Scenario prediction of changes in water balance components of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers in the context of possible climate change in the region of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Forecasts of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The forecasts have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model of heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.     

Land–Water Boundary Treatment for a Tsunami Model With Dimensional Splitting

The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model adapted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for tsunami forecasting operations is praised for its computational efficiency, associated with the use of splitting technique. It will be shown, however, that splitting the computations between \(x\) and \(y\) directions results in specific sensitivity to the treatment of land–water boundary. Slight modification to the reflective boundary condition in MOST caused an appreciable difference in the results. This is demonstrated with simulations of the Tohoku-2011 tsunami from the source earthquake to Monterey Bay, California, and in southeast Alaska, followed by comparison with tide gage records. In the first case, the better representation of later waves (reflected from the coasts) by the modified model in a Pacific-wide simulation resulted in twice as long match between simulated and observed tsunami time histories at Monterey gage. In the second case, the modified model was able to propagate the tsunami wave and approach gage records at locations within narrow channels (Juneau, Ketchikan), to where MOST had difficulty propagating the wave. The modification was extended to include inundation computation. The resulting inundation algorithm (Cliffs) has been tested with the complete set of NOAA-recommended benchmark problems focused on inundation. The solutions are compared to the MOST solutions obtained with the version of the MOST model benchmarked for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program in 2011. In two tests, Cliffs and MOST results are very close, and in another two tests, the results are somewhat different. Very different regimes of generation/disposal of water by Cliffs and MOST inundation algorithms, which supposedly affected the benchmarking results, have been discussed.     

Characterization of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes by Combining the GEV and GPD Descriptions of Extreme Value Theory

The present work is a continuation and improvement of the method suggested in Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 165:1–42, 2008) for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation is to combine the two main limit theorems of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that allow us to derive the distribution of T-maxima (maximum magnitude occurring in sequential time intervals of duration T) for arbitrary T. This distribution enables one to derive any desired statistical characteristic of the future T-maximum. We propose a method for the estimation of the unknown parameters involved in the two limit theorems corresponding to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We establish the direct relations between the parameters of these distributions, which permit to evaluate the distribution of the T-maxima for arbitrary T. The duality between the GEV and GPD provides a new way to check the consistency of the estimation of the tail characteristics of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for earthquake occurring over an arbitrary time interval. We develop several procedures and check points to decrease the scatter of the estimates and to verify their consistency. We test our full procedure on the global Harvard catalog (1977–2006) and on the Fennoscandia catalog (1900–2005). For the global catalog, we obtain the following estimates: \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 9.53 ± 0.52 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 9.21 ± 0.20. For Fennoscandia, we obtain \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 5.76 ± 0.165 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 5.44 ± 0.073. The estimates of all related parameters for the GEV and GPD, including the most important form parameter, are also provided. We demonstrate again the absence of robustness of the generally accepted parameter characterizing the tail of the magnitude-frequency law, the maximum possible magnitude M _max, and study the more stable parameter Q _T (q), defined as the q-quantile of the distribution of T-maxima on a future interval of duration T.     

Expressions for the Global Gravimetric Moho Modeling in Spectral Domain

We apply a newly developed numerical method to improve the Moho geometry by the implementation of gravity data. This method utilizes expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling derived in a frequency domain. Methods for a spectral analysis and synthesis of the gravity field and crust density structures are applied in the gravimetric forward modeling of the consolidated crust-stripped gravity disturbances, which have a maximum correlation with the (a priori) Moho model. These gravity disturbances are obtained from the Earth’s gravity disturbances after applying the topographic and stripping gravity corrections of major known anomalous crust density structures; in the absence of a global mantle model, mantle density heterogeneities are disregarded. The isostatic scheme applied is based on a complete compensation of the crust relative to the upper mantle density. The functional relation is established between the (unknown) Moho depths and the complete crust-stripped isostatic gravity disturbances, which according to the adopted isostatic scheme have (theoretically) a minimum correlation with the Moho geometry. The system of observation equations, which describes the relation between spherical functions of the isostatic gravity field and the Moho geometry, is defined by means of a linearized Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. The Moho depths are determined based on solving the gravimetric inverse problem. The regularization is applied to stabilize the ill-posed solution. This numerical procedure is utilized to determine the Moho depths globally. The gravimetric result is presented and compared with the seismic Moho model. Our gravimetric result has a relatively good agreement with the CRUST2.0 Moho model by means of the RMS of differences (of 3.5 km). However, the gravimetric solution has a systematic bias. We explain this bias between the gravimetric and seismic Moho models by the unmodelled mantle heterogeneities and uncertainties in the CRUST2.0 global crustal model.     

