Conditional statistical inverse modeling in groundwater flow by multigrid methods

Due to the notorious lack of data, stochastic simulation and conditioning of distributed parameter fields is generally acknowledged as a major task in order to produce realistic prognoses for groundwater flow phenomena, thus honouring the maximum of information available. In this paper, a new conditioning approach is presented which treats the distributed parameters directly without projection onto lower dimensional spaces and preserves certain desired statistical properties by explicitly stating them as constraints for the conditioning optimization problem. Typically, the conditioning task must be performed very often and the conditioning optimization problems are highly dimensional. Therefore, a second main focus of the paper is on the presentation of efficient multigrid methods for the solution of the conditioning problems. Numerical results are given for a practical application problem. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A hybrid computational approach to formulate soil deformation moduli obtained from PLT

In this study, new empirical equations were developed to predict the soil deformation moduli utilizing a hybrid method coupling genetic programming and simulated annealing, called GP/SA. The proposed models relate secant (E_s), unloading (E_u) and reloading (E_r) moduli obtained from plate load–settlement curves to the basic soil physical properties. Several models with different combinations of the influencing parameters were developed and checked to select the best GP/SA models. The database used for developing the models was established upon a series of plate load tests (PLT) conducted on different soil types at various depths. The validity of the models was tested using parts of the test results that were not included in the analysis. The validation of the models was further verified using several statistical criteria. A traditional GP analysis was performed to benchmark the GP/SA models. The contributions of the parameters affecting E_s, E_u and E_r were analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. The proposed models are able to estimate the soil deformation moduli with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The E_s prediction model has a remarkably better performance than the models developed for predicting E_u and E_r. The simplified formulations for E_s, E_u and E_r provide significantly better results than the GP-based models and empirical models found in the literature.     

Rates of salinization by free convection in high-permeability sediments: insights from numerical modeling and application to the Dutch coastal area

Numerical modeling and dimensional analysis is used to study the salinization of thick, high-permeability aquifers by free convection from a salt source at the surface. Current understanding of this process mainly concerns the initial stages of salinization only (boundary-layer development, break-up into fingers and initial phase of finger descent). In the modeling, special attention is paid to the role of two processes in the long-term salinization rate: (1) the progressive loss of salt from fingers by lateral diffusion, and (2) the coalescence of fingers during their descent. From the numerical simulations a relationship is derived that describes the development of the horizontally averaged salinity with depth and time as a function of permeability and initial-density contrast for aquifer Rayleigh numbers up to Ra =6,000. This relationship is consistent with and provides an extension to previous generalized relationships of the rate of finger descent. Its applicability to real-world aquifers (Ra >10⁵) that include complexities due to anisotropy, heterogeneity, and mechanical dispersion is discussed. Application to the Pleistocene coastal aquifer of the Netherlands (thickness 200 m, permeability 10^-11 m²) suggests that salinization of the aquifer during historic episodes of inundation by seawater occurred within decades.

---

Resumen Se utiliza modelos numéricos y un análisis dimensional para estudiar la salinización de acuíferos potentes de alta permeabilidad por convección libre a partir de una fuente salina superficial. El conocimiento acutal de este proceso se limita a las fases iniciales de la salinización (desarrollo de la capa de contorno, creación de digitaciones y fase inicial de la progresión de éstas). En la modelación, se presta atención especial al papel desempeñado por dos procesos de salinización a largo plazo: (1) la pérdida progresiva de sal por difusión lateral desde las digitaciones, y (2) la coalescencia de las digitaciones durante su avance. A partir de las simulaciones numéricas, se obtiene una relación que describe el desarrollo de la salinidad con la profundidad y el tiempo, promediada horizontalmente, el cual depende de la permeabilidad y del contraste inicial de densidad para números de Rayleigh inferiores a 6.000. Esta relación es coherente con índices previos generalizados del avance de las digitaciones, y representa una extensión a estos. Se discute su aplicabilidad a acuíferos reales (con números de Rayleigh superiores a 105), que tienen complejidades asociadas a la anisotropía, la heterogeneidad y la dispersión mecánica. La aplicación al acuífero costero Pleistoceno de los Países Bajos (20 m de potencia y 10-11 m2 de permeabilidad) sugiere que la salinización tuvo lugar en décadas, debido a episodios históricos de inundación por aguas marinas.

---

Résumé Une modélisation numérique et une analyse dimensionnelle ont été mises en oeuvre pour étudier la salinisation d'aquifères épais et à forte perméabilité par convection libre d'une source de sel en surface. La compréhension habituelle de ce processus concerne principalement les étapes initiales de la salinisation seule (développement d'une couche limite, partition en digitations et phase initiale de développement des digitation). Dans la modélisation, une attention particulière a été portée au rôle de deux processus du taux de salinisation à long terme: (1) la perte progressive de sel dans les digitations par diffusion latérale et (2) la coalescence des digitations au cours de leur développement. À partir de simulations numériques, une relation a été obtenue qui permet de décrire l'extension de la salinité horizontalement en profondeur et au cours du temps en fonction de la perméabilité et du contraste initial de densité pour des nombres de Rayleigh de l'aquifère jusqu'à Ra =6,000. Cette relation est compatible avec ces résultats et fournit une extension des relations précédemment généralisées du taux de développement des digitations. On discute son applicabilité à des aquifères réels (Ra >105) incluant des complexités liées à l'anisotropie, l'hétérogénéité et la dispersion mécanique. L'application à l'aquifère côtier du Pléistocène des Pays-Bas (épaisseur environ 200 m, perméabilité environ10–11 m²) laisse penser que la salinisation de cet aquifère au cours d'épisodes historiques d'inondation par la mer s'est produit durant des décennies.

---