俄乌冲突背景下“一带一路”沿线原油海运网络结构特征及变化分析

国际地缘政治对运输网络格局的影响是经济地理和交通地理的重要议题之一,探究俄乌冲突背景下“一带一路”沿线原油海运网络结构特征变化,可为该领域研究提供新的论据。文章采用AIS船舶轨迹大数据和复杂网络分析法,分析了2019—2022年“一带一路”沿线原油海运网络整体特征、节点重要性与核心边缘和组团耦合结构的变化特征,并探究了海运网络结构变化对中国原油进口稳定性的影响。结果表明：1）海运格局发生了结构性演变。港口间的联系密度、强度和网络通达性均呈现先增后减趋势;网络无标度特性不断增强,原油海运向部分主要联系集聚,出口端更加明显;俄乌冲突后中国与中东原油海运联系取代了部分中俄原油海运联系。2）海运港口重要性格局与核心边缘结构处于动态变化中。出口港综合重要性先略有降低,俄乌冲突后大幅增加;网络结构经历了单核―多核―单核的转变,俄乌冲突后国际原油市场供需格局改变,较大规模的出口港对原油海运网络中广大进口港和其他中小规模出口港的控制力明显加强。3）海运网络核心边缘与组团耦合结构前期变化稳定,后期变化突出。俄乌冲突后核心边缘与组团耦合结构在核心港、地理分布和组团规模方面发生明显变革。4）海运网络变化对中...     

鸟类“东扩”现象与地理分布格局变迁——以入侵种欧金翅和家八哥为例

鸟类善于飞行,区系组成复杂,是自然界中比较特殊的一类。依据130多年的经典文献资料,再结合30多年来动物地理学研究结果,通过在全疆范围内的实地调查,新旧分布区GPS卫星定位,在地图上点线测距,对42种鸟类(隶属11目、22科、35属)入侵或扩张的性质、路径、距离、速度进行分析和估测。新疆约有10%的种类存在明显东扩倾向,物种入侵度0.099 5,东扩距离600～1 300 km或者更远。分析原因,鸟类繁殖区域或分布区域的变化与以往的"灭四害"运动造成种群密度降低而形成"真空"地带,外来物种乘虚入侵。国人长期的捕鸟与吃鸟习惯,人们的放生行为,灭鼠和灭虫引发的真空和天敌数量锐减,持续的环境污染造成诸如麻雀(Passerspp.)、喜鹊(Pica pica)和乌鸦(Corvusspp.)绝迹,全球气候转暖改变了一些物种的迁移规律,人工绿洲扩大与相互贯穿,为外来生物扩散创造了条件。绝大多数种类属于自然扩散,约占91%,只有少数种类属于"人为引入"。71.4%的入侵种已经逐渐变成留鸟或繁殖鸟。以欧金翅(Carduelis chloris)为例,它最初只出现在伊犁谷地,在向东拓展的过程中,经历了越境、定居、繁殖、建群、扩散等一系列过程,每年东扩距离50～70 km,经过10余年已经从一个迷鸟、旅鸟、冬候鸟,变成了夏候鸟、繁殖鸟、留鸟。一些种类的扩散或入侵可能是辐射状的,在局部表现为"东扩"。受时空条件的限制,还有一些种类的扩张原因不明。在新疆,有"东扩"倾向的种类远不止这42种,一些小型鸟类,如鹨、莺、雀和鹀类等,其拓殖规模尚不清楚。由于扩张过程会遇到种种阻力,如个体之间的联系与繁殖群体数量不足,还会出现野生物种自然杂交、遗传侵蚀、基因污染和种族灭绝现象。新纪录频繁出现(约占57%)以及鸟类东扩都是环境剧烈变化的一个佐证。     

South American heartland: the Charcas, Latin American geopolitics and global strategies

Mackinder's 1904 'geographical pivot of history' concept, subsequently developed into his famous 'Eurasian heartland thesis', marginalizes South America, yet his ideas have attracted considerable interest there, including interpretations (and fantasies) of a 'South American heartland'. This paper examines the reception of Mackinder's ideas in Latin American geopolitics and how his heartland thesis was adapted for the South American context. It traces the roots of this adaptation in earlier South American geopolitical writing, and examines these ideas of counter-insurgency policies and global geopolitical strategies, analysing their relationship to military and anticommunist perspectives.     

