Global climatic change,hurricanes, and a tropical forest

Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO₂ (2 × CO₂), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity.     

Wind and wind forces in a plantation spruce forest

Observations have been made of the tubulent structure within and above a dense (LAI=10.2) plantation spruce forest along with measurements of the movement of individual trees. The mean statistics of the turbulence and the turbulence spectra are compared with observations in other crops and complementary wind-tunnel studies using 175 scale plastic trees. The measurements show that momentum transport and the subsequent motion of the trees is dominated by intermittent sweep/ejection events associated with honami waves moving across the forest. The trees themselves act as forced damped harmonic oscillators and appear to short circuit the normal turbulent energy dissipation process by efficiently absorbing energy at their resonant frequencies. It is argued that understanding the nature and formation of honami waves over forests and crops is a crucial problem in agricultural and forest meteorology because of their important role both in turbulent transport and in causing wind damage.     

Calculating downward longwave radiation under clear and cloudy conditions over a tropical lowland forest site: an evaluation of model schemes for hourly data

Field measurements of radiation fluxes—notably downwelling longwave radiation flux (LW flux)—are as yet rare or nonexistent outside a very select number of sites in the tropics. Data gaps can only be filled through the use of estimation schemes based on measurements of other meteorological variables, and there is a need for recommendations on best practice in this area. We selected 18 contrasting semi-empirical estimation schemes for downward longwave radiation, based on air emissivities, combined with six different sky cover estimation schemes and compared the expected longwave flux with hourly observations from a flux tower at Caxiuan? in Brazil. Of all schemes tested, the Dilley–Kimball emissivity scheme combined with Kasten and Czeplak’s sky cover scheme during the day and Dilley and O’Brien’s model B scheme at night proved to be the most reliable, yielding estimates of LW flux generally within 20?W/m² of measurements across all time points.     

Variations in surface ozone and NOx at Kannur: a tropical, coastal site in India

Continuous measurements of surface ozone (O₃), NOx (NO + NO₂) and meteorological parameters have been made in Kannur (11.9?°N, 75.4?°E, 5?m asl), India from November 2009 to October 2010. It was observed that O₃ and NOx showed distinct diurnal and seasonal variabilities at this site. The annual average diurnal profile of O₃ showed a peak of (30.3?±?10.4) ppbv in the late afternoon and a minimum of (3.2?±?0.7) ppbv in the early morning. The maximum value of O₃ mixing ratio was observed in winter (44?±?3.1) ppbv and minimum during monsoon (18.46?±?3.5) ppbv. The rate of production of O₃ was found to be higher in December (10.1?ppbv/h) and lower in July (1.8?ppbv/h) during the time interval 0800?C1000?h. A correlation coefficient of 0.52 for the relationship between O₃ and [NO₂]/[NO] reveals the role of NO₂ photolysis that generates O₃ at this site. The correlation between O₃ and meteorological parameters indicate the influence of seasonal changes on O₃ production. Investigations were further extended to explore the week day weekend variations in O₃ mixing ratio at an urban site reveals the enhancement of O₃. The variations of O₃ mixing ratio with seasonal air mass flows were elucidated with the aid of backward air trajectories. This study also indicates how vapor phase organic species present in the ambient air at this location may influence the complex chemistry involving (VOCs) that enhances the production of O₃ at this location.     

Formation and chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols in an equatorial forest area

The physical properties and the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols have been studied in an equatorial region in the southern Congo (Africa). Field experiments were conducted between 1978 and 1983 in the equatorial forest of the Mayombe during periods where the influence of biomass burning was minimum. The results indicate that the forest is a net source of both fine particles resulting primarily from gas-to-particle conversion and coarse particles produced by mechanical processes. Carbonaceous matter is the major component of these biogenic particles but the forest is also a significant source of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium and potassium. Half of this carbon is attached to submicron particles and likely derives from organic gaseous precursors naturally emitted by the local biosphere.Presented at the international Symposium Influence of marine and terrestrial biosphere on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, held in Mainz, F.R.G., on 16–22 March 1986.     