On the ability of Moho reflections to affect the ground motion in northeastern Italy: a case study of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

It has been observed that post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho discontinuity could play a relevant role on the ground motion due to medium to strong size earthquakes away from the source. Although some studies investigated the correlation between the Moho reflections amplitudes and the damage in the far field, little attention was given to the frequency content of these specific phases and their scaling with magnitude. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in northern Italy, recorded by velocimetric and accelerometric networks, is here exploited to investigate Moho reflections and multiples (SmSM). A single station method for group velocity-period estimation, based on the multiple filter technique, is applied to strong motion data to detect SmSM. Amplitude and frequency scaling with magnitude is defined for earthquakes from \(\hbox {Mw}=3.9\) to \(\hbox {Mw}=5.9\) . Finally, the ability of SmSM to affect the ground motion for a maximum credible earthquake within the Po plain is investigated by extrapolating observed engineering parameters. Data analysis shows that high amplitude SmSM can be recognized within the Po plain, and at the boundaries between the Po plain and the Alpine chain, at epicentral distances larger than 80 km, in the period range from 0.25 to 3 s and in the group velocity window from about 2.6 to 3.2 km/s. 5 % damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at different periods (0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s), and Housner intensities, are obtained from data characterized by large amplitude SmSM. A scaling relationship for both pseudo-spectral accelerations and Housner intensities is found for the earthquakes of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence. \(\hbox {I}_{\mathrm{MCS}}\) from VII to VIII is estimated, as a result of SmSM amplitude enhancement, at about 100 km for a maximum credible earthquake ( \(\hbox {Mw}=6.7\) ) in the Po plain, showing that moderate to high damage cloud be caused by these specific phases.     

The gravity field and crustal thickness of Venus

The gravity and topography of Venus obtained from observations of the Magellan mission, as well as the gravity and topography from our numerical mantle convection model, are discussed in this paper. We used the hypothesis that the geoid of degrees 2–40 is produced by sublithospheric mantle density anomalies that are associated with dynamical process within the mantle. We obtained the model dynamical admittance(the geoid topography ratio based on a convection model) by a numerical simulation of the Venusian mantle convection, and used it to correct the dynamical effect in the calculation of crustal thickness. After deducting the dynamical effect, the thickness of the Venusian crust is presented. The results show that the gravity and topography are strongly correlated with the Venusian mantle convection and the Venusian crust has a significant influence on the topography. The Venusian crustal thickness varies from 28 to 70 km. Ishtar Terra, and Ovda Regio and Thetis Regio in western Aphrodite Terra have the highest crustal thickness(larger than 50 km). The high topography of these areas is thought to be supported by crustal compensation and our results are consistent with the hypothesis that these areas are remnants of ancient continents. The crustal thickness in the Beta, Themis, Dione, Eistla, Bell, and Lada regiones is thin and shows less correlation with the topography, especially in the Atla and Imdr regiones in the eastern part of Aphrodite Terra. This is consistent with the hypothesis that these highlands are mainly supported by mantle plumes. Compared with the crustal thickness calculated with the dynamical effect, our results are more consistent with the crust evolution and internal dynamical process of Venus.     

Neutron activation analysis of the 1965 taal volcanic ash

Neutron activation analysis of the Taal volcanic ash revealed the presence of unusual amount of scandium in the volcanic ash as compared to the standard basalt BCR-1. The BCR-1 value for Fe/Sc is 2760 while that of Taal ash is about 2649. It is suggested that the eruption was probably characterized by the ejection of scandium-rich materials. Scandium may be used as supplementary evidence in evaluating an impending future Taal volcanic activity.     

