2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震前地震应变场分析

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震前的地震应变场,提取出震前时间因子的异常变化。计算结果发现应变场前4个时间因子在震前1~3年的中短期异常并不显著,只有第2个和第4个时间因子震前有小幅度的异常变化,分析其原因,时间因子可能受到2008年汶川8.0级地震和2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前大幅度异常的影响。与时间因子对应的空间等值线形成局部应变高值异常危险区,可能是2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震和2017年九寨沟7.0级地震空间异常的中短期特征。再对比九寨沟7.0级地震前后与松潘-平武7.2级双震的空间异常随时间演变,分析异常发展变化模式的差异,最后应用地震资料的累积频次从物理角度解释异常形成的机制。     

Modeling of the runup heights of the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami of 12 July 1993

The Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (M _w 7.7) of July 12, 1993, is one of the largest tsunamigenic events in the Sea of Japan. The tsunami magnitudeM _t is determined to be 8.1 from the maximum amplitudes of the tsunami recorded on tide gauges. This value is larger thanM _w by 0.4 units. It is suggested that the tsunami potential of the Nansei-Oki earthquake is large forM _w . A number of tsunami runup data are accumulated for a total range of about 1000 km along the coast, and the data are averaged to obtain the local mean heightsH _n for 23 segments in intervals of about 40 km each. The geographic variation ofH _n is approximately explained in terms of the empirical relationship proposed byAbe (1989, 1993). The height prediction from the available earthquake magnitudes ranges from 5.0–8.4 m, which brackets the observed maximum ofH _n , 7.7 m, at Okushiri Island.     

Correlating Precursory Declines in Groundwater Radon with Earthquake Magnitude

Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low‐porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (M_w): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 M_w 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 M_w 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 M_L 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible.     

Discharge of H2 from the Atotsugawa and Ushikubi Faults,Japan, and its relation to earthquakes

The concentration of H₂ in soil gases has been measured weekly at five stations on the Atotsugawa and Ushikubi faults in northern central Main Island, Japan, since 1981 in search of possible relationship with earthquakes. The observed H₂ concentration varies from lower than 1 ppm to 7.8% in time and place. When a large earthquake (M: 7.7, epicenter distance: 486 km) occurred on 26 May 1983, an outstanding discharge of H₂ was observed at all five stations, preseismically at three of them, and coseismically at the other two. Simultaneous H₂ emission was also observed at some stations in seven other occasions. These periods of unusual H₂ discharge nearly coincided with occurrences of major earthquakes in Japan, but not of local minor earthquakes along the Atotsugawa fault. This fault, being a deep fracture zone, may be sensitive to large-scale crustal stress changes which incidentally cause the major earthquakes. Increased H₂ may be produced by rock fracture caused by the increased stresses on the fault and by the earthquakes themselves. Local minor earthquakes along Atotsugawa fault with magnitude lower than 3 may be unable to cause sufficient rock fracture to produce significant H₂.     

On coda waves of earthquakes

Summary Coda waves viz. the tail portion of an earthquake record have been observed and analysed byCarder, Macelwane and others. They showed that the periods of such waves increase with the increase of epicentral distances.Carder observed that these waves have very little transverse component so that these may be considered as of the type of Rayleigh waves. RecentlyOmote showed that the Coda waves contain three periodsT ₁,T ₂,T ₃ of whichT ₁ increases with epi-central distances as observed by previous observers. ButT ₂,T ₃ remain constant for all earthquakes from different epicentral distances.Omote tried to explain this phenomenon by considering that the surface of the earth consists of several layers andT ₂,T ₃ are free oscillation periods of the surface layers.T ₁ period has been explained bySezawa and also byJeffreys which has been shown byGutenberg. The author has attempted to explain the periodsT ₂,T ₃ by considering passage of cracks at the focal region. The Rayleigh wave character of Coda waves and low velocity of such waves have been explained.     