地图投影与地缘政治理论构建——以麦金德地缘政治思想为例

地缘政治理论的提出和发展深刻烙印了地图的影响。在地缘政治发展史中,不同地图投影既服务于各思想家的理论提出,也深入到各思想家在不同时期对自身理论的动态修正。地图投影到底是如何参与到地缘政治理论构建过程中的?本文在既有地缘政治地图研究的基础上,从空间性和文本性两大地图基本属性出发,通过阐释并沟通地图的空间分析与话语分析功能,探讨地图投影与地缘政治理论构建间的关系。一方面,地图投影变形抽象后的心象地图框架为构建地缘政治理论提供了空间依托;另一方面,地图投影通过地图变形在复杂情境中聚集了丰富的文本性含义。在地图投影各层次文本性的互文（互补性叙事）下,新的地图话语得以产生并渗透进心象地图,具象式推动了地缘政治理论核心概念的生成和逻辑关系的构建。综合考虑麦金德的地图观影响,本文对麦金德“心脏地带”地缘政治思想变迁各阶段（1904年、1919年、1943年）地图投影透视的分析验证了该关系框架的解释力。这启示该分析框架在其他地缘政治理论研究中的潜在适用性,更期待在百年变局和复兴全局等交织下的复杂情境中,基于地图投影创新互文下的中国地缘政治理论构建。     

俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的地缘政治渊源与地缘战略逻辑

俄罗斯与乌克兰的地缘政治关系是国际地缘政治、国际关系学者关注的热点问题。俄乌冲突是典型的大国影响下的主权国家地缘战略选择所引发的地缘冲突问题。俄乌冲突涉及到两国的地理区位、历史渊源以及地缘博弈等复杂问题,这正是地理学,尤其是地缘政治学对解析地缘环境变化与地缘冲突的独特视角。本文借鉴“战略三角”理论建立对俄乌冲突的理论分析框架,聚焦俄罗斯与乌克兰的地缘政治渊源和地缘战略的逻辑,系统梳理了俄乌之间的政治关系、文化渊源,探讨了乌克兰的地缘环境与地缘战略选择的变化。在此基础上,从地缘政治学和国际关系学融合互鉴的视角阐述俄乌冲突的地缘政治生成逻辑,以期为大国博弈与小国安全提供新的理论认知和实践剖析。     

The demonstration effect: Natural resources, ethnonationalism and the Aceh conflict

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami brought Aceh's long-drawn separatist conflict back to international attention. Yet, the precise way in which the different aspects of the conflict entangled with resource-related grievances have remained poorly understood. Taking a political ecology approach, this paper sets out to understand the role of natural resource grievances within the complex and shifting set of mutually implicated factors leading to and sustaining the conflict from the early days of Indonesia's independence. The paper argues that the management of Aceh's natural resources – especially the rich gas and oil reserves – was not the sole or primary causal factor. Rather, state managed exploitation of natural resources had a demonstration effect, exemplifying other grievances and supporting the articulation of a separatist discourse naturalizing 'Acehnese' conceptualizations of resource entitlement. Comparing Aceh with other separatist conflicts, the paper suggests that, as conflict unfolds at the intersection of a shifting set of concerns, it is increasingly difficult to separate the underlying issues of identity, resource entitlements and human rights.     

基于合作与冲突视角的“亚洲水塔”周边国家地缘关系网络演化研究

全球暖化背景下,发源于“亚洲水塔”的国际河流水文特征的改变加剧了区域内地缘关系的紧张性,致使周边国家间地缘关系备受关注。利用新闻大数据GDELT中的合作与冲突事件表征国家间的合作与冲突关系,对1992—2018年“亚洲水塔”周边国家间地缘关系网络演化进行研究,结果表明：①研究期内,“亚洲水塔”周边国家间的地缘关系愈加紧密,区域地缘关系网络趋于稳态。②国家间合作网络逐渐呈以中国为中心的放射形结构,巴基斯坦是区域冲突网络的核心,区域内合作与冲突水平极化现象凸显。③周边国家间地缘关系互动的对等反应特征明显,地缘关系模式的演化表现出一定的时空惯性。④国际贸易格局的改变、地缘政治环境的变化、水资源战略价值重构以及地缘文化因素的潜在作用共同推动了“亚洲水塔”周边国家地缘关系网络的演化。     

