作用。加强和提高海洋第四纪地质研究工作，是社会发展的需要。     

抓住契机 推进地质灾害防治工作

一、历史的回顾我国是一个地质灾害十分严重的国家.西南、西北地区的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害;沿海地区的地面沉降灾害;华北、华南地区的岩溶塌陷、矿区塌陷灾害;华北和东北地区的土地冻融灾害等,每年造成巨大的经济损失和大量的人员伤亡.50年代以来,为了适应社会发展和经济建设的需要,各有关部门先后完成了大量地质环境和地质灾害勘查、研究工作,就其工作性质而言,主要可分为两个阶段:     

河北省海岸带地面沉降现状及形成机理研究

河北省沿海地区位于华北平原与渤海的交会地带,是一个人口聚集、生态环境脆弱、开发程度较高的地区,存在着较为严重的地面沉降灾害,对沿海地区人民生活、城市建设和社会发展造成了不利影响。本文通过In SAR监测及二等水准测量相结合的方式来研究河北省沿海地区地面沉降状况,分析影响海岸带In SAR提取形变精度的误差源及其校正方法,获取大比例尺高精度海岸带形变监测结果,并在此基础上分析研究河北省海岸带地面沉降的原因,为工程建设、区域规划、防灾减灾监测提供技术参考。     

广东沿海陆地表层地质灾害控制因素分析

根据地质环境背景资料和近350个地质灾害点和数十个水土流失区的数据库对广东沿海陆地表层地质灾害进行了综合分析和统计分析。结果表明，地质灾害的主要控制因素可分为三大类：地质环境因素、气候气象因素和人类活动因素，其中地质环境因素又可分为构造不稳定因素、斜坡不稳定因素和地面不稳定因素。指出，在广东沿海地区，除了地震灾害外，陆地表层地质灾害的主控因素是气候气象因素和人类活动因素，这是与山区以地质环境因素(尤其是内动力作用)为主是不相同的。降雨强度和时间、台风雨和风暴潮以及人类活动等对边坡和植被的改造是在沿海地区现有的地质环境背景下地质灾害多发的主要动力源。     

基于PSInSAR技术的唐山南部沿海地区地面沉降研究

唐山南部沿海地区是唐山市地面沉降灾害较严重的地区,地面沉降的快速发展对唐山世界级重化工业基地的功能发挥构成严重威胁,全面了解唐山南部沿海地区地面沉降的分布演化态势及其发育主导因素至关重要。基于中高分辨率雷达数据,采用PSInSAR技术获取唐山南部沿海地区地面沉降场的分布及演化信息,可以发现这一地区的区域地面沉降漏斗与地下水位下降漏斗具有良好的对应关系,且沉降区范围沿区内基底断裂带一侧展布。但在曹妃甸工业区,地面沉降特征与过量开采地下水引起的地面沉降特征有所不同,地面沉降区呈点状、斑状分布,沉降区范围较小,沉降中心的沉降梯度大。据调查,特殊的地质环境是该区地面沉降发育的基础条件,地下水超采、大规模工程扰动是诱发和加剧地面沉降的外在动力。     

The impact of climate change on coastal geological disasters in southeastern China

Climate change is presently a major global challenge. As the world??s largest developing country, China is particularly vulnerable to global warming, especially in the rapidly developing coastal regions in the southeast of the country. This paper provides an overview of the impacts of climate change on the nature of geological disasters in the coastal regions of southeastern China. In the context of climate change, processes with the potential for causing geological disasters in this region, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, storm surges, and slope failures, which already have a substantial occurrence history, are all aggravated. All these processes have their own characteristics and relevance to climate change. Sea-level rise together with land subsidence reduces the function of dikes and flood prevention infrastructure in the study areas and makes the region more vulnerable to typhoons, storm surges, floods, and astronomical tidal effects. Storm surges have caused great losses in the study areas and also have contributed to increases in rainstorms. As a result, numerous rainfall-induced slope failures, characterized by focused time concentration, high frequencies, strong ??burstiness,?? and substantial damage, occur in the study areas. To prevent and mitigate such disasters that are accelerated by climate change, and to reduce losses, a series of measures is proposed that may help to achieve sustainable development in coastal southeastern China.     

Emergency countermeasures against marine disasters in Qingdao City on the basis of scenario analysis

Storm surge, sea wave, sea ice, red tide and harmful marine creature bloom are main marine disasters occurring in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Marine disasters mentioned above can be divided into five categories, namely, marine meteorological disasters, marine hydrological disasters, marine geological disasters, marine ecological disasters and man-made marine disasters. Over the past century, the marine disasters in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City have caused great economic losses and casualties. In recent years, some problems still exist in emergency management against marine disasters in Qingdao City, such as inaccurate predictions of disasters, untimely early warning and lack of social participation in the emergency management. On the basis of scenario analysis, the authors try to predict different possible scenarios of marine disasters at different early warning levels and propose some optimized emergency countermeasures against marine disaster in Qingdao City. Results of our research can provide a theoretical basis for the revision and improvement of emergency plans and thus guarantee timely and effective emergency management actions against marine disasters in Qingdao City.

