One possible mechanism for the principal mode of atmospheric low— frequency variability in the northern hemisphere winter

With the specified basic flow in the Northern Hemisphere winter, a study is made of the structure characteristics and mechanism of the principal mode of atmospheric low-frequency variability in terms of a linear barotropic model. Statistical and dynamical analyses of the model results indicate that the mode and the related dominant-forcing excitation zone are featured by evident spatial distribution and that the mechanism responsible for the mode bears re-lation to the zonal asymmetry of the basic flow and the associated barotropic energy conversion.     

Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking

An assessment of six coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is undertaken in order to evaluate their ability in simulating winter atmospheric blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. The poor representation of atmospheric blocking in climate models is a long-standing problem (e.g. D’Andrea et?al. in Clim Dyn 4:385–407, 1998), and despite considerable effort in model development, there is only a moderate improvement in blocking simulation. A modified version of the Tibaldi and Molteni (in Tellus A 42:343–365, 1990) blocking index is applied to daily averaged 500?hPa geopotential fields, from the ERA-40 reanalysis and as simulated by the climate models, during the winter periods from 1957 to 1999. The two preferred regions of blocking development, in the Euro-Atlantic and North Pacific, are relatively well captured by most of the models. However, the prominent error in blocking simulations consists of an underestimation of the total frequency of blocking episodes over both regions. A more detailed analysis revealed that this error was due to an insufficient number of medium spells and long-lasting episodes, and a shift in blocking lifetime distributions towards shorter blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector. In the Pacific, results are more diverse; the models are equally likely to overestimate or underestimate the frequency at different spell lengths. Blocking spatial signatures are relatively well simulated in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while errors in the intensity and geographical location of the blocks emerge in the Pacific. The impact of models’ systematic errors on blocking simulation has also been analysed. The time-mean atmospheric circulation biases affect the frequency of blocking episodes, and the maximum event duration in the Euro-Atlantic region, while they sometimes cause geographical mislocations in the Pacific sector. The analysis of the systematic error in time-variability has revealed a negative relationship between the high-frequency variability of the transient eddies in the areas affected by blocking and blocking frequency. The blocking responses to errors in the low-frequency variability are different according to the region considered; the amplitude of the low-frequency variability is positively related to the blocking frequency and persistence in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while no such consistency is observed in the Pacific.     

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO₂. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO₂, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.     

Boreal winter rainfall anomaly over the tropical indo-pacific and its effect on northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.     

Interrelation of total precipitation over Eurasia with atmospheric centers of action of the northern hemisphere and with major modes of the North Atlantic surface temperature variability

Conventional average values of Wallace-Gutzler indices for the regional circulations and average values of major variability components of the fields of the North Atlantic surface temperature anomalies are plotted on the geographical map used to analyze the total daily precipitation fields. The computation conditions of average values are defined by the dates classified according to three equiprobable gradations of total precipitation. A projection of conditional average values to the precipitation field points enables to estimate the atmospheric and oceanic “tracks” within the marked out gradations of total precipitation. The stratification and computation of characteristics are carried out for the summer and winter seasons. Large regions are revealed of statistically significant interrelation of the atmospheric circulation and major components of variability of the sea surface temperature anomalies with the extreme gradations of total precipitation for summer and winter seasons. The recommendations are formulated for the use of obtained results in the practice of the seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions.     

Possible influences of solar radiation variations on the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere of the earth

The strength of the circumpolar zonal circulation of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere, expressed by an index calculated from the air pressure gradient between 35° N and 65°N, shows a remarkable secular change in this century in the years 1935 to 1938, and probably again in the years after 1970. A contemporary change and parallel course with a high positive correlation can be found in a solar radiation index calculated by means of sunspot numbers and solar faculae areas. A good correlation was also found between this solar radiation index and a series of UV measurements on Mt. Wilson. The possible mechanism of action in the atmosphere will be discussed, and it is shown that this solar radiation index is also correlated with circulation parameters in the troposphere and stratosphere over Europe. There are indications of a decrease of the action from the upper to the lower atmosphere. The consequences of this secular change of circulation for the climatic history in the 20th century in Europe are presented and from that a hypothetical retrospective view of the European climatic history before the 20th century, based on the total series of sunspot numbers, is briefly discussed. In a general view with smoothed data it can be concluded that the sun seems to determine the basic structure of the north hemispheric circulation in middle latitudes, if a strong influence of sunspots and solar faculae on the solar radiation is assumed.     

