典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法

分析了1988~2006年中62个典型的太阳质子事件,发现其归一化后峰值流量变化具有很好的统计规律,根据该规律提出了一种对太阳质子事件峰值流量进行预报的方法.试验预报结果表明,太阳质子事件峰值流量的预报值和实测值都在同一个量级以内,平均相对误差为32％,预报误差在可接受范围内.本文方法对于日常预报业务而言是实用和可行的.     

Relationship of atmospheric ozone profiles to solar magnetic activity

The observed relationship between atmospheric vorticity variations and solar magnetic sector boundary passages is examined for a possible connection via ionization changes affecting ozone distributions. A superposed epoch analysis was performed on Umkehr distributions for 18 years from Arosa, Switzerland, with use of more than 500 solar sector boundary passages as keyday zero. No significant responses are observed in any Umkehr level or in total observed ozone amounts. Further analyses on shorter records for Belsk, Poland, and Hohenpeissenberg, West Germany, corroborate these results. Another analysis for Arosa with about 100 type IV solar flares as keyday zero also shows no definitive trend. It is concluded that ozone distribution changes cannot be the primary causative mechanism for vorticity variations.Journal Paper No. J-8838 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 1852.     

Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle

Despite substantial progress in atmospheric modeling, the agreement of the simulated atmospheric response to decadal scale solar variability with the solar signal in different atmospheric quantities obtained from the statistical analysis of the observations cannot be qualified as successful. An alternative way to validate the simulated solar signal is to compare the sensitivity of the model to the solar irradiance variability on shorter time scales. To study atmospheric response to the 28-day solar rotation cycle, we used the chemistry–climate model SOCOL that represents the main physical–chemical processes in the atmosphere from the ground up to the mesopause. An ensemble simulation has been carried out, which is comprised of nine 1-year long runs, driven by the spectral solar irradiance prescribed on a daily basis using UARS SUSIM measurements for the year 1992. The correlation of zonal mean hydroxyl, ozone and temperature averaged over the tropics with solar irradiance time series have been analyzed. The hydroxyl has robust correlations with solar irradiance in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, because the hydroxyl concentration is defined mostly by the photolysis. The simulated sensitivity of the hydroxyl to the solar irradiance changes is in good agreement with previous estimations. The ozone and temperature correlations are more complicated because their behavior depends on non-linear dynamics and transport in the atmosphere. The model simulates marginally significant ozone response to the solar irradiance variability during the Sun rotation cycle, but the simulated temperature response is not robust. The physical nature of this is not clear yet. It seems likely that the temperature (and partly the ozone) daily fields possess their own internal variability, which is not stable and can differ from year to year reflecting different dynamical states of the system.     

2001年4月2日太阳耀斑及其太阳质子事件的观测结果研究

2001年4月2日, 太阳爆发了一个近年来X射线通量最大的一次耀斑并伴有质子事件, 利用“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器和神舟二号飞船X射线探测器的观测资料, 对这一事件的高能粒子响应进行了特例研究. “资源一号”卫星运行于太阳同步轨道, 高度约800km, 和宁静时期的统计结果对比, 这次耀斑后, 星内粒子探测器在地球极盖区（地球开磁场区）观测到耀斑粒子的出现, 这是宁静时期没有的; 神舟二号飞船轨道高度400km, 倾角为42°, X射线探测器在42°中高纬地区也观测到高能电子通量比宁静时明显的增加, 这表明, 太阳耀斑引起的近地空间辐射环境的变化遍及纬度约40°以上的区域, 甚至在40°N附近400 km左右的高度上仍然有响应. 但是, 中高纬度、极光带和极盖区的粒子来源, 加速机制和响应方式却不一定相同, 需要分别讨论. 资料分析和对比还表明, 质子事件的强度并不一定和耀斑的X射线通量成正比, 因此, 近地空间高能粒子对耀斑的响应也不是完全决定于X射线强度.     