Seismic risk and damage prediction: case of the buildings in Constantine city (Algeria)

Located at the North-Eastern part of Algeria (Tellian Atlas), Constantine has crucial administrative, economic, scientific and cultural importance. It has continuously experienced significant urban evolutions during the different periods of its history. The city is located in an active seismic region within Algeria and has been struck in the past by several moderate and strong earthquakes. The strongest earthquake recorded since the beginning of instrumental seismology took place on October 27, 1985 with a magnitude M \(_\mathrm{S}=\) 5.9. Constantine presents a high seismic risk, because of its dense housing and high population density (2,374 inhabitants/km \(^{2})\) . This requires a risk assessment in order to take preventive measures and reduce the losses in case of potential major earthquake. For this purpose, a scenario based approach is considered. The building damage assessment methodology adopted for the Algerian context is adapted from HAZUS approach. In the present case, the effective Algerian seismic code response spectrum (RPA 99/2003) is considered as a seismic hazard model. The prediction of the expected damages is performed for a set of almost 29,000 buildings.     

Rapakivi texture from the O’Leary Porphyry,Arizona (U.S.A.)

The rhyodactic O’Leary Porphyry which forms the Pleistocene (0.233±0.37 m.y.) volcanic domes of O’Leary Peak and Darton Dome in the San Francisco Volcanic Field (northern Arizona, U.S.A.) contains sanidine phenocrysts with oligoclase mantles (rapakivi texture). Rapakivi texture occurs worldwide in silicic rocks of many ages and has been attributed to various igneous and metamorphic processes. The O’Leary Porphyry contains both mantled and unmantled sanidine (both are Or_63–69 Ab_30–36An₁), oligoclase and quartz phenocrysts, labradorite (An₅₃Ab₄₅Or₂) and kaersutite xenocrysts and andesite xenoliths. The compositional range of oligoclase is the same (An_11–26Ab_70–80Or_r–10) for the rapakivi mantles, the oligoclase phenocrysts, and the oligoclase crystals poikilitic within sanidines. Most mantles are discontinuous. The sanidine appears to have been resorbed prior to mantling. Experimental melting studies on the O’Leary Prophyry show that, for a 15 wgt.% water system, plagioclase crystallized prior to sanidine and quartz crystallized last. The O’Leary Porphyry, although inhomogeneous, plots on a Q-Or-Ab-An diagram well within the plagioclase stability field. Poikilitic plagioclases within sanidines further support crystallization of plagioclase prior to sanidine in the O’Leary Porphyry. Exsolution of a ternary feldspar to form a plagioclase mantle is the most commonly accepted igneous theory of rapakivi texture formation but has been eliminated as the origin of the O’Leary Porphyry rapakivi. Petrologic models by Tuttle and Bowen and by Stewart are rejected for the O’Leary rapakivi because of inconsistencies with the O’Leary occurrences. Two theories are viable for the O’Leary rapakivi texture. First, is a decrease in water vapor pressure which would enlarge the plagioclase stability field possibility causing mantling of metastable sanidines. The second and preferred theory is that of an addition of sodium and calcium by basification (chemical assimilation without melting) of the xenoliths within the O’Leary Porphyry. This would move the bulk composition of the melt into the plagioclase field possibly resulting in crystallization of plagioclase on sanidine crystals. Diffusion of sodium and calcium from the xenoliths to sanidine would result in mantling only those crystals near to the xenoliths. Later, convection would result in distribution throughout the melt of rapakivi, unmantled sanidines, and xenolithic kaersutite as is seen in the porphyry. Basic xenoliths are extremely common in rapakivi-bearing rocks. Those within the O’Leary Porphyry are andesitic and show resorption, and in some areas of O’Leary Peak itself, have been drawn out into schlieren.     

