Evaluation of remote sensing‐based evapotranspiration estimates using a water transfer numerical simulation under different vegetation conditions in an arid area

Daily actual evapotranspiration (AET) and seasonal AET values are of great practical importance in the management of regional water resources and hydrological modelling. Remotely sensed AET models and Landsat satellite images have been used widely in producing AET estimates at the field scale. However, the lack of validation at a high spatial frequency under different soil water conditions and vegetation coverages limits their operational applications. To assess the accuracies of remote sensing‐based AET in an oasis‐desert region, a total of 59 local‐scale daily AET time series, simulated using HYDRUS‐1D calibrated with soil moisture profiles, were used as ground truth values. Of 59 sampling sites, 31 sites were located in the oasis subarea and 28 sites were located in the desert subarea. Additionally, the locally validated mapping evapotranspiration at high resolution with internalized calibration surface energy balance model was employed to estimate instantaneous AET values in the area containing all 59 of the sampling sites using seven Landsat subimages acquired from June 5 to August 24 in 2011. Daily AET was obtained using extrapolation and interpolation methods with the instantaneous AET maps. Compared against HYDRUS‐1D, the remote sensing‐based method produced reasonably similar daily AET values for the oasis sites, while no correlation was observed for daily AET estimated using these two methods for the desert sites. Nevertheless, a reasonable monthly AET could be estimated. The correlation analysis between HYDRUS‐1D‐simulated and remote sensing‐estimated monthly AET values showed relative root‐mean‐square error values of 15.1%, 12.1%, and 12.3% for June, July, and August, respectively. The root mean square error of the summer AET was 10.0%. Overall, remotely sensed models can provide reasonable monthly and seasonal AET estimates based on periodic snapshots from Landsat images in this arid oasis‐desert region.     

Regional water balance modelling in the NOPEX area: development and application of monthly water balance models

One of the main purposes of a water balance study is to evaluate the net available water resources, both on the surface and in the subsurface. Water balance models that simulate hydrographs of river flow on the basis of available meteorological data would be a valuable tool in the hands of the planners and designers of water resources systems. In this paper, a set of simple monthly snow and water balance models has been developed and applied to regional water balance studies in the NOPEX area. The models require as input monthly areal precipitation, monthly long-term average potential evapotranspiration and monthly mean air temperature. The model outputs are monthly river flow and other water balance components, such as actual evapotranspiration, slow and fast components of river flow, snow accumulation and melting. The results suggest that the proposed model structure is suitable for water balance study purposes in seasonally snow-covered catchments located in the region.     

Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko framework – Model development and testing

Partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff is controlled by climate and catchment characteristics. The degree of control exerted by these factors varies with the spatial and temporal scales of processes modeled. The Budyko framework or the “limits” concept was used to model water balance at four temporal scales (mean annual, annual, monthly and daily). The method represents a top-down approach to hydrologic modeling and is expected to achieve parsimony of model parameters. Daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow from 265 catchments in Australia were used. On a mean annual basis, the index of dryness defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation was confirmed to be a dominant factor in determining the water balance with one model parameter. Analysis of the data, however, suggested increased model complexity is necessary on finer time scale such as monthly. In response, the Budyko framework for mean annual water balance was extended to include additional factors and this resulted in a parsimonious lumped conceptual model on shorter-time scale. The model was calibrated and tested against measured streamflow at variable time scales and showed promising results. The strengths of the model are consistent water balance relationships across different time scales, and model parsimony and robustness. As result, the model has the potential to be used to predict streamflow for ungauged catchments.     

A water balance model to estimate climate change impact on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year^–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year^–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year^–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.     