Mismatch between variations of solar indices, stratospheric ozone and UV-B observed at ground

In solar cycles 22–23, all solar indices showed maxima near 1990 and 2000 and minima in 1996. The maximum to minimum variation was only 1–2% in the UV range 240–350 nm. Dobson ozone intensities did not show any clear relationship with solar cycle and ozone variations were less than 10%. The UV-B (295–325 nm) observed at ground by Brewer spectrophotometers at some locations had variations of 50–100% for 295–300 nm, and 20–50% for 305–325 nm. The maxima were in different years at different locations (even with separations of only 300 km), did not match with the solar cycle, and were far too large to be explained on the basis of ozone changes (1% decrease of ozone is expected to cause 2% increase of UV-B). Thus, if the data are not bad, the UV-B changes do not match with solar activity or ozone changes and must be mostly due to other local effects (clouds, etc.?). When data are averaged over wide geographical regions, UV-B variation ranges are smaller (10–20%, probably because localised, highly varying cloud effects get filtered out), and are roughly as expected from ozone variations.     

The thermospheric semiannual density response to solar EUV heating

The goal of this study was to characterize the thermospheric semiannual density response to solar heating during the last 35 years. Historical radar observational data have been processed with special orbit perturbations on 28 satellites with perigee heights ranging from 200 to 1100 km. Approximately 225,000 very accurate average daily density values at perigee have been obtained for all satellites using orbit energy dissipation rates. The semiannual variation has been found to be extremely variable from year to year. The magnitude of the maximum yearly difference, from the July minimum to the October maximum, is used to characterize the yearly semiannual variability. It has been found that this maximum difference can vary by as much as 100% from one year to the next. A high correlation has been found between this maximum difference and solar EUV data. The semiannual variation for each year has been characterized based on analyses of annual and semiannual cycles, using Fourier analysis, and equations have been developed to characterize this yearly variability. The use of new solar indices in the EUV and FUV wavelengths is shown to very accurately describe the semiannual July minimum phase shifting and the variations in the observed yearly semiannual amplitude.     

Temporal and spatial response of hyporheic zone geochemistry to a storm event

Although there has been recent focus on understanding spatial variability in hyporheic zone geochemistry across different morphological units under baseflow conditions, less attention has been paid to temporal responses of hyporheic zone geochemistry to non‐steady‐state conditions. We documented spatial and temporal variability of hyporheic zone geochemistry in response to a large‐scale storm event, Tropical Storm Irene (August 2011), across a pool–riffle–pool sequence along Chittenango Creek in Chittenango, NY, USA. We sampled stream water as well as pore water at 15 cm depth in the streambed at 14 locations across a 30 m reach. Sampling occurred seven times at daily intervals: once during baseflow conditions, once during the rising limb of the storm hydrograph, and five times during the receding limb. Principal component analysis was used to interpret temporal and spatial changes and dominant drivers in stream and pore water geochemistry (n = 111). Results show the majority of spatial variance in hyporheic geochemistry (62%) is driven by differential mixing of stream and ground water in the hyporheic zone. The second largest driver (17%) of hyporheic geochemistry was temporal dilution and enrichment of infiltrating stream water during the storm. Hyporheic sites minimally influenced by discharging groundwater (‘connected’ sites) showed temporal changes in water chemistry in response to the storm event. Connected sites within and upstream of the riffle reflected stream geochemistry throughout the storm, whereas downstream sites showed temporally lagged responses in some conservative and biogeochemically reactive solutes. This suggests temporal changes in hyporheic geochemistry at these locations reflect a combination of changes in infiltrating stream chemistry and hyporheic flowpath length and residence time. The portion of the study area strongly influenced by groundwater discharge increased in size throughout the storm, producing elevated Ca²⁺ and concentrations in the streambed, suggesting zones of localized groundwater inputs expand in response to storms. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WRF-chem sensitivity to vertical resolution during a saharan dust event

The Saharan dust event that occurred between the 22nd and 30th of June 2012 influenced the atmospheric radiative properties over North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, the Western Mediterranean basin, extending its effects to France and Southern England. This event is well documented in satellite imagery, as well as on the air quality stations over the Iberian Peninsula and the AERONET NASA network. In order to assess the effect of the model vertical resolution on the extinction coefficient fields, as a proxy to the particulate matter concentrations in the atmosphere, the WRF-Chem model was applied during this period over a mother domain with a resolution of 18 km, covering Europe and North Africa. To this end five model setups differing in the number of vertical levels were tested. Model skills were evaluated by comparing the model results with CALIPSO and EARLINET LIDAR data. Results show that the model is able to simulate the higher level aerosol transport but it is susceptible to the vertical resolution used. This is due to the thickness of the transport layers which is, eventually, thinner than the vertical resolution of the model. When comparing model results to the observed vertical profiles, it becomes evident that the broad features of the extinction coefficient profile are generally reproduced in all model configurations, but finer details are captured only by the higher resolution simulations.     