Pumice eruptions of the lesser Antilles

Stratigraphic studies on the active and potentially active volcanoes of the Lesser Antilles have revealed two main types of andesitic pyroclastic deposit. One with dense clasts in a poorly vesicular ash represents nuée ardente eruptions of Pelean type and the other group of vesicular pumice and ash represent both Plinian airfall and ash-pumice flow eruptions. The pumiceous deposits can be divided into airfall lapilli, airfall ash, crystal-pumice surge, ashpumice flow and ash hurricane types. No pumice eruptions have been witnessed in the Lesser Antilles during the period of written history although the stratigraphy of archaeological sites shows they occurred in pre-Columbian times. Detailed stratigraphic studies of Mt. Pelée, Martinique, and the Quill, St. Eustatius, show that, throughout their history, pumice eruptions have alternated with nuée ardente eruptions with approximately equal frequency. The widespread occurrence of pumiceous deposits on many of the West Indian volcanoes and the frequent alternations in the stratigraphic sections suggest the high probability that they will be witnessed in the future. On Martinique, some on the late prehistoric pumiceous pyroclastic flow deposits (the ash hurricanes) have been traced 20 km from the central vent to the out-skirts of Fort de France, indicating that they are the major hazard in the Lesser Antilles. Measured stratigraphic sections show that the Pelean type nuée ardente deposits are separated from the pumiceous pyroclastic deposits by others of intermediate vesicularity and appearance. The presence of such deposits of intermediate vesicularity could provide a future warning of impending change in pyroclastic style. As no such deposits formed on Mt. Pelée this century the present «safer» episode of nuée ardente (Pelean type) activity is expected to continue.     

Explosive felsic volcanism on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands consist of seven basaltic shield volcanoes whose submerged portion is much more voluminous than the subaerial part of each island. Like so many other volcanic oceanic islands, the indicative deposits of explosive felsic volcanism are not a common feature on the Canary archipelago. Hitherto, they have only been documented from the central islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife, which are the largest volcanic complexes of the islands. On the other Canary Islands, the presence of felsic rocks is mostly restricted to intrusions and a few lava flows, generally within the succession in the oldest parts of individual islands. In this paper, we present a detailed stratigraphic, lithological and sedimentological study of a significant felsic pumice deposit on the island of El Hierro, referred here as the Malpaso Member, which represents the only explosive episode of felsic volcanism found on the Canary Islands (outside of Gran Canaria and Tenerife). The products of the eruption indicate a single eruptive event and cover an area of about 15 km². This work provides a detailed stratigraphic and chronological framework for El Hierro, and four subunits are identified within the member on the basis of lithological and granulometric characteristics. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of an explosive eruption in a setting where the activity is typified by effusive basaltic events. Given the style and the spatial distribution of the Malpaso eruption and its products, a future event with similar characteristics could have a serious impact on the population, infrastructure and economy of the island of El Hierro.     

Hydrothermal melting of some New Zealand greywackes and argillites

The temperatures at which melting begins of three New Zealand greywackes and two argillites were determined as a function of water pressure up to 3000 atmospheres. The purpose of these experiments was to provide data possibly relevant to the genesis of the North Island ignimbrites and for comparison with the experiments ofBowen andTuttle (1958) on the melting temperatures of granites and the ternary minimum system (NaAlSi₃O₈ — KAlSi₃O₈ — SiO₂ — H₂O). Powdered samples of the rocks were heated in unsealed silver tubes in cold seal bombs, the water pressure being measured on a Bourdon gauge and applied during heating. Temperature control was ± 5°C. Twelve days was the longest heating period, most being for 24 hours, which was sufficient for apparent reaction. At the end of an experiment, the pressure was released, and the sample quickly cooled by removal from the bomb. The samples were crushed and examined by X-ray diffraction and the petrographic microscope. The PT curve for the beginning of melting of the greywackes and argillites is very close toBowen andTuttle’s for granites and the ternary minimum to 1000 atmospheres water pressure. Above this pressure the greywackes melt at slightly higher temperatures than on the granite curve with the argillites a little higher still. These observations are similar to those reported for shales byWyllie andTuttle 1960, 1961, for greywackes byWinkler andvon Platen 1961, and pelitic sediments byWyart andSabatier, 1959. The amount of anatectic melt increases rapidly above the temperature of initial melting and is inversely related to the quartz present in the greywackes. The partially melted products were often notably vesicular. Cordierite, mullite, hypersthene, scapolite and mica were identified in the X-ray diffractograms as coexisting with the melt. These experiments are in agreement with published work in showing that the quartz and alkali feldspars of granites, shales and arkosic sediments can in the presence of water react and begin to melt at 20–25 kilometres depth in the earth assuming a geothermal gradient of 30°C/km. The melt is granitic or granodioritic in composition.     

