基于混沌理论的时间序列区间预测

运用非参数统计的方法，作出混沌时间序列在特定概率限的区间预测，弥补了传统点预测的不足，使预测的适用性得以提高。并通过数据实证验证了该理论方法。     

Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China

Based on monOdy river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoffin the Dagnjia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48×106m3/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runoff time series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981.     

基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型

利用相空间重构技术,并借助G-P算法、C-C方法和Wolf方法从宁陵地区地下水位一维时间序列中提取Lyapunov指数,结果表明此时间序列具有混沌特征。计算了宁陵地区地下水位时间序列的关联维数、时间延迟和最大Lyapunov指数,将局域加权一阶多步预测模型应用于地下水位预测。预测表明,此模型可有效应用于地下水位时间序列的多步预测。     

Development of a new index for integrating landscape patterns with ecological processes at watershed scale

Understanding the relationship between landscape patterns and ecological processes has been a central yet challenging research theme in landscape ecology. Over the past decades, many landscape metrics have been proposed but few directly incorporated ecological processes. In this paper, we developed a landscape index, namely, location-weighted landscape index (LWLI) to highlight the role of landscape type in ecological processes, such as nutrient losses and soil erosion. Within the framework of the Lorenz curve theory, we develop this index by integrating landscape pattern and point-based measurements at a watershed scale. The index can be used to characterize the contribution of landscape pattern to ecological processes (e.g. nutrient losses) with respect to a specific monitoring point in a watershed. Through a case study on nutrient losses in an agricultural area in northeastern China, we found that nutrient losses tended to be higher for a watershed with a higher LWLI value, and vice versa. It implied that LWLI can be used to evaluate the potential risk of nutrient losses or soil erosion by comparing their values across watersheds. In addition, this index can be extended to characterize ecological processes, such as the effect of landscape pattern on wildlife inhabitation and urban heat island effect. Finally, we discuss several problems that should be paid attention to when applying this index to a heterogeneous landscape site.     

暴雨过程中不同尺度运动性质演化的比较

通过设计合适的滤波器,对2001年9月18-20日华西暴雨过程中气象探测资料进行滤波处理,提取大、中尺度运动信息.在此基础上,通过对不同尺度运动信息的诊断分析,研究暴雨过程的不同阶段大、中尺度大气运动非平衡性质的演化及其对暴雨的影响,结果表明:在暴雨发生的不同阶段,大、中尺度运动的非平衡性质变化是不一样的,中尺度非平衡强迫对暴雨落区有重要影响.     

A review of comminution age method and its potential application in the East China Sea to constrain the time scale of sediment source-to-sink process

The East China Sea(ECS) is a river-dominated epicontinental sea, linking the Asian continent to the northwestern Pacific via the large rivers originating from Tibetan Plateau. The relevant huge influx of riverine detritus has developed unique sedimentary systems in the ECS during the Quaternary, offering ideal terrestrial archives for reconstructing Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes and studying land-sea interactions. Overall, two characteristic river systems dominate the sedimentary systems and sediment source to sink transport patterns in the ECS, represented by the Changjiang(Yangtze River) and Huanghe(Yellow River) for the large river system and Taiwan rivers for the small river system. Given this, the sediments derived from both river systems bear distinct features in terms of parent rock lithology, provenance weathering and sediment transport. Previous studies mostly focus on either the ‘source' discrimination or the ‘sink' records of the sedimentary system in the ECS, while the source to sink process linking the land and sea, in particular its time scale, has been poorly understood. Here we introduce a newly-developed dating technique, the ‘comminution age' method, which offers a quantitative constraint on the time scale of sediment transfer from its ultimate source to the final depositional sink. This novel method is of great significance for improving our understanding on the earth surface processes including tectonic-climate driven weathering, and sediment recycling in relation to landscape evolution and marine environmental changes. The application of comminution age method in the ECS will provide important constraints on sediment source-to-sink process and more evidences for the construction of late Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes under these unique sedimentary systems.     

桥梁水平位移混沌特征识别与神经网络预测研究

跨海大桥系统受外界影响扰动,其变形伴有混沌现象发生.对桥梁变形监测数据实现了混沌识别,运用C-C法计算时间序列的延迟时间,用G-P方法求得最佳嵌入维数,通过求取的时间延迟和最佳嵌入维数对桥梁变形监测数据进行相空间重构,为混沌时间序列预测模型的建立奠定基础;基于RBF神经网络建立混沌时间序列预测模型,对实测数据进行桥梁变...     

Gu's function scale of ion hydration force and charge size

ImODUonON'WaterVaporChemistry"isanewsdricediscovetalandestablishedfromtraceanaly-sisinGu'slab0rat0ry(Gu,l99l;Guetal.,l99l).Gu'sFunCtionshowrthatthetracetalionconcentfutionCinwatervaporhaspositivecondationt0the,Spedcelamnadriityconstant"lastionhationpotentialIz/ionvalenceZandnegativecondationtotheionvolumeVandcoordinationnUInberN(Gu,l994).Gu'sFunCti0nC=f[(IzwrVMofthebondparameterinwatervaporcheInistrycomepondstothepotentinlenergyfunctfonZ'd/rintheSbodingerEquahonofquantumchemistry.…     

Landscape ecology: Coupling of pattern,process, and scale

Landscape ecology provides new theoretical frameworks and methodologies for understanding complex ecological phenomena at multiple scales.Studies of landscape ecology focus on understanding the dynamics of eco-logical patterns and processes,and highlight the integration of multiple disciplines.In this paper,we discussed the problems and challenges that landscape ecology is currently facing,emphasizing the limitations of current methods used to describe dynamic landscape patterns and processes.We suggested that the focus should be on the integration of ground-based observation,mobile monitoring,transect survey,and remote-sensing monitoring,as well as improved coupling of experimental and model simulations.In addition,we outlined the research frontiers in landscape ecology,including scaling,integrated pattern and process modeling,and regional synthesis.Lastly,a brief review of pat-tern-process-scale coupling studies in China was provided.We concluded by pointing out that pattern-process-scale interactions,correlations between natural,economic,and social processes,and the coupling of human and natural systems will be major research areas in landscape ecology in the future.     

基于Barnes滤波原理的降水场客观分析及尺度分离

基于Barnes滤波原理（又称高斯加权客观分析）,在进行网格点插值的同时,通过选择适当的滤波参数C、G滤去原始场中的短波噪音,使分析结果平稳光滑;另外可通过它构成一带通滤波器,根据实际需要分离出影响天气过程的各种次天气尺度,达到尺度分离的目的。以全国160个国家基准代表站1954—2006年共53a的年平均降水场为例作实例分析,并同用Grads内插函数（Oacres函数）、九点平滑函数（Smth9函数）的绘图结果进行对比分析,结果表明客观分析结果同Grads内插平滑分析结果基本相似,都能反映出我国53a年平均降水场从东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势且与实际情况相符,降水场高值中心位于长江流域及以南的华南等地区,低值中心位于黄河流域以北的广大西部地区。取不同的参数C和G得到的尺度分离后的带通滤波值,既抑止了长波,又抑制了短波,达到较好的尺度分离效果。