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1.
碳酸盐岩裸露区地震勘探采集方法   总被引:14,自引:4,他引:14       下载免费PDF全文
复杂构造条件下碳酸盐岩裸露地区油气地震勘探是世界性难题.本文针对中国南方碳酸盐岩裸露区的特点,用岩石力学、岩石物理学理论分析了该条件下进行地震勘探涉及的难题,提出了在地震勘探数据采集方面解决问题的方案、对策与建议.主要包括:1)合理选择激发井深,采用单深井/组合井激发(必须打穿风化层5~7m,药包应尽可能在均匀介质中激发);2)采用饱和激发;采用泥浆闷井,提高激发的弹性性质与纵波的激发效果;3)在激发上选用炸热高、爆容大、做功力大的炸药;饱和激发满足最大能量准则,最佳药量激发满足最大信噪比准则.地质任务实现要求符合最大信噪比准则;4)采用高覆盖次数、中间放炮;5)应用面向目标的动态观测系统设计技术,小道距施工技术,因地制宜选择炮点;6)采用多种手段提高检波器的耦合效果(贴泥饼、水泥/石膏固结、挖坑埋置等).文中给出各种实例,并结合实例就几个关键问题进行了探讨.  相似文献   

2.
Mineral weathering rates and a forest macronutrient uptake stoichiometry were determined for the forested, metabasaltic Hauver Branch watershed in north‐central Maryland, USA. Previous studies of Hauver Branch have had an insufficient number of analytes to permit determination of rates of all the minerals involved in chemical weathering, including biomass. More equations in the mass‐balance matrix were added using existing mineralogic information. The stoichiometry of a deciduous biomass term was determined using multi‐year weekly to biweekly stream‐water chemistry for a nearby watershed, which drains relatively unreactive quartzite bedrock. At Hauver Branch, calcite hosts ~38 mol% of the calcium ion (Ca2+) contained in weathering minerals, but its weathering provides ~90% of the stream water Ca2+. This occurs in a landscape with a regolith residence time of more than several Ka (kiloannum). Previous studies indicate that such old regolith does not typically contain dissolving calcite that affects stream Ca2+/Na+ ratios. The relatively high calcite dissolution rate likely reflects dissolution of calcite in fractures of the deep critical zone. Of the carbon dioxide (CO2) consumed by mineral weathering, calcite is responsible for approximately 27%, with the silicate weathering consumption rate far exceeding that of the global average. The chemical weathering of mafic terrains in decaying orogens thus may be capable of influencing global geochemical cycles, and therefore, climate, on geological timescales. Based on carbon‐balance calculations, atmospheric‐derived sulfuric acid is responsible for approximately 22% of the mineral weathering occurring in the watershed. Our results suggest that rising air temperatures, driven by global warming and resulting in higher precipitation, will cause the rate of chemical weathering in the Hauver Branch watershed to increase until a threshold temperature is reached. Beyond the threshold temperature, increased recharge would produce a shallower groundwater table and reduced chemical weathering rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1–5 km2 in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing. The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km2) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.  相似文献   

4.
A long-term salt balance model is coupled with the small catchment water balance model presented in Part 1 of this series of papers. The salt balance model was designed as a simple robust, conceptually based model of the fundamental salt fluxes and stores in forested and cleared catchments. The model has four interdependent stores representing salt storage in the unsaturated zone, the deep permanent saturated groundwater system, the near-stream perched groundwater system and in a ‘salt bulge’ just above the permanent water-table. The model has performed well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in south-west Western Australia. When applied to Wights catchment the salt balance model was able to predict the stream salinities prior to clearing of native forests, and the increased salinities after the clearing.  相似文献   

5.
A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.  相似文献   

6.