The figure of the earth — Changes in concepts

The search for the Figure of the Earth is rooted in the age-old wonder about the world we live in. The ancient mythical notions have developed, under the tutelage of Greek systematic thought, into specific questions of the shape and size of the Earth. The history of these questions, now spanning more than two millenia, shows a continuous refinement in formulation, as each bona fide answer prompted refined measurements which, in turn, started a new round of problems. The change in concept of what one was looking for was, and still is, closely connected with the technical capability and its potential for further development. This change in concept is traced here from ancient times to the present throungh some of its milestones: Anaximander's partly invisible celestial sphere and Pythagoras' spherical Earth; Eratosthenes' exemplary combination of astronomy and land surveying for the dual purpose of determining the size of the spherical Earth and making a map of the habitable world; the identical dual purpose followed by the Académie Royale des Sciences in the 17th century, but on a more sophisticated technical level; the challenge to the spherical concept by Newton's gravitational theory and the absorption of that theory into a wider concept of the Figure of the Earth; the acknowledgment of the irregular geoid by Gauss, Bessel, and Helmert, and the changed significance of the ellipsoid; Heiskanen's and Vening Meinesz' ‘Basic Hypothesis of Geodesy’ concerning the hydrostatic equilibrium of the Earth, and O'Keefe's contradiction on the basis of satelite data; the dream of global surveys come true through satellite geodesy and the accompanying inclusion of the outer gravity field of the Earth into the concept of its Figure; and lastly, the present and projected capability of high precision measurement and the widening of the concept of the Figure of the Earth from 3-dimensional rigidity to 4-dimensional time-dependence.     

Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model

A global climate prediction system(PCCSM4) was developed based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), and an initialization scheme was designed by our group. Thirty-year(1981–2010) one-month-lead retrospective summer climate ensemble predictions were carried out and analyzed. The results showed that PCCSM4 can efficiently capture the main characteristics of JJA mean sea surface temperature(SST), sea level pressure(SLP), and precipitation. The prediction skill for SST is high, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is dominant. Temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted Ni?o3.4 index and observed Ni?o3.4 index over the 30 years reach 0.7, exceeding the 99% statistical significance level. The prediction of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa zonal wind and SLP shows greater skill than for precipitation. Overall, the predictability in PCCSM4 is much higher in the tropics than in global terms, or over East Asia. Furthermore, PCCSM4 can simulate the summer climate in typical ENSO years and the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon well. These preliminary results suggest that PCCSM4 can be applied to real-time prediction after further testing and improvement.     

