Global climate change and human health

Predicted changes in temperature during the next century and the possibility of substantial depletion of stratospheric ozone would represent an unprecedently rapid change in the global environment with enormous effects including important impacts on human health. These are likely to be most obvious in the Third World where some areas can expect an intensification of existing major health hazards: an increased frequency of floods and storms; changes to the availability of food and good quality domestic water supplies and climate-related changes in the ecology of insect vectors for diseases such as malaria. In developed countries significant impacts can also be anticipated. More frequent episodes of hot weather could be associated with more food poisoning and with increases in deaths from circulatory diseases. These might be offset by lower mortality rates in warmer winters. Exposure to photochemical atmospheric pollution is likely to increase. Stratospheric ozone depletion together with more exposure to sun in warmer weather could accelerate the existing rise in the incidence of skin cancer and increase the risk of cataracts.     

Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened.     

Observed surface ozone trend in the year 2012 over Nairobi,Kenya

Clean air is a basic requirement for human health and wellbeing. The Kenya Meteorological Department has established air pollution monitoring activities in various sites in Nairobi, at Dagoretti Corner meteorological station and at Mount Kenya. Different pollutants are measured including ozone. The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has influenced the weather and climate. This study examined the variations of surface ozone over Dagoretti Corner, Nairobi for a 12-month period ending July 2013, exactly one year after the start of data acquisition. The trend was studied using time series analysis of ozone concentration on both an hourly and monthly basis. The ozone data was then combined with meteorological data and temperature to find correlations between the two. Overall, the air quality of Nairobi, represented by Dagoretti Corner meteorological station is good as compared to the World Meteorological Organization ozone standards. The highest concentration of ozone is observed in the afternoon and the minimum at dawn on a daily basis. On seasonal scale, the highest levels are recorded in the cold months. This information helps to reduce exposure to the gas and thus to reduce its impacts on living things. The study recommends the reduction of exposure to the gas during the times when it has been observed to be highest in order to minimize its impacts.     

Assessing the impacts of solar ultraviolet radiation on the early life stages of crustacean zooplankton and ichthyoplankton in Marine coastal systems

Over the past 10–15 years, solar ultraviolet B (UV-B, 290–320 nm) levels have increased significantly at mid-latitude areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These increases in UV-B are linked to reductions of stratospheric ozone. Although the variables that affect UV-B penetration into water columns are still under active investigation, there are typically strong correlations between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophylla (chla), and UV attenuation. This is particularly significant in the context of possible UV-B impacts on marine coastal systems, since DOC and chla are usually much more highly concentrated in these waters than in the open ocean. Observations indicate that the early life stages of crustacean zooplankton and ichthyoplankton present in the first meter of coastal water columns (like only a small percentage of the total population) are susceptible to UV-B radiation. Variability in cloud cover, water transparency (and the variables that affect it), and vertical distribution and displacement of organisms within the mixed layer have a greater effect on the flux of UV-B radiation to which plankton are exposed than will ozone layer depletion. Although exposure to UV-B can negatively affect planktonic organisms, such directs effects are likely minimal in coastal zones, and within the context of all the other environmental factors that produce the very high levels of mortality typically observed in their early life stages. Indirect effects (e.g., UV-B-induced reduction in the nutritional quality of the food base) have not as yet been adequately evaluated.     

Comparative study for environmental performances of traditional manufacturing and directed energy deposition processes

Additive manufacturing is considered more sustainable than traditional manufacturing due to its efficient energy and materials usage. However, previous literature indicates that this suggestion is applicable only for the polymer materials, and the environmental issues of additive manufacturing with metallic materials are still not clear. With the method of life cycle assessment, this paper analyzes and compares the energy consumptions and environmental impacts of direct energy deposition and traditional machining processes for a typical metal part. Further, the article attempts to identify the significant issues in the two manufacturing options that contribute most to the environmental impacts. Six environmental impacts were assessed in this study: global warming potential (GWP); acidification potential (AP); eutrophication potential; ozone depletion potential (ODP); photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP); and abiotic depletion potential (ADP). The results show that the gear laser fabrication process consumes more energy and releases more negative emissions compared with traditional gear manufacturing processes. The results of GWP, AP, ODP, ADP and POCP of the traditional gear manufacturing are only 30.33, 43.42, 17, 65.05 and 54.68% of the gear laser fabrication.     

