我国火山监测研究的思路

本文概述了火山研究对于防御火山灾害、减轻火山活动造成的人民生命财产的损失、丰富和发展地球科学理论以及对火山资源的开发利用等具有极其重要意义。根据我国火山主要是死火山和休眠火山的特点,借鉴国外火山监测研究经验和成果,论述了我国火山监测研究,以黑龙江五大连池火山研究为起点,以火山监测研究和背景基础研究为主要内容,并注意同日本和苏联远东地区的火山带开展对比研究。提出了近期主要研究课题方向。按照系统理论思想方法,采取对内对外横向联合的综合合作研究途径。     

地震预测研究的几点建议

地震预测研究面临低水平的预测与政府和公众高期望值的矛盾,认为加强机理研究是根本出路之一。从震源物理和地震前兆研究的现状、特点、研究的方法等方面进行阐述,明确需要进一步研究和关注的问题,并提出几点建议。应找出新思路,发展适合我国大陆地质条件的震源物理理论和方法。     

跨越断层埋地管线地震反应研究述评

本文论述了跨越断层埋地管线地震反应研究工作概况,包括理论研究和实验研究的进展,并介绍了不同情况下采用的研究方法和建立的相应的研究模型,通过对数据结果进行整理分析,得出跨越断层埋地管线地震反应规律。同时,本文还对埋地管线研究中的一些重要参数对研究结果的影响作了详尽的阐述,提出了需进一步研究的问题和今后可能的研究发展方向。     

"地震数值模拟的数据库应用平台"项目成果介绍

利用计算机模拟复杂的系统和过程,是当今世界科技发展的新潮流,在地学领域,数值模拟已经渗透到地学研究的各个重大领域。本项目提出建立一个用于地震模拟和预报的数据库应用平台,以地壳动力学研究和强震机理研究为应用核心,将地震地质研究、地形变研究、地应力研究、地球内部结构研究等多种相关的学科手段的观测资料、实验结果和理论分析有机地结合起来,实现技术和数据资源的共享。利用这些信息构建比较合理的地球模型和尽可能多的约束条件,并在有限元分析系统上进行地壳形变和地震过程的数值模拟。     

前兆研究的进展,困难和建议

本文试图从仪器研制,监测、预报和通讯系统建设,排除干扰、识别异常和分析预报方法的研究,以及前兆机理和震源物理等方面,简要地总结近十年我国地震前兆研究的进展。又从机理研究、统计检验以及提高仪器灵敏度和抑制干扰之间的矛盾等方面讨论了前兆研究在科学技术上面临的困难,同时分析了当前发展前兆研究面临的经费需求矛盾。最后,对今后如何进一步开展前兆研究提出了若干建议。     

日本地震预报研究的课题与展望

1987年初,日本地震学者分别召开座谈会和大型地震预报研究讨论会,总结执行第五个地震预报五年计划的进展和成果,研究当前地震预报研究中存在的问题,探讨今后地震预报研究的方向和第六个五年计划的重点,提出了当前面临的和今后应加以推进的地震预报研究的课题和对未来的设想。     

隐伏活动构造探测研究的若干问题讨论

文中通过国内外隐伏活动构造研究发展历史回顾与最新研究动态的分析 ,提出了当前隐伏活动构造在浅部精细特征研究、深浅构造关系研究和高新技术手段运用等方面存在的不足和问题。为适应隐伏活动构造研究不断发展的需要 ,作者认为 ,以浅层物探、系列钻探和新年代研究为支点 ,开展多学科手段的综合定量研究是深化这一研究的基础 ,而进行隐伏活动构造的科学分类、准确定位和最新一期活动性研究是当前研究的主要目标     

韧性城市研究进展

研究从韧性城市的概念和其主要研究领域两个方面来梳理其国内外研究进展,发现国外已形成社区韧性、城市网络韧性、城市灾害恢复力和城市灾害风险评估四个研究方面.而国内研究因起步晚,其研究深度和国外相比差距显著,基本处于概念及综述研究阶段。整体来看,韧性城市研究在区域宏观层面已初见成效,在城市中观和微观层面略显不足。     

观察对象

古生物学的研究对象是化石。对化石的研究包括野外和室内两个阶段。野外阶段主要是采集标本和收集观察资料。采集和观察总的要求是量多质好,具体要求随研究任务而定,例如作生物地层研究．     

区域滑坡时间分布的自相似性研究

滑坡时间分布是滑坡预测和预警报研究的关键内容,对一定区域滑坡分布时间规律的研究可为区域滑坡预测和预警报提供参考和指导。本文以长江三峡库区滑坡为研究对象,对滑坡的年际分布和月份分布的相似性分别进行了研究。结果表明,两种时间的分布规律具有较好的相似性,且滑坡规模越接近,相似性程度越高。对滑坡时间分布的相似性研究,为应用分形理论研究该区域滑坡时间分布规律提供了理论基础。     

Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell?CMcGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang?CTang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.     