The deposition of silica in hot springs

Natural hot spring waters ascending rapidly to the surface become supersaturated with respect to quartz because of rapid cooling, separation of steam and sluggish deposition of quartz and other crystallineSiO ₂ phases. Large amounts of silica are likely to be deposited in hot spring systems only after the solubility of amorphous silica has been exceeded. Cristobalite and chaleedony probably form in hot spring systems only by the crystallization of previously deposited silica gel rather than by direct deposition from solution. Experimental data indicate that the solubilit of quartz in water rises with increasing temperature along the vapor pressure curve to a maximum value of 725 ppm at 330°C. However, the maximum amount of silica likely, to occur in hot spring systems where quartz precipitates at depth is appreciably greater. Steam formation during adiabatic cooling of a water quickly brought to the surface from 330°C at depth might leave the silica in the remaining liquid concentrated to about 1150 to 1400 ppm. Under such conditions, amorphous silica might precipitate (probably as a colloidal suspension) after the water cooled below about 200°C to 250°C. Waters initially in equilibrium with quartz at a temperature less than 210°C probably will precipitate amorphous silica in channelways underground only when and where large quantities of steam separate from the waters as a result of sudden decreases in pressure or hydrostatic head. Above 150° to 200°C amorphous silica and volcanic glass can contribute very large quantities of silica to the solution. However, at these temperatures in natural systems they are eventually converted to crystalline phases. Thus, control of dissolved silica at depth is likely to be relatively short lived in respect to the ages of most hot spring systems. The dissolved-silica content of 90 hot spring waters from Yellowstone National Park was measured colorimetrically in the field immediately after collection. Comparison with laboratory studies on the solubility of amorphous silica indicates that many waters in «alkaline» springs are markedly undersaturated with silica with respect to amorphous silica at the temperatures of the pools. Thus, the dissolved silica content of these waters cannot be accounted for by equilibria with amorphous silica. Rather, silica appears to be controlled by the dissolution, deposition, or alteration of other silica-bearing phases at depth. Furthermore, many springs now have compositions essentially identical (with respect to all components) to those determined in 1888, indicating that either equilibrium or steady state conditions have prevailed at depth for a long time. Veins of fine-grained quartz were found in drill core from the Upper Basin, and it is reasonable to assume that quartz controlled the quantity of silica in solution in those places of deposition. Possibly the silica content of the surface waters might allow an estimate of the temperatures at which these waters were last in equilibrium with quartz at depth. Assuming adiabatic cooling along the vapor pressure curve and correcting for steam formation, quartz solubility data compared with natural water analyses suggests that underground temperatures approach 205°C in the Upper Geyser Basin of Yellowstone. In the Norris Geyser Basin, underground temperatures of 245°C are suggested.     

Ground deformations on Mt. Vesuvius from 1977 to 1981

The results of a ground deformation study (1) of Vesuvius are reported. The study is a part of the geophysical program for the surveillance of this extremely dangerous active volcano. The results obtained in the period 1977–1981 show no significant changes in the dynamic state of the volcano. Corresponding to the southern Aapennines Nov. 23, 1980 earthquake a modification of the zenithal distance between the rim and bottom of the Vesuvius crater was observed which was likely connected with fairly shallow effects.     

Variation trends in basaltic rocks of the canary islands

More than two hundred new analyses of basaltic rocks from the Canary Islands are presented. The available data show that the earlier successions have similar variation trends throughout the archipelago; these trends represent all the intermediate types between basic differentiates (oceanites, ankaramites) and more salic differentiates (trachy-basalts, hawaiites). In the more recent volcanic series, the study shows that there is a magmatic diversification with different variation trends in the Eastern than in the Central Canary Islands. In the latter the alkaline character becomes stronger in the successive periods of volcanic activity which have been established in each island. In the Eastern islands the basaltic evolution is, on the contrary, towards basaltic rocks with tholeiitic affinities.     

Modelling long-term water yield effects of forest management in a Norway spruce forest

Abstract

Intensive forest management is one of the main land cover changes over the last century in Central Europe, resulting in forest monoculture. It has been proposed that these monoculture stands impact hydrological processes, water yield, water quality and ecosystem services. At the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory, a forest catchment in the western Czech Republic, a distributed physics-based hydrologic model, Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM), was used to simulate long-term hydrological change under different forest management practices, and to evaluate the comparative scenarios of the hydrological consequences of changing land cover. Stand-age-adjusted LAI (leaf area index) curves were generated from an empirical relationship to represent changes in seasonal tree growth. By consideration of age-adjusted LAI, the spatially-distributed model was able to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response from snowmelt, recharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, soil moisture and streamflow, as well as spatial patterns of each state and flux. Simulation scenarios of forest management (historical management, unmanaged, clear cutting to cropland) were compared. One of the critical findings of the study indicates that selective (patch) forest cutting results in a modest increase in runoff (water yield) as compared to the simulated unmanaged (no cutting) scenario over a 29-year period at Lysina, suggesting the model is sensitive to selective cutting practices. A simulation scenario of cropland or complete forest cutting leads to extreme increases in annual water yield and peak flow. The model sensitivity to forest management practices examined here suggests the utility of models and scenario development to future management strategies for assessing sustainable water resources and ecosystem services.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis