南海在1997/1998年El Ni(~n)o事件后的异常变化

基于NOAA OISST.V2月平均SST资料和FSU月平均风应力资料对南海的SST和风场异常进行了分析,发现:南海对1997/1998年El Nino事件响应最为强烈,并在1997/1998年冬季和次年的夏季SST存在2个异常高峰值,风速存在2个异常减小的极值.为研究南海环流在1997/1998年的异常变化,利用ECOM水动力模型计算了1995-2000年的南海环流场,分析了1998年1月和8月南海水位和环流的异常分布,二者均存在显著的异常:①1月,整个南海海盆为正的水位异常,流场为反气旋异常环流,冬季控制整个南海海盆的气旋式环流减弱;②8月,南海海盆水位为正异常,特别是越南东部海区出现较强的正水位异常,南海南部的高水位中心扩大北移;异常流场表现为南部为气旋式异常环流,北部为反气旋的异常环流,且在越南东部海区形成非常强的反气旋异常环流中心,使得控制南海南部的反气旋环流和北部的气旋环流均减弱.风应力的分析表明,风应力旋度的异常变化是南海环流年际异常变化的主要因素.     

1961—2016年东北地区冬季寒潮事件变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应

利用东北地区1961—2016年164个气象台站逐日平均气温和最低气温数据,根据国家标准《寒潮等级》（GB/T 21987—2017）的单站冷空气等级,计算近56年来各单站不同等级冷空气过程的频次、强度、持续日数,应用趋势系数、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、相似系数等统计方法,研究了东北地区三种类型寒潮（超强寒潮、强寒潮、寒潮）的气候变化特征。结果表明：三种类型寒潮日数空间分布存在明显的地区差异,高海拔地区相对偏多,低海拔和平原地区相对偏少。年尺度上,1961—2016年三种类型寒潮日数和站次呈减少趋势,减少速率呈现为超强寒潮＞强寒潮＞寒潮;年代尺度上,三者均在20世纪60年代到70年代末期相对偏多,1980年开始进入一个相对偏少的时段,21世纪00年代中期以后有小幅度增加;寒潮日数和站次均存在明显的3~5 a短周期性变化。1961—2016年东北地区冬季气温在空间变化上全区呈一致的增加趋势,66%的站点增温显著,检测到冬季气温的突变点为1981年。东北地区气候变暖后,三种类型寒潮日数和站次均有明显的减少。     

深海沉积与全球变化研究的前缘与挑战

海洋正在经历变暖和酸化等人类活动引发的全球变化的影响,而深海沉积储存着地球演变历史时期由自然因素驱动过去全球变化的详细档案,通过探究其现今和过去全球变化过程,能够揭示全球变化的特征和规律,为预测未来变化提供依据。近年来在该领域的突出研究进展,是针对社会选择的未来排放轨迹,在深海记录中都能够找到相应的类似情形,用于评估未来地球系统各种变化的过程和后果。其中,以Dansgaard-Oeschger变化为代表的千年尺度事件、以厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)为代表的十年尺度气候变化事件,是最接近现今地球变暖的快速气候变化场景。地球系统的发展轨迹目前正处于人类排放温室气体的“热室地球”路径的起点上,如果地球超过了这个“临界点”,它将沿着一条不可逆的道路进入“热室地球”状态,另一种路径则是通向“稳定地球”状态。深海沉积档案中的类似情形能够为社会选择未来排放的轨迹提供重要参考。全球变化研究面临的重大挑战是重新认识其关键过程的理论机制。以海洋变暖和酸化影响硅藻和颗石藻的海洋生物泵过程为例,传统知识认为酸化有利于硅藻建造,但最新的围隔实验研究却发现酸化大幅减少全球硅藻输出;传统知识认为酸化导致海洋生物钙化危机,但近期针对中生代大洋缺氧事件的黑色页岩研究,发现颗石藻的碳酸钙输出在海洋酸化期间大幅增加。这些颠覆性的认识严重挑战了传统全球变化某些关键过程的理论体系。     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Ni?o

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.     

气候变暖背景下阿勒泰地区寒潮活动变化特征

利用阿勒泰地区7个气象台站1961-2012年逐日气温资料,采用线性趋势法、Morlet小波分析和相关分析方法分析了阿勒泰地区寒潮频次的气候变化特征和大气环流指数特征.结果表明:阿勒泰地区寒潮次数接近于强寒潮次数的2倍,阿勒泰地区寒潮和强寒潮的月际分布均为单峰型,11月-翌年2月是寒潮集中发生期,9月和5月寒潮很少.近52 a来阿勒泰地区寒潮和强寒潮次数均表现为减少的趋势,且寒潮次数的减少速率较快;寒潮和强寒潮活动偏强年和偏弱年有较好的一致性,只是强寒潮频数偏强、偏弱的年份较少.寒潮和强寒潮距平指数序列存在多时间尺度结构,并存在着明显的年代际尺度的周期性变化.相关分析表明大气环流特征量与阿勒泰地区寒潮日数具有较好的对应关系.     