Intercomparison of the seasonal cycle of tropical surface stress in 17 AMIP atmospheric general circulation models

 The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979–1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. Large model-to-model variations were also seen in the simulations of the annual mean meridional stress field over equatorial Indian Ocean, south central Pacific, north east Pacific and equatorial eastern Pacific oceans. It is shown that the systematic errors in simulating the surface winds are related to the systematic errors in simulating the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in its location and intensity. Weaker than observed annual mean southwesterlies simulated by most models over Somali is due to weaker than observed southwesterlies during the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is related to the weaker than observed land precipitation simulated by most models during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The diversity in simulation of the surface wind over Somali and equatorial Indian ocean is related to the diversity of AGCMs in simulating the precipitation zones in these regions. Received: 2 August 1996 / Accepted: 7 February 1997     

前期春季北太平洋海温异常与冬季北半球极涡的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA海温资料,用EOF、相关分析等方法,分析了1960—2010年500 hPa和100 hPa等压面上北半球后冬(2月)极涡面积和前春(4月)北太平洋(20~60 °N,120 °E~120 °W)海表温度(SST)的变化特征,揭示了二者的时空联系。结果表明:近50 a来,(1)冬季北半球500 hPa和100 hPa极涡面积整体经历了先扩张后收缩的变化。春季北太平洋SST经历了先降低后升高的变化。其突变时间与500 hPa极涡面积的突变时间相近,均出现在1987年,且与后冬500 hPa大西洋欧洲大陆区(Ⅳ区)极涡面积相关更好。(2)春季北太平洋SST的EOF第一模态空间型表现为PDO,第二模态表现为三极子型,突变分别出现在1980s初期和中期。(3)北太平洋SST与500 hPa Ⅳ区极涡面积相关的空间分布表现为:当前期春季北太平洋中部海温异常偏高(低),南部和北部海温异常偏低(高),使得下一个冬季500 hPa Ⅳ区极涡面积的扩大(缩小),这种空间遥相关型对应着海温的第二模态。北太平洋海温异常以第一模态空间型居多,但是对后冬北半球极涡面积影响大的却是第二模态。(4)当前春北太平洋SST呈第二模态时,对应次年冬季中高纬度对流层温度"上冷下暖",极地东风和绕极西风环流加强,极涡面积偏大。     

Characteristics of the temporal-spatial variation in atmospheric ozonosphere over the northern hemisphere during the period of 1963-1985

The total ozone data of 113 ozone observational stations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) spanning a period of 1963-1985 have been analysed in this paper. Some interesting results have been obtained, such as the temporal and spatial distribution, long-term trends, the harmonic analysis results, the relationship between the total ozone and solar activity, etc. Furthermore, by using the denned index G, the long-term changes of ozone meridional distribution patterns for the region of Europe-Asia (EA) have been approached particularly.     

Northward flux of zonal velocity due to quasi-stationary and nonstationary waves in the atmosphere during northern hemisphere winter

The zonal wind velocity flux induced by wave motions in the central month of winter (January) is studied from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). It is shown that the model describes stationary wave processes with a sufficient accuracy and captures their synoptic period.     

