2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震前地磁谐波振幅比异常研究

近年来,地磁谐波振幅比方法在国内得到较广泛的应用,并成为一种较为有效的地震预测方法。本文利用谐波振幅比方法,对2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震震中附近台站的地磁三分量数据进行计算,并分析了各台站10~60min周期谐波振幅比值异常特征。研究发现,异常台站几乎均位于震源机制解的拉张区(P波向下的区域),具有象限分布特征;异常台站NS向谐波振幅比值变化存在分层现象,短周期(浅部)的变化与长周期(深部)变化成相反相位,从电磁学机理看,浅部与深部之间存在EW向的面电流;近震中台站的异常低点时间存在由长周期(深部)向短周期(浅部)迁移的现象。     

On a possible origin of the anomalous effects that were observed during the May 24, 2013 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

The deep-focus Sea of Okhotsk earthquake that occurred on May 24, 2013 (h = 630 km, M _w = 8.3) was accompanied by anomalous effects that were unknown previously. A combined analysis of published data concerning the source rupture evolution and some features of the deep structure provided an explanation of some anomalous effects, such as the large number of aftershocks and the low level of ground shaking in the epicentral area. However, GPS observations revealed high coseismic vertical displacements in the area. The seafloor uplift in the Sea of Okhotsk and the adjacent coasts was 3–12 mm, peaking at the approximate center of the sea, while Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands subsided by 3–18 mm, peaking at the Apacha station 190 km east of the earthquake epicenter. These maximum estimates are 1.2–1.8 times the analogous values (10 mm) for the Chile mega-earthquake of May 20, 1960 (M _w ~ 9.5). It is known that the large distances at which ground shaking is felt during deep-focus earthquakes are due to the fact that the body waves travel through the high-Q lower mantle. However, this does not explain the paradox of the present earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk, viz., a constant intensity of shaking (two grades) in the range of epicentral distances between 1300 and 9500 km. The explanation requires consideration of the earth’s free oscillations excited by the earthquake.     

唐山7.8级强震前震中周围形变电阻率的下降异常

1976年7月28日唐山7.8级强震前,北京、天津、唐山地区已布设14个形变电阻率观测台站,其中9个台,震前2-3年内记录到形变电阻率长趋势下降异常,这9个台围绕震中形成一个半长轴可达150公里的异常区.位于震中区的两个台还记录到临震前2-3个月内的加速下降异常.根据现场条件下地表浅部岩（土）层受压时,视电阻率下降的实验结果,认为在震中周围较大的区域内,震前浅部岩（土）层被压密,其压缩线应变的数量级约为3×10^-5.这一认识得到唐山震前地面基线实测资料的支持.     

The Boumerdes (Algeria) earthquake of May 21, 2003 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.8): Ground deformation and intensity

A destructive earthquake of magnitude M_w = 6.8 hit the region of Boumerdes and Algiers (Algeria) on May 21, 2003. This is among the strongest seismic events of the mediterranean region and the most important event in the capital Algiers since 1716. It caused a widespread damage in the epicentral region, claimed 2271 human lives, injured 10000, about 20000 housing units affected and left about 160000 homeless. The main shock was felt about 250 km far from the epicenter and triggered sea waves of 1–3 m in amplitude in Balearic islands (Spain). Based on field observations and press report an intensity IX (MSK scale) is attributed to the epicentral area. The main shock was followed by many aftershocks among them several are of magnitude greater than 5.0, which added panic to inhabitants. The main shock triggered ground deformation, particularly liquefaction whose features are in different forms and sizes and caused damage and collapse of roads. The focal mechanism determined by worldwide institutions yield a pure reverse faulting with a compressional axis striking NE-SW. The epicenter is located offshore about 7 km from the Boumerdes-Dellys coast. Field observations show 0.7 m of coseismic uplift of shoreline between Boudouaou and Dellys. This uplift is about a half of the extracted coseismic slip from the seismic moment. On the other hand there is no clear surface break onshore, confirming hence, that the causative active fault is offshore. However, the rupture may propagate onshore to the SE near the Boudouaou region where ground cracks showing reverse faulting are observed a long a corridor of about 1 km wide. These fissures may correspond to a diffuse coseismic deformation.     

Temporal changes in electrical resistivity at Sakurajima volcano from continuous magnetotelluric observations

Continuous magnetotelluric (MT) measurements were conducted from May 2008 to July 2009 at Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in Japan. Two observation sites were established at locations 3.3 km east and 3 km west–northwest of the summit crater. At both observation sites, the high-quality component of the impedance tensor (Zyx) showed variations in apparent resistivity of approximately ± 20% and phase change of ± 2°, which continued for 20–180 days in the frequency range between 320 and 4 Hz. The start of the period of changes in apparent resistivity approximately coincided with the start of uplift in the direction of the summit crater, as observed by a tiltmeter, which is one of the most reliable pieces of equipment with which to detect magma intrusion beneath a volcano. A 2D inversion of MT impedance suggests that the resistivity change occurred at a depth around sea level. One of the possible implications of the present finding is that the degassed volatiles migrated not only vertically through the conduit but also laterally through a fracture network, mixing with shallow groundwater beneath sea level and thereby causing the observed resistivity change.     