     

Emergency countermeasures against marine disasters in Qingdao City on the basis of scenario analysis

Storm surge, sea wave, sea ice, red tide and harmful marine creature bloom are main marine disasters occurring in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Marine disasters mentioned above can be divided into five categories, namely, marine meteorological disasters, marine hydrological disasters, marine geological disasters, marine ecological disasters and man-made marine disasters. Over the past century, the marine disasters in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City have caused great economic losses and casualties. In recent years, some problems still exist in emergency management against marine disasters in Qingdao City, such as inaccurate predictions of disasters, untimely early warning and lack of social participation in the emergency management. On the basis of scenario analysis, the authors try to predict different possible scenarios of marine disasters at different early warning levels and propose some optimized emergency countermeasures against marine disaster in Qingdao City. Results of our research can provide a theoretical basis for the revision and improvement of emergency plans and thus guarantee timely and effective emergency management actions against marine disasters in Qingdao City.     

我国海洋生态系统服务功能及其价值评估研究计划

国家海洋局于2005年启动了为期5年“海洋生态系统服务功能及其价值评估”研究计划。该计划的目标是建立具有我国海洋生态特征,适应我国社会经济发展水平的海洋生态系统服务功能定量模型和服务价值计算方法,并基于GIS技术开发生态系统服务价值评估系统,应用于评估渤海、黄海、东海和南海四大生态系统的服务价值和11个沿海省市区的近海服务价值,同时评估赤潮、病原生物和外来种导致的海洋生态系统服务价值损失,为实现人海和谐的海洋开发产业布局和用海活动提供定量评估技术支持,为基于生态系统的海洋管理提供理论支撑。目前,该计划已经建立了我国海洋生态系统服务功能分类体系、服务功能量化指标和服务价值计算指标体系,完成评估软件系统的设计。     

有害藻华的预测技术和防灾减灾对策研究进展

有害藻华给海洋生物、海水养殖业、海洋环境和公共健康安全造成了极大的威胁,已经成为世界性的海洋环境灾害之一.近几十年,我国近海有害藻华的发生频率和发生规模不断扩大,给国家经济发展和公共医疗卫生造成了极大的经济损失和不利影响.主要介绍了国内外常用的有害藻华预测技术,并参考国内外有效的有害藻华防治措施,为我国有害藻华的防灾减灾工作提出建议.我国亟需逐步建立有害藻华综合预警报业务体系和完备的应急减灾体系,才能进一步提升有害藻华等海洋环境灾害的应对能力.     

应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

Modelling coincidence and dependence of flood hazard phenomena in a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) framework: case study in Le Havre

Many coastal urban areas and many coastal facilities must be protected against pluvial and marine floods, as their location near the sea is necessary. As part of the development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Approach (PFHA), several flood phenomena have to be modelled at the same time (or with an offset time) to estimate the contribution of each one. Modelling the combination and the dependence of several flooding sources is a key issue in the context of a PFHA. As coastal zones in France are densely populated, marine flooding represents a natural hazard threatening the coastal populations and facilities in several areas along the shore. Indeed, marine flooding is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. It is mainly generated by storm action that makes sea level rise above the tide. Furthermore, when combined with rainfall, coastal flooding can be more consequent. While there are several approaches to analyse and characterize marine flooding hazard with either extreme sea levels or intense rainfall, only few studies combine these two phenomena in a PFHA framework. Thus this study aims to develop a method for the analysis of a combined action of rainfall and sea level. This analysis is performed on the city of Le Havre, a French urban city on the English Channel coast, as a case study. In this work, we have used deterministic materials for rainfall and sea level modelling and proposed a new approach for estimating the probabilities of flooding.

     

An Analysis of the Recent Severe Storm Surge Disaster Events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surgedisasters is much higher than that caused by anyother marine disaster in China, the loss from the severestorm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics showthat there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeastcoast of China since 1990, three of which,occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused themost severe damage. The direct economic lossesdue to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan(RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD,respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year duringthe 1989–1991 period. This paper makes a comparativeanalysis of the damage caused by the three events andpresents an overview of progress of precautions againststorm surge disaster in China. The suggestedcounter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe stormsurge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raisethe whole society awareness of precaution against severestorm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan forbuilding sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the availablewarning and disaster relief command system; (4)Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigatethe loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.     

Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones. The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000 people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.