Sectoral Shifts and Occupational Migration in the United States

Abstract

This research is grounded in notions of differential economic restructuring across employment sectors and geographic space, as well as migration selectivity by occupation. A series of unconstrained competing-destinations models were employed to analyze the response by workers in thirteen occupational categories to sectoral employment change, average wages, and distance. As was hypothesized, workers in occupations that require high levels of education and skills are more responsive, in terms of migration, to economic opportunities in alternative labor-market areas. However, the results do not support the hypothesis that highly educated and skilled workers migrate longer distances. Further investigation suggests that opportunities for highly educated and skilled workers may be clustering in relatively few areas that are in relatively close proximity.     

Regional Variation in Mobility Levels and Timing in the United States

The age patterns of U.S. internal migration, while examined extensively at the national level, have not been fully explored at the regional scale. This study examines, using 1985 - 1990 census data, the state-level variations in two aspects of lifecycle mobility: the mobility level, or the average number of moves made over the lifecycle, and the mobility timing, or the age at which half the lifetime moves are completed. It further delineates typologies of states based upon their age structure of mobility. The study found that regional patterns in the mobility level showed some evidence of the Snowbelt-Sunbelt patterns that characterized economic restructuring in the 1980s. Geographic patterns of mobility timing were less clear; however states in the West and the South showed somewhat more young distributions than the other regions. Further, there was a statistically significant relationship between mobility levels and timing: states with higher mobility levels also exhibited older mobility profiles, as a consequence of disproportionately high elderly mobility rates. The study highlights the regional differences in mobility behavior, and the interplay between the “how much” and the “when” of mobility.     

Regional Variation in Mobility Levels and Timing in the United States

The age patterns of U.S. internal migration, while examined extensively at the national level, have not been fully explored at the regional scale. This study examines, using 1985 ‐ 1990 census data, the state‐level variations in two aspects of lifecycle mobility: the mobility level, or the average number of moves made over the lifecycle, and the mobility timing, or the age at which half the lifetime moves are completed. It further delineates typologies of states based upon their age structure of mobility. The study found that regional patterns in the mobility level showed some evidence of the Snowbelt‐Sunbelt patterns that characterized economic restructuring in the 1980s. Geographic patterns of mobility timing were less clear; however states in the West and the South showed somewhat more young distributions than the other regions. Further, there was a statistically significant relationship between mobility levels and timing: states with higher mobility levels also exhibited older mobility profiles, as a consequence of disproportionately high elderly mobility rates. The study highlights the regional differences in mobility behavior, and the interplay between the “how much” and the “when” of mobility.     

Economic Freedom,Migration, and Income Change in the United States: 1995 to 2010

Migration is primarily motivated by economic reasons, but people also move for a variety of other purposes, including a desire for political and economic freedom. Although freedoms are often thought of as dominant reasons for international migration in political states with federal systems of governments, migration across internal political borders also takes place to take advantage of local differences in political and economic regulations, taxes, and public goods. Using the combined Internal Revenue Service/Census Bureau state-to-state migration data for 1995 to 2010, we examine the relationship between economic freedom and migration and its impact on state-level income change. We find that economic freedom is positively associated with income change due to net migration but not associated with gains or losses from income differences between in- and outmigrants. In general, states with higher or lower levels of economic freedom gained or lost income due to migration.     

基于新经济地理学的中国省际劳动力迁移机制研究

改革开放以来,中国非农产业和迁移劳动力向东部沿海地区同向集中的态势持续强化。利用1982-2010年全国4次人口普查和3次人口抽样调查提供的劳动力就业和省际迁移数据,对省际劳动力迁移机制的实证分析验证了新经济地理学模型中前向联系的存在性,即市场进入性引导下的劳动力迁移是中国产业集聚累积循环过程的基本动力。研究结果表明,随着市场一体化和地区专业化水平的提高,市场进入性对劳动力迁移的影响度逐渐提升。不仅是迁入地工业品的可获得性,其周边地区工业品的供给规模对迁移决策的影响也日益提高,由此导致了中国工业和迁移劳动力在东部沿海地区的连片集中。因此,推进市场一体化和生产专业化,提高市场进入性,是促进产业地理集中和区域协调发展的基本战略措施。     

