Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

The ratio between corner frequencies of source spectra of <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>- and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-waves—a new discriminant between earthquakes and quarry blasts

This study analyzes and compares the P- and S-wave displacement spectra from local earthquakes and explosions of similar magnitudes. We propose a new approach to discrimination between low-magnitude shallow earthquakes and explosions by using ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequencies as a criterion. We have explored 2430 digital records of the Israeli Seismic Network (ISN) from 456 local events (226 earthquakes, 230 quarry blasts, and a few underwater explosions) of magnitudes Md?=?1.4–3.4, which occurred at distances up to 250 km during 2001–2013 years. P-wave and S-wave displacement spectra were computed for all events following Brune’s source model of earthquakes (1970, 1971) and applying the distance correction coefficients (Shapira and Hofstetter, Teconophysics 217:217–226, 1993; Ataeva G, Shapira A, Hofstetter A, J Seismol 19:389-401, 2015), The corner frequencies and moment magnitudes were determined using multiple stations for each event, and then the comparative analysis was performed.The analysis showed that both P-wave and especially S-wave displacement spectra of quarry blasts demonstrate the corner frequencies lower than those obtained from earthquakes of similar magnitudes. A clear separation between earthquake and explosion populations was obtained for ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequency f ₀(P)/f ₀(S). The ratios were computed for each event with corner frequencies f ₀ of P- and S-wave, which were obtained from the measured f ₀ ^I at individual stations, then corrected for distance and finally averaged. We obtained empirically the average estimation of f ₀(P)/f ₀(S)?=?1.23 for all used earthquakes, and 1.86 for all explosions. We found that the difference in the ratios can be an effective discrimination parameter which does not depend on estimated moment magnitude M _w .The new multi-station Corner Frequency Discriminant (CFD) for earthquakes and explosions in Israel was developed based on ratios P- to S-wave corner frequencies f ₀(P)/f ₀(S), with the empirical threshold value of the ratio for Israel as 1.48.     

Detailed Study of Time Variations in the Gutenberg–Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value Based on Highly Accurate Seismic Observations at the Garm Prognostic Site,Tajikistan

The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log₁₀E^2/3, and log₁₀N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log₁₀N_i and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log₁₀N_i time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mc_i) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔM_i) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log₁₀N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.     

Experimental study on the shear behavior of the interface between cushion materials and the concrete raft

Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.     

Geomagnetic disturbances and earthquakes in the Vrancea zone

Based on the example of the Vrancea zone of concentrated seismicity, it is shown how the stress-strain state of the medium responds to a disturbance of the geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are examined in relation to earthquakes in the Vrancea zone in the period 1988–1996. It is established that the seismic energy release in the Vrancea zone is associated with differences (“gradients”) in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Such a gradient preceding earthquakes is shown to be the midnight polar substorm and the degree of its mid-latitude effect. The time interval from the maximum of the substorm development to a shock (τ, h) is directly related to the focal depth. The seismic characteristics K _en and h (km) are demonstrated to be related to morphological features of the substorm development, namely, its duration T (min), intensity, and background. Differences in the duration of polar substorms before crustal (shallow) and deep earthquakes are revealed. Morphological features of the spectrum of geomagnetic variations preceding the seismic energy release are established.     

Investigation on regional attenuation of Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes

This paper aims at investigating possible regional attenuation patterns in the case of Vrancea(Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes.Almost 500 pairs of horizontal components recorded during 13 intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are employed in order to evaluate the regional attenuation patterns.The recordings are grouped according to the azimuth with regard to the Vrancea seismic source and subsequently,Q models are computed for each azimuthal zone assuming similar geometrical spreading.Moreover,the local soil amplification which was disregarded in a previous analysis performed for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes is now clearly evaluated.The results show minor differences between the four regions situated in front of the Carpathian Mountains and considerable differences in attenuation of seismic waves between the forearc and backarc regions(with regard to the Carpathian Mountains).Consequently,an average Q model of the type Q(f) = 115×f~(1.25) is obtained for the four forearc regions,while a separate Q model of the type Q(f) = 70×f~(0.90) is computed for the backarc region.These results highlight the need to evaluate the seismic hazard of Romania by using ground motion models which take into account the different attenuation between the forearc/backarc regions.     

