Climatological Tools for Low Visibility Forecasting

Forecasters need climatological forecasting tools because of limitations of numerical weather prediction models. In this article, using Finnish SYNOP observations and ERA-40 model reanalysis data, low visibility cases are studied using subjective and objective analysis techniques. For the objective analysis, we used an AutoClass clustering algorithm, concentrating on three Finnish airports, namely, the Rovaniemi in northern Finland, Kauhava in western Finland, and Maarianhamina in southwest Finland. These airports represent different climatological conditions. Results suggested that combining of subjective analysis with an objective analysis, e.g., clustering algorithms such as the AutoClass method, can be used to construct climatological guides for forecasters. Some higher level subjective “meta-clustering” was used to make the results physically more reasonable and easier to interpret by the forecasters.     

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.     

Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog appears in the surface boundary layer and is driven by the interactions between land surface and the lower layers of the atmosphere. These interactions are still not well parameterized in current operational NWP models, and a new methodology based on local observations, an adaptive assimilation scheme and a local numerical model is tested. The proposed numerical forecast method of foggy conditions has been run during three years at Paris-CdG international airport. This test over a long-time period allows an in-depth evaluation of the forecast quality. This study demonstrates that detailed 1-D models, including detailed physical parameterizations and high vertical resolution, can reasonably represent the major features of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset and burn-off time is typically 1 h. The major weakness of the methodology is related to the evolution of low clouds (stratus lowering). Even if the occurrence of fog is well forecasted, the value of the horizontal visibility is only crudely forecasted. Improvements in the microphysical parameterization and in the translation algorithm converting NWP prognostic variables into a corresponding horizontal visibility seems necessary to accurately forecast the value of the visibility.     

Microphysical Observations and Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Warm Fog Case during FRAM Project

The objective of this work is to apply a new microphysical parameterization for fog visibility for potential use in numerical weather forecast simulations, and to compare the results with ground-based observations. The observations from the Fog Remote Sensing And Modeling (FRAM) field which took place during the winter of 2005 – 2006 over southern Ontario, Canada (Phase I) were used in the analysis. The liquid water content (LWC), droplet number concentration (N_d), and temperature (T) were obtained from the fog measuring device (FMD) spectra and Rosemount probe, correspondingly. The visibility (Vis) from a visibility meter, liquid water path from microwave radiometers (MWR), and inferred fog properties such as mean volume diameter, LWC, and N_d were also used in the analysis. The results showed that Vis is nonlinearly related to both LWC and N_d. Comparisons between newly derived parameterizations and the ones already in use as a function of LWC suggested that if models can predict the total N_d and LWC at each time step using a detailed microphysics parameterization, Vis can then be calculated for warm fog conditions. Using outputs from the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model, being tested with a new multi-moment bulk microphysical scheme, the new Vis parameterization resulted in more accurate Vis values where the correction reached up to 20 –50%.     

Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data

The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility to support to nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Météosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: No risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due to satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.     

基于气体包裹体模型的低孔低渗储层声波速度研究

随着石油勘探工业的持续发展和技术水平的日益提高,低孔低渗油气藏已成为我国油气勘探开发的重要领域之一,但是该类油气藏的储层岩石物理关系复杂,对其评价也相对较难。本文针对中深层气藏低孔低渗储层评价存在的困难,采用修正的White气体包裹体模型开展岩石物理研究。首先对气体包裹体模型进行分析,得到纵横波速度的计算公式,进而理论计算并分析纵横波速度与孔隙度、饱和度、压力及温度参数的变化关系,最后结合岩心实验对理论计算结果进行了验证。研究结果表明基于气体包裹体模型的理论计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,可以较好地为低孔低渗复杂储层声波速度测量及解释提供技术支持。     

水文学与水力学相结合的南四湖洪水预报模型

南四湖流域是一个复杂的大流域，是东线南水北调的重要调节湖泊之一，也是干旱和洪水频繁流域．本文首先采 用分布式的新安江模型，对有实测流量资料的支流流域进行了模型参数率定，洪量预报达到了一定的精度，建立了南四湖 流域的洪水预报模型．采用一维、二维水力学模型并与水文学模型耦合进行上级湖的流量演进以及二级坝水利枢纽的 调度．     