南海北部1987～1988年颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性变化:季风气候与El Nio的响应

南海北部１９８７年９月～１９８８年１０月沉积物捕获器中颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性 变化受到季风气候的控制。颗粒物质与硅藻在东北和西南季风盛行期增加，在季风转变期减 少。浅层和深层的颗粒总通量、蛋白石通量、碳酸钙通量、蛋白石／颗粒总通量比值、碳酸钙／颗 粒总通量比值、有机碳／磷的比值以及浅层硅藻Ｔｈａｌａｓｓｉｏｎｅｍａ ｎｉｔｚｓｃｈｉｏｉｄｅｓ、Ｃｏｓｃｉｎｏｄｉｓｃｕｓ ｅｘｃｅｎｔｒｉｃｕｓ、Ｃｏｓｃｉｎｏｄｉｓｃｕｓ ｎｏｄｕｌｉｆｅｒ、Ｎｉｔｚｓｃｈｉａ ｍａｒｉｎａ和Ｒｈｉｚｏｓｏｌｅｎｉａ ｂｅｒｇｏｎｉｉ的通量在东北 季风期间明显地增加了，这些变化可能与１９８７年～１９８８年发生的ＥＩ Ｍｉ　ｏ事件相关。     

气候变暖情景下黄河上游径流的可能变化

根据水文气象台站观测资料, 分析了全球变暖情景下黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域温度、降水和径流的变化状况, 并采用假定气候组合对未来数十年黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域的径流变化进行了预测. 结果表明: 黄河上游的温度与全球变暖有着明显的对应关系, 近几十年来, 流域各个地方的温度有不同程度的上升. 降水变化因流域各地所处位置、地势、地形的不同而差异较大, 受温度上升和主要产流区域降水大幅减少的影响, 近10余年来黄河上游的径流量呈持续递减的态势. 在未来几十年, 如果遭遇到气温升幅与降水减幅较大的"暖-干"气候组合时, 流域产水量将有较大的减幅; 当气温变化不大而降水增幅较大时, 流域产水量将有明显的增加, 同时由于冰雪及冻土融水的补给, 此气候情景下黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流量的增幅还将略大于降水量的增幅.     

1961-2005年新疆地区夏季气温的时空变化特征及其与大气环流的关系

利用1961—2005年新疆地区最为齐全的整编台站观测资料集,分析了新疆地区夏季气温的时空变化特征,并探讨了引起这种时空变化的大气环流因子.结果表明:新疆地区的夏季气温首先表现出整体一致性的变化,在过去的45a中全疆气温持续上升,这与全球变暖的大背景相一致.影响新疆全疆夏季气温变化的主要大气环流因子为贝加尔湖附近高压脊的异常,当其偏强时,新疆地区夏季气温偏高,反之则偏低.新疆地区夏季气温第二类变化模态为南、北两疆反向的特征,这种变化模态主要表现在气温的年际时间尺度上.新疆南、北两疆气温反相变化主要是由伊朗高压和乌拉尔地区高压脊的变化所控制.当这两个大气环流系统在新疆地区造成中高层位势高度南北向正负异常时,新疆地区以天山为界夏季气温表现出反向的变化特征.     

大尺度大气环流变化及其对北半球冬季温度的影响

近半个世纪来的全球温度的变化表现出有很大的空间尺度和显著的线性趋势 ,许多研究强调温室效应对全球气候变暖的影响。文中的研究表明大尺度的大气环流的变化对北半球冬季温度有很重要的影响。最近一些学者侧重北大西洋涛动 (NAO)和北太平洋涛动 (NPO)的作用 ,而NAO和NPO都是行星尺度大气环流在区域的特殊表现形式。全球西风环流系统可能具有根本性的作用。当西风环流处于高指数时期时 ,则温度偏高 ;当处于低指数时期时 ,则温度偏低。西风强度及NAO和NPO能解释近 50年来北半球冬季温度变化方差的 2 7 2 %。     

El Ni?o as a consequence of the global oscillation in the dynamics of the earth’s climatic system