地震危险性概率分析与洪水频度分析的对比

地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)最初是从相类似的洪水、风暴问题的分析方法发展而来的,而且被完整的应用到风险分析中。后来,PSHA被直接引入到地震动非确定性分析。如此直接引入非确定性分析缺乏清楚的物理基础,使人在非确定性分析中很难理解、解释和运用PSHA。这一困难导致了诸如房     

利用逐步回归分析红山地磁台观测数据质量

选用逐步回归分析方法,利用红山地磁台2009年观测数据的基线值数据,计算台站地磁观测系统的温度系数与滑动系数以及年剩余均方差,通过这3个指标的结果,给出观测系统受这3个参数影响的程度,为控制红山台地磁观测数据的质量提供依据.同时,对台站合理的选用基线值提供有力帮助.     

Analysis of GPS Measurements in Eastern Canada Using Principal Component Analysis

Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) position time series from eastern North America constrain the pattern and magnitude of regional crustal deformation. Initial analysis delineates consistent uplift patterns, as expected from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions, but the associated horizontal deformation is not definitive, in part due to the short time periods for a significant number of the available stations. We employ an eigenpattern decomposition in order to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for this continuous GPS data. Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena, the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen–Loeve expansion (KLE). The KLE technique is used to identify the important modes in both time and space for the CGPS data, modes that potentially include signals such as horizontal and vertical GIA, tectonic strain, and seasonal effects. Here we filter both the vertical and horizontal velocity patterns on different spatiotemporal scales in order to study the potential geophysical sources, after the removal of correlated and random noise. The method is successful in disaggregating the linear vertical signal from more variable and less spatially correlated signals. The vertical and horizontal results are compared to the predictions of the ICE-3G GIA loading model with a number of plausible mantle viscosity profiles. The horizontal velocity analysis allows for qualitative differentiation between several potential GIA models and suggests that, with longer time series, this technique can be employed to remove correlated noise and improve estimates of crustal strain patterns and their sources.     

宁夏地球物理台网跟踪分析典型事件浅析

基于地球物理台网观测数据跟踪分析软件,产出2018年1月至12月宁夏地球物理观测台网（以下简称宁夏台网）数据跟踪分析典型事件并根据台站反馈结果和台网审核意见,从观测系统故障、自然环境干扰、场地环境干扰、人为干扰、地球物理事件等六个方面综合分析了年度典型事件,并且探讨了此类事件的数据背景及近年来数据的发展情况。     

小波分析方法在宁夏短水准资料分析中的应用

建立了小波分解模型,应用该模型将宁夏红果子形变台及苏峪口形变台短水准观测资料中的不同周期成分进行了有效分离。分离后的3阶近似及3阶细节部分所显示的异常变化能够更直观和显著地对应宁夏及周边地区发生的地震。     

抗震分析反应谱法和时程分析法数值仿真比较

基于ANSYS有限元软件比较抗震分析反应谱法和时程分析法的地震数值仿真结果,研究二者的共同性和仿真结果的可比较性。结果表明,反应谱法和时程分析法在抗震反应计算中都体现了地震动特性和结构动态特性对结构地震响应的影响,二者在响应最值和响应频率上的仿真结果具有一致性。     

Airborne Gradiometry Error Analysis

Gravity gradiometry is one of the older methods of determining the Earth’s local gravitational field, but lies in the shadow of more conventional static and moving-base gravimeter-based systems. While the static torsion balance appears to have been relegated to the museum, support for the airborne and space-borne differential accelerometer (gradiometer) continues so as to overcome limitations in spatial resolution and accuracy inherent in ordinary moving-base gravimetry. One airborne system exists, building on 30 year old technology concepts, and new technologies (e.g., cold-atom interferometry) promise significant improvements. Concomitant advances are required to measure accurately the angular velocity and angular acceleration of the platform, which inseparably combine (in an absolute sense) with the Earth’s gravitational gradients. A numerical analysis of instrument errors, with simulated aircraft dynamics, shows that navigation-grade gyros are just sufficient to account for these effects in gradiometers with 1E/ sensitivity. More accurate instruments, with 0.1 E/ sensitivity, require commensurate sensitivity in the gyros, of the order of 0.01°/h/ = 1.5\times10^{−4 °} \ for typical survey aircraft dynamics. On the other hand, typical orientation errors in the platform, which are problematic for vector gravimetry, are much less of a concern in gradiometry. They couple to the gradient signals and affect only the very low frequencies of the total gradient error.