Land changes in Slovakia: Past processes and future directions

The aim of this study is to bring a unique overview of past, current and plausible future land use development in Slovakia. The study assessed land change processes and their spatial determinants related to the most significant socio-political periods that have shaped the former socialist country over the past 30 years, namely, socialism (1980–1990), postsocialism (1990–2000), EU accession (2000–2006), EU membership (2006–2012). Using boosted regression trees, the impact of different biophysical, socioeconomic, policy and distance-based factors was evaluated on land transitions, categorised as urbanisation, agricultural intensification and extensification, afforestation, deforestation and forest disturbance (natural and management-induced). Results show significant shifts in the landscape management associated with the institutional changes, especially in the postsocialist period.Agricultural intensification, which dominated the socialist period, was in subsequent periods substituted by afforestation and agricultural extensification. High relative annual rates of forest disturbance have dominated land-use change over the past 30 years, while deforestation was a minor land-use change during the late socialist period. Urbanisation has played a significant role and changed considerably through the studied periods: high urbanisation rates under socialism, a massive decline in the postsocialism and EU accession periods and increasingly high urbanisation rates during the EU membership period.Taking into account national and international (EU related) demands, we assessed land use development for 2040 within five different future land use scenarios. These scenarios were characterised as either extensions of current development trends, or as developments along axes that target globalisation or regionalisation, and more or less intervention. Results show that afforestation is by far the land-change process that will have the greatest impact on future Slovakian landscapes, mostly in rural areas. Among changes in agriculture, all scenarios uniformly suggest that extensification will exceed intensification mostly at the cost of arable land. In addition, urban areas will expand at the expense of arable land, particularly in the accessible city hinterlands.     

The response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change in four areas of Europe: The importance of landscape pattern

The response of erosion and sediment export to past land-use change has been studied in four agricultural areas of Europe. Three of these areas were subject to land abandonment or de-intensification and one to intensification of land-use practices. Erosion and sediment yield were modeled using the WaTEM/SEDEM model, which combines the RUSLE equation with a sediment routing algorithm. Spatial relationships between the RUSLE C-factor (i.e. land-use) and other erosion and sediment export-determining factors (slope, soil erodibility and distance to rivers) were investigated, as these account for non-linearity in the response of erosion and sediment export to land-use change.Erosion and sediment export have decreased enormously in the de-intensified areas, but slightly increased in the intensively cultivated area. The spatial pattern of land-use change in relation to other erosion and sediment export-determining factors appears to have a large impact on the response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change. That the drivers of abandonment of arable land and erosion coincide indicates that de-intensification leads to a more favourable landscape pattern with respect to reduction of erosion and sediment export. This mechanism applies not only within the study areas, but also among the European study areas where the process of intensification of some areas and de-intensification of others might result in an overall decrease of erosion and sediment yield through time.     

Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors

This article develops a spatial analysis applied to examine the main driving forces of land-cover and land-use (LCLU) change in a Mediterranean region. Three different tools have been used in order to differentiate LCLU changes, driving forces and landscape dynamics. LCLU changes have been quantified with remote sensing techniques, driving forces have been analysed with multiple logistic regressions combining biophysical and human variables, whereas landscape dynamics have been quantified using different metrics. Results show the intensification of subsidised herbaceous crops on the coastal agricultural plain, the abandonment of olive trees and vineyards in the transitional area and forest restoration in the mountainous subregion.     

Effects of postsocialist reforms on land cover and land use in South-Eastern Albania

This paper examines effects of postsocialist reforms on land cover and land use through a case study from South-eastern Albania. The paper uses satellite data to measure changes in land cover between 1988 and 2003, draws on a village survey to assess changes in local land-use practices, and examines shifts in the determinants of land cover through seemingly unrelated regressions at the village level. The results show a high incidence of cropland abandonment especially in lower-lying areas closer to markets. Socio-economic factors have emerged as new determinants of spatial variation, suggesting a growing influence of market principles on land use.     

A spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories

Earth observation images are a powerful source of data about changes in our planet. Given the magnitude of global environmental changes taking place, it is important that Earth Science researchers have access to spatiotemporal reasoning tools. One area of particular interest is land-use change. Using data obtained from images, researchers would like to express abstractions such as ‘land abandonment’, ‘forest regrowth’, and ‘agricultural intensification’. These abstractions are specific types of land-use trajectories, defined as multi-year paths from one land cover into another. Given this need, this paper introduces a spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories. Using Allen’s interval logic as a basis, we introduce new predicates that express cases of recurrence, conversion and evolution in land-use change. The proposed predicates are sufficient and necessary to express different kinds of land-use trajectories. Users can build expressions that describe how humans modify Earth’s terrestrial surface. In this way, scientists can better understand the environmental and economic effects of land-use change.     