太阳和地磁活动对磁赤道地区低热层NO密度的影响研究

利用SNOE卫星1998年3月11日至2000年9月30日共计935天观测的NO密度和太阳软X射线数据,分析了低热层NO的时空分布特征及其对太阳和地磁活动的响应,得出了以下结论:NO密度从96.67 km开始增加,大约在105～110 km高度达到最大,随后开始减小;同一高度处一般夏季期间最大,冬季次之,春秋分季最小;密度峰值大小变化范围约为(0.5～1.5)×108 mol/cm3,峰值高度基本分布在107 km和113 km高度处,且不随太阳活动变化,平均值约为107 km;NO密度与太阳软X射线及地磁Ap指数的相关系数在不同高度存在0、1和2天的最佳延迟时间,而同太阳软X射线的统计关系在不同高度和季节存在"线性"、"放大"和"饱和"现象;从统计和事件分析结果来看,太阳活动对磁赤道地区低热层NO密度的气候尺度变化的影响远大于地磁活动,但地磁活动对NO短期变化贡献非常明显.     

Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing

Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods.     

An automated cross‐correlation based event detection technique and its application to a surface passive data set

In studies on heavy oil, shale reservoirs, tight gas and enhanced geothermal systems, the use of surface passive seismic data to monitor induced microseismicity due to the fluid flow in the subsurface is becoming more common. However, in most studies passive seismic records contain days and months of data and manually analysing the data can be expensive and inaccurate. Moreover, in the presence of noise, detecting the arrival of weak microseismic events becomes challenging. Hence, the use of an automated, accurate and computationally fast technique for event detection in passive seismic data is essential. The conventional automatic event identification algorithm computes a running‐window energy ratio of the short‐term average to the long‐term average of the passive seismic data for each trace. We show that for the common case of a low signal‐to‐noise ratio in surface passive records, the conventional method is not sufficiently effective at event identification. Here, we extend the conventional algorithm by introducing a technique that is based on the cross‐correlation of the energy ratios computed by the conventional method. With our technique we can measure the similarities amongst the computed energy ratios at different traces. Our approach is successful at improving the detectability of events with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio that are not detectable with the conventional algorithm. Also, our algorithm has the advantage to identify if an event is common to all stations (a regional event) or to a limited number of stations (a local event). We provide examples of applying our technique to synthetic data and a field surface passive data set recorded at a geothermal site.     

Comparative analysis of the response of various land covers to an exceptional rainfall event in the central Spanish Pyrenees,October 2012

The hydrological and geomorphological effects of an exceptional rainstorm event that occurred in the central Spanish Pyrenees during 19–21 October 2012 were studied in five experimental catchments under various land covers: (i) subhumid badlands; (ii) dense forest; (iii) an abandoned farmland area recolonized by shrubs and forest patches; and (iv) subalpine grasslands. Hydrographs and sedigraphs demonstrated that vegetation cover is a major factor affecting the control of floods even during exceptional rainstorms, at least at the spatial scale at which the phenomenon was studied (catchment sizes: 0.3–2.8 km2) and under dry catchment conditions. The combined precipitation over the two days (c. 250 mm) was the greatest for any two‐day event recorded since 1950 in the central‐western Pyrenees for all but one of the stations in the study. Five pulses of most intense rainfall were recorded. The forested catchment did not react to the two most intense rainfall pulses, because of the very low antecedent level of the water table. The main peak flow occurred only when at least a part of the catchment was saturated. The abandoned farmland catchment had two small peak discharges at the beginning of the event, which were produced by infiltration excess overland flow from eroded areas close to the main stream. During the third most intense rainfall period a large part of this catchment contributed to runoff and a relatively high peak discharge was produced. The badland catchment reacted immediately from the beginning of the rainstorm, yielding very high discharges accompanied by high suspended sediment concentrations. The subalpine catchment showed a hydrograph mirroring the hyetograph, with brief but intense hydrological responses to increased precipitation, because of the marked gradients and the presence of bare rock in the headwaters. A high volume of bedload was carried during the peak discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetostratigraphy of the lower member of the hadar formation (Ethiopia): Evidence for a short normal event in the mammoth subchron