Shear wave velocity-based evaluation and design of stone column improved ground for liquefaction mitigation

The evaluation and design of stone column improvement ground for liquefaction mitigation is a challenging issue for the state of practice. In this paper, a shear wave velocity-based approach is proposed based on the well-defined correlations of liquefaction resistance (CRR)-shear wave velocity (V _s)-void ratio (e) of sandy soils, and the values of parameters in this approach are recommended for preliminary design purpose when site specific values are not available. The detailed procedures of pre- and post-improvement liquefaction evaluations and stone column design are given. According to this approach, the required level of ground improvement will be met once the target V _s of soil is raised high enough (i.e., no less than the critical velocity) to resist the given earthquake loading according to the CRR-V _s relationship, and then this requirement is transferred to the control of target void ratio (i.e., the critical e) according to the V _s-e relationship. As this approach relies on the densification of the surrounding soil instead of the whole improved ground and is conservative by nature, specific considerations of the densification mechanism and effect are given, and the effects of drainage and reinforcement of stone columns are also discussed. A case study of a thermal power plant in Indonesia is introduced, where the effectiveness of stone column improved ground was evaluated by the proposed V _s-based method and compared with the SPT-based evaluation. This improved ground performed well and experienced no liquefaction during subsequent strong earthquakes.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

G: Fracture energy,friction and dissipation in earthquakes

Recent estimates of fracture energy G ^′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ^′ ∝ u ^a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G _f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ^′ and G _f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s²). The resulting fracture energy G _f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G _f and G ^′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G _f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ^′ appears to increase further and surpasses G _f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Possible Short-Term Precursors of Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Japan based on Data from the Ground Stations of Vertical Ionospheric Sounding

We have studied changes in the ionosphere prior to strong crustal earthquakes with magnitudes of М ≥ 6.5 based on the data from the ground-based stations of vertical ionospheric sounding Kokobunji, Akita, and Wakkanai for the period 1968–2004. The data are analyzed based on hourly measurements of the virtual height and frequency parameters of the sporadic E layer and critical frequency of the regular F2 layer over the course of three days prior to the earthquakes. In the studied intervals of time before all earthquakes, anomalous changes were discovered both in the frequency parameters of the Es and F2 ionospheric layers and in the virtual height of the sporadic E layer; the changes were observed on the same day at stations spaced apart by several hundred kilometers. A high degree of correlation is found between the lead-time of these ionospheric anomalies preceding the seismic impact and the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. It is concluded that such ionospheric disturbances can be short-term ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Necessity and adequacy of near-source factors for not-so-tall fixed-base buildings

Nonlinear response history analyses and use of strong ground motion data including near-field effects has become a common practice in both performance based design of tall buildings and design of base-isolated buildings. On the other hand, ordinary buildings are commonly analysed via response spectrum analysis following the rules of conventional seismic codes, most of which do not take near-field effects into account. This study evaluates the necessity and the adequacy of near-source factors for ordinary fixed-base buildings that are not specifically classified as tall, by comparing dynamic responses of 3, 8, and 15-story benchmark buildings obtained via(1) linear time history analyses using 220 record components from 13 historical earthquakes and 45 synthetic earthquake records of different magnitudes and fault distances and(2) response spectrum analyses in accordance with the Turkish Earthquake Code 2007-representing seismic codes not taking near-field effects into account- and the Uniform Building Code 1997 which takes near-field effects into account via near-source factors that amplify design response spectrum. It is shown that near-source factors are crucial for the safe design of not-so-tall ordinary fixed-base buildings but those defined in UBC97 may still not be adequate for those located in the vicinity of the fault.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

Scaling relations of moment magnitude,local magnitude,and duration magnitude for earthquakes originated in northeast India

In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M _W), local magnitude (M _L), and the duration magnitude (M _D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M _W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M _W-M _L and M _W-M _D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M _W values can be considered consistent with M _L and M _D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.     

A numerical study on the seismic bearing capacity of shallow foundations

Based on a pseudo-static approach, finite difference (FDM) numerical analyses have been performed aimed at evaluating the seismic effects on the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow strip foundations. In the specialised literature, such seismic effects are usually divided in two components, namely, a structure inertia and a soil inertia, which can be either considered together, or separately addressed and then superposed. Both of these inertia effects are investigated in this work. The results of a comprehensive numerical study are presented in—and critically compared to—the wide framework of available analytical solutions proposed in the literature in the last 30 years. The good agreement found between the numerical and the analytical approaches is pointed out, thus providing further evidence of the reliability of some available and widespread solutions. The possibility of superposition of the two inertia effects is investigated. It is found that in some cases the soil inertia may play a significant role in the seismic capacity of the system, and that simple one-constant equations can be readily used in foundation design to estimate the reduction in bearing capacity (namely, factors e _i , e _k ) deriving from the two inertia effects.     

Features of Radiation and Propagation of Seismic Waves in the Northern Caucasus: Manifestations in Regional Coda

Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (M_W > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.