Estimating evapotranspiration from small watersheds using a water and energy balance approach

Meteorological and environmental data measured in semiarid watersheds during the summer monsoon and winter periods were used to study the interrelationships among flux, meteorological and soil water variables, and to evaluate the effects of these variables on the daily estimation of actual evapotranspiration (AET). The relationship between AET and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a function of soil water content, as suggested by Thornthwaite–Mather and by Morton, was studied to determine its applicability to the study area. Furthermore, multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis was employed to evaluate the order of importance of the meteorological and soil water factors involved. The results of MLR analysis showed that the combined effects of available energy, soil water content and wind speed were responsible for more than 70% of the observed variations in AET during the summer monsoon period. The analyses also indicate that the combined effects of available energy, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed were responsible for more than 70% of the observed variations in AET during the winter period. However, the test results of two different approaches, using the relationships between AET and PET as a function of soil water content, indicated some inadequacy. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

STUDIES OF THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN LAND USE ON THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN EAST AFRICA BY MEANS OF EXPERIMENTAL CATCHMENT AREAS

Summary

The urgent need for planning information on the effect of changes in land use on water resources in East Africa has necessitated the use of intensive methods of experimental catchment area research in order to produce data on the water balance of different vegetation covers in a matter of years rather than decades.

Quantitative water balance studies require an intensive network of raingauges to estimate the volumetric water input with an accuracy comparable with the measurement of outflow. Observations of the soil moisture status and energy balance, in addition to those of rainfall and streamflow are necessary to provide independent checks for “leaks” from the catchments. The successful application of these methods is illustrated from the results of three catchment area experiments in Kenya and Tanzania. The water use of each vegetational complex is characterized by the ratio of the transpiration, E _t, to the evaporative demand from an open water surface, E _o. This ratio is shown to vary little from year to year despite considerable variation in E _t and E _o.

An intensive method of analysis of stormflow response, based on the construction of a prediction equation relating stormflow to rainfall quantity and intensity and to antecedent surface soil moistrue condition, is described. Results from the application of the method in one of the catchments are presented in detail.     

Prediction of hourly actual evapotranspiration using neural networks,genetic programming,and statistical models

The complexity of the evapotranspiration process and its variability in time and space have imposed some limitations on previously developed evapotranspiration models. In this study, two data‐driven models: genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), and statistical regression models were developed and compared for estimating the hourly eddy covariance (EC)‐measured actual evapotranspiration (AET) using meteorological variables. The utility of the investigated data‐driven models was also compared with that of HYDRUS‐1D model, which makes use of conventional Penman–Monteith (PM) model for the prediction of AET. The latent heat (LE), which is measured using the EC method, is modelled as a function of five climatic variables: net radiation, ground temperature, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in a reconstructed landscape located in Northern Alberta, Canada. Several ANN models were evaluated using two training algorithms of Levenberg–Marquardt and Bayesian regularization. The GP technique was used to generate mathematical equations correlating AET to the five climatic variables. Furthermore, the climatic variables, as well as their two‐factor interactions, were statistically analysed to obtain a regression equation and to indicate the climatic factors having significant effect on the evapotranspiration process. HYDRUS‐1D model as an available physically based model was examined for estimating AET using climatic variables, leaf area index (LAI), and soil moisture information. The results indicated that all three proposed data‐driven models were able to approximate the AET reasonably well; however, GP and regression models had better generalization ability than the ANN model. The results of HYDRUS‐1D model exhibited that a physically based model, such as HYDRUS‐1D, might be comparable or even inferior to the data‐driven models in terms of the overall prediction accuracy. Based on the developed GP and regression models, net radiation and ground temperature had larger contribution to the AET process than other variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A world model of soil carbon dioxide

Mean growing season soil PCO₂ data were obtained for 19 regions of the world in nine countries. Bivariate and multiple linear regression analysis with soil log(PCO₂) as the dependent variable and TEMP, PRECIP, log(AET), and log(PET) as the four climatic independent variables demonstrated that AET was the best independent predictor of soil PCO₂. An improved soil PCO₂-AET model was developed by assuming (1) that as AET approaches zero, soil PCO₂ approaches the atmospheric value and (2) that there is an upper limit to soil PCO₂ at very high AET. This model has the form log(PCO₂) = ?3·47 + 2·09 (1 ?e^{?0·0172 AET}) where AET is in mm. It explains 67 per cent of the initial variation in the soil PCO₂ data, predicts a soil log(PCO₂) of ? 3·47 at AET = 0, and an upper limit of 3·5 per cent (log(PCO₂) = ? 1·45) for mean growing season soil PCO₂ at AET values of 2000 mm and above. The results of this study suggest that soil PCO₂ levels in tropical areas are, on average, higher than those in temperate, alpine, and arctic regions.     

