Characteristics of Enhanced and Low Amplitude Anisotropic Wave Trains and Interplanetary Transients

The occurrence of a large number of high and low amplitude anisotropic wave train events over the years 1981–1994 has been examined along with the different solar features. The results indicate that the time of maximum of diurnal variation significantly remains in the 18-h direction for majority of the high and low amplitude wave trains. The amplitude of diurnal anisotropy remains significantly high and phase shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the quite day annual average values for majority of the HAEs. The diurnal amplitude remains significantly low and phase shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the quiet day annual average values for majority of the LAEs. The occurrence of these enhanced/low amplitude events is found to be dominant during the positive polarity of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy of these events is found to increase on the days of magnetic cloud as compared to the days prior to the event and it found to decrease during the later period of the event as the cloud passes the Earth. The high-speed solar wind streams do not play any significant role in causing these types of events. The interplanetary disturbances (magnetic clouds) are also effective in producing cosmic ray decreases.     

Effect of Interplanetary Turbulences Causing High/low Amplitude Anisotropic Wave Trains in Cr Intensity

The high/low-amplitude anisotropic wave train events (HAE/LAE) in CR intensity have been investigated during the period 1981–1990, using the neutron monitoring data for different latitudes. In all, 21 HAE and 15 LAE cases have been studied. It has been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy remains in the same co-rotational direction for the majority of the HAE/LAE cases. However, it has also been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy changes to later hours in some of the HAE cases, whereas it changes to early hours in some of the LAE cases. Further, the amplitude of the semi-diurnal anisotropy for HAE/LAE cases remains statistically the same; however, the phase of the semi-diurnal anisotropy for HAE has been found to shift to later hours for all events. Furthermore, the HAE occur dominantly during the declining phase of solar activity, whereas LAE occur dominantly during the minimum solar activity period. The geomagnetic activity index-A_p has been observed to remain low during the period of each HAE/LAE. The possible phenomenon to cause the enhanced/low-amplitude daily variation has been proposed to appear on the back side of the Sun.     

Strange Quark Matter in Cosmic Ray Flux and Exotic Events

There have been several reports of exotic nuclear fragments, with highly unusual charge to mass ratio, in cosmic ray experiments. Although there exist experimental uncertainties which make them, at best, only candidate `exotic' events, it is important to understand what they could be, if they are eventually confirmed. Among other possible explanations, some authors have interpreted them to be lumps of strange quark matter (strangelets).A major problem with such an interpretation is that to reach the earth's surface, they must possess an unusually high penetrability through the terrestrial atmosphere. We show that a recently proposed mechanism for the propagation of strangelets through the earth's atmosphere, together with a proper account of charge capture and ionisation loss, would solve this problem. We also argue that this could lead to viable strategies for definitive detection of strange quark matter in cosmic ray flux using aground based large area array of passive detectors. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic Ray Effects on the ISOCAM Long Wave Detector

The ISOCAM detector is subjected to transient effects induced bycosmic rays, the so-called glitches. This paper is focused onthe ISOCAM long wave detector. The predicted glitch rates havebeen re-evaluated by taking into account secondary particlesproduction in the materials surrounding the LW detector. We showin this preliminary study that the difference between thepreviously predicted glitch rate and the observed rate may beexplained by secondary particles.     

Principal Component Analysis of Ground Level Enhancement of Cosmic Ray Events

We applied principal component analysis(PCA) to the study of five ground level enhancements(GLEs) of cosmic ray(CR) events. The nature of the multivariate data involved makes PCA a useful tool for this study. A subroutine program written and implemented in the R software environment generated interesting principal components.Analysis of the results shows that the method can distinguish between neutron monitors(NMs) that observed Forbush decreases from those that observed GLEs at the same time. T...     

Predictions of Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Deduced from that of Sunspot Number

A new method is proposed to predict cosmic ray intensity and solar modulation parameters. The method is coupled with the McNish and Lincoln method, which predicts first smoothed sunspot numbers. The error achieved is estimated and compared with the same chain of predictions using two other methods developed for US and Russian space applications. The three methods give satisfactory results when applied, for example, to prediction of the dose received on-board commercial aeroplane flights.     

Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations in Relation with Solar Flare Index and Sunspot Numbers

From the monthly data of cosmic ray intensity (CRI), sunspot numbers (SSN) and solar flare index (SFI), an attempt has been made to study the relationship between CRI and solar activity (SA) parameters SSN and SFI. The correlation between SA parameters and CRI for different neutron monitoring stations having low, middle and high cut-off rigidity has been investigated. The anti-correlation between SA and CRI is found to exist with some time lag. Based on the method of minimizing correlation coefficient and time-delayed component method, the observed time-lag between SA parameters (SSN and SFI) and CRI has been found to be large for odd solar cycles in comparison to even solar cycles. The results of time-lag analysis between CRI and SSN and between CRI-SFI have also been compared. The findings of correlative study between CRI and SSN are in agreement with earlier results, while the CRI-SFI relationship provides new insights to understand the solar modulation of cosmic rays.     