2016年新疆呼图壁6.2级地震前b值异常特征研究

利用2009年以来中国地震台网中心地震编目资料,以2016年新疆呼图壁6.2级地震作为研究对象,采用最大似然法进行b值空间扫描计算,获取震前震中及其邻区地震b值的空间图像。研究结果显示,2016年呼图壁6.2级地震发生在震前显著低b值区域,该异常特征可能反映了地震孕育的应力积累过程,印证了b值的物理意义。     

通过断层气氢探测新郑-太康断裂的浅层位置

新郑-太康断裂隐伏于河南省东部平原下,是一条规模较大的北西向断裂带,曾于2010年发生太康4.7级地震,确定该断裂准确的浅层位置对防震减灾具有重要意义。根据深部石油勘探资料,应用德尔格X-am 7000型多气体检测仪,在新郑地区布置2条与断裂走向近垂直的地球化学测线进行土壤氢气浓度测试,结果发现解放路和马庄村-前宫村测线异常点位处氢气浓度分别为背景值的16-33倍和40-50倍。2条H₂浓度曲线同步解释出一条倾向变化、宽约150m的走滑断裂带,位置与石油勘探资料吻合良好。此次研究表明利用断层气氢探测隐伏断裂的浅层位置在该区具有较好的可行性。     

Geochemical changes at the Bagni di Triponzo thermal spring during the Umbria-Marche 1997–1998 seismic sequence

After the earthquakes of September 26, 1997, that hit the Umbria-Marcheboundary (Apennine, Central Italy), with a maximum 6.0 M_w, aprogram of geochemical surveying together with a collection ofhydrogeological changes episodes was extended throughout theepicentre-area, taking the yearly period of the seismic sequence as a whole.After a first areal screening, the Bagni di Triponzo thermal spring wasselected for a discrete temporal monitoring (weekly and monthly basis),being the unique thermal spring throughout the epicentre area. This sitedeserves peculiar interest in deepening the knowledge about deep fluidscirculation changing during seismicity.Laboratory and on-field analyses included major, minor and trace elementsas well as dissolved gases (He, Ar, CH₄, CO₂, H₂S,²²²Rn, NH₄, As, Li, Fe, B, etc...) and selected isotopic ratios(C, H, O, He, Sr, Cl), meaningful from tectonic point of view.The chemistry and isotopic chemistry of the spring were fully outlined anddiscussed, pointing out the main process involving the thermal aquifer: thewater-rock interaction inside the Evaporite Triassic Basement (ETB),possibly involving also the Paleozoic Crystalline Basement. On theother hand, sudden and apparent geochemical and hydrogeologicalvariations during the seismic sequence ruled out an evolution in thewater-rock interaction processes. They occurred both at depth, i.e.,induced by fluid remobilization within the crust explained by the Coseismic Strain Model and by the Fault Valve Activity Model, and in the shallow part of the reservoir (i.e., meteoric watercontamination). A statistical multivariable analysis (Factor Analysis) wasaccomplished to better constrain the correlation between the paroxysmalphases of the seismic sequence and the observed trends and spike-likeanomalies. The groundwater variations was inferred to occur mainly insidethe ETB, from depth (1–2 km) up to surface, particularly in associationof the Sellano earthquake (14/10/1997) and of the seismic re-activationof the sequence at the end of March 1998 (Gualdo Tadino-Rigali andVerchiano areas). The lack of deeper input from below the ETB (slightsignature of PCB), as the lack of He mantle signature, during the seismicperiod as a whole, accounted for seismogenic fault segments rooted onlyin the crust. The results also provide useful information about theearthquake-related response mechanisms occurring at this site, thatrepresent the basic task for planning and managing the impendinghydro-geochemical network aimed at defining the relationships betweenseismic cycle, fluids and reliable earthquake forerunners.     