Evaluation of three complementary relationship approaches for evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin

Regional evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle. However, reliable estimates of regional evapotranspiration are extremely difficult to obtain. In this study, the evapotranspiration simulated by three complementary relationship approaches, namely the Advection–Aridity (AA) model, the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) model and the Granger (G) model, is evaluated with the observations over the Yellow River basin during 1981–2000. The simulations on overall annual evapotranspiration are reasonably good, with mean annual errors less than 10% except in extreme dry years. The AA model gives the best estimation for the monthly evapotranspiration, and the CRAE and GM models slightly overestimate in winter. In addition, the AA model presents the same closure error of water balance over the Yellow River basin as model G, which was less than that by the CRAE model. In rather dry and rather wet cases (with higher or lower available energy), all three models perform less well. Empirical parameters of these models need to be recalibrated before they can be applied to other regions. The distribution of evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin is also discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A distributed approach for estimating catchment evapotranspiration: comparison of the combination equation and the complementary relationship approaches

In large river basins, there may be considerable variations in both climate and land use across the region. The evapotranspiration that occurs over a basin may be drastically different from one part of the region to another. The potential influence of these variations in evapotranspiration estimated for the catchment is weakened by using a spatially based distributed hydrological model in such a study. Areal evapotranspiration is estimated by means of approaches requiring only meteorological data: the combination equation (CE) model and the complementary relationship approach—the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE) and advection–aridity (AA) models. The capability of three models to estimate the evapotranspiration of catchments with complex topography and land‐use classification is investigated, and the models are applied to two catchments with different characteristics and scales for several representative years. Daily, monthly, and annual evapotranspiration are estimated with different accuracy. The result shows that the modified CE model may underestimate the evapotranspiration in some cases. The CRAE and AA models seem to be two kinds of effective alternatives for estimating catchment evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of the Penman‐Monteith method and regional calibration of the Hargreaves equation for actual evapotranspiration using SWAT-simulated results in the Seolma-cheon basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hargreaves method provides reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimates when only air temperature data are available, although it requires previous local calibration for an acceptable performance. This method was evaluated using the data from 71 meteorological stations in the Seolma-cheon basin (8.48 km²), South Korea, comparing daily estimates against those from the Penman‐Monteith (PM) method, which was used as the standard. To estimate reference ET_o more exactly, considering the climatological characteristics in South Korea, parameter regionalization of the Hargreaves equation is carried out. First, the modified Hargreaves equation is presented after an analysis of the relationship between solar radiation and temperature. Second, parameter (K_ET) optimization of the regional calibration of the Hargreaves equation (RCH) is performed using the PM method and the modified equation at 71 meteorological stations. Next, an application was carried out to evaluate the evapotranspiration methods (PM, original Hargreaves and RCH) in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model by comparing these with the measured actual evapotranspiration (AET) in the basin. The SWAT model was calibrated using 3 years (2007–2009) of daily streamflow at the watershed outlet and 3 years (2007–2009) of daily AET measured at a mixed forest. The model was validated with 3 years (2010‐2012) of streamflow and AET. RCH will contribute to a better understanding of evapotranspiration of an ungauged watershed in areas where meteorological information is scarce.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned     

Simulating temporal variability in catchment response using a monthly rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

Temporal variability can result from shifts in climate, or from changes in the runoff response due to land- or water-use changes, and represents a potential source of uncertainty in calibrating hydrological models. Parameter values were determined using Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods for a monthly rainfall–runoff model (Pitman model) for different sub-periods on four catchments, with different types and degrees of temporal variability, in Australia and Africa. For some catchments, parameters were not dependent upon the sub-period used and fell within expected ranges given the relatively high degree of model equifinality. In other catchments, dependencies can be identified that are associated with signals contained within the sub-periods. While the Pitman model is relatively robust in the face of temporal variability, it is concluded that better simulations will always be obtained from calibration data that include signals representing the total variability in climate, land-use change and catchment responses.     