按震兆共迁法以平凉远台地电前兆异常回顾性讨论2017年九寨沟大震的预测

2017年九寨沟7级大震前平凉台上的短临地电阻率异常甚为明显,平凉距九寨沟震中360 km。如此远的震中距离只能用"震兆共迁法"预测九寨沟大震震中。     

基于高频GNSS的2014年于田MS7.3级地震的同震位移研究

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.     

甘肃张掖MS5.0地震前山丹地电异常探讨

2019年9月16日在甘肃省张掖市甘州区发生M_S5.0地震,震前山丹地电阻率和地电场观测资料出现了较为明显的短临异常,震中距63 km。本文对该异常进行分析总结,排除周围观测环境,观测系统,自然环境,磁暴等因素外,认为该异常是较为可信的地震前兆异常。地电阻率观测资料异常形态NS测道表现为转折快速上升-缓慢下降,EW测道为转折缓慢上升,N45°W测道为缓慢下降-转折缓慢上升。地电场观测资料异常形态长极距NS道、长极距N45°E道、短极距NS道表现为转折同步缓慢上升,长极距EW道和短极距EW道转折同步缓慢下降,短极距N45°E道异常不明显。地震在异常持续过程中出现转折变化或上升(下降)速率发生改变时发生。     

Regional variations in abrupt-change sequence of georesistivity and its application in earthquake prediction

Based on fracture mechanics, large amount of practically observed data is analyzed in this paper, and it is disclosed that seismically-anomalous earthquake resistivity sudden change sequence can be observed at the earth resistivity stations around the epicenter of a strong event. The maximum sudden change in the sequence tends to shift backward with the increase of epicentral distance, while it shifts forward with the increase of the magnitude of the earthquake. The maximum sudden change also expands from the epicenter to the peripheral areas. Therefore, the authors propose that it might be possible to predict the 3 key elements of a forthcoming earthquake by using the sudden change sequence, the frequency of the sudden change, the expansion velocity of the maximum sudden change and the time-distance product. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 176–185, 1993.     

2017年精河MS6.6地震前重力变化特征分析

利用新疆地区北疆测网2015～2017年观测的共4期流动重力资料,分析研究区半年、1年尺度重力变化特征,并采用小波分解方法,对2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震前重力变化异常进行分解,分离了不同深度的重力异常。结果表明,震中附近的精河地区从2015年开始一直处于重力负值变化,同时,震中周围的重力正值变化集中区逐步向震中地区迁移,地震发生前震中以南60km处出现重力变化零值线,并且零值线两侧的重力累积变化量达到70μGal。小波分解后,4阶细节图较好地反映了精河地震前的重力异常,其与地震孕育发生有较好的对应性。     

基于断层虚位错模式讨论2008年汶川MS8.0地震前视电阻率变化

2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前,距震中450km范围内有7个视电阻率台站运行,震前记录到了不同形态和幅值的变化。本文采用断层虚位错模式,在模型中将汶川地震同震滑动位移按大小相等但方向相反的方式进行加载,计算震前产生这些同震位错所需积累的应力应变分布。计算结果表明：在100m深度,震前正应力和剪切应力主要积累区域位于龙门山断裂带两侧约100km范围内,最大应力变化量为0.5MPa;体应变积累区域与应力积累区域基本一致,最大应变值为10^-5,显示这些区域在震前存在较高的挤压应力应变积累,而在这些区域外,应力应变积累程度较低。成都台和江油台位于震前主要的应力应变挤压积累集中区域,视电阻率观测数据均为震前下降-准同震阶跃-震后回升,与震前应力应变积累-震后释放的变化形式一致,这2个台站震前的异常变化与汶川地震关系密切;而甘孜台、武都台、冕宁台、小庙台和天水台位于应力应变积累较弱的区域,其视电阻率变化与汶川地震的关联性较弱。     

漾濞县MS6.4、玛多县MS7.4地震前地电场变化分析

2021年5月21日云南漾濞县发生M_S6.4地震、5月22日青海玛多县发生M_S7.4地震,分别分析漾濞震中500 km内12个地电场台数据、玛多震中500 km内8个地电场台数据,获知:(1)漾濞地震周围罗茨等8台优势方位角在震前出现了异常变化,弥渡等4台看不出明显异常变化;盐源等7台相关系数在震前2～6个月出现了大幅度下降,元谋、苴林等5台相关系数看不出明显异常变化。(2)玛多地震周围门源等4台方位角在震前出现了异常变化,都兰等4台方位角看不出明显异常变化;门源等5台在玛多地震前2～6个月相关系数出现了大幅下降、变化范围明显变窄等现象,都兰、白水河、金银滩等3台优势方位角和相关系数都看不出明显异常变化。(3)两次地震分析中地电场优势方位角和相关系数异常变化在时间上皆具有同步或准同步性。     

Perspectives on monitoring resistivity changes with telluric signals at Parkfield, California: 1988–1999

An array designed to detect changes of resistivity in the upper 10 km of the crust has been in continuous operation since 1988. Long period (T=300–7200 s) telluric signals are recorded digitally on 5–16 km long dipoles. Telluric transfer functions are computed between field dipoles and two reference dipoles and then decomposed to examine daily fluctuations of those functions. Based on analysis of these daily fluctuations, stabilities of 0.1–0.3% are achieved. No intermediate term resistivity changes are seen associated with any of the 5 M_b>4.0 earthquakes that have occurred since 1989. Short term fluctuations are seen associated with most of these earthquakes, however. Minimum bounds on resistivity changes that could have caused the fluctuations in the telluric responses range from 1.7 to 13.0%. While these are within the ranges seen in other field studies, the statistical significance of these fluctuations is low because they also occur at many times that cannot be correlated to earthquakes. Comparison of the one potential resistivity change associated with a strain change results in a strain sensitivity that is unrealistically high. This possible resistivity change coincides spatially with a temporary variation in seismic travel time in May–June 1989, however. It is likely that many of the fluctuations in the telluric responses are random variations except for the one in 1989, and recording through the next M6 earthquake will be needed in order to detect a statistically significant resistivity change.     

九寨沟M_S7.0地震地电阻率变化时空演化分析

本文应用归一化变化速率(NVRM)方法,研究了2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震周边800km范围内25个地电阻率台站2012—2018年的连续观测数据,分析了震中区周围的地电阻率时、空演化过程.结果显示:(1)25个台站中共有14个台站在震前出现了地电阻率变化,结合本次地震震源机制等分析其时空变化,认为邻近地震破裂带的临夏、通渭、武都和宝鸡台地电阻率在震前出现了下降—折返回升型的变化,符合前人已总结的强地震前地电阻率的变化过程.(2)地震发生前震中区周围大区域内出现了地电阻率负异常变化,且以震中区为中心呈条带分布,异常区的长轴方向与地震断裂带走向或地震烈度分布的长轴方向几乎垂直,与地震主压应力轴方向吻合.本文认为九寨沟M_S7.0强震发生之前,震中区周围出现的区域性地电阻率异常空间丛集现象是很好的中期和短临前兆;地电阻率震前异常动态演化、各向异性等特征对认识本次强震发震断层活动以及震源区应力场分布有启示意义.     

云南强震前震中区水位变化特征分析

通过对2000年以来云南地区M_S≥6.0强震震中区(大姚、 永胜、 宁洱)水位观测资料的分析, 发现震中区水位在强震发生前具有一种共同变化特征, 即强震大多发生在水位上升至最高水位后的反向下降过程中。 震中区水位的这一异常共性, 有助于今后对云南强震的地点判定。 而强震震中区这种震前高水位的形成, 借助统计分析确定为降水所致。 水位上升使地壳构造应力得以积累, 水位下降使积累的应力骤然释放, 导致强震发生, 该项研究也为地球表层水运动的致震机制提供了一种解释。     

The rupture process and tectonic implications of the great 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake

We have determined the rupture history of the March 28, 1964, Prince Williams Sound earthquake (M _w=9.2) from long-period WWSSNP-wave seismograms. Source time functions determined from the long-periodP waves indicate two major pulses of moment release. The first and largest moment pulse has a duration of approximately 100 seconds with a relatively smooth onset which reaches a peak moment release rate at about 75 seconds into the rupture. The second smaller pulse of moment release starts at approximately 160 seconds after the origin time and has a duration of roughly 40 seconds. Because of the large size of this event and thus a deficiency of on-scale, digitizableP-wave seismograms, it is impossible to uniquely invert for the location of moment release. However, if we assume a rupture direction based on the aftershock distribution and the results of surface wave directivity studies we are able to locate the spatial distribution of moment along the length of the fault. The first moment pulse most likely initiated near the epicenter at the northeastern down-dip edge of the aftershock area and then spread over the fault surface in a semi-circular fashion until the full width of the fault was activated. The rupture then extended toward the southwest approximately 300 km (Ruff andKanamori, 1983). The second moment pulse was located in the vicinity of Kodiak Island, starting at 500 km southwest of the epicenter and extending to about 600 km. Although the aftershock area extends southwest past the second moment pulse by at least 100 km, the moment release remained low. We interpret the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake as a multiple asperity rupture with a very large dominant asperity in the epicentral region and a second major, but smaller, asperity in the Kodiak Island region.The zone that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake is segmented into two regions corresponding to the two regions of concentrated moment release. Historical earthquake data suggest that these segments behaved independently during previous events. The Kodiak Island region appears to rupture more frequently with previous events occurring in 1900, 1854, 1844, and 1792. In contrast, the Prince William Sound region has much longer recurrence intervals on the order of 400–1000 years.     

