A graph deep learning method for landslide displacement prediction based on global navigation satellite system positioning

The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning. This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacement prediction method that relies on graph deep learning and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning. First model the graph structure of the monitoring system based on the engineering positions of the GNSS monitoring points and build the adjacent matrix of graph nodes. Then construct the historical and predicted time series feature matrixes using the processed temporal data including GNSS displacement, rainfall, groundwater table and soil moisture content and the graph structure. Last introduce the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS (Graph for Time Series) model to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide displacement prediction which utilizes the temporal-spatial dependency of the monitoring system. This approach outperforms previous studies that only learned temporal features from a single monitoring point and maximally weighs the prediction performance and the priori graph of the monitoring system. The proposed method performs better than SVM, XGBoost, LSTM and DCRNN models in terms of RMSE (1.35 mm), MAE (1.14 mm) and MAPE (0.25) evaluation metrics, which is provided to be effective in future landslide failure early warning.     

Evidence from physical geodesy for geodynamics in the Caribbean area

Geodynamic studies in the Caribbean consider a great deal of geophysical and geological information. Geodetic data have only been applied but little. Physical geodesy provides different parameters of the gravity field, such as geoid heights, deflections of the vertical, and gravity anomalies. As the gravity field is a function of the mass distribution within the earth, these parameters give information about mass inhomogeneities, in particular also about those correlated with geodynamics.

This paper presents some results concerning geodynamic features in the Caribbean obtained from the inversion of the gravity field into a theoretical mass distribution of the earth. The effect of irregular mass distributions in the lithosphere is separated from the global gravity field and interpreted with respect to plate tectonics. A clear correlation between the geometry of the Caribbean plate and the lithospheric part of the gravity field can be found.     

Crustal shortening in convergent orogens: Insights from global positioning system (GPS) measurements in northeast India

Deformation in active mountain belts like the Himalaya is manifested over several spatial and temporal scales and collation of information across these scales is crucial to an integrated understanding of the overall deformation process in mountain belts. Computation and integration of geological shortening rates from retrodeformable balanced cross-sections and present-day convergent rates from deforming mountain belts is one way of integrating information across time-scales. The results from GPS measurements carried out in NE India indicate that about 15–20 mm/yr of convergence is being accommodated there. Balanced-cross sections from the NE Himalaya indicate about 350–500 km of shortening south of the South Tibet Detachment (STD). Geothermobarometry suggest that the rocks south of the STD deformed under peak metamorphic conditions at ∼ 22 Ma. This indicates a geological convergence rate of ∼ 16–22 mm/yr which appears to be fairly consistent with the GPS derived convergence rates. Approximately 1.5 to 3.5 mm/yr (∼ 10–20 %) of the total N-S of the present-day convergence in the NE Himalaya is accommodated in the Shillong Plateau. In addition, ∼ 8–9 mm/yr of E-W convergence is observed in the eastern and central parts of the Shillong Plateau relative to the Indo-Burman fold-thrust belt. Balanced cross-sections in the Indo-Burman wedge together with higher resolution GPS measurements are required in the future to build on the first-order results presented here.     

Complexity measurement of regional groundwater resources system using improved Lempel-Ziv complexity algorithm

In this paper, the self-adaptive artificial fish swarm algorithm (SAAFSA) is used to optimize the coarse graining of segment numbers, which are used in the Lempel-Ziv complexity algorithm. This approach improves the Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) algorithm of equal probability coarse graining. As a case study, the complexities of monthly series of groundwater depth were analyzed at seven farms in the Hongxinglong Administration. GIS technology was used to create spatial distributions of monthly groundwater depths. A projection pursuit model based on the SAAFSA was established and used for complexity attribution analysis at selected farms with different degrees of complexity. The three selected farms, Hongqiling, 852, and Youyi, each represent a certain degree of complexity. Further analysis shows that precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and human activities are the primary factors that cause complexity variations in local groundwater depth. The results reveal the evolution of the complexity characteristics of local groundwater depth and provide scientific evidence for the need to effectively allocate regional water resources. Additionally, the proposed method can be applied in complexity analyses of other hydrologic features, as well as in research regarding nonlinear time series in economic, engineering, medical, and signal analyses.     