Structural Determinants of Occupational Shifts for Males and Females in the U.S. Labor Market

This paper examines the effects of structural transformation on occupational shifts for socio-demographic groups. Although services add more jobs than manufacturing, shifts in manufacturing industries continue to be a source of growth in high-order white and blue collar work for males. However, for females, these industries are significant only in determining pink collar and low-order blue collar work. Similar trends are noted for advanced producer services such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Other nonmanufacturing sectors with relatively stable product markets and strong internal labor market conditions, such as construction and transportation, continue to be significant in creating a range of jobs for males. Although males are faced with reduced opportunities following the loss of manufacturing jobs, male-female differentials prevail in the labor market; males continue to fill high-order jobs in services, and females cluster in low-order occupations and in sectors with volatile product markets.     

Structural Determinants of Occupational Shifts for Males and Females in the U.S. Labor Market

This paper examines the effects of structural transformation on occupational shifts for socio-demographic groups. Although services add more jobs than manufacturing, shifts in manufacturing industries continue to be a source of growth in high-order white and blue collar work for males. However, for females, these industries are significant only in determining pink collar and low-order blue collar work. Similar trends are noted for advanced producer services such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Other nonmanufacturing sectors with relatively stable product markets and strong internal labor market conditions, such as construction and transportation, continue to be significant in creating a range of jobs for males. Although males are faced with reduced opportunities following the loss of manufacturing jobs, male-female differentials prevail in the labor market; males continue to fill high-order jobs in services, and females cluster in low-order occupations and in sectors with volatile product markets.     

Ethnic Restructuring in Rural America: Migration and the Changing Faces of Rural Communities in the Great Plains

Scholars have long documented widespread aging and depopulation of rural communities in the Great Plains. Paralleling these trends is the emergence, growth, and spatial dispersion of new and longtime non-white populations across the region. The dual processes of population loss in many counties combined with the growth of new, non-white population groups suggest that the ethnic structure of the population is changing. In this article we utilize choropleth maps, Hoover and Simpson indexes, and cluster analysis to assess whether the emergence and growth of ethnic minority groups in the Great Plains between 1970 and 2008 is a localized phenomenon or region-wide shift in the ethnic composition of the population. Results suggest that as depopulation is occurring in many counties of this region, the growth of non-white populations, both immigrant and native born, is changing or restructuring the ethnic composition of the Great Plains.     

Migration Propensities,Patterns, and the Role of Human Capital: Comparing Mexican,Cuban, and Puerto Rican Interstate Migration, 1985–1990

This paper expands the human capital model to compare the migration propensities of Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans within the U.S. between 1985 and 1990. Using the 5% PUMS from the 1990 U.S. Census, both aggregate migration streams and micro‐level migration propensities are estimated for Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans. The effects of personal factors, the economic environment, and the presence of fellow nationals are examined in the context of larger geographic patterns, and discussed in terms of each nationality's immigration history and cultural context. While many factors effect migration behavior similarly, there are notable differences in the way education, English fluency, and unemployment rate affect migration propensity of the native‐born and foreign‐born of each nationality. Differences are also apparent at the macro‐level. Puerto Ricans show signs of dispersing out of New York; Mexicans are redistributing within the Southwest; and Cubans are re‐concentrating in Florida. Both levels of analysis point to how immigration history, settlement patterns, and cultural context influence migration behavior. The results demonstrate the benefits of using an expanded human capital approach to explain migration differences, and highlight the diversity of population redistribution occurring within Hispanic nationalities.     