2022年6月1日芦山MS 6.1地震前地电阻率异常分析

利用归一化速率变化方法（NVRM）分析处理了芦山M_S 6.1地震震中距450 km范围内的成都地震基准台、冕宁地震台、红格地震台、甘孜地震台等4个台站的地电阻率观测数据,结果显示：红格地震台NS、EW测道及甘孜地震台NE测道原始数据震前出现年变趋势性下降,下降幅度为1%—3%;红格地震台NVRM曲线震前出现正异常,冕宁地震台、甘孜地震台出现负异常,曲线转折下降过程中发生芦山M_S 6.1地震。虽然整体而言提取出的地电阻率震前异常在时间上与此次地震对应关系较好,但甘孜地震台、红格地震台与此次地震震中间距离均大于300 km,提取出的异常是否为此次地震异常,还需进一步探究。     

DEEP STRUCTURE BENEATH THE 1631 CHANGDE,HUNAN M6 EARTHQUAKE AREA DERIVED FROM MAGNETOTELLURIC SOUNDING

In 1631, an earthquake of M_S6 3/4 occurred in the Taiyangshan uplift about 10km north of Changde City, Hunan Province, which is the largest destructive temblor documented in history of South China. With the economic and social development of Changde City and the expansion of the urban, it is necessary to conduct assessment of seismic hazard, including probing the deep structure beneath the region around this historical event. To this end, three magnetotelluric(MT) profiles have been carried out across the Taiyangshan area with 76 sites in 2014. Remote reference, "robust", and phase tensor decomposition techniques were used to process the acquired MT data, and the NLCG two-dimensional inversion was made to image the deep electrical structure in combination with relevant geological and geophysical data available. The images of 3 MT profiles permit to delineate the deep extension of major faults and the deep structural features of the tectonic units in the study area. The largest fault, the Xiaowupu fault shows a steep southwest-dipping with extension of tens of kilometers from the surface to the subsurface. The Shichaipo Fault presents a low-resistivity body around a depth of about 5km. The Huanxian and Dongting Lake Basins show a low-resistivity characteristic from the ground to a depth more than 10km, good-electricity layering, meaning tectonic stability, and corresponding to extensive Cretaceous and Cenozoic strata. The electrical structure of Taiyangshan uplift overall presents a high-resistivity characteristic from the surface to a depth of about 20km, which is the widest in the central Taiyang Mountains. The deep electrical structure of 3 profiles together reveal that the contact between the Dongting Lake Basin and Taiyang Mountains is obviously segmented in NS direction. It is inferred that the Xiaowupu fault is probably the causative feature of the 1631 Changde M_S6 3/4 earthquake. The deep electrical structure nearby the epicenter appears to be complex with alternating high and low resistivity, and the epicenter is located in the high resistivity zone. The low-resistance decoupling in proximity of the fault is likely responsible for the earthquake generation. The Taiyangshan uplift resides in the southwest corner of the Jianghan-Dongtinghu Basin, where differential up and down activity during Quaternary was most intense resulting in big landform contrast, forming the tectonic setting of medium-sized earthquakes in this region.     

2017—2019年松原地区4次中强地震前绥化台地电阻率异常分析

2017—2019年松原地区连续发生4次5级左右地震,在此期间距松原地区约220km的绥化地电阻率观测资料记录到了一定的异常变化。为分析震前异常与地震的关系,首先以三层水平层状模型计算了测区介质的影响系数分布,发现绥化地电阻率“夏高冬低”的反年变形态与测区的Q型电性结构有关;之后采用断层虚位错模式,以2018年松原M_S5.7地震的震源机制为例,计算了松原地区介质的变形特征,发现绥化台位于震前挤压变形增强区域,绥化地电阻率2个测道出现的下降回返变化与应力累积释放的变化形式一致;最后根据GPS数据推测,绥化台以西的地电阻率数据无显著异常,可能与东北地区的主压应变率自东向西逐渐减小有关。