Modeling land surface phenology in a mixed temperate forest using MODIS measurements of leaf area index and land surface temperature

The development of satellite-derived vegetation indices and metrics has enabled researchers to monitor land surface phenology (LSP). While the use of satellite data to monitor LSP is prevalent, there has been minimal effort to model LSP in temperate climates using satellite observations of the land surface. Satellite-derived LSP models are beneficial for studying past and future changes in phenology and related ecosystem processes (e.g., water, energy, and carbon fluxes). The purpose of this study was to model LSP during the spring in a mixed temperate forest using satellite-derived measurements of leaf area index (LAI) and land surface temperature (LST). As part of the model validation process, the use of LST as a proxy for air temperature to model LSP was also investigated. The results indicate that LST derived from the MODIS Terra sensor at 10:30?a.m. (local solar time) can be used to develop a LSP model that predicts the full profile of LAI from winter dormancy to maturity and the date when LAI reaches half of the annual maximum (LAI_50%) with relatively low error. In addition, the modeled LAI values closely tracked in situ observations of the phenological development of the dominant deciduous tree species located in the study area where the model was developed. A comparison of LST and daily maximum air temperature at two levels above the ground surface revealed distinct differences and nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables. However, accumulated growing degree-days calculated from each of these variables were similar because the largest differences between LST and daily maximum air temperature occurred prior to the beginning of heat accumulation. Consequently, the model predictions of LAI_50% derived from the use of LST and daily maximum air temperature were similar. When the developed model was applied in two other mixed forests, the errors were larger due to substantial interannual variability in the relationship between LAI and heat accumulation and systematic differences in this relationship between sites. Although the model cannot be successfully applied in these other mixed forests, the ability of the model to capture a consistent relationship between satellite estimates of LAI and LST in the study area where it was developed demonstrates that satellite observations of the land surface can be used in certain locations to create LSP phenology models. When validated, the models can be used to examine past and future changes in phenology and related ecosystem processes.     

Correlation between black carbon aerosols, carbon monoxide and tropospheric ozone over a tropical urban site

Black carbon aerosols plays an important role in the earth's radiative balance and little is known of their concentrations, distributions, source strength, and especially the aerosol chemistry of the developing world. The present study addresses the impact of back carbon aerosols on different atmospheric species like CO and tropospheric ozone over an urban environment, namely Hyderabad, India. Ozone concentration varies from 14 to 63 ppbv over the study area. Diurnal variations of ozone suggest that ozone concentration starts increasing gradually after sunrise, attaining a maximum value by evening time and decreasing gradually thereafter. Black carbon (BC) aerosol mass concentrations varies from 1471 to 11,175 ng m⁻³. The diurnal variations of BC suggest that the concentrations are increased by a factor of 2 during morning (06:00–09:00 h) and evening hours (18:00 to 22:00 h) compared to afternoon hours. Positive correlation has been observed between BC and CO (r²=0.74) with an average slope of 6.4×10⁻³ g BC/g CO. The slope between black carbon aerosol mass concentration and tropospheric ozone suggests that every 1 μg m⁻³ increase in black carbon aerosol mass concentration causes a 3.5 μg m⁻³ reduction in tropospheric ozone. The results have been discussed in detail in the paper.     

Soil occupation and atmospheric variations over Sobradinho Lake area. Part two: a regional modeling study

Summary The impact of the changes on soil cover and land use brought about by the construction of the Sobradinho Dam in the semi-arid region of the S?o Francisco River Hydrographic Basin is analyzed by means of a numerical model RAMS. Disregarding the influence of a large scale flow, a set of factors were responsible for the creation of a rather complex circulation system that includes mountain-valley winds, lake breeze (LB) and non-conventional circulation all induced by the surface non-homogeneous aspect. Results have demonstrated that the implementation of works of such magnitude brings about environmental changes in an area that stretches far beyond the surroundings of the reservoir. The soil cover alterations due to the ever increasing development of the area with the presence of irrigated crops in a sparsely vegetated region (caatinga) does affect land surface characteristics, occasioning for that matter the splitting of the available energy into latent and sensible heat fluxes. LB behavior varies in accordance with atmospheric conditions and also in view of the type of vegetation found in the lake surrounding areas. Hydro availability in root zones, even under adverse atmospheric conditions (high temperature and low air humidity) brings up the high rates of evaporation and plant transpiration that contribute towards the increase of humidity and the fall of temperature in lower atmospheric layers.     

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007, and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (≤150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest.     