Occupational and Industrial Diversification in the United States: Implications of the New Spatial Division of Labor*

Traditionally, industrial diversification has been stressed as a tool for achieving economic growth and development. The literature on the spatial division of labor also incorporates the importance of occupational structure while recognizing the continued role of industrial structure. This paper examines the changing association between industrial and occupational diversification and the associations of industrial and occupational diversification with indicators of the business environment. The results indicate a weakening association between the industrial and occupational employment structures over time. Industrial diversification continues to be important for economic development but occupational diversification operates somewhat differently. For example, a trend toward occupational diversification is associated with employment growth but with lower levels of income. This suggests that occupational diversity may not necessarily ensure job quality, and hence, the lower levels of income.     

Economic Opportunities and Internal Migration: A Case Study of Guangdong Province,China*

Economic opportunities are considered a primary determinant of human migration, but their explanatory power in Communist China has been limited because of strong government intervention in controlling migration and in planned population transfers. Since the late 1970s, however, economic reform has brought about changes in China's regional economies and generated new push and pull forces for migration, and the relaxation of migration restrictions has created greater opportunities for nongovernment-induced migration. Using data primarily from the 1990 census, I review the spatial patterns of migration and the characteristics of the new migrants. A case study of Guangdong Province reveals that its attractiveness to migrants from other provinces and its intra-provincial migration patterns are attributable to differentials in per capita output and foreign investment. The findings support the argument that China has entered a new era of migration in which present and expected economic opportunities are important explanations for the volume and directions of population movement.     

Internal Migration in Decline

Internal migration rates in the United States have been steadily declining for at least twenty-five years: In 1984, 6.4 percent of the population moved between counties but by 2006—well before the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression—annual intercounty migration rates had already declined to 4.7 percent and by 2010 to 3.5 percent. Despite the implications of the migration decline, it is poorly recognized and understood. The analysis shows that over the last thirty years, three broad trends have combined to pull migration rates dramatically lower: an increase in dual-worker couples, increased household indebtedness, and the widespread rise of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The first two are probably linked, as households have responded to decreasing real income over the last quarter-century through greater female labor force participation and maintaining current levels of consumption by borrowing ever more heavily from the equity in their homes. Thus, although this analysis shows that the decline in migration rates is not directly linked to the Great Recession, the migration decline is surely linked to the broader macroeconomic shifts that gave rise to it. With respect to the role of ICTs, it is not surprising that as ICTs have transformed nearly everything else across society, their use has affected migration rates. It is presumed that ICTs are providing new forms of mobility that are substituting for migration.     

制造业重构背景下的中国经济地理研究转向

改革开放诱发了以市场化、全球化和分权化为特征的首轮制造业重构,劳动密集型制造业快速发展,尤其在中国沿海地区形成大量外向型产业集聚,并由此构成“旧”经济地理格局。进入21世纪,“旧”经济地理格局的弊端凸显,加上外部变化的冲击,催动了以“向上走”、“向西走”和“走出去”为主的第二轮产业重构,全球化、区域化和地方化的共同作用形成了“新”经济地理格局。制造业地理格局的剧变使得中国经济地理相关研究亦发生巨大转向,重心逐渐从关注市场化、全球化和分权化过渡到产业升级、转移和去地方化等要点。中国相关研究不仅验证西方经典理论,同时对改进西方理论亦有重大贡献,尤其在对制度政策、国内市场、中国企业的能动性在产业重构中的作用等方面极大弥补了经典经济地理学的缺陷。本文最后还就经典理论的整合和研究方法的普适性对相关研究进行了展望。     

The Migration of Partnered Gays and Lesbians between 1995 and 2000

This research investigates the interregional migration of partnered gays and lesbians between 1995 and 2000 as the first attempt at understanding the determinants of gay and lesbian migration using data from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. Briefly, the findings are as follows. Both partnered gays and lesbians are regionally distributed throughout the United States consistent with the geographical distribution of the entire U.S. population. However, the shifting location of the partnered gay and lesbian population between 1995 and 2000 demonstrates significant variability. The general conclusion to be reached from models of the net migration of the partnered gay and lesbian population in that period is as follows: Partnered gay migration is directed toward moderate‐sized urban regions rich in natural amenities without regard for tolerance toward gay lifestyles or the absolute or relative size of the partnered gay community. Partnered lesbian migration is focused on less‐populous regions with a large, existing, partnered lesbian population. The role of natural amenities, the tolerance for lesbian lifestyles, and population density are not significant in determining partnered lesbian migration. The only trait partnered gay and lesbian migrations have in common is in their move toward less populous regions.     