Intercomparison of instruments for measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics

In this paper, intercomparison testings of the Wind Master sonic anemometer manufactured by Gill Instruments Ltd. (U.K.) and two sonic anemometers manufactured by the Taifun Scientific Industrial Association (Obninsk, Russia), ATsAT-3M are described. Data of measurements of the standard deviations and spectrum characteristics of the vertical and horizontal wind speed components, heat and friction fluxes are presented. Dispersion of the measurements and degree of their coherence are characterized by the regression equation coefficients (a and b) and the cross-correlation coefficients. The coherence plot shows compliance of the measurements data throughout the entire frequency range.     

冬季南京北郊大气气溶胶中水溶性阴离子特征

2009年冬季在南京北郊进行24 h采样,运用离子色谱法研究大气PM₁₀中水溶性阴离子的分布特征。结果表明:PM₁₀中阴离子的平均总质量浓度在白天和夜间分别为658.21、622.84 μg/m³;PM_2.1则分别为337.86、319.97 μg/m³,阴离子主要存在于细粒子中;主要水溶性阴离子均为SO₄^2-,且海盐对南京北郊大气PM₁₀和PM_2.1中的SO₄^2-质量浓度影响很小。SO₄^2-、Cl^-和F^-粒径谱分布相似,均呈双模态;NO₃^-和NO₂^-主要呈现单模态。SO₄^2-与NO₃^-、F^-与NO₃^-、SO₄^2-与Cl^-的相关系数均大于0.8,相关显著,说明其存在一定的同源性。NO₃^-/SO₄^2-的平均值在白天、夜间分别为0.058 2、0.048 4,说明南京北郊大气污染以固定源为主。分析NO₃^-、SO₄^2-前体物的转化率知道,采样期间SOR和NOR的平均值均大于10%,即SO₄^2-部分来源于SO₂的二次转化,而不是单一来源于一次污染物。     

On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models

In order to investigate whether climate models of different complexity have the potential to simulate natural atmospheric circulation regimes, 1000-year-long integrations with constant external forcing have been analysed. Significant non-Gaussian uni-, bi-, and trimodal probability density functions have been found in 100-year segments.     

Simulated changes in the atmospheric water balance over South Asia in the eight IPCC AR4 coupled climate models

This paper evaluates the performance of eight state-of-art IPCC-AR4 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in their representation of regional characteristics of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. The results presented here are the regional climate change scenarios of atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation (P, C and E) up to the end of the twenty-second century based on IPCC AR4 modelling experiments conducted for (A1B) future greenhouse gas emission scenario. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed atmospheric water balance and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance changes under A1B scenario are discussed in detail. Spatial patterns of rainfall change projections indicate maximum increase over northwest India in most of the models, but changes in the atmospheric water balance are generally widespread over South Asia. While the scenarios presented in this study are indicative of the expected range of rainfall and water balance changes, it must be noted that the quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them.     

Intercomparison of three urban climate models

An intercomparison of the surface energy budgets from three urban climate models was made to assess the comparability of results, and to evaluate the surface energy fluxes from each model. The three models selected spanned the continuum of approaches currently employed in the treatment of the effects of urban geometry. The first model was an urban canopy-layer model which explicitly examined urban canyon geometry. The second model treated the city as a warm, rough, moist plate but included greatly simplified parameterizations of urban geometry. Neither model included a dynamic link to the urban boundary-layer. The third model was a one-dimensional urban boundary-layer model which utilized a simple warm, rough, moist plate approach but included a dynamic coupling of the urban surface layer to the urban boundary-layer.Results showed considerable disagreement between the three models in regards to the individual energy fluxes. Average rankings of the energy fluxes in terms of comparability from high-to-low similarity were: (1) solar radiation, (2) sensible heat flux, (3) conduction, (4) latent heat flux, (5) longwave re-radiation, and (6) longwave radiation input. In general, the urban canopy-layer model provided more realistic results, although each model demonstrated strong and weak points. Results indicate that current urban boundary-layer models may produce surface energy budgets with lower sensible heat fluxes and substantially higher latent heat fluxes than is supported by field evidence from the literature.