PM10 and heavy metal measurements in an industrial area of southern Italy

Atmospheric particulate concentrations and heavy metal content are measured from March to July 2001 at an industrial site located in a rural zone of the southern Italy. PM₁₀ samples are collected by a low-volume sampler and each sample is analysed by AAS techniques for its content of Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. We measure also temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, and we collect anemometric data. The study purpose is the investigation of pollutant levels in an industrial area located in a rather unpolluted region and the characterization of the correlation structure among particulate concentrations, heavy metal content and local meteorological parameters. Data analysis is carried out by means of univariate and multivariate statistical methods. In the investigated period, the average value of PM₁₀ daily concentrations (24 μg Nm^− 3) does not exceed the national standard of 40 μg Nm^− 3 and only nine values are higher than the European daily limit value of 50 μg Nm^− 3. Particularly, the occurrence of two anomalous values (183 μg Nm^− 3 in 3 March and 94 μg Nm^− 3 in 22 June) seems to be related to no-local events as confirmed both by in situ data measured in the AQM network of Potenza city (about 10 km far from the study area) and by remote measurements performed in the same days. Regarding the heavy metal levels, we observe high levels of Cr (34 ng Nm^− 3), Ni (85 ng Nm^− 3) and Zn (214 ng Nm^− 3) in agreement with the local industrial source pattern. The multivariate analysis, carried out using meteorological parameters as exogenous variables, allow to evaluate the role of the different variables as driving factors of the correlation structure among the metals.     

Analysis and numerical simulation of the meteorological observations at a tropical coastal site Chennai in India

Meteorological measurements were carried out at North Chennai semi rural area during pre-monsoon period as a part of an air quality study program. Analysis of the data showed the effects of coastal terrain namely the land-sea breeze circulation, temperature cooling during the sea breeze, difference in onset times at these sites etc. Sea breeze onset was observed with a sharp turning of the wind from westerly to south easterly associated with rise in wind speed. Advection speed of the front was about 2.0 m s^− 1. A simple mesoscale meteorological model (MAM-I) developed at Kalpakkam for coastal atmospheric dispersion estimation was used to simulate the observed characteristics. All the major features observed could be simulated by the model while significant difference was noticed in sea breeze frontal movement. MAM results were also inter-compared with MM5. There were no significant differences in the estimate of mean parameters by both the models. It is concluded that the simple model, which takes less run time in a desktop PC, is adequate enough for practical application of providing wind field for plume dispersion models at coastal sites.     

Consequences of actor level livelihood heterogeneity for additionality in a tropical forest payment for environmental services programme with an undifferentiated reward structure

Primary tropical forests provide crucial environmental services, including carbon storage and hydrological regulation. Options for promoting forest conservation include payments for environmental services (PES) programmes that provide financial incentives to local actors, in exchange for reduced forest clearance. The success of voluntary PES (defined in terms of avoided primary forest conversion) is contingent upon behavioural changes in enrolled actors. As both the degree of enrolment and likelihood of sustained behavioural change depend upon how PES compensation structures interact with existing actor economies, local heterogeneity in livelihood strategies may play a strong role in the ultimate success of PES programmes, particularly when compensation is not differentiated with respect to opportunity costs. We examined the influence of livelihood heterogeneity on the potential success of a deforestation-reduction PES with an undifferentiated reward structure. We collected socioeconomic and demographic data at the household and community levels across two large Amazonian extractive reserves where a spatially extensive PES programme (Bolsa Floresta) operates. We show that demographic and socioeconomic status varies widely across households and communities, and found that both households and communities that are most and least likely to convert primary forest receive similar financial incentives. Those households most engaged in manioc agriculture (the primary driver of local primary forest conversion) both benefitted from the highest annual incomes and incurred the greatest opportunity costs. We show that avoided primary forest conversion could be greatly increased with differentiated payment structures adjusted for local differences in opportunity costs and livelihood strategies, and present two metrics that could help to achieve that goal.     