Anomalous CO2 content in the Gallicano thermo-mineral spring (Serchio Valley,Italy) before the 21 June 2013, Alpi Apuane earthquake (M = 5.2)

Since late 2002, a continuous automatic monitoring network is operating in Tuscany, Central Italy, to investigate the geochemical response of selected aquifers to local seismic activity. The monitoring is aimed at identifying possible earthquake geochemical precursors. The network is currently constituted by six stations, all equipped with sensors for the measurement of temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, CO₂ and CH₄ dissolved concentration, that have been installed in the areas of highest seismic risk of the region. By combining geochemical data gathered from the automatic station of Gallicano (Garfagnana, Northern Tuscany), and obtained via chemical analyses of spring water samples collected during periodic field surveys in the area surrounding this station, the most significant aspects of the deep fluid circulation paths feeding the Gallicano thermo-mineral system have been investigated, and the geochemical baseline of the Gallicano spring defined. The CO₂ continuous signal recorded by the Gallicano automatic station has been then processed over the period 2003–2013 in the search for anomalies possibly related to local seismic activity. A substantial anomaly in CO₂ content has been observed at Gallicano in conjunction with the Alpi Apuane earthquake (M = 5.2) of 21 June 2013.     

Automatic detection,location and quantification of earthquakes: Application to tsunami warning

We describe a fully automated seismic event detection and location system, providing for real-time estimates of the epicentral parameters of both local and distant earthquakes. The system uses 12 telemetered short-period stations, with a regional aperture of 350 km, as well as two 3-component broad-band stations. Detection and location of teleseismic events is achieved independently and concurrently on the short-period and long-period channels. The long-period data is then used to obtain an estimate of the seismic momentM ₀ of the earthquake through the mantle magnitudeM _m, as introduced byOkal andTalandier (1989). In turn, this estimate ofM ₀ is used to infer the expected tsunami amplitude at Papeete, within 15 minutes of the recording of Rayleigh waves. The performance of the method is discussed in terms of the accuracy of the epicentral parameters and seismic moment obtained in real time, as compared to the values later published by the reporting agencies. Our estimates are usually within 3 degrees of the reported epicenter, and the standard deviation on the seismic moment only 0.19 unit of magnitude for a population of 154 teleseismic events.     

Variations in discharge and temperature of mineral springs at the Františkovy Lázně spa,Czech Republic,during a nearby earthquake swarm in 1985/1986

The western part of the Bohemian Massif (West-Bohemia/Vogtland region at the Czech-German border) is characterized by relatively frequent intraplate earthquake swarms and by other manifestations of present-day geodynamic activity. During the strong earthquake swarm at the turn of the years 1985 and 1986, significant changes in mineral spring parameters were observed at the spa of Františkovy Lázně. In this study, we present all available data on the mineral springs parameters, and we discuss them in terms of relations to seismic activity. Some changes in discharge were very distinct, amounting up to 40%, and had a co-seismic character. The changes in temperature were less noticeable, but preceded the beginning of the swarm by several months. Some hydrological changes persisted for nearly two years after the earthquake swarm. The character of the observed changes seems to support the hypothesis on an injection of mantle fluids, in particular of CO₂, as the main triggering mechanism of the earthquake swarm and the main cause of discharge anomalies.     

嘉峪关气氡浓度异常与2021年玛多MS7.4地震关系分析

嘉峪关气氡浓度在多年上升的背景下,于2017年出现了转折异常变化,但祁连山地震带内一直没有发生与异常幅度和持续时间相匹配的地震,直到2021年5月22日,在距离嘉峪关气氡测点570 km的玛多发生M_S7.4地震。为了判断嘉峪关气氡浓度异常与玛多地震的关系,结合震例,从异常信度、震前异常特征、震后异常变化及地质构造背景等方面对其进行深入分析。结果发现:嘉峪关气氡浓度的异常特征与地震所处的构造有关,发生在祁连山地震带内的地震,气氡浓度异常表现为1年或半年尺度的年畸变,发生在该地震带以外远距离的地震,气氡浓度异常表现为多年的趋势性变化;玛多地震发生后,嘉峪关气氡浓度下降速率减缓之后转折,呈恢复状态;嘉峪关气氡测点与玛多地震都位于青藏高原东北部,具有相同的动力背景且在构造上具有关联性。综合分析认为嘉峪关气氡多年趋势异常与玛多M_S7.4地震有关,研究对建立可靠的异常指标体系、提高地震预测水平具有重要意义。     