A local groundwater divide in a regional system

This paper presents an analytical solution of a groundwater flow problem involving a local drainage system embedded in a regional system. As an extension of the usual complex variable methods it combines the planes of the hodograph and the Zhukovsky function. This combination of basic parameters appears to be useful for problems involving a free water table and horizontal potential lines. The solution may elucidate the relation between local and regional water divides.     

Analysis of pathfinder SST algorithm for global and regional conditions

As part of the Pathfinder program developed jointly by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) a large database ofin situ sea surface temperature (SST) measurements coincident with satellite data is now available to the user community. The Pathfinder Matchup Database (PMDB) is a multi-year, multi-satellite collection of coincident measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and broadly distributed buoy data (matchups). This database allows the user community to test and validate new SST algorithms to improve the present accuracy of surface temperature measurements from satellites. In this paper we investigate the performance of a global Pathfinder algorithm to specific regional conditions. It is shown that for zenith angles less than 45°, the best-expected statistical discrepancy between satellite and buoy data is about ∼ 0.5 K. In general, the bias of the residuals (satellite — buoy) is negative in most regions, except in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas, where the residuals are always positive. A seasonal signal in SST residuals is observed in all regions and is strongest in the Indian Ocean. The channel-difference term used as a proxy for atmospheric water vapor correction is observed to be unresponsive for columnar water vapor values greater than 45 mm and high zenith angles. This unresponsiveness of the channels leads to underestimation of sea surface temperature from satellites in these conditions.     

Historical changes of the regional and global hydrological cycles

The gradual accumulation of the Earth's hydrosphere, the land-to-water ratio, the periodic change of orogenesis and peneplanization stages, the timely and spatial change of the incoming solar energy determined the periodic changes of the major global hydrological cycles with the development of continental glaciations and permafrost of great pluvial epochs of a global warming in the geological past.Within a relatively short historical period various reasons for periodic and non-periodic heat and water transfer have led to changes in the hydrological cycle and to land moisture fluctuations.At present global hydrological processes are going through quite drastic changes as a result of the fluctuations of a number of geophysical processes (natural energy factors, in the first place). The global warming of the climate has resulted in the increase in the intensity of surface water exchange, in the drying up of continents and in the filling of the World Ocean. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the anthropogenic impact on water balance by the strenghthening of hydrologic exchange and the slowing down of river water exchange.     

区域地质调查标准体系研究

地质填图是一项旨在查明国家基本地质情况的超前性、公益性、战略性、多用途的基础性地质工作,为资源勘查、环境保护、工程建设、城市规划、国土开发利用、地球科学发展等提供重要支撑。完善的技术标准是区域地质调查的重要技术保障。中国的地质填图技术标准经历半个多世纪的发展,形成了基本完善的技术标准体系。随着经济与科技的发展,当前地质填图技术标准未能与实际工作同步跟进,出现技术标准难以满足当前地质填图工作需求、地质填图标准不统一、标准体系不完善等问题。在新形势下,根据中国半个多世纪以来地质填图技术标准体系的发展经验,学习国外发达国家先进的地质填图理念、方法和标准,结合中国地质填图工作实际状况与需求,在分析梳理地质填图标准的基础上,提出地质填图标准体系框架和推进地质填图标准更新与完善的建议,以满足现代地质填图需求。     

A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada

Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.     

区域生态系统健康评价指标体系构架--以广东省生态系统健康评价为例

探讨了区域生态系统健康指标选择原则。从区域的河流和陆地两方面确定指标体系,根据生态系统层次性,采用多目标多层次模糊优选模型。以广东省为例,在广东省分生态小区的基础上,对各区的生态环境进行了评价与比较排序,通过综合优属度给出了生态系统健康状态。     

区域水资源系统动力学特征分析

对南水北调中线工程河南受水区水资源系统动力学特征进行了分析研究,给出了各子系统动力学特征指标和水循环之间的定性关系,揭示了各子系统的分形特征、复杂程度和演化规律.结果表明,该水资源系统具有明显的分形结构和混沌特征,为一个非线性系统,且系统演化存在一个奇异吸引子;从大气降水-地表水-浅层地下水-深层地下水水循环角度看,该系统的开放程度和受外界干扰的程度逐渐减小;从大气降水-地表水-浅层地下水的水循环角度看,该系统的复杂程度符合水资源系统的一般情况.分析成果对该区寻求改善水资源系统行为的机会和途径具有重要参考价值.     

A global geotectonic reference system inferred from Genozoic tectonics

A system of spherical coordinates with special reference to the major active tectonic features of the earth is presented. This geotectonic reference network, or geo-net, is defined by the Pacific Pole P at 170°W/0°N and the African Pole A at 10°E/0°N (Fig. 1). With respect to the geo-net geo-latitudinal and geo-longitudinal oceanic ridges, ridge segments and transform faults may be distinguished, the former trending parallel to the small circles, the latter parallel to the great circles of the geo-net (Fig. 3). Generally the great circles run perpendicularly or at high angle to the Cenozoic mountain belts and oceanic trenches.The geo-net reveals a fundamental geotectonic hemispherical symmetry of the earth. Pacific plate and African plate are homologous. Two distinct circular zones of major tectono-thermal mobilization of the lithosphere and relative high heat-flow, the Pacific Ring and the Circum-African Ring, at 60–70 degrees respectively 50–60 degrees distance from the poles of the geo-net, are recognized (Fig. 4).Beneath the Pacific plate and the African plate a very broad, slowly ascending flow of mantle material is assumed to exist. Underneath the lithosphere the ascending flow is forced to diverge and to flow horizontally away from the P-pole and A-pole, the horizontal component of flow reaching its maximum value at 60–70 degrees distance from the poles. In the equatorial zone of the geo-net the flow converges and descends into the mantle. In order to generate such a mantel wide flow system two ring-like convection cells are postulated (Fig. 7). They have a rotational symmetry, the axis AP, connecting A-pole and P-pole, being the common rotation axis.With regard to this model the great circles of the geo-net represent flow lines. Tensional stress, i. e. minimum compressive stress, is oriented parallel to the small circles of the geo-net. African plate and Pacific plate are under tensional stress regime the plates in the equatorial zone of the geo-net under compressional regime.For Mars a planetartectonic reference system, very similar to the geo-net, can be established (Fig. 10). It is defined by the pole T located on the equator of Mars at 111°W/ 0°N in the Tharsis region, and its counter-pole at 291°W/0°N. At the time of formation of the important Tharsis fault system the minimum compressive stress in the Martian lithosphere was oriented parallel to the small circles of the Martian reference net.

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Zusammenfassung Ausgehend von der Anordnung der aktiven ozeanischen Rücken und der jungen Faltengebirge läßt sich für die Erde ein sphärisches Koordinatensystem definieren, welches zum neotektonischen Deformationsbild in besonderer Beziehung steht. Die beiden Pole des Netzes liegen auf dem Äquator: der Pazifische Pol P bei 170°W/0°N, der Afrikanische Pol A bei 10°E/0°N (s. Fig. 1). In bezug auf dieses geotektonische Referenznetz, kurz Geo-Netz genannt, lassen sich geo-latitudinale, d. h. parallel zu den Kleinkreisen verlaufende, und geo-longitudinale, d. h. parallel zu den Großkreisen verlaufende, ozeanische Rücken, Rückensegmente und Transform Faults unterscheiden. Die Großkreise des Geo-Netzes schneiden den jungen Gebirgsgürtel und die Inselbögen in annähernd rechtem Winkel.Das Geo-Netz läßt eine hemisphärische geotektonische Symmetrie erkennen. Die Pazifische Platte und die Afrikanische Platte sind zueinander homolog. Zwei kreisringförmige Zonen ausgeprägter tektono-thermaler Mobilisierung der Lithosphäre und relativ hohen Wärmeflusses, der Pazifische Ring und der Zirkum-Afrikanische Ring, im Abstand von 60–70 Grad, respektive 50–60 Grad von den Polen des Geo-Netzes, lassen sich erkennen (Fig. 4).Unter der Pazifischen Platte und unter der Afrikanischen Platte wird im Mantel eine sehr breit angelegte, langsam aufsteigende Strömung angenommen. Unter den Lithosphärenplatten wird das aufsteigende Material gezwungen horizontal und in bezug auf die beiden Pole des Geo-Netzes radial wegzufließen. In der äquatorialen Zone des Geo-Netzes konvergiert die Strömung und taucht nach der Tiefe hinab. Für die Erzeugung des mantelweiten Strömungssystems werden zwei ringförmige, in bezug auf die AP-Achse rotationssymmetrische Konvektionszellen angenommen (Fig. 7). In bezug auf dieses Strömungssystem entsprechen die Großkreise des Geo-Netzes Strömungslinien im oberen Mantel unter den Lithosphärenplatten. Die kleinste Druckspannung ist parallel zu den Kleinkreisen des Geo-Netzes orientiert. Die Afrikanische Platte und die Pazifische Platte stehen unter tensionalem Spannungsregime, die Platten in der äquatorialen Zone des Geo-Netzes unter Kompression.Für den Mars läßt sich ein planetartektonisches Referenznetz definieren, welches dem Geo-Netz sehr genau entspricht (Fig. 10): Der Pol T dieses Netzes liegt auf dem Äquator des Mars bei 111°W/0°N, sein Gegenpol bei 291°W/0°N. Die Brüche des Tharsis-Bruchsystems verlaufen längs Großkreisen des so definerten Mars-Netzes. Zur Zeit ihrer Entstehung muß die kleinste Druckspannung parallel zu den Kleinkreisen orientiert gewesen sein. Die planetartektonische Situation im Gebiet des Tharsis-Bruchsystems ist damit vergleichbar und homolog der Situation im Bereich der Afrikanischen Platte und der Pazifischen Platte.

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Résumé En partant de la disposition des dorsales océaniques actives et des chaînes de plissement récentes, on peut définir pour la Terre un système de coordonnées sphériques qui se présente suivant une relation particulière avec l'image de la déformation néotectonique. Les deux pôles du réseau se trouvent sur l'équateur: le pôle pacifique P à 170° W/ 0° N, le pôle africain A à 10° E/0° N. (Fig. 1). Sur ce réseau de référence gé otectonique, dénommé Géoréseau, on peut distinguer des dorsales océaniques, des segments dorsaux et des failles transformantes géolatitudinales, c'est-à-dire parallèles aux petits cercles, et géolongitudinales, c'est-à-dire parallèles aux grands cercles. Les grands cercles du géoréseau recoupent la ceinture montagneuse jeune et les arcs insulaires approximativement suivant un angle droit.Le géoréseau permet de reconnaître une symmétrie géotectonique hémisphérique. La plaque du Pacifique et la plaque africaine sont homologues l'une de l'autre. Deux zones circulaires bien marquées de mobilisation tectono-thermale de la lithosphère et de flux thermique relativement élevé, l'anneau du Pacifique et l'anneau circumafricain, peuvent s'y reconnaître respectivement à une distance de 60–70° et 50–60° des pôles du géoréseau. (Fig. 4).Sous la plaque du Pacifique et sous la plaque africaine, il est admis qu'il existe dans le manteau un très large courant, à montée lente. Sous les plaques lithosphériques le matériau en voie d'ascension est forcé de se disperser horizontalement, et ce radialement par rapport aux deux pôles du géoréseau. Dans la zone équatoriale du géoréseau le courant converge et replonge vers la profondeur. Pour la production du système de courants embrassant le manteau, il est admis l'existence de deux cellules de convection annulaires, symétriques par rapport à l'axe AP. (Fig. 7). Dans ce système de courants, les grands cercles du géoréseau correspondent à des lignes de courant dans le manteau supérieur sous les plaques lithosphériques. La compression minimum est orientée parallèlement aux petits cercles du géoréseau. La plaque africaine et la plaque du Pacifique se trouvent sous un régime d'extension, et les plaques dans la zone équatoriale du géoréseau sous compression.Pour Mars on peut définir, en ce qui concerne la tectonique planétaire, un réseau de référence qui correspond très exactement au géoréseau (Fig. 10): le pôle T de ce réseau se trouve sur l'équateur de Mars à 111 °W/0 °N, et son pôle opposé à 291 °W/0 °N. Les fractures du système de fractures de la Tharsis se disposent suivant les grands cercles du réseau ainsi défini. Lors de leur naissance, la compression minimum devait être orientée parallèlement aux petits cercles. La situation tectonique de la planète dans le domaine du système de fractures de la Tharsis est donc comparable et homologue à la situation dans le cadre de la plaque africaine et de la plaque du Pacifique.

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, , . : 170W/0N, 10E/0N. (. 1). , , - , , -, , , . - . . . - : , 60–70 50–60° - (. 4). , , , . , , . - . , - (. 7). , - . . , , - . - , - (. 10). 111W/0N, 291W/0N. . . .. - , .