Summary Rock magnetism and magnetostratigraphy of the lower part of the Hadar Formation (Afar, Ethiopia) is presented after analysis of multiple new collection of samples from over 84 horizons. The Hadar Formation is composed of lacustrine, lake margin, fluvial and flood plain sediments and known for important Pliocene vertebrate faunas including Australopithecus afarensis. Hysteresis measurements, thermomagnetic analysis, growth and decay of isothermal remanent magnetisation are used to unravel the complex magnetic mineralogy of the different representative lithologies. Ferrimagnetic minerals of magnetite or titanomagnetite in composition, in the stable pseudo-single domain (PSD) size range are found to be the main carriers of the remanence. In most sites the characteristic remanence was isolated using stepwise thermal demagnetisation. The overall mean direction for about 72 horizons (434 samples) is D=358·6°, I=7° (k=17·9, α₉₅=4°) implying some 14° of inclination shallowing, related to sediment compaction due to the very rapid sedimentation history of the site. Five successive polarity zones (N1-R1-N2-R2-N3) are identified and correlation with the lower Gauss chron of the astronomically calibrated geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) is proposed using the existing⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. This implies the existence of a short normal polarity event (N2), identified on six different sites, within the reversed Mammoth subchron, called the Kada-Hadar event. The age calculated for the Kada-Hadar event, using linear interpolation of the dated horizons, assuming a constant rate of sedimentation is 3.246 Ma and its duration is about 8 kyr.     

Cross-field gradients: general concept, importance of multi-spacecraft measurements and study at 1 AU of the source intensity gradient for E>30 keV solar event electrons

Three main physical processes (and associated properties) are currently used to describe the flux and anisotropy time profiles of solar energetic particle events, called SEP profiles. They are (1) the particle scattering (due to magnetic waves), (2) the particle focusing (due to the decrease of the amplitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with the radial distance to the Sun) and (3) the finite injection profile at the source. If their features change from one field line to another, i.e. if there is a cross IMF gradient (CFG), then the shape of the SEP profiles will depend, at onset time, on the relative position of the spacecraft to the IMF and might vary significantly on small distance scale (e.g. 10⁶ km). One type of CFG is studied here. It is called intensity CFG and considers variations, at the solar surface, only of the intensity of the event. It is shown here that drops of about two orders of magnitude over distances of 10⁴ km at the Sun (1° of angular distance) can influence dramatically the SEP profiles at 1 AU. This CFG can lead to either an under or overestimation of both the parallel mean free path and of the injection parameters by factor up to, at least, 2/3 and 18, respectively. Multi-spacecraft analysis can be used to identify CFG. Three basic requirements are proposed to identify, from the observation, the type of the CFG being measured.     

Storm runoff response to rainfall pattern,magnitude and urbanization in a developing urban catchment

This study explored the hydrological impacts of urbanization, rainfall pattern and magnitude in a developing catchment. The Stormwater Management Model was parameterized, calibrated and validated in three development phases, which had the same catchment area (12.3 ha) but different land use intensities. The model calibration and validation by using sub‐hourly hydro‐meteorological data demonstrated a good performance of the model in predicting stormwater runoff in the different development phases. Based on the results, a threshold between minor and major rainfall events was identified and conservatively determined to be about 17.5 mm in depth. Direct runoff for minor storm events has a linear relationship with rainfall; however, events with a rainfall depth greater than the threshold yield a rainfall–runoff regression line with a clearly steeper slope. The difference in urban runoff generation between minor and major rainfall events diminishes with the increase of imperviousness. Urbanization leads to an increase in the production of stormwater runoff, but during infrequent major storms, the runoff contribution from pervious surfaces reduces the runoff changes owing to urbanization. Rainfall pattern exerts an important effect on urban runoff, which is reflected in pervious runoff. With the same magnitude, prolonged rainfall events with unvarying low intensity yield the smallest peak flow and the smallest total runoff, yet rainfall events with high peak intensity produce the largest runoff volume. These results demonstrate the different roles of impervious and pervious surfaces in runoff generation, and how runoff responds to rainstorms in urban catchments depends on hyetograph and event magnitude. Furthermore, the study provides a scientific basis of the design guideline sustainable urban drainage systems, which are still arbitrary in many countries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A quick cooling event of the East Asian monsoon responding to Heinrich Event 1: Evidence from stalagmite δ18O records