Partial breaking of a mature seismic gap: The 1987 earthquakes in New Britain

To better understand the mechanics of subduction and the process of breaking a mature seismic gap, we study seismic activity along the western New Britain subduction segment (147°E–151°E, 4°S–8°S) through earthquakes withm _b 5.0 in the outer-rise, the upper area of subducting slab and at intermediate depths to 250 km, from January 1964 to December 1990. The segment last broke fully in large earthquakes of December, 28, 1945 (M _s =7.9) and May 6, 1947 (M _s =7.7.), and its higher seismic potential has been recognized byMcCann et al., (1979). Recently the segment broke partially in two smaller events of February, 8, 1987 (M _s =7.4) and October 16, 1987 (M _s =7.4), leaving still unbroken areas.We observe from focal mechanisms that the outer-rise along the whole segment was under pronounced compression from the late 60's to at least October 1987 (with exception of the tensional earthquake of December 11, 1985), signifying the mature stage of the earthquake cycle. Simultaneously the slab at intermediate depths below 40 km was under tension before the earthquake of October 16, 1987. That event, with a smooth rupture lasting 32 sec, rupture velocity of 2.0 km/sec, extent of approximately 70 km and moment of 1.2×10²⁷ dyne-cm, did not change significantly the compressive state of stress in the outer-rise of that segment. The earthquake did not fill the gap completely and this segment is still capable of rupturing either in an earthquake which would fill the gap between the 1987 and 1971 events, or in a larger magnitude event (M _s =7.7–7.9), comparable to earthquakes observed in that segment in 1906, 1945 and 1947.     

Characteristics of seismic activity before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The characteristics of spatio-temporal seismicity evolution before the Wenchuan earthquake are studied. The results mainly involve in the trend abnormal features and its relation to the Wenchuan earthquake. The western Chinese mainland and its adjacent area has been in the seismically active period since 2001, while the seismic activity shows the obvious quiescence of M≥?7.0, M≥?6.0 and M?≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. A quiescence area with M?≥7.0 has been formed in the middle of the North-South seismic zone since 1988, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just within this area. There are a background seismicity gap of M?≥5.0 earthquakes and a seismogenic gap of M_L?≥4.0 earthquakes in the area of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinity prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. The seismic activity obviously strengthened and a doughnut-shape pattern of M?≥4.6 earthquakes is formed in the middle and southern part of the North-South seismic zone after the 2003 Dayao, Yunnan, earthquake. Sichuan and its vicinity in the middle of the doughnut-shape pattern show abnormal quiescence. At the same time, the seismicity of earthquake swarms is significant and shows heterogeneity in the temporal and spatial process. A swarm gap appears in the M4.6 seismically quiet area, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just on the margin of the gap. In addition, in the short term before the Wenchuan earthquake, the quiescence of earthquake with M_L≥?4.0 appears in Qinghai-Tibet block and a seismic belt of M_L?≥3.0 earthquakes, with NW striking and oblique with Longmenshan fault zone, is formed.     

云南地区地壳速度模型研究及应用

选取2009~2014年发生在云南地区、每个地震均在10个以上台站有记录的7412个地震数据,作走时曲线。同时为提高精度,重点对其中每个地震均在80%以上台站有记录的、ML≥3.0的83个地震数据,再作线性分析、折合走时曲线和区间稳定性分析,结合前人研究成果得到了研究区的初始地壳速度模型。选取2010~2014年云南省内M≥3.0的200次地震,采用Hyposat批处理方法迭代初始速度模型,以及对S波作分层速度拟合,得到云南地区的地壳速度模型,即2015云南模型:v_(P1)=6.01km/s,v_(P2)=6.60km/s,v_(Pn)=7.89km/s,H_1=20km,H_2=21km,v_(S1)=3.52km/s,v_(S2)=3.86km/s,v_(sn)=4.43km/s。基于新模型的地震重定位分析表明,云南地区地震事件大多发生于20km内的上地壳;对2011年3月10日盈江M5.8和2014年8月3日鲁甸M6.5典型地震进行重定位,得出震源深度分别与精定位结果和震中强震台震源距接近,表明新的一维速度模型能更好地反映研究区平均速度结构。     