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Contribution No. 292 of Institut für Geophysik, ETH Zürich.     

区域水污染控制系统规划辅助模型研究

在对区域水污染控制系统CAP模型进行需求分析的基础上,采用UML技术进行CAP模型的结构设计,提出了采用Geodatabase作为CAP模型的开发模式。以佛山市水污染控制系统规划为例,介绍了采用CAP模型进行辅助规划的具体步骤。实践证明,采用CAP模型辅助区域水污染控制系统规划,可以提高规划效率及数据完整性,是其便捷的CAP解决方案。     

区域重力调查中GPS和MapGIS的应用

本文通过在区域重力调查工作中，应用GPS定位技术解求重力测点的平面坐标和高程，并通过MapGIS空间分析模型子系统功能对资料及时整理，使野外人员及时地掌握工作进展情况和质量情况，提高了野外工作质量和效率。     

全球洋中脊系统的构造特征及其运动学意义

本文将全球洋中脊系统作为研究整体,根据洋中脊的全球分布、运动学特征及其初始形成时与泛大陆的构造几何关系,将全球现今的洋中脊系统划分为内、外支洋中脊。外支洋中脊为探索者洋中脊-太平洋洋隆-东南印度洋中脊-西北印度洋中脊,起源于泛大洋及冈瓦纳大陆内部;内支洋中脊为西南印度洋中脊-大西洋中脊-北冰洋加科尔洋中脊,起源于泛大陆内部。两者之间通过俯冲带、转换断层以及弥散性板块边界实现全球板块构造在运动上的平衡,并保持地球的球形几何形态恒定。外支洋中脊在全球板块构造上造成泛大洋缩减,并持续被太平洋取代,直接推动了环太平洋俯冲带的形成;内支洋中脊造成大西洋盆、印度洋盆中生代以来持续扩张。中生代以来,外支洋中脊和内支洋中脊共同作用引起非洲板块、印度澳大利亚板块向北运动,新特提斯洋盆关闭,形成特提斯(阿尔卑斯山-喀尔巴阡山-扎格罗斯山-喜马拉雅山)碰撞造山带,并通过洋中脊扩张平衡了相关的岩石圈缩短。     

A partial instructional module on global and regional land use/cover change: assessing the data and searching for general relationships

Land use/cover change has occurred at all times in all parts of the world. Most affected and involved in these processes are the environmental spheres of water, soil, and vegetative cover, which are closely linked to geomorphology, climate, fauna, and especially human societies. These linkages between spheres are highly complex and, as of yet, incompletely understood. The most profound questions with respect to land use/cover and global change are: “What forces drive land use/land cover change?”, “What impacts — direct and indirect, now and in the future — do these changes have on the environment and on human society?” and “Can and should we, and if so, how, respond to these changes?” This partial teaching module, developed under the auspices of the Second Commission on College Geography of the Association of American Geographers, introduces students to the complexities inherent in these questions, but mainly focusses on the first of these. It illustrates the central role of the study of land land use/cover change within the large field of global environmental and climatic change, and is thus a good unit to introduce this area of interest.     

Space geodesy in geodynamic studies: Recent movements in the Zeya-Bureya Basin

The Amur-Zeya geodynamic test ground was set up in 2000 to study recent intracontinental crustal deformations. The velocity field calculations for the period of 2000 to 2003 describe three movements scales. The general level is characterized by the vectors of IGS sites in the eastern part of Asia, the BLAG (Blagoveshchensk) site included. The southeast movement of the IRKT (Irkutsk) site of the stable Siberian Platform is indicative of deformations in the northeastern part of the Amur Plate. Measurement data on the regional near-latitudinal profile Blagoveshchensk-Sutara, which crosses the Nizhnyaya Zeya Basin, demonstrate a southwestward displacement of the Badzhal-Bureya-Lesser Khingan block relative to the North China block. The dynamic effect of the convergent boundary between the Amur and Okhotsk Sea plates is assumed to extend inland also involving the Zeya-Bureya Basin area. The measurements on the local geodynamic test site relate the deformations of buildings and constructions in the Settlement of Konstantinovka to the mobility of basement faults in the southern part of the Nizhnyaya Zeya Basin. Aseismic deformations are determined by slow horizontal tectonic movements in the junction zone of NNE-trending structures of the latter basin and near-latitudinal faults of the Khailar-Xunhei Belt.