中国北方早期农业生产模式下的人群营养与健康——以陕西靖边五庄果墚遗址的生物考古为例

本文从五庄果墚遗址入手,试图探索中国北方特有的粟作农业对人群健康状况的影响.五庄果墚遗址位于陕西省榆林市靖边县,是新石器时代仰韶文化晚期到龙山文化早期的一处重要遗存.该遗址共出人骨遗存29具(成年人10具,未成年人19具).宏观和微观的病理观察结果显示,该人群龋齿、贫血、骨膜炎、以及牙釉质发育不全的发病率普遍偏高,其中患龋率55.6%,贫血发病率42.9%,骨膜炎发病率33.3%,牙釉质发育不全发病率66.7%.龋齿及贫血多发反映了粟作农业的饮食特征,即食物中含糖量增高,铁元素减少,不利于营养吸收.骨膜炎的流行或与定居农业的发展、人口密度的增加以及早期粟作农业高强度的劳作方式有关.值得注意的是,女性下肢出现了可能由维生素D缺乏导致的异常翻转现象,而男性则不见,这有可能与农业社会的性别分工相关.牙釉质发育不全出现的时间集中于4~7岁,具有一定的周期性.此外,有3例婴幼儿出现颅内损伤,其中两例疑似罹患脑膜炎.结合牙釉质发育不全的周期性,婴幼儿有可能出现季节性营养不良状况,这可能与当地气候环境造成的一年一熟的耕作制度有关.五庄果墚人群中几类疾病的高发均与农业的起源和发展相关,揭示了五庄果墚先民健康状况背后潜在的农业因素,为探讨中国北方早期农业与人群健康间的互动关系提供了生物考古学的例证.     

Is shrinking groundwater resources leading to socioeconomic and environmental degradation in Central Ganga Plain,India?

In India, agriculture is a source of livelihood for over 64 % of the country's population. Indo-Gangetic Plains of North India support good cultivation and provides livelihood to several hundred million people. The climatic change studies have documented changes in precipitation pattern which can alter the flow pattern discharge to the reservoirs and availability of water for agriculture. The reduction in groundwater recharge through reduced rainfall and irregularity in surface water availability has increased dependence on groundwater resources causing its overexploitation. Consequently, pumping from deeper groundwater conditions need more energy and pump efficiency for abstraction which ultimately requires huge capital investment. Moreover, volatile fuel prices make the agricultural society vulnerable to economic losses. The repercussions of water level decline are likely to disseminate an additional economic burden to the groundwater user community. To cope with higher energy demands, increase in fuel consumption has led to environmental degradation through higher carbon emission. Thus, the groundwater depletion is likely to have far-reaching socioeconomic and environmental impacts which are not confined to the Central Gangetic Plain. In the present study, attempts have been made to analyze the effect of groundwater depletion as a commodity in the social framework of the region.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes,Not Global Warming

Loss values from extremes in the U.S. and elsewhere have been more qualitativethan quantitative, but recent pressures for better information have led to newassessments and better estimates of financial losses from extremes. These pressureshave included concerns over potential impacts of more extremes due to global warmingfostered by ever increasing costs to the insurance industry and government from weather extremes; plus a series of massive losses during the past 15 years (drought of 1988–1989,Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Midwestern 1993 floods). These recent assessmentsattempted to adjust data for societal changes over time and thus derived new and betterestimates of losses for seven major extremes than existed previously. Three extremeshave annual average losses in excess of a billion dollars (1998 dollars) includinghurricanes ($4.2 billion), floods ($3.2 billion), and severe local storms ($1.6 billion).One extreme and its adjusted losses exhibit upward trends (floods), but all others showno increases with time or temporal decreases (hail, hurricanes, tornadoes, and severethunderstorms). Annual national losses during 1950–1997 from the three major extremes, plus four others (hail, tornadoes, winter storms, and wind storms), collectively reveal no upward or downward trend over time, with an average annual loss of $10.3 billion. The quality loss values do not indicate an increase as has been postulated for global warming. The good news is that better estimates of impacts now exist, but the bad news is that they are still estimates and do not include sizable unmeasured losses. If accurate data on the economic impacts from weather extremes are seen as important for scientific research and policy-making for global warming, the U.S. needs a continuing program to adequately measure losses from weather extremes.     