龙门山断裂带上“破裂空段”的发震概率研究

本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。     

The earthquake of Carnuntum in the fourth century a.d. – archaeological results, seismologic scenario and seismotectonic implications for the Vienna Basin fault, Austria

Excavations in the former Roman provincial capital of Pannonia Superior, Carnuntum, 40 km east of Vienna revealed damaged masonry structures from many parts of the ancient settlements. A compilation of structurally damaged buildings has formerly been given by Kandler (Acta Archaeol Acad Sci Hung, 41:313–336, 1989), who related damage to an earthquake in the middle of the fourth century a.d. This paper reviews and supplements these data, and discusses the significance of the style of damage. It is concluded that seismic damage is the only likely interpretation for the damaging mechanism. Although archaeological age dating for the individual collapsed buildings only constrains the timing of their destruction to a few decades around 350 a.d., we assume a single damaging event. In spite of the restrictions on damage assessment by the nature of the archaeological data, it is possible to give a reasonable appraisal of macroseismic intensity. The tentative seismological interpretation of damage leads to an intensity estimate of about nine of the European macroseismic scale (EMS-1998). Comparison with macroseismic data of modern earthquakes in the region, which show a rapid decrease of intensity with distance form the epicentre, indicate a near-by seismic source unless exceptionally high epicentral intensities are assumed for the fourth century event. The most likely source is an active sinistral strike-slip fault (Lassee Fault) passing about 8 km NW of the archaeological site. The fault belongs to Vienna Basin fault system with about 2 mm sinistral movement per year. The system is characterized by fault segmentation and distinct seismicity along the different segments. Moderate seismicity during the last centuries at the southern segments (e.g., Schwadorf 1927, I ₀=8) strongly contrasts from the Lassee fault segment with Carnuntum as the only known severe earthquake. The earthquake of Carnuntum provides evidence for the overall seismic style of deformation along this segment, which previously has not been regarded seismically active. Also, the fourth century earthquake is the strongest event known from the Vienna Basin fault so far.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Coseismic changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases from the Owakudani geothermal area on Hakone volcano,Japan

The chemical and isotopic compositions of volcanic gases at a borehole and a natural fumarole in the Owakudani geothermal area, Hakone volcano, Japan, have been repeatedly measured since 2001, when a seismic swarm occurred in the area. The CO₂/H₂O and CO₂/H₂S ratios were high in 2001. It increased in 2006 and again in 2008 when seismic swarms occurred beneath the geothermal area. The observed increases suggest the injection of CO₂- and SO₂-rich magmatic gas into the underlying hydrothermal reservoir, implying that the magmatic gas was episodically supplied to the hydrothermal system in 2006 and 2008. The earthquake swarms probably resulted from the injection of gas through the shallow crust accompanying the break of the sealing zone.     

基于高分卫星遥感影像的地震应急滑坡编目与分布特征探讨——以2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震为例

地震应急是减轻地震灾害的重要途径之一。地震应急工作具有时间紧迫、事关重大的特点。2017年8月8日四川九寨沟M_S7.0级地震发生后,为快速、准确地提供地震引发的滑坡灾害分布,本研究基于震后第一天获取到的高分辨率遥感影像（高分二号卫星影像、北京二号卫星影像）,通过人工目视解译的方法初步建立了四川九寨沟地震滑坡编目。结果表明,该地震至少触发了622处同震滑坡,分布在沿使用影像边界框定的面积为3919km2的区域内。本研究还利用这个地震滑坡编目,统计了九寨沟地震滑坡数量和滑坡点密度（LND）与地形（坡度、坡向）、地震（地震烈度、震中距）等因素的关系。结果表明九寨沟地震滑坡多发生在坡度为20°—50°的区域内,滑坡的易发性随着坡度的增加而增加。受地震波传播方向的影响,E、SE向是地震滑坡较易发生的坡向。滑坡的易发程度和地震烈度呈正相关,即随着烈度的增大,滑坡易发性增大。滑坡易发性还随着震中距增加而降低,这是由于地震波能量随震中距的增加而衰减导致的。