IHMS—Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated,DiCaSM and saturated zone,MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus

The integrated hydrological modelling system, IHMS, has been described in detail in Part 1 of this paper. The system comprises three models: Distributed Catchment Scale Model (DiCaSM), MODFLOW (v96 and v2000) and SWI. The DiCaSM simulates different components of the unsaturated zone water balance, including groundwater recharge. The recharge output from DiCaSM is used as input to the saturated zone model MODFLOW, which subsequently calculates groundwater flows and head distributions. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to show the way more accurate predictions of groundwater levels in two Cyprus catchments can be obtained using improved estimates of groundwater recharge from the catchment water balance, and (2) to demonstrate the interface utility that simulates communication between unsaturated and saturated zone models and allows the transmission of data between the two models at the required spatial and temporal scales. The linked models can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources and to estimate the future water supply shortfall in the island up to 2050. The DiCaSM unsaturated zone model was successfully calibrated and validated against stream flows with reasonable values for goodness of fit as shown by the Nash‐Sutcliffe criterion. Groundwater recharge obtained from the successful tests was applied at various spatial and temporal scales to the Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus. These recharge values produced good estimates of groundwater levels in both catchments. Once calibrated, the model was run using a number of possible future climate change scenarios. The results showed that by 2050, groundwater and surface water supplies would decrease by 35% and 24% for Kouris and 20% and 17% for Akrotiri, respectively. The gap between water supply and demand showed a linear increase with time. The results suggest that IHMS can be used as an effective tool for water authorities and decision makers to help balance demand and supply on the island. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of season and balance period on the construction of catchment water balances

Water balances have been constructed for three catchments using monthly data on rainfall (P), evapotranspiration (ET), stream discharge (Q) and groundwater levels. Length of record on the three catchments is 12, 8 and 6 years. Monthly, seasonal, and annual residuals (R) of the surface water balance equation R = P − Q − ET are used to infer changes in groundwater storage and are plotted against observed changes in groundwater storage (WTD). Linear regression analysis between R and WTD is used to examine the nature of the catchments' storage characteristics, the watertightness of the catchments, and the possibility that systematic measurement errors accumulate as the balance period lengthens.     

The use of simple process-based models in the estimate of water balances for mixed land use catchments in East Africa

Soil moisture measurements by the neutron probe method were analysed to provide the parameters required for a daily model of actual evaporation from three land uses—grassland, indigenous bamboo and plantation softwood—in the Aberdare range of hills, Kenya. These daily estimates of evaporation were summed to provide annual totals and used, on a percentage land cover basis, in water balance calculations for three experimental mixed land use catchments, two of which were undergoing land use change. The annual water use, given by the difference between rainfall inputs and streamflow outputs, of the undisturbed catchment could normally be predicted to within 10%, whereas differences in the predicted and measured water use of the other two catchments were related to the changes in vegetation.     

Understanding the role of hydrologic model structures on evapotranspiration-driven sensitivity

ABSTRACT

Most conceptual hydrological models do not treat vegetation as a dynamic component. This study focuses on understanding the impact of model structural complexity on the sensitivity of hydrologic models to potential evapotranspiration forcing data. To achieve this, two classes of hydrologic models are examined: (1) lumped, conceptual rainfall–runoff models and (2) eco-hydrologic models. A sample of 57 US catchments, covering eight eco-regions, included in the MOPEX dataset is used. While streamflow simulation performance in complex models did not exhibit increased sensitivity to PET, actual evapotranspiration simulation performance showed greater sensitivity in energy-limited catchments. This analysis warns against using over-simplistic PET estimations in energy-limited catchments for eco-hydrologic models and for more complex conceptual hydrologic models. This is particularly true for streamflow-only calibrations that commonly fail to properly constrain physically based parameters. Ultimately, these results have the potential to inform data collection and model selection efforts to yield the greatest benefit.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration over Haihe River basin in China

Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration over the Haihe River basin in China during 1960–2002 are estimated using the complementary relationship and the Thornthwaite water balance (WB) approaches. Firstly, the long-term water balance equation is used to validate and select the most suitable long-term average annual actual evapotranspiration equations for nine subbasins. Then, the most suitable method, the Pike equation, is used to calibrate parameters of the complementary relationship models and the WB model at each station. The results show that the advection aridity (AA) model more closely estimates actual evapotranspiration than does the Granger and Gray (GG) model especially considering the annual and summer evapotranspiration when compared with the WB model estimates. The results from the AA model and the WB model are then used to analyze spatial and temporal changing characteristics of the actual evapotranspiration over the basin. The analysis shows that the annual actual evapotranspirations during 1960–2002 exhibit similar decreasing trends in most parts of the Haihe River basin for the AA and WB models. Decreasing trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which directly affect water supply and the energy available for actual evapotranspiration respectively, jointly lead to the decrease in actual evapotranspiration in the basin. A weakening of the water cycle seems to have appeared, and as a consequence, the water supply capacity has been on the decrease, aggravating water shortage and restricting sustainable social and economic development in the region.     

How is water availability related to the land use and morphology of an inland valley wetland in Kenya?

Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.     

Effectiveness of introducing crop coefficient and leaf area index to enhance evapotranspiration simulations in hydrologic models

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential component of the hydrological cycle and plays a critical role in water resource management. However, ET is often overlooked in order to transform rainfall to runoff for better streamflow simulation. Hydrological models are commonly used to estimate areal actual evapotranspiration (AET) after calibration against observed discharge. However, classical approaches are often inadequate to appropriately simulate other hydrologic components. Hence, it is important to introduce natural heterogeneity to enhance hydrological processes and reduce water balance errors. In this study, the effectiveness of introducing a constant crop coefficient (K_c), flux tower‐based K_c, and leaf area index (LAI) to three hydrological models (Three‐Parametric Hydrologic Model [TPHM], Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier [GR4J], and Catchment hydrologic cycle Assessment Tool [CAT]) is assessed for the simulation of daily streamflow and AET in a mountainous mixed forest watershed (8.54 km²) in South Korea. The results show that the streamflow simulations after introduction of K_c and LAI to the original models are quite similar. However, the effectiveness of the AET estimation was significantly enhanced after introduction of the flux tower‐based K_c and LAI. The information criterion computed to compare the models reveals that the flux tower‐based K_c‐simulated AET demonstrated better agreement with the observed AET. The Pearson's correlation coefficients (R²) of the TPHM (8%), GR4J (55%), and CAT (55%) models also showed improvements that were greater than the constant based K_c simulation. Similarly, the limitations of the three models with respect to capturing seasonal variation as well as high and low flows were enhanced after the introduction of the flux tower‐based K_c, which adequately reproduced hydrological processes with minimum water balance errors and bias. A regression analysis revealed the potential of estimating K_c as a linear function of LAI (R² = 0.84). The results of this study indicate that introduction of K_c and LAI to the conceptual rainfall–runoff models can be considered an effective approach to reduce water balance errors and uncertainties in hydrological models and improve the reliability of climate change studies and water resource management.     

Performance of WASMOD and SWAT on hydrological simulation in Yingluoxia watershed in northwest of China

Two hydrological models with different structures and spatial capabilities are selected to simulate the runoff and actual evapotranspiration (AET) in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin in northwest of China, to validate their performances in simulating hydrological processes. They are calibrated against the observed runoff at the watershed outlet (Yingluoxia station) for the period from 1990 to 1996 and validated for the period from 1997 to 2000. Results show that in terms of the simulated hydrograph against observations and the two selected objective functions, the conceptual, lumped Water And Snow balance MODeling system (WASMOD) with simple model structure could give the same, even better results than the semi‐distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with complex structure. Compared with other model applications to the watershed, simulation for monthly runoff made in this study seems better. With regard to AET, results calculated from both models are comparable as well. Both WASMOD and SWAT are proved to be suitable and satisfactory tools in simulating hydrological processes in the study area, although both of them have strengths and limitations in applications. WASMOD model may be one of the promising alternatives in hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.