During study of the physical nature and potential precursor features of the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific, it was found that a negative large-scale temperature anomaly on the Indian Ocean surface may be one of its significant precursors. This anomaly appears prior to the occurrence of El Ni?o and is accompanied by growth in atmospheric pressure. It gradually extends eastwards along the equator until the zone of planetary convection in the area of the Indonesian Region. The west wind that emerges on the eastern peripherals of the mentioned pressure anomaly leads to reversal of the Pacific segment of the Walker equatorial atmospheric circulation and to a subsequent change in the zonal thermal dipole polarity in the tropical zone of the Pacific (the latter means culmination of the El Ni?o phenomenon). In addition to the mentioned thermobaric anomaly in the Indian Ocean, other obvious signs of large-scale pressure anomalies have been found in the global atmospheric pressure field; these anomalies may be interpreted as manifestations of the intradecadal global oscillation in the dynamics of the modern climatic system. It is suggested that the whole known complex of events related to the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific is a consequence and a regional link of the planetary structure of this global atmospheric phenomenon.     

Winter and summer monsoons and the navigation in East Asia in historical age

In order to make clear a problem in the human impact on the East Asian monsoons, navigation in the period from the 7th century to the 19th century was studied from the standpoint of historical climatology. 1. are described the periods of winter and summer monsoons over East Asia in relation to the division of the natural season. 2. based on the characteristics of the wind direction and velocity during the monsoons, it is shown that the winter monsoon is extremely unfavorable for navigation in contrast to the favorable summer monsoon. 3. statistical results on the possible frequency of navigation over the East China Sea by small boats are dealt with according to the meteorological records. 4. it is indicated that the navigations of the missions between Japan and China, Korea or Po Hai in the 7th – 9th centuries showed clear relations to the monsoon seasons. Lastly, the navigation mainly in 17th, 18th and 19th centuries around Ryukyu Islands, on the Chinese coast and the Japanese Islands are mentioned in detail. Even in this period the winter monsoon affected strongly on the navigation, that is, sailing and entries kept away the winter monsoon season almost completely.     

The birth of El Niño: Geoarchaeological evidence and implications

The oceanographic phenomenon known as El Niño is the subject of intensive recent study. Any hypotheses regarding physical causes and predictability of El Niño should consider its geological history. New geoarchaeological evidence suggests that the El Niño phenomenon did not exist along the northern and central coasts of Peru before about 5000 years B.P. Molluscan faunas from archaeological sites at Pampa las Salinas and Salinas de Chao permit temporal bracketing of a major structural change in the East Pacific water mass. The boundary between the warm Panamic Province and the cold Peruvian Province, which today occurs at about 5 degrees south latitude, was some 500 km further south from at least 11,000 years B.P. to about 5000 years B.P. This conclusion is corroborated by many other lines of evidence including phosphorite distribution, timing of glacial retreat, sea level change, radiolarian, diatom and fish scale distributions, and beach ridge patterns. The present day arid coastal climate of north central Peru is probably a post-5000 year B.P. development. Hunter–gatherer populations of the area would most likely have exploited more land-based seasonal resources from grasslands and forests before 5000 years B.P., and relied less upon the diminished productivity of warm water maritime resources.     

El Niño and sea level anomalies: a global perspective

The anomalous weather patterns observed world-wide associated with El Niño are often accompanied by changes in local sea levels. Sea level anomalies are transmitted through various oceanic and atmospheric pathways and data suggest that this effect is currently on the order of tens of centimetres in some areas both within and outside of the equatorial Pacific. Positive sea level anomalies either generated or enhanced by El Niño have been linked to powerful storm waves and coastal flooding.     

自组织特征映射神经网络在厄尔尼诺事件检验中的应用

对厄尔尼诺事件多因素成因进行了分析。利用自组织特征映射（SOFM）神经网络方法对1973～1994年的全球7级以上地震次数、日食条件、海温距平数据建立了SOFM网络检验模型。对1995~2000年厄尔尼诺事件进行了检验,检验的准确率为83.3% 。     

The beach ridges at Santa,Peru: El Niño,uplift, and prehistory

Recent work on the beach ridges at Santa, Peru (9° s latitude) upholds an earlier hypothesis, based on sedimentary evidence, that the ridges were formed by massive sediment pulses during rains associated with major incursions of the warm water El Niño countercurrent. The ridges can therefore be used to date major El Niño events. The alternate hypothesis for the Santa ridge origin cited minor sequential uplift as the causal factor; this hypothesis has been disproven, though one previously unreported uplift event at about 4200 years B.P. has been identified at Santa. In general, landscape alteration processes such as El Niño floods and tectonic uplift affect human populations, and accurate chronologies of these events are necessary to interpret the archaeological record. Geoarchaeological research offers the key to constructing landscape alteration chronologies, which are also of use to geologists for studies of earthquake prediction, sedimentation processes, and paleoclimatology.     

Origin of the Cenozoic–Mesozoic magnetite-series and ilmenite-series granitoids in East Asia

Among the Phanerozoic granitoids of East Asia, the most prevailing Cenozoic–Mesozoic rocks are reviewed with respect to gabbro/granite ratio, bulk composition of granitoids, redox state, and O- and Sr-isotopic ratios. Quaternary volcanic rocks, ranging from basalt to rhyolite, but typically felsic andesite in terms of bulk composition in island arcs, are oxidized type, possibly due to oxidants from subducting oceanic crust into the source regions. Miocene plutonic rocks in the back-arc of Japan could be a root zone for such volcanism but are more felsic in composition. Cenozoic–Mesozoic plutonic zones are classified by (1) the redox state (magnetite/ilmenite series), and (2) average bulk composition (granodiorite/granite). The granodioritic magnetite series occur with fairly abundant gabbro and diorite in the back-arc of island arcs (Greentuff Belt) and intercontinental rapture zones (Yangtze Block). These rocks are mostly juvenile in terms of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶SrI and δ¹⁸O values.The granitic magnetite series with some gabbroids occur in rapture zones along the continental coast (Gyeongsang Basin, Fujian Coast) and the back-arc of island arc (Sanin Belt). They were generated mostly in felsic continental crust, with the help of heat and magmas from upper mantle. The generated granitic magmas had little interaction with C- and S-bearing reducing materials, due probably to extensional tectonic settings. The δ¹⁸O value gives narrow ranges but the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶SrI ratio varies greatly depending upon the age and composition of the continental crust. Granitic ilmenite-series are characterized by high δ¹⁸O values, implying much contribution of sediments. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶SrI ratios are low in island arcs but very high in continental interior settings. Amount of mafic magmas from the upper mantle seems a key to control the composition of granitoid series in island arc settings, while original composition of the protolith may be the key to control granitoid composition in continental interiors.     

Ocean Plate Stratigraphy in East and Southeast Asia

Ancient accretionary wedges have been recognised by the presence of glaucophane schist, radiolarian chert and mélange. Recent techniques for the reconstruction of disrupted fragments of such wedges by means of radiolarian biostratigraphy, provide a more comprehensive history of ocean plate subduction and successive accretion of ocean floor materials from the oceanic plate through offscraping and underplating.Reconstructed ocean floor sequences found in ancient accretionary complexes in Japan comprise, from oldest to youngest, pillow basalt, limestone, radiolarian chert, siliceous shale, and shale and sandstone. Similar lithologies also occur in the mélange complexes of the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and other regions. This succession is called ‘Ocean Plate Stratigraphy’ (OPS), and it represents the following sequence of processes: birth of the oceanic plate at the oceanic ridge; formation of volcanic islands near the ridge, covered by calcareous reefs; sedimentation of calcilutite on the flanks of the volcanic islands where radiolarian chert is also deposited; deposition of radiolarian skeletons on the oceanic plate in a pelagic setting, and sedimentary mixing of radiolarian remains and detrital grains to form siliceous shale in a hemipelagic setting; and sedimentation of coarse-grained sandstone and shale at or near the trench of the convergent margin.Radiolarian biostratigraphy of detrital sedimentary rocks provides information on the time and duration of ocean plate subduction. The ages of detrital sediments becomes younger oceanward as younger packages of OPS are scraped off the downgoing plate.OPS reconstructed from ancient accretionary complexes give us the age of subduction and accretion, direction of subduction, and ancient tectonic environments and is an important key to understanding the paleoenvironment and history of the paleo-oceans now represented only in suture zones and orogenic belts.     

广东现代樟树树轮纤维素的碳同位素与厄尔尼诺事件的关系

本文对广东阳春河的樟树树轮纤维素△δ13C序列研究发现,厄尔尼诺对树轮C同位素的高频变化的影响有一定的滞后性,一般是厄尔尼诺强度高峰期所对应年的下一年树轮△δ13C值较低.通过谱分析发现,树轮记录的△δ13C序列变化中2～3 a周期与热带气候的"准两年振荡"(QBO)十分一致,这从另一个侧面说明了广东樟树树轮记录了大范围的ENSO信息.其中准4.57 a周期可能与影响全球气候异常的厄尔尼诺事件的周期有关,很可能就是厄尔尼诺事件引起的气候变化对树木生长影响的反映.研究表明,广东厄尔尼诺所引起的气候变化,在树轮同位素中有较好的记录.说明在热湿地区,冬季树木仍有同位素分馏,树轮δ13C依然能记录冬季气温和东亚冬季风强弱的变化.