SWAT模型在斯里兰卡河流径流预测中的运用

本文运用SWAT模型和新安江模型对斯里兰卡卡鲁河流域上游地区日径流进行了预测.卡鲁河是斯里兰卡的第二大河,由于流域的降雨量很大,上游地区河流沿峡谷流下,中下游平原地区河床平坦.卡鲁河流域的洪水变的很正常.应用SWAT模型来对卡鲁河的日径流量进行预测,并同应用新安江模型所得到的结果做对比.研究表明,新安江模型要比SWAT (分布式水文模型)模型在卡鲁河日径流量预测上稍微好一些.实际上,或许数据质量不高或不恰当是部分原因,因为SWAT的输出成果严格取决于其输入的数据质量.此外,在斯里兰卡,许多人的日常用水是靠井水.当把流域看作一个整体,通常都是一个很大的范围,那样的话就不可能详尽的记录所有各个小规模的水利用,例如:小灌溉、小规模的家畜管理和工业水利用.这些水利用累积起来或许就很可观.这些数据的缺失对分布式水文模型在水平衡的应用有着独特的影响.但是概念水文模型(如新安江模型)可以根据实际情况在校正中调节它的参数,因为这些参数并没有实质的物理含义.因此,在流域特征和模型输入数据有限或不完整的情况下,概念水文模型比分布式水文模型更具优势.     

考虑时间约束的地震救灾数学模型设计与实现

在地震救灾方面,针对信息实时更新的地震救灾数学模型,为了满足不同受灾点的物资需求,增加了出救点数量以及配送时间,以此来保证地震救援物资需求的满足度,提高了应急响应水平。结合地震救灾特点,设计了一种考虑时间约束的地震救灾数学模型。该模型在地震救灾物资需求预测部分,分析影响地震救灾物资需求量的主要因素,构建地震救灾物资需求量计算模型,对影响地震救灾物资需求量的主要因素构建隶属度函数,给出基于模糊综合评判的地震救灾物资需求分级模型。其次,考虑时间约束以及需求不确定等方面,构建考虑时间约束的地震救灾多目标优化数学模型,并给出求解模型。实验结果表明,该模型减少了救灾物资到达受灾点的延迟时间,可在满足时间约束的条件下提高物资需求满足率。     

Inferring Low Cloud Base Heights at Night for Aviation Using Satellite Infrared and Surface Temperature Data

A nighttime image product that depicts areas of the lowest cloud base heights has been developed by combining brightness temperature data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Imager InfraRed (IR) bands centered at 3.9 μm and 10.7 μm, with hourly shelter temperatures from surface observing sites and offshore marine buoys. A dependent data sample showed a good correlation between the surface temperature minus IR cloud top temperature differences versus measured cloud base heights. Histogram analysis indicated that a temperature difference of less than 4-C related to a > 50% frequency of ceilings below 1000 ft above ground level, the threshold for Instrument Flight Rules (IFR). Using this result as a model, an experimental Low Cloud Base image product was developed that highlights regions of likely IFR ceilings. Validation of the Low Cloud Base product for two separate periods resulted in Probabilities of Detection of 67% and 72% and False Alarm Rates of 6% and 11%, respectively. Some regional variation observed could be related to the relative frequency of multi-layered overcast conditions. The biggest factor leading to underdetection of IFR ceilings by the GOES Low Cloud Base product is the presence of overlying clouds, including thin cirrus contamination. The GOES Low Cloud Base product shows potential for use as guidance for aviation meteorologists over both continental and marine areas.     

砂土液化大变形本构模型的三维化及其数值实现

基于砂土液化大变形机理和适用于二维条件的边界面弹塑性本构模型,发展了符合三维应力空间中边界面和剪胀面上的应力映射规则,建立了三维应力空间中砂土液化大变形本构模型.针对模型特点采用半显式的Cutting Plane算法进行应力积分,并采用Pegasus求根算法根据映射规则计算边界面上的应力映射点,在OpenSees开源有限元平台上实现了三维模型的数值化.结合完全耦合的u-p格式有限元单元,对饱和砂土不排水循环扭剪试验进行了模拟,并进行了一个真三维倾斜地基的动力反应分析.计算结果表明模型和所采用的数值算法具有很好的模拟和分析三维条件下砂土液化后大变形的能力.     

