The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Interannual- to Multidecadal-scale patterns of phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.     

Historical storminess and climate ‘see-saws’ in the North Atlantic region

The existence of a well-defined climate ‘see-saw’ across the North Atlantic region and surrounding areas has been known for over 200 years. The occurrence of severe winters in western Greenland frequently coincides with mild winters in northern Europe. Conversely, mild winters in western Greenland are frequently associated with cold winters across northern Europe. Whereas this ‘see-saw’ is normally discussed in terms of air temperature and pressure differences, here we explore how the climate ‘see-saw’ is reflected in records of historic storminess from Scotland, NW Ireland and Iceland. It is concluded that the stormiest winters in these regions during the last ca. 150 years have occurred when western Greenland temperatures have been significantly below average. In contrast, winters of reduced storminess have coincided with winters when air temperatures have been significantly above average in western Greenland. This reconstruction of winter storminess implies a relationship between chronologies of coastal erosion and the history of North Atlantic climate ‘see-saw’ dynamics with sustained winter storminess, and hence increased coastal erosion, taking place when the Icelandic low pressure cell is strongly anchored within the circulation of the northern hemisphere. Considered over the last ca. 2000 years, it would appear that winter storminess and climate-driven coastal erosion was at a minimum during the Medieval Warm Period. By contrast, the time interval from ca. AD 1420 until present has been associated with sustained winter storminess across the North Atlantic that has resulted in accelerated coastal erosion and sand drift.     

A singular evolutive extended Kalman filter to assimilate ocean color data in a coupled physical–biochemical model of the North Atlantic ocean

Within the European DIADEM project, a data assimilation system for coupled ocean circulation and marine ecosystem models has been implemented for the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. One objective of this project is to demonstrate the relevance of sophisticated methods to assimilate satellite data such as altimetry, surface temperature and ocean color, into realistic ocean models. In this paper, the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, which is an advanced assimilation scheme where three-dimensional, multivariate error statistics are taken into account, is used to assimilate ocean color data into the biological component of the coupled system. The marine ecosystem model, derived from the FDM model [J. Mar. Res. 48 (1990) 591], includes 11 nitrogen and carbon compartments and describes the synthesis of organic matter in the euphotic zone, its consumption by animals of upper trophic levels, and the recycling of detritic material in the deep ocean. The circulation model coupled to the ecosystem is the Miami isopycnic coordinate ocean model (MICOM), which covers the Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans with an enhanced resolution in the North Atlantic basin. The model is forced with realistic ECMWF ocean/atmosphere fluxes, which permits to resolve the seasonal variability of the circulation and mixed layer properties. In the twin assimimation experiments reported here, the predictions of the coupled model are corrected every 10 days using pseudo-measurements of surface phytoplankton as a substitute to chlorophyll concentrations measured from space. The diagnostics of these experiments indicate that the assimilation is feasible with a reduced-order Kalman filter of small rank (of order 10) as long as a sufficiently good identification of the error structure is available. In addition, the control of non-observed quantities such as zooplankton and nitrate concentrations is made possible, owing to the multivariate nature of the analysis scheme. However, a too severe truncation of the error sub-space downgrades the propagation of surface information below the mixed layer. The reduction of the actual state vector to the surface layers is therefore investigated to improve the estimation process in the perspective of sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) data assimilation experiments.