The Asymptotic Longitudinal Cosmic Ray Intensity Distribution as a Precursor of Forbush Decreases

Identifying the precursors (pre-increases or pre-decreases) of a geomagnetic storm or a Forbush decrease is of great importance since they can forecast and warn of oncoming space weather effects. A wide investigation using 93 events which occurred in the period from 1967 to 2006 with an anisotropy A _xy >1.2% has been conducted. Twenty-seven of the events revealed clear signs of precursors and were classified into three categories. Here we present one of the aforementioned groups, including five Forbush decreases (24 June 1980, 28 October 2000, 17 August 2001, 23 April 2002, and 10 May 2002). Apart from hourly cosmic ray intensity data, provided by the worldwide network of neutron monitor stations, data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field were used for the analysis of the examined cosmic ray intensity decreases. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the “ring of stations” method. Results reveal a long pre-decrease up to 24 hours before the shock arrival in a narrow longitudinal zone from 90° to 180°.     

The 27-Day Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations During Solar Minimum 23/24

We have studied the 27-day variations and their harmonics in Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components during the recent prolonged solar minimum 23/24. The time evolution of the quasi-periodicity in these parameters connected with the Sun’s rotation reveals that the synodic period of these variations is ≈?26?–?27 days and is stable. This means that the changes in the solar wind speed and the IMF are related to the Sun’s near-equatorial regions in considering the differential rotation of the Sun. However, the solar wind parameters observed near the Earth’s orbit provide only the conditions in the limited local vicinity of the equatorial region in the heliosphere (within ±?7^° in latitude). We also demonstrate that the observed period of the GCR intensity connected with the Sun’s rotation increased up to ≈?33?–?36 days in 2009. This means that the process that drives the 27-day GCR intensity variations takes place not only in the limited local surroundings of the equatorial region but in the global 3-D space of the heliosphere, covering also higher latitude regions. A relatively long period (≈?34 days) found for 2009 in the GCR intensity gives possible evidence of the onset of cycle 24 due to active regions at higher latitudes and rotating slowly because of the Sun’s differential rotation. We also discuss the effect of differential rotation on the theoretical model of the 27-day GCR intensity variations.     

Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity

We study quasi-periodical changes in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, and the parameters of solar wind and solar activity. We have recently found quasi-periodicity of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3?–?4 CRP) in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (Gil and Alania in J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 73, 294, 2011). A similar recurrence is recognized in parameters of solar activity (sunspot number, solar radio flux) and solar wind (components of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity). We believe that the 3?–?4 CRP periodicity, among other periodicities, observed in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is caused by a specific cycling structure of the Sun’s magnetic field, which may originate from the turbulent nature of the solar dynamo.     

Transient Modulation of Cosmic Ray Intensity: Role of Magnetic Clouds and Turbulent Interaction Regions

Two distinct regions of shock-associated magnetic clouds, (i) magnetically turbulent regions formed due to interaction between magnetic cloud and ambient magnetic field i.e. turbulent interaction region (TIR), and magnetically quiet region called magnetic cloud have been considered separately and correlation of interplanetary plasma and field parameters, magnetic field strength (B) and solar wind speed (V), with cosmic ray intensity (I) have been studied during the passage of these two regions. A good correlation between B and I and between V and I has been obtained during the passage of sheath when the magnetic field is high and turbulent, while these correlation have been found to be poor during the passage of magnetic clouds when the field is strong and smooth. Further, there is a positive correlation between enhancement in field strength and its variance in the sheath region. These results strongly support the hypothesis that most Forbush decreases are due to scattering of particles by region of enhanced magnetic turbulence. These results also suggest that it will provide a better insight if not the magnetic field enhancement alone but in addition, the nature of magnetic field enhancement is also considered while correlating the field enhancements with depressions in cosmic rays. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic Ray Production Rates in Supernova Remnants

Supernova Remnants (SNRs) are the most likely sources of the galactic cosmic rays up to energies of about 10¹⁵ eV/nuc. The large scale shock waves of SNRs are almost ideal sites to accelerate particles up to these highly non-thermal energies by a first order Fermi mechanism which operates through scattering of the particles at magnetic irregularities. In order to get an estimate on the total amount of the explosion energy E _SNconverted into high energy particles the evolution of a SNR has to be followed up to the final merging with the interstellar medium. This can only be done by numerical simulations since the non-linear modifications of the shock wave due to particle acceleration as well as radiative cooling processes at later SNR stages have to be considered in such investigations. Based on a large sample of numerical evolution calculations performed for different ambient densities n _ext, SN explosion energies, magnetic fields etc. we discuss the final ‘yields’ of cosmic rays at the final SNR stage where the Mach number of the shock waves drops below 2. At these times the cosmic rays start to diffuse out of the remnant. In the range of external densities of10^-2 ≤ n _ext/[cm^-3] ≤ 30 we find a the total acceleration efficiency of about 0.15 E _SN with an increase up to 0.24 E _SN at maximum for an external density of n _ext = 10 cm^-3. Since for the larger ambient densities radiative cooling can reduce significantly the total thermal energy content of the remnant dissipation of Alfvén waves can provide an important heating mechanism for the gas at these later stages. From the collisions of the cosmic rays with the thermal plasma neutral pions are generated which decay subsequently into observable γ-rays above 100 MeV. Hence, we calculate these γ-ray luminosities of SNRs and compare them with current upper limits of ground based γ-raytelescopes. The development of dense shells due to cooling of the thermal plasma increases the γ-ray luminosities and e.g. an external density of n _ext = 10 cm^-3 with E _SN = 10⁵¹ erg can lead to a γ-ray flux above 10^-6 ph cm^-2 s^-1 for a remnant located at a distance of 1 kpc. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years

Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being <?10^?5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈?172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈?112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤?five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.     