HPPPR模型及其在地震综合预测研究中的初步应用

在综合考虑经典投影寻踪算法特点的基础上,针对投影寻踪计算中存在的一些不利因素,给出相应的解决思路.利用数值仿真技术进行基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归模型建模能力与计算精度的检验,再将其应用于多维地震时间序列综合建模预测中.计算结果和进一步分析表明,基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归投影寻踪模型具有简单、快速、有效的特点,在实际地震综合预测建模中取得了满意的效果,可作为地震综合预测的一种回归分析方法.     

基于多租户的高性能地震保险损失评估SaaS云平台设计与实现

地震巨灾风险的特点是低频高损,历史震害数据缺乏、风险暴露快速变迁等因素导致基于大数定理的费率厘定方法无法针对各区域不同建筑类型的风险暴露进行精细化定价。本文基于“五代图”潜在震源区模型的随机事件集解决观测数据不足的问题;并使用“五代图”所采用的地震动参数衰减关系模型与工程易损性方法计算地震事件对风险暴露造成的损失,从而计算费率厘定、地震风险管理需要的必备参数。本文采用云计算平台的弹性伸缩计算技术,实现动态按需分配计算资源,满足多用户并发使用的业务需求;同时采用以业务数据为单元的数据隔离方案,构建支持多租户的高性能地震保险损失评估SaaS云平台。     

New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific

In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring in- fluencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965―1999. The forecast model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period of 1965―1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000―2006. Therefore, this work demonstrates that the new pre- dictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF, which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill.     

It goes both ways: measurements of simultaneous evapotranspiration and fog droplet deposition at a montane cloud forest

Fluxes of latent heat, sensible heat, and water vapor, including turbulent deposition of fog droplets, were measured for two months in autumn 2005 within a subtropical montane cypress forest in Taiwan. The goal of the study was to determine whether significant evapotranspiration can occur during foggy conditions. Water vapor fluxes, Q_W, as determined with the Bowen Ratio method, were compared to those simultaneously measured with the eddy covariance method. The median Bowen Ratio was 1.06, and the median Q_W flux was 5 · 2 × 10^?5 kg m^?2 s^?1. The vertical gradients of temperature and specific humidity over the forest, ΔT and Δq, peaked around noon during days without fog, and were reduced during foggy conditions. For 66% of the data points, ΔT and Δq were negative, corresponding to positive (upward) fluxes of sensible heat Q_H and latent heat Q_E. A Monte Carlo simulation proved that statistically significant evapotranspiration rates, i.e., upward water vapor fluxes, occurred during fog. At the same time, deposition fluxes of fog droplets occurred. Our results show that even during fog events, significant evapotranspiration may occur. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of four hydrological models for operational flood forecasting in a Canadian Prairie watershed

The complexities of the Prairie watersheds, including potholes, drainage interconnectivities, changing land-use patterns, dynamic watershed boundaries and hydro-meteorological factors, have made hydrological modelling on Prairie watersheds one of the most complex task for hydrologists and operational hydrological forecasters. In this study, four hydrological models (WATFLOOD, HBV-EC, HSPF and HEC-HMS) were developed, calibrated and tested for their efficiency and accuracy to be used as operational flood forecasting tools. The Upper Assiniboine River, which flows into the Shellmouth Reservoir, Canada, was selected for the analysis. The performance of the models was evaluated by the standard statistical methods: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute relative error and deviation of runoff volumes. The models were evaluated on their accuracy in simulating the observed runoff for calibration and verification periods (2005–2015 and 1994–2004, respectively) and also their use in operational forecasting of the 2016 and 2017 runoff.     

Observations of a Unique Cusp Signature at Low and Mid Altitudes

Observations of a unique cusp feature at low and mid altitudes are reported. This feature has a consistent double-peaked or “V”-shaped structure at the equatorward edge of high-latitude particle precipitation flux, and is predominantly present for high IMF B_y conditions. The observations are consistent with the Crooker (‘A split separator line merging model of the dayside magnetopause’, J. Geophys. Res. 90 (1985) 12104, ‘Mapping the merging potential from the magnetopause to the ionosphere through the dayside cusp’, J. Geophys. Res. (1988) 93 7338.) antiparallel merging model, which predicts a narrow wedge-shaped cusp whose geometry depends greatly on the dawn/dusk component of the IMF. Various observations are presented at low altitudes (DE-2, Astrid-2, Munin, UARS, DMSP) and at mid altitudes (DE-1, Cluster) that suggest a highly coherent cusp feature that is consistent with the narrow, wedge-shaped cusp of Crooker (1988), and contains persistent wave signatures that are compatible with previously reported high-altitude measurements. A statistical survey of Astrid-2 and DMSP satellite data is also presented, which shows this feature to be persistent and dependent on the IMF angle at the magnetopause, as expected. Thus, the cusp signatures observed at a wide range of altitudes present a coherent picture that may be interpreted in terms of a footprint of the magnetopause current layer.     

Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound,Alaska

A coastal ocean extended Prince William Sound nowcast/forecast system (EPWS/NFS) has been running semi-automatically for an extended domain of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska for 2 years. To determine the performance of this modeling system, an assessment is conducted. EPWS/NFS and PWS/NFS (viz., its predecessor) nowcasts are compared with observed time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level (CSL) at a few stations, and to velocity profiles from a moored ADCP. With the extension of the model domain to include the continental shelf outside PWS and forced by an operational global ocean model (Global-Navy Coastal Ocean Model (Global-NCOM)) and a 2D tidal model at the open boundary, EPWS/NFS has achieved significant improvement over PWS/NFS, which covered only PWS per se, for most of the predicted variables in this study. In both magnitude and phase, EPWS/NFS accurately predicts the coastal tide fluctuations, as well as M2 tidal currents in Central Sound, although significant errors in coastal tides exist during some spring and neap tide cycles. Other than for the tidal motions, EPWS/NFS generally produces less energetic CSL and velocity variations than those observed. In comparison, although PWS/NFS well predicts the coastal tides, it suffers from the absence of low-frequency CSL variations, as well as misprediction of M2 tidal currents in Central Sound. For 40 h low-passed PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS velocities, significant phase error occurs during the model–date comparison period, while EPWS/NFS nowcasts generally produce less root-mean-square-error (rmse) and smaller correlations with the observations than PWS/NFS does. Both observations and EPWS/NFS have similar vertical profiles of baroclinic velocity standard deviations, but some substantial discrepancies occur in the velocity direction. Also, in the Central Sound, EPWS/NFS predicts well the SST seasonal cycle and a major cooling event during the summer 2005. However, for periods shorter than 1 week, both PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS SST underestimated the observed fluctuations by an order of magnitude.     

沈阳活断层地震危害性预测结果与分析

简述了沈阳活断层地震危害性预测中所使用的模型及计算方法,给出并分析了不同规模地震下的地震动预测结果。通过把地震动预测结果分别同现行地震安全性评价结果、国家地震动参数区划图进行比较与分析,给出了活断层地震危害性预测结果的使用条件与建议。     

地震带城市规划模型设计与仿真

传统三维城市规划模型是利用三维技术通过计算机生成模型对城市进行规划,没有考虑城市地理位置因素,不能保障城市震后应急救灾工作效率。为此,构建一种新的地震带城市规划模型。通过对城市抗震防灾空间及防灾分区定义,并对其规划原则进行分析,从而为城市防灾空间规划提供依据;以此为基础,采用风险评估方法构建出地震带城市抗震防灾空间规划的基本模型。实验结果表明,所设计模型性能极佳,考虑到了城市地理因素,在进行城市规划的同时,能够促进城市震后应急救灾工作的高效运行。