The geographical pivot of history and early twentieth century geopolitical culture

This article offers a re-interpretation of the geographical pivot of history by setting it in the context of the international relations and strategic debates of the early twentieth century, and by engaging with the historiography of British foreign policy during the Edwardian period. The overall argument is that the prospective effort of Mackinder does not appear as merely speculative but is in fact rather well grounded in the fundamentals of British foreign policy and more directly relevant than hitherto assumed. Identifying a trend towards a shift in the equilibrium between land power and sea power, Mackinder emphasized – and perhaps over-emphasized – a Russian threat to British interests but considered that Germany alone only posed a minor threat. Such analysis seems to be remarkably in tune with British geopolitical culture around 1904, and with the ideas of the British Prime Minister Arthur Balfour. The way in which Mackinder further stressed that a combination of the two main continental powers would represent a major peril for Britain has hitherto been treated rather dismissively. This article however shows how twice during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–5 Wilhelm II attempted to bring such an alliance about. This article attempts to reassess the actual impact of the geographical pivot of history and more broadly of Mackinder's thought, usually considered minimal, on British foreign policy before 1914. Finally, a number of issues that seem to deserve further attention are suggested, in particular that of the influence exerted by Mackinder before 1914, and that of the genesis of Mackinder's conception of the 'pivot zone' or 'heartland'.     

南昌市土地利用的空间冲突风险评估及分区优化研究

以土地利用的导向功能为基础,将南昌市1995、2005和2015三期20种土地利用类型划分为生态生产空间、生产生态空间、生态空间和生活生产空间。利用空间复杂性指数、空间脆弱性指数和空间稳定性指数3个因子构建冲突模型,借鉴倒“U”型模型,将空间冲突分为4类：稳定可控、基本可控、基本失控和严重失控,在冲突级别的基础上利用优化产业结构、生态系统修复等措施,建立10个亚功能区,优化土地资源,缓解空间冲突,实现可持续发展。研究结果表明：①1995—2015年中南昌市三生空间格局以生产生态空间为主,其次是生态空间、生态生产空间以及生活生产空间,生活生产空间所占比例在上升,其余均在减少,呈现“一升三降”特点;②1995—2015年南昌市三生空间空间冲突愈演愈烈,严重失控单元持续增长,但2005—2015年的增长速度较1995—2005年稍慢,南昌市三生空间冲突失控态势严峻;③不同空间类型冲突存在较大差异,均以可控级别为主,其中失控级别占比由大到小：生活生产空间?生产生态空间?生态生产空间?生态空间;④利用10个亚功能区优化南昌市70%以上的区域,其中以城镇用地等为主的两个亚功能区,70%以上属于允许建设区,以滩地、湖泊、林地等为主亚功能区65%以上属于禁止建设区,符合土地利用总体规划。     

The geography of water conflict and cooperation: internal pressures and international manifestations

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies – the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa – utilizing 'event data'. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.     

Asking the right questions: environmental conflict in the case of Azerbaijan

This paper contributes an empirical test of key themes of the literature on natural resource conflict. Survey and interview data from an ongoing project in Azerbaijan provide insights into an unexpected lack of conflict in Azerbaijan related to the environment, resources and energy despite the predictions of resource conflict literature. We contend that questions about public perceptions about the environment and other daily concerns are critical if we are to understand who is likely (or unlikely) to be involved in conflict and why. The data presented in this paper demonstrate that Azerbaijani citizens rank environmental and resource issues among their immediate concerns and their top concerns for the country. However, compared to other day-to-day concerns such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and economic concerns, environment-related concerns do not appear to be sufficient to motivate widespread violent conflict or citizen dissent related to environmental or natural resource conditions.     

The impact of the friction of distance on the early settlement and development of Eyre Peninsula,South Australia

The cost of overcoming distance has played and continues to play an important role in the evolution of Australia's space‐economy. This paper examines the impact of the ‘friction of distance’, as well as the quality of the resource base, on the settlement and development of Eyre Peninsula in South Australia. A series of maps portraying the spread of pastoralism and then agriculture on Eyre Peninsula reveals clearly the importance of ‘accessibility’ in influencing the pattern and timing of settlement. It was not until well into this century that all the potentially agricultural land in the interior was occupied, for this required the construction of a railway and water pipeline up the centre of the peninsula.