Going Home: The Migration of Puerto Rican-Born Women from the United States to Puerto Rico*

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

Locational Concentrations of Military Retirees in the United States*

This county-level study examines the locational concentrations of the 1.6 million military retirees in the United States. Maps and multiple regression analysis suggest a strong association between concentrations of military retirees in a county and amenity- and military-related factors. In particular, proximity to a military base, mild winters, and coastal locations attract the military retiree. When counties are grouped by the age of the retirees, the proximity to bases becomes more closely associated with the younger military retirees, while climate and amenity factors are more important for the older retirees. These findings could prove useful in projecting locational preferences of the older more mobile population of the United States.     

水库移民中安置性移民与开发性移民的比较研究

建国以来, 中国水库移民安置经历了一个从安置性移民向开发性移民转变的过程。分析比较研究两类移民的本质差别, 有助于认识和掌握社会主义市场经济条件下开发性移民的基本规律性。遵循规律, 探讨问题, 促进开发性移民健康发展。     

贵州省生态移民经济可持续发展研究

贵州实现全面小康的难点在于生态移民。本文以贵州省为研究区域,采用现场调查、统计分析的手段,探讨影响生态移民经济可持续发展的因素。研究表明,生态移民搬迁以后的家庭收入水平、家庭债务负担、就业状况、培训状况、子女就学状况及医疗卫生状况等与其实现经济可持续发展有着极为密切的关系,其中收入水平是反映移民经济可持续发展最重要的方面,家庭劳动力数量、从事的职业及是否参加过技术技能培训等因素对收入都产生了显著的影响。因此,获得持续稳定的收入来源是移民实现经济可持续发展的前提和保障,从政策上帮助移民就业,让移民参与有利于就业的技术技能培训,是实现移民可持续发展的重要途径。具体而言,一是政府、企业和移民三方联动,采取自主创业、区域劳务合作、增加城镇公益性岗位等措施有效促进移民实现就业;二是通过开展现代农业实用技术培训、针对性的岗位技能培训、文化知识道德素养提升培训等内容帮助移民提升生产方式和生活方式的转型能力。本研究为实现生态移民可持续发展提供重要的参考与借鉴。     

基于综合城镇化视角的省际人口迁移格局空间分析

采用第五、第六次全国人口普查数据,基于流出、流入“双向”视角解析人口迁移格局及演变过程;采用空间计量模型,阐释综合城镇化及各城镇化分量值对省际人口迁移影响的空间效应。研究结果表明：① 2000~2010年省际人口迁移量成倍增长,人口迁出区域空间不断扩散,迁入区域空间虽无明显变化,但内部差异性变化明显;② 省际人口迁移存在明显的空间依赖性特征,省际人口净迁入率变化明显受周边地区的正向影响;③ 综合城镇化率变化对省际人口迁入有着重要作用。④ 人口、经济和土地城镇化率变化对人口净迁入率变化具有显著影响,且经济城镇化仍为影响省际人口迁移变化的主导因素;社会城镇化率的影响并不明显。     

Temporary Migration and the Labour Market in Australia

Australia's labour market is most influenced by international migration among OECD nations, but Australian research on this issue focuses almost exclusively on permanent settlement migration. The present paper, however, demonstrates that non-permanent migration has an important impact on the Australian labour market, although such migrants are not included in standard data collections and research on migrants and the labour market. A number of data sources are utilised to estimate the labour-market impact of Working Holiday Makers, Temporary Business Entrants, Overseas Students, and New Zealand temporary migrants. It is shown that their impact is equivalent to more than 400?000 full-time jobs. However, the effect is magnified because it is concentrated in particular sectors of the economy and in particular communities within Australia. A number of issues relating to temporary migration are discussed, including the nature of its relationship with permanent migration, the effects on job training, and the implications for regional development.