利用GM（1,1）预测模型预测房屋面积

房屋面积数据是地震灾害损失评估的重要参数，也是地震应急数据库基础数据。数据库要求每年及时更新，但数据更新周期较长，达不到更新要求。本研究主要从乌鲁木齐统计年鉴中提取2001—2018年房屋基础数据，建立乌鲁木齐住宅建筑总面积及人均住宅面积数据增长模型，利用GM（1,1）预测模型和多元线性回归模型预测未来2年乌鲁木齐住宅建筑总面积和人均住宅面积。本研究得到的住宅建筑总面积及人均住宅面积数据可作为应急数据库中相关基础数据更新的补充手段，也可作为未来几年震害预测的参考基础数据。     

非等步长GM(1,1)模型在建筑物变形监测中的应用研究

将灰色系统理论应用于建筑物变形监测数据分析,针对观测周期的不确定性因素,提出使用非等步长GM(1,1)模型进行监测,并用最小二乘法求解模型参数,给出模型精度的检验方法,并以实际的建筑物的沉降观测数据为例说明应用此方法的全部过程,将分析和预测结果与传统GM模型进行比对,获得了更好的拟合数据和预测数据,且精度更高。     

On the relationship between small atmospheric ions concentration and (1) smoke, (2) sulfur dioxide and (3) wind speed

In the present study the influence of smoke and sulfur dioxide concentrations and of wind velocity on the concentration of small positive and negative ions above Athens area (=37°58.3N, =23°43E,h=107 m) is examined.Between the above mentioned elements simple linear correlation and multiple linear correlation is attempted. This correlation is based on mean daily values of the elements, for the two-year period 1971–1972, for each month separately.From the above examination it has been ascertained that small ions concentration increases as smoke and/or sulfur dioxide concentration decreases. Also, small ions concentration increases as wind velocity increases.In addition, it was ascertained that sulfur dioxide contributes the least to the determination of the variance of small ions concentration, whilst the greatest contribution is made by smoke for the positive small ions or by wind velocity for the negative ones.     

Contents of Volume 1 (2003)

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 1 (2003)     

MOVING SOURCE PROFILING (MSP)1

Moving source profiling is a modification of walk-away vertical seismic profiling in which the source is moved along a line across a well while the signal is recorded in the well at a certain depth. The method was designed to better predict the target horizon below the drill bit and away from the well location. The method has several advantages in areas of complicated overburden. In overthrust regions, the receiver is placed below much of the complicated structure to minimize distortion of the reflected signal. The final seismic image is a depth presentation of the subsurface structure and stratigraphy based on wavefront calculations. This depth estimation is obtained without extensive processing of the recorded data. The final result is available within a few days and can help interpreters to decide if and where to sidetrack the well. The method is demonstrated using an example from the overthrust zone of the Lower Saxonian Basin and the Pompeckj's well in Northern Germany.