NASA's contribution to ozone research and monitoring

NASA has a long and significant history in observations and data analysis research for understanding the short- and long-term changes in ozone in the atmosphere. For nearly 40 years, NASA has overseen satellite observations of stratospheric ozone. These observations have been augmented by ground-based remote sensing, balloon borne, and aircraft observations of ozone and ozone-related species and by continuous observations of ozone depleting substances. Together, they form the evidential basis for understanding ozone changes over these past four decades. Also, NASA has continuously funded laboratory, modeling and data analysis activities to better understand the observations obtained by NASA and other programs. NASA has plans to continue these activities in the future, at a level consistent with available funding, other Earth Science observational priorities, and more importantly, with a goal of ensuring that data exist to understand changes in ozone in the future as the abundances of ozone depleting substances decrease and those of greenhouse gases increase.     

Dynamics of forest fires and climate in Ilmen nature reserve, 1948–2013

This paper considers the impact of climatic factors on the forest fire rate in Ilmen State Reserve based on 66 years of direct observation data for 1948–2013. This period was marked by a gradual annual increase in the number of recorded fires in the reserve. The higher fire rate is generally related to lengthening of the fire season and more frequent fires in the spring and summer–early autumn periods. We did not obtain sufficient evidence to verify a relation of the higher fire rate to climate changes. The average monthly and seasonal weather conditions can be involved to explain only some causes of the interannual fire rate variability. The observed changes in some climatic characteristics could have contributed to an increase in the fire rate, while others could have reduced it.     

Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change?

After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.     

Increase in Weather Patterns Generating Extreme Desiccation Events: Implications for Mediterranean Rocky Shore Ecosystems

Anthropogenic global climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of transient extreme weather events that can be catastrophic to ecological communities. Here, we characterize an extremely stressful, transient phenomenon on southeastern Mediterranean (Israel) rocky shores: prolonged desiccation events (PDE). We also examined (during 2012–2014) its potential ecological impacts on the unique intertidal Mediterranean Sea ecosystem—vermetid reefs. In this region, where the tide is minimal but the rocky intertidal is extensive, high pressure and dry easterly winds generated by specific synoptic systems can suppress tidal flooding and create stressful desiccation conditions in the lower intertidal zones for many consecutive days (several days to weeks). Very long and strong PDEs resulted in extensive macroalgal bleaching and their eventual removal from the rocks and caused mortality of stranded topshell snails and partial collapse of the mid-shore limpet population. Dominant intertidal fleshy algae were shown to be more sensitive than calcareous algae to desiccation stress, but both die after 24 h of exposure in lab conditions. Re-analysis of climatic data for the period 1960–2010 showed a considerable increase in the frequency of PDE-generating synoptic systems, mainly during winter. This means that desiccation stress has already increased on southeastern Mediterranean vermetid reef ecological communities, and if this trend continues, we can expect further increases in aerial exposure and desiccation stress that could have long-term impacts on this fragile ecosystem. These results demonstrate the importance of change in patterns of synoptic systems and wind regimes to the integrity of coastal ecological communities.     

Review of the Atmospheric Response to the Ocean Mesoscale Eddies

As one of the most important mesoscale ocean features, the mesoscale eddies are omnipresent and have significant impact on the overlying atmosphere. Based on the comprehensive review of the influence of mesoscale eddies on the atmospheric boundary layer and the local circulation, the corresponding physical mechanisms and their impacts on weather systems were presented systematically. ①Eddy-induced SST anomalies may modify the surface wind speed, horizontal divergence, cloud and precipitation through turbulence heat flux anomalies. Meanwhile, additional secondary circulations arise over the eddies. What is more, there are obvious regional and seasonal differences for atmospheric responses. ② Studies in the South China Sea, the Kuroshio Extension region and the Southern Ocean indicate that atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies can be explained by the changes of sea level pressure or the vertical momentum transport. These two mechanisms can be distinguished by the phase relationship between the atmospheric anomaly center and the eddy core. Diagnosis on the inner dynamical processes may draw better conclusions. ③The energy conversions are affected by mesoscale eddies, which may affect storm tracks and jet streams, and finally result in distant influences on weather patterns. Moreover, sea temperature anomalies from sea surface to the thermocline associated with mesoscale eddies have significant impacts on the intensification and the maintenance of tropical cyclones.     