Streamwater quality can be affected by climate-related variability in hydrologic state, which controls flow paths and affects biogeochemical processes. Thirty-one years of input/output solute fluxes at Panola Mountain Research Watershed, a small, forested, seasonally water-limited watershed near Atlanta, Georgia, were used to quantify the effects of climatic-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes. Streamwater fluxes were estimated for ten solutes from weekly and event sample concentrations using regression-based methods. The most pertinent storage attribute (current or antecedent watershed, shallow, and deep storage) for each solute was determined by fitting separate concentration relationships. The concentration-discharge relationships varied more for reactive solutes such as potassium, sulfate, and DOC and less for weathering products (base cations and dissolved silica) and conservative chloride. Many solutes exhibited higher concentrations when storage levels were lower or wetting up, which was likely the result of the concentrating effects of evapotranspiration and/or the buildup and flushing of weathering products associated with longer residence times. The impacts of storage modeling on annual fluxes varied by solute, ranging from about 5% (magnesium) to 52% (nitrate) as relative standard deviations, and sufficiently removed climate-related patterns observed in streamwater concentrations. Sulfate was particularly mobilized following growing season droughts but only if deep storage was sufficiently recharged, possibly indicating that sulfides in the deep storage pool were oxidized to sulfate during droughts and mobilized when re-wetted. The lack of streamwater sulfate response to 61% declines in atmospheric deposition indicates the importance of watershed biogeochemical processes on controls of streamwater export of sulfate. The approach of explicitly incorporating storage in the streamwater concentration modeling elucidated the effects of climate on streamwater water-quality and may provide insight into the effects of climatic change on future fluxes.  相似文献   

7.
We studied the relationships between streamwater chemistry and the topography of subcatchments in the Dorokawa watershed in Hokkaido Island, northern Japan, to examine the use of topography as a predictor of streamwater chemistry in a watershed with relatively moderate terrain compared with other regions of Japan. Topographic characteristics of the Dorokawa watershed and its subcatchments were expressed as topographic index (TI) values, which ranged from 4·5 to 20·4 for individual grid cells (50 × 50 m2), but averaged from 6·4 to 7·4 for the 20 subcatchments. Streamwater samples for chemical analyses were collected four times between June and October 2002 from 20 locations in the watershed. The pH of water that passed through the watershed increased from ~5·0 to 7·0, with major increases in Na+ and Ca2+ and marked decreases in NO3? and SO . Distinctive spatial patterns were observed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and NO3? concentrations of streamwater across the watershed. Statistical analyses indicated significant linear relationships between the average TI values of subcatchments and DOC, DON, and NO3? concentrations. Furthermore, the proportion of DOC in streamwaters in the wet season increased with TI values relative to other nitrogen species, whereas NO3? concentrations decreased with TI. The gradients of soil wetness and the presence of wetlands explained many of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of DOC, DON, and NO3? concentrations in the surface waters of the Dorokawa watershed. Our results suggest that the TI is especially useful for predicting the spatial distribution of DOC, DON and NO3? in the surface waters of Hokkaido, where topographical relief is moderate and wetlands more common than in other regions of Japan. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Many researchers have examined the impact of detailed soil spatial information on hydrological modelling due to the fact that such information serves as important input to hydrological modelling, yet is difficult and expensive to obtain. Most research has focused on the effects at single scales; however, the effects in the context of spatial aggregation across different scales are largely missing. This paper examines such effects by comparing the simulated runoffs across scales from watershed models based on two different levels of soil spatial information: the 10‐m‐resolution soil data derived from the Soil‐Land Inference Model (SoLIM) and the 1:24000 scale Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database in the United States. The study was conducted at three different spatial scales: two at different watershed size levels (referred to as full watershed and sub‐basin, respectively) and one at the model minimum simulation unit level. A fully distributed hydrologic model (WetSpa) and a semi‐distributed model (SWAT) were used to assess the effects. The results show that at the minimum simulation unit level the differences in simulated runoff are large, but the differences gradually decrease as the spatial scale of the simulation units increases. For sub‐basins larger than 10 km2 in the study area, stream flows simulated by spatially detailed SoLIM soil data do not significantly vary from those by SSURGO. The effects of spatial scale are shown to correlate with aggregation effect of the watershed routing process. The unique findings of this paper provide an important and unified perspective on the different views reported in the literature concerning how spatial detail of soil data affects watershed modelling. Different views result from different scales at which those studies were conducted. In addition, the findings offer a potentially useful basis for selecting details of soil spatial information appropriate for watershed modelling at a given scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Marathwada Agricultural University, Pharbani, has developed about 560 hectares of Wagarwadi watershed in Pharbani district since 1987. Groundwater monitoring on 16 observations wells at weekly intervals commenced in January 1992, and rainfall and pan evaporation has been measured daily at a hydrometeorological station situated in the nearby university campus. Aquifer parameters, namely, transmissivity and specific yield, have been estimated by carrying out a pumping test on a large diameter well. Groundwater recharge resulting from rainfall has been estimated using a water balance model of the soil moisture zone considering soil zone thickness and crops grown. The SCS (Soil Conservation Service) curve number method was used for surface runoff estimation. The groundwater flow model has been constructed using the nested squares, finite difference method. Nested square meshes of sizes 160 m×160 m and 80 m×80 m have been used and the steady-state condition of aquifer system was simulated in the model assuming the June 1992 water level configuration under equilibrium conditions. The model has been calibrated for transient conditions incorporating additional seepage from the water harvesting structures and their contribution to the groundwater regime has been assessed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
A cell‐based long‐term hydrological model (CELTHYM) that can be integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) was developed to predict continuous stream flow from small agricultural watersheds. The CELTHYM uses a cell‐by‐cell soil moisture balance approach. For surface runoff estimation, the curve number technique considering soil moisture on a daily basis was used, and release rate was used to estimate baseflow. Evapotranspiration was computed using the FAO modified Penman equation that considered land‐use‐based crop coefficients, soil moisture and the influence of topography on radiation. A rice paddy field water budget model was also adapted for the specific application of the model to East Asia. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to obtain operational information about the model calibration parameters. The CELTHYM was calibrated and verified with measured runoff data from the WS#1 and WS#3 watersheds of the Seoul National University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, in Hwaseong County, Kyounggi Province, South Korea. The WS#1 watershed is comprised of about 35·4% rice paddy fields and 42·3% forest, whereas the WS#3 watershed is about 85·0% forest and 11·5% rice paddy fields. The CELTHYM was calibrated for the parameter release rate, K, and soil moisture storage coefficient, STC, and results were compared with the measured runoff data for 1986. The validation results for WS#1 considering all daily stream flow were poor with R2, E2 and RMSE having values of 0·40, ?6·63 and 9·69 (mm), respectively, but validation results for days without rainfall were statistically significant (R2 = 0·66). Results for WS#3 showed good agreement with observed data for all days, and R2, E2 and RMSE were 0·92, 0·91 and 2·23 (mm), respectively, suggesting potential for CELTHYM application to other watersheds. The direct runoff and water balance components for watershed WS#1 with significant areas of paddy fields did not perform well, suggesting that additional study of these components is needed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The present effect of watershed subdivision on simulated water balance components using the thoroughly tested Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been evaluated for the Nagwan watershed in eastern India. Observed meteorological and hydrological data (daily rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and runoff) for the years 1995 to 1998 were collected and used. The watershed and sub‐watershed boundaries, slope and soil texture maps were generated using a geographical information system. A supervised classification method was used for land‐use/cover classification from satellite imagery of 1996. In order to study the effect of watershed subdivision, the watershed was spatially defined into three decomposition schemes, namely a single watershed, and 12 and 22 sub‐watersheds. The simulation using the SWAT model was done for a period of 4 years (1995 to 1998). Results of the study showed a perfect water balance for the Nagwan watershed under all of the decomposition schemes. Results also revealed that the number and size of sub‐watersheds do not appreciably affect surface runoff. Except for runoff, there was a marked variation in the individual components of the water balance under the three decomposition schemes. Though the runoff component of the water balance showed negligible variation among the three cases, variations were noticed in the other components: evapotranspiration (5 to 48%), percolation (2 to 26%) and soil water content (0·30 to 22%). Thus, based on this study, it is concluded that watershed subdivision has a significant effect on the water balance components. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
13.
The quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by internal and external drivers. Watershed models have become essential tools to understand the behaviour of a catchment under dynamic processes. In this study, a physically based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy. The model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963–1970 and 1971–1978, respectively. Eighteen parameters were evaluated, and the model showed high relative sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters than the surface flow parameters. An analysis of annual hydrological water balance was performed for the entire upper Tiber watershed and selected subbasins. The overall behaviour of the watershed was represented by three categories of parameters governing surface flow, subsurface flow and whole basin response. The base flow contribution has shown that 60% of the streamflow is from shallow aquifer in the subbasins. The model evaluation statistics that evaluate the agreement between the simulated and the observed streamflow at the outlet of a watershed and other three different subbasins has shown a coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.68 to 0.81 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) between 0.51 and 0.8 for the validation period. The components of the hydrologic cycle showed variation for dry and wet periods within the watershed for the same parameter sets. On the basis of the calibrated parameters, the model can be used for the prediction of the impact of climate and land use changes and water resources planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
In Mediterranean regions, the marked climatic seasonality and uneven precipitation distribution complicate the application of isotope mass balances to obtain meaningful basin-wide annual average evaporation rates. In the present study, a mass balance approach carried out on the Tavignanu River watershed in Corsica (France), showed unrealistic evaporation rate estimates: 10% for 2017–2018 and 1% for 2018–2019. This suggests that not only does evaporation alter the seasonal isotopic composition in the river, but that there is complex variability of the dominant water reservoirs contributing to the streamflow. Therefore, we propose a modified mass balance approach, including monthly quantifications of different water sources contributing to the river discharge. This allows the discrimination of isotopic variation occurring by evaporation from that originating by mixing processes. By applying this modified approach, we estimated evaporation rates on the Tavignanu River watershed that were in good agreement with results obtained by hydrological modelling: 40% for 2017–2018 and 46% for 2018–2019, respectively. An uncertainty analysis showed that evaporation rates obtained with the modified isotopic approach are close to those obtained with the non-modified approach. Therefore, we recommend using this modified isotope mass balance approach to estimate evaporation rates in such regions as the Mediterranean with high seasonality in hydrological processes.  相似文献   

15.
An adequately tested soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied to the runoff and sediment yield of a small agricultural watershed in eastern India using generated rainfall. The capability of the model for generating rainfall was evaluated for a period of 18 years (1981–1998). The watershed and subwatershed boundaries, drainage networks, slope, soil series and texture maps were generated using a geographical information system (GIS). A supervised classification method was used for land‐use/cover classification from satellite imageries. Model simulated monthly rainfall for the period of 18 years was compared with observations. Simulated monthly rainfall, runoff and sediment yield values for the monsoon season of 8 years (1991–1998) were also compared with their observed values. In general monthly average rainfall predicted by the model was in close agreement with the observed monthly average values. Also, simulated monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield using generated rainfall compared well with observed values during the monsoon season of the years 1991–1998. Results of this study revealed that the SWAT model can generate monthly average rainfall satisfactorily and thereby can produce monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield close to the observed values. Therefore, it can be concluded that the SWAT model could be used for developing a multiple year management plan for the critical erosion prone areas of a small watershed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
This study was undertaken to test the utility of a geographical information systems (GIS) approach to problems of watershed mass balance. This approach proved most useful in exploring the effects that watershed scale, lithology and land use have on chemical weathering rates, and in assessing whether mass balance calculations could be applied to large multilithological watersheds. Water quality data from 52 stations were retrieved from STORET and a complete GIS database consisting of the watershed divide, lithology and land use was compiled for each station. Water quality data were also obtained from 7 experimental watersheds to develop a methodology to estimate annual fluxes from incomplete data sets. The methodology consists of preparing a composite of daily flux data, calculating a best fit sinusoid and integrating the equation to obtain an annual flux. Comparison with annual fluxes calculated from high resolution data sets suggests that this method predicts fluxes within about 10% of the true annual flux. Annual magnesium fluxes (moles km−2 yr−1) were calculated for all stations and adjusted for fluxes from atmospheric deposition. Magnesium flux was found to be a strong function of the amount of carbonate in the watershed, and silica fluxes were found to increase with the fraction of sandstone present in the watershed. All fluxes were strongly influenced by mining practices, with magnesium fluxes from affected watersheds being 6–10 times higher than fluxes from comparable pristine watersheds. Mining practices enhance chemical weathering by increasing the surface area of unweathered rock to which water has access and by increasing acidity and rate of mineral weathering. Fluxes were also found to increase with watershed size. This scale dependence is most likely caused by the sensitivity of weathering fluxes to even minor quantities of carbonates, which are likely to be found in all lithologies at larger scales. Mass balances were carried out in watersheds where gauged sub-watersheds made up more than 95% of the area. The calculations show large magnesium flux and water balance discrepancies. These errors may be a result of significant groundwater inputs to streams between gauges. The results suggest that improvements in how we measure discharge and estimate fluxes may be required before we can apply mass balance techniques to larger scales. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Phosphorus (P) export from the Foron River watershed was intensively monitored. Water was analysed for total P, soluble total P, soluble orthophosphate and suspended solids. Watershed soils and river sediments were sampled and the size fraction <0·2 mm analysed for total P, water extractable P, bioavailable P, 1 minute exchangeable P and P fixation capacity. Interstitial waters were analysed for soluble total P. Four hydrological conditions recurred, two during low river flows and two during increased flow. The first occurs in dry weather with a constant or decreasing flow over at least seven days and when there is no surface runoff. Exported phosphorus, predominately soluble and bioavailable, is from point sources. Phosphorus inputs exceed P export so P accumulates in the river. The second condition occurs when a small storm flow increases the average seven-day flow to exceed the preceding weekly average. Phosphorus export exceeds P inputs and originates from urban runoff, point sources and release of P stored in the river. Exported P is largely particulate but highly bioavailable. The third condition is when substantial runoff follows at least a seven-day period of constant or decreasing flow. Phosphorus export is from diffuse urban runoff. All the P stored is exported. Exported P is highly bioavailable. High concentrations and fluxes of P export are often seen. The fourth condition happens when the soils are wet and increased flow is from both urban and agricultural runoff. Phosphorus export from diffuse agricultural runoff predominates and is largely not bioavailable. Phosphorus concentrations are low but export fluxes are high when flows are high. These hydrological conditions, when integrated with concepts of mass balance define a phosphorus export typology comprising four regimes. These regimes explain total phosphorus (TP) storage, transport and export patterns, changes in P speciation and allow identification of probable sources of TP in the Foron river watershed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The paper describes a hydrological model for agricultural water intervention in a community watershed at Kothapally in India, developed through integrated management and a consortium approach. The impacts of various soil and water management interventions in the watershed are compared to no‐intervention during a 30‐year simulation period by application of the calibrated and validated ARCSWAT 2005 (Version 2.1.4a) modelling tool. Kothapally receives, on average, 800 mm rainfall in the monsoon period. 72% of total rainfall is converted as evaporation and transpiration (ET), 20% is stored by groundwater aquifer, and 8% exported as outflow from the watershed boundary in current water interventions. ET, groundwater recharge and outflow under no‐intervention conditions are found to be 64, 9, and 19%, respectively. Check dams helped in storing water for groundwater recharge, which can be used for irrigation, as well minimising soil loss. In situ water management practices improved the infiltration capacity and water holding capacity of the soil, which resulted in increased water availability by 10–30% and better crop yields compared to no‐intervention. Water outflows from the developed watershed were more than halved compared to no‐intervention, indicating potentially large negative downstream impacts if these systems were to be implemented on a larger scale. On the other hand, in the watershed development program, sediment loads to the streams were less than one‐tenth. It can be concluded that the hydrological impacts of large‐scale implementation of agricultural water interventions are significant. They result in improved rain‐fed agriculture and improved productivity and livelihood of farmers in upland areas while also addressing the issues of poverty, equity, and gender in watersheds. There is a need for case‐specific studies of such hydrological impacts along with other impacts in terms of equity, gender, sustainability, and development at the mesoscale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
This study aims to assess watershed‐scale impacts of changing climate on sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticide (atrazine) fluxes over the 21st century at the watershed scale. In particular, changes in dissolved and particulate forms of water quality constituents in response to climate change are investigated. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and evaluated in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States to simulate hydrologic and water quality processes on a daily basis over the 2015–2099 time horizon. The model was then driven with 112 distinct statistically downscaled climate projections representing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Projected hydrologic and water quality responses were categorized according to the three IPCC SRES emission scenarios for summarizing and synthesizing results over early‐century (2015–2034), mid‐century (2045–2064) and late‐century (2080–2099) assessment. Results revealed clear warming trends in the study area, whereas small increases in precipitation were predicted. Streamflow, sediment and total nutrient loads did not differ noticeably between assessment periods. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased significantly from early‐century to late‐century periods. With the exception of total atrazine in the mid‐century period, predicted pollutant loads for a given assessment period did not differ between emission pathways for a given assessment period. Changes in pollutant fluxes showed pronounced monthly variability. The projected increase in readily available forms of nutrients has important implications for the ecological health of water systems and management of drinking water supplies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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