Cosmic Ray Fluxes in Present and Past Times

The data on primary cosmic ray fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are given for the period since 1937 till the present time. These data have been obtained from the regular cosmic ray flux measurements in the stratosphere and on the ground level. They have been used to find the relationship of cosmic ray fluxes with solar activity (sunspot number). On the basis of the deduced relationship the cosmic ray fluxes in the past have been recovered, as the sunspot number is known since 1500. The link between the smoothed data on Be-10 atom concentrations and cosmic ray fluxes is established which gives a possibility to calculate cosmic ray fluxes in the far past.     

Ineffectiveness of Narrow CMEs for Cosmic Ray Modulation

Monthly coronal mass ejection (CME) counts, – for all CMEs and CMEs with widths >?30^°, – and monthly averaged speeds for the events in these two groups were compared with both the monthly averaged cosmic ray intensity and the monthly sunspot number. The monthly P _i-index, which is a linear combination of monthly CME count rate and average speed, was also compared with the cosmic ray intensity and sunspot number. The main finding is that narrow CMEs, which were numerous during 2007?–?2009, are ineffective for modulation. A cross-correlation analysis, calculating both the Pearson (r) product–moment correlation coefficient and the Spearman (ρ) rank correlation coefficient, has been used. Between all CMEs and cosmic ray intensity we found correlation coefficients r=??0.49 and ρ=??0.46, while between CMEs with widths >?30^° and cosmic ray intensity we found r=??0.75 and ρ=??0.77, which implies a significant increase. Finally, the best expression for the P _i-index for the examined period was analyzed. The highly anticorrelated behavior among this CME index, the cosmic ray intensity (r=??0.84 and ρ=??0.83), and the sunspot number (r=+?0.82 and ρ=+?0.89) suggests that the first one is a very useful solar–heliospheric parameter for heliospheric and space weather models in general.     

Modulation Cycles of Galactic Cosmic Ray Diurnal Anisotropy Variation

The diurnal variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) count rates measured by a ground-based neutron monitor (NM) station represents an anisotropic flow of GCR at 1 AU. The variation of the local time of GCR maximum intensity (we call the phase) is thought in general to have a period of two sunspot cycles (22 years). However, other interpretations are also possible. In order to determine the cyclic behavior of GCR anisotropic variation more precisely, we have carried out a statistical study on the diurnal variation of the phase. We examined 54-year data of Huancayo (Haleakala), 40-year data from Rome, and 43-year data from Oulu NM stations using the ‘pile-up’ method and the F-test. We found that the phase variation has two components: of 22-year and 11-year cycles. All NM stations show mainly the 22-year phase variation controlled by the drift effect due to solar polar magnetic field reversal, regardless of their latitudinal location (cut-off rigidity). However, the lower the NM station latitude is (the higher the cut-off rigidity is), the higher is the contribution from the 11-year phase variation controlled by the diffusion effect due to the change in strength of the interplanetary magnetic fields associated with the sunspot cycle.     

The Role of Extragalactic Antimatter in Cosmic Ray Observations Near Earth

Quest for antimatter in cosmic rays has revealed no compelling evidence of primary, extragalactic antiparticles up to the present time. Recent positron and antiproton observations have been found to be consistent with a pure galactic origin up to energies of 50 GeV and 20 GeV respectively. In this paper it is discussed which role might be played by Ultra High Energy (UHE) extragalactic particles and antiparticles in cosmic-ray observations near Earth. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Time Evolution of low-Frequency Periodicities in Cosmic ray Intensity

The long-time series of daily means of cosmic-ray intensity observed by four neutron monitors at different cutoff rigidities (Calgary, Climax, Lomnický tít and Huancayo/Haleakala) were analyzed by means of the wavelet transform method in the period range 60 to 1000 days. The contributions of the time evolution of three quasi-periodic cosmic-ray signals (150 d, 1.3 yr and 1.7 yr) to the global one are obtained. While the 1.7-yr quasi-periodicity, the most remarkable one in the studied interval, strongly contributes to the cosmic ray intensity profile of solar cycle 21 (particularly in 1982), the 1.3-yr one, which is better correlated with the same periodicity of the interplanetary magnetic field strength, is present as a characteristic feature for the decreasing phases of the cycles 20 and 22. Transitions between these quasi-periodicities are seen in the wavelet power spectra plots. Obtained results support the claimed difference in the solar activity evolution during odd and even solar activity cycles.