Based on TIMS U-series dating results and annual band counting method, an annual-resolution time scale from 17450 to 14420 aBP has been established for a stalagmite from the Hulu Cave at Tangshan, Nanjing. A high-resolution oxygen isotopic record reveals decadral-centural oscillations in air temperature in the East Asian monsoon climate area during the last glacial maximum. The most conspicuous feature in the oxygen isotopic record in the period is the particular cold event synchronized with the last Heinrich event (H1) in the northern Atlantic deep-sea records. This particular cold event, beginning at 16140 ( 100 aBP, shows a rapid cooling down with a magnitude of 7-8℃ in air temperature within 36 years. Furthermore, (6)18O record demonstrates that the event lasted 790 years with gradually warming tendency (10 cycles of air temperature oscillations) after the remarkable cooling down. We believed that this unique pattern of event recorded in the stalagmite ? 8O might be controlled by various factors including changes of insolation at mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, the southern extend of the last ice-rafted event in the North Atlantic and changes of the Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.     

Assessing entrainment of bed material in a debris‐flow event: a theoretical approach incorporating Monte Carlo method

Entrainment of underlying bed sediment by a debris flow can significantly increase the debris‐flow magnitude. To study this phenomenon, a theoretical approach to assessing bed‐sediment entrainment is presented. The approach is based on a static approximation that bed‐sediment entrainment occurs when the shearing stress of the flow is sufficiently high to overcome the basal resistance of the bed sediment. In order to delineate erodible zones in a channel, we analyze the critical condition of this static equilibrium model, and subsequently propose a new concept of a critical line to detect the entrainment reaches in a channel. Considering the spatial and temporal uncertainties of the input parameter, the approach is further incorporated within a Monte Carlo method, and the distribution of entrainment zones and post‐entrainment volumes can be analyzed. This approach is illustrated by back‐analysis of the 2010 Yohutagawa debris‐flow event, Japan. Results from 10 000 trials of Monte Carlo simulation are compared with the in situ surveys. It is shown that the present approach can be satisfactorily used to delineate erodible zones and estimate possible entrainment volume of the event. Discussion regarding the sensitivities and limitations of the approach concludes the paper. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rain event properties in nature and in rainfall simulation experiments: a comparative review with recommendations for increasingly systematic study and reporting

In hydrology and geomorphology, less attention has been paid to rain event properties such as duration, mean and peak rain rate than to rain properties such as drop size or kinetic energy. A literature review shows a lack of correspondence between natural and simulated rain events. For example, 26 studies that report event statistics from substantial records of natural rain reveal a mean rain rate of just 3·47 mm h^?1 (s.d. 2·38 mm h^?1). In 17 comparable studies dealing with extreme rain rates including events in cyclonic, tropical convective, and typhoon conditions, a mean maximum rain rate (either hourly or mean event rain rate) of 86·3 mm h^?1 (s.d. 57·7 mm h^?1) is demonstrated. However, 49 studies using rainfall simulation involve a mean maximum rain rate of 103·1 mm h^?1 (s.d. 81·3 mm h^?1), often sustained for > 1 h, exceeding even than of extreme rain events, and nearly 30 times the mean rain rate in ordinary, non‐exceptional, rain events. Thus rainfall simulation is often biased toward high rain rates, and many of the rates employed (in several instances exceeding 150 mm h^?1) appear to have limited relevance to ordinary field conditions. Generally, simulations should resemble natural rain events in each study region. Attention is also drawn to the raindrop arrival rate at the surface. In natural rain, this is known to vary from < 100 m^?2 s^?1 to > 5000 m^?2 s^?1. Arrival rate may need to be added to the list of parameters that must be reproduced realistically in rainfall simulation studies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.