The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion

Ozone depletion at mid-latitudes is caused by reactivehalogens from man-made halocarbons. The stratosphericsulphate aerosol which follows large volcaniceruptions enhances (multiplies) this ozone depletion(it has no effect on ozone without halocarbons). Mid-latitude depletion almost doubled for the twoyears after Mt. Pinatubo. Although the MontrealProtocol is expected to reduce atmospheric amounts ofhalocarbons in the 21st century, stratospheric ozonewill be at risk of depletion enhancement by largeeruptions for the next 50 years. Mechanisms ofvolcanoes suggest that large eruptions are random andthat their global rate is constant for severalcenturies. Measurements of large eruptions during thelast 1000 years in ice cores have a remarkable fit toa Poisson distribution, reinforcing the conclusionthat the global incidence is random and at a constantrate for this period. From this rate, the probabilityof one or more eruptions with at least the ozone-lossenhancement of Pinatubo is 58 % in 50 years. Thisprobability is large enough to be of serious concernfor future mid-latitude ozone loss.     

环境演变对中华文明影响研究的进展与展望

近年来自然环境演变研究和中华文明演变研究的大量科学积累显示,中国的地理环境及其演变与中华文明的产生和发展之间存在着多样而复杂的相互影响关系。从已有的研究成果可以概括出以下认识：(1) 中华文明具有“多元一体结构”,其连续性得益于与巨大的生存空间相联系的多样的环境类型与环境演变的区域差异。(2) 尽管并非所有的暖期中华文明都繁盛,但中华文明繁盛的时期往往是各种时间尺度上的暖期。(3) 环境极端恶化事件对中华文明产生严重冲击,同时也促使文明发生重大变革,中华民族在对不利环境影响的适应过程中不断开拓创造、不断积累经验,从而促进社会的更大进步。进一步开展有关环境演变对中华文明影响的过程与机制研究,应以重大环境演变事件的识别为基础,以环境变化引起的资源变化为切入点,通过文明发展对环境演变影响的适应研究来深化对文明内涵的理解。     

Risk perception,crop protection and plant disease in the UK wheat sector

While plant diseases have been the subject of scientific research, little is known about the perceptions of key actors towards plant disease risk within specific food sectors. Drawing on concepts of risk and uncertainty, and using in-depth interviews, this paper examines the ways in which endemic plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ businesses, as well as by farmers and agronomists. A majority of interviewees feel that plant disease is a controllable risk and one that rests mainly at the point of production (i.e. with farmers) within the wheat sector. This assumed ‘control’ is based mainly around the availability of plant protection products (e.g. fungicides) which reduce the sense of risk attributable to outbreaks of plant disease. As a consequence, there can be a tendency to grow higher-yielding wheat varieties that are less disease-resistant. The potential banning of certain fungicides under EU legislation and climate change are perceived future threats that could increase uncertainty and change the balance between ‘control’ and ‘resistance’, the latter through the use of more disease-resistant wheat varieties. Further research is needed on the perceived impacts of plant diseases and on how different wheat sector actors will contribute to the future control of plant diseases and the development of more integrated systems of plant disease management.     

Utilizing synoptic climatological methods to assess the impacts of climate change on future tornado-favorable environments

Previous research into the impacts of climate change on severe mid-latitude weather has been limited by the spatial resolution of many important variables in global climate model output. By utilizing synoptic climatological methods, however, this research takes an entirely different approach. Using a six-step process that includes principal components analysis, cluster analysis, and discriminant function analysis, this study first creates a continental-scale map pattern classification at three levels of the atmosphere, from geopotential height and temperature fields. These patterns are then associated to historic F2 and stronger United States?? tornado days using binary logistic regression. Using output data from two GCMs, spanning five different model emissions scenarios, this synoptic climatology of tornadoes is then utilized in order to project the changes in the frequency and seasonality of tornadic environments due to a changing climate. Results indicate that F2 and stronger US tornado days will increase anywhere from 3.8 to 12.7% by the 2090s. The majority of this increase is likely to be manifested in the earlier part of the tornado season. In addition to the shift in seasonality, a broadening of the peak tornado season is also noticed under some scenarios. Geographically, portions of the Northern and Central Plains, the High Plains, the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic States, and the Southeast are projected to experience an increase in tornado days under some future scenarios. The Upper Great Lakes states and the Southern Plains are projected to experience a decrease in tornado days.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).