Effects of sea surface temperature, radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on vertical structures of tropical tropospheric temperature: a two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving modeling study

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on the vertical structure of tropical tropospheric temperature are investigated by analyzing 10 two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulation data. The increase of SST, exclusion of diurnal variation of SST, and inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, radiative effects of ice clouds, and ice microphysics could lead to tropical tropospheric warming and increase of tropopause height. The increase of SST and the suppression of its diurnal variation enhance the warming in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively, through increasing latent heat and decreasing IR cooling. The inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle increases the tropospheric warming through increasing solar heating. The inclusion of cloud radiative effects increases tropospheric warming through suppressing IR cooling in the mid and lower troposphere and enhancing solar heating in the upper troposphere. The inclusion of ice microphysics barely increases warming in the mid and lower troposphere because the warming from ice radiative effects is nearly offset by the cooling from ice microphysical effects, whereas it causes the large warming enhancement in the upper troposphere due to the dominance of ice radiative effects. The tropopause height is increased mainly through the large enhancement of IR cooling.     

Population, income and ecological conditions as determinants of forest area variation in the tropics

The underlying causes of forest area variation were studied by using data from the original forest assessments between 1970 and 1991 of FAO FORIS database representing 477 subnational geographical units in 67 tropical countries. Multiple regression modelling was applied to measure the effects. Five ecological variables were used to control the varying ecological conditions in the subnational units. Three variables were used to control the varying reliability of forest inventory data. Population and income variables were found to be significant factors explaining forest area variation after controlling for ecological variation. In particular population density and income per capita turned out to be significant underlying factors of deforestation. The overall conclusion is that determining the factors behind forest area variation helps explaining the causes of deforestation.     

Instability of squall-inducing waves, global sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate change in tropical north Africa

Summary An inviscid form of the hydrodynamical equations is solved with enhanced horizontal shear, which is a synoptic feature consistent with stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in Sahelian dry years, for unstable waves generated along the boundary between the two tropospheric air masses in tropical north Africa (i.e. the moist south-westerlies and the dry north-easterlies). Using a two-layer model of the atmosphere in order to correctly simulate the tropospheric synoptic situation in the sub-region, results show that the mode of the waves which is known to be fundamental to the development of West African squall lines is more unstable in dry years. This instability is found to be most-pronounced when the surface of discontinuity between the south-westerlies and the north-easterlies is at 700 mb level. Further, it is shown that in Sahelian dry years, the zone of these unstable waves shifts slightly southwards. This shift causes a deficit in rainfall in West African isohyet bands north of latitude 12°. The persistence of this deficit is linked with the continuous warming, in July, August and September of the 18-year period 1969–1986, of the three oceans (Indian, Pacific and South Atlantic) whose sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall in tropical north Africa. It is shown that anytime these oceans warm up anomalously, the strength of the AEJ is enhanced leading to the climate-change process of: SST anomaly, increased AEJ strength, southward shift of the zone of squall-inducing waves and consequent reduction in total annual rainfall north of latitude 12° in tropical north Africa.With 5 Figures     

Community forest management (CFM) in south-west Ethiopia: Maintaining forests,biodiversity and carbon stocks to support wild coffee conservation

Community forest management (CFM) is increasingly recognised as a potentially effective way of maintaining forests, especially in the Global South. Despite the growing adoption of this approach, the results have been mixed and there is a need to explore both the ways in which a wider range of benefits can be obtained and how CFM can be implemented more effectively. New forest legislation on community forest management in the Southern Region of Ethiopia in 2012, alongside the development of a highly devolved method of CFM, provided a natural experiment for testing the effectiveness of this method as a way of maintaining forest and also supporting biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. The specific circumstances and details of the methods applied also provided an opportunity to compare this approach against other experiences of CFM to assess factors seen to be influencing success. This study was undertaken in an area of montane forest in south-west Ethiopia, which includes some of the remaining stands of wild Coffea arabica, and so it also sought to create supportive conditions for the in situ conservation of the wild coffee. Analyses of this approach to CFM over the six years show that the loss of forest was reduced to 0.18% per annum in the CFM managed areas compared to 2.6% per annum in the non-CFM forest, while biodiversity, in terms of species diversity, richness and evenness of distribution, was maintained in the natural forest managed under CFM. Carbon storage also increased in the natural forest managed under CFM. While the long-term results will only be seen after several decades, the findings show that the use of a highly devolved form of CFM, responding to felt needs and building up a community of practice were some of the positive influences which helped in achieving multiple impacts towards sustainable forest management and wild coffee conservation.