Landscape persistence and stakeholder perspectives: The case of Romania's Carpathians

The traditional use of land for food, fuel and wood created cultural landscapes, which are threatened across Europe. The factors which contributed to their endangerment need to be identified to achieve effective preservation of such landscapes. The aim of our study was to identify landscapes with historical persistence in a GIS-based comparative analysis of historical and contemporary maps and the most prominent causes of the past landscape changes, based on stakeholders' perspective. We considered a case study in Romania's Carpathians. Three major land cover types were extracted from maps dating from 1912, 1980 and 2009: built-up, pastures and forests. The historical persistence of all land cover types was poor (<20%) and profound changes were quantitatively confirmed. Large, compact patches of unchanged forests were located in the neighbourhood of a national park. The persistent pastures were situated close to human settlements, and their preservation can be related to local traditional agro-silvo-pastoral management. Although the built-up area has increased over time, the corresponding surfaces are small and consist of scattered patches located around historical monuments. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to investigate stakeholders' perspective. Using cluster analysis five prominent causes of past landscape changes are identified: 'increasing tourism', 'land tenure and social changes', 'land-use intensification', 'post-communist transition', and 'foreign investments'. We join the results of the GIS analysis with those from stakeholders' perspective to gain more insights into the landscape changes. This research offers important information that could be used for the further planning of these valuable cultural landscapes in order to avoid potential conflicts and degradation.     

Competing Place Meanings in Complex Landscapes: A Social–Ecological Approach to Unpacking Community Conservation Outcomes on the Wild Coast,South Africa

Despite a general awareness of the social–ecological complexities within which conservation interventions are embedded, approaches to understanding a diversity of local perspectives of heterogeneous landscapes and how they matter for the outcomes of these interventions are seldom demonstrated. We apply a social–ecological approach to exploring the multiple place meanings related to key landscape elements around a proposed community conservation intervention on the Wild Coast, South Africa, by identifying and analyzing three narratives about this impending change. These narratives mobilize competing meanings of the landscape to argue for or against the conservation project. By linking place meanings to locally defined landscape units (ecotopes), we engage multiple interpretations of the heterogeneous and changing landscape to gain a holistic and more inclusive picture of social–ecological landscape processes such as increasing woodlands and field abandonment. The obstruction of this particular intervention indicates the importance of engaging with multiple cultural values of nature.     

Future landscapes of Switzerland: Risk areas for urbanisation and land abandonment

In Switzerland, the decreasing significance of agriculture has led to prominent processes of land abandonment in mountainous areas where the maintenance of open land relies on human intervention. At the same time, urbanisation in Switzerland is increasing at a rapid rate at the expense of other land use types, particularly open land agriculture. In spite of these observed trends, the extent and location of anticipated land-use changes for the coming 20 years remain unknown, as does the impact on landscape services. This research defines 5 scenarios of future land-use for Switzerland along axes of Globalisation to Regionalisation and Market-driven developments to high policy intervention. Using the Dyna-CLUE land use modelling framework we incorporate socio-economic and bio-geographical variables to model scenarios of land change for 2035. By identifying locations for key land use transitions which occur across several scenarios, we find that unless large scale policy interventions are made, large areas of the Swiss Plateau and Alpine valley bottoms face strong urbanisation and much of the mountainous pasture agriculture continues to face risk of abandonment.     

局地土地利用变化现实情景研究

局地土地利用变化表现为时序短、空间倾向性强且多为人类强制干扰, 其变化过程与结果 是区域尺度响应与反馈国家尺度、全球尺度最有效的途径。城市化、农业结构调整和土地整理是 目前我国局地土地利用变化的几种主要利用方式。城市化是一个不可逆过程, 农村景观转为城市 景观, 改变了诸如地表反照率、粗糙度等下垫面特征, 局地生境与物种的数量与种类发生改变, 逐 步形成以人类为主的均质化景观格局; 农户微观土地利用选择行为是局地农业产业结构调整的 原动力, 不同类型农户在投资、生产与经营等经济活动的差异将导致局地土壤结构、水分、养分等 土壤条件及环境改变; 土地整理是一个复杂的系统工程, 在一定程度上改变了局地土壤性状与土 壤生物, 更甚的是改变了局地斑块- 廊道- 基质模式的景观格局。因此, 为进一步加深局地土地利 用变化情景的理解, 厘定“人- 地协调系统”的理论框架, 进行局地土地利用变化的情景模拟和生 态环境效应研究将是未来局地土地利用变化的研究方向。     

Crops,trees, and birds: Biodiversity change under agricultural intensification in Uganda's farmed landscapes

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2): 115–130, 2006

This paper examines the relationship between the intensity of agricultural land use and the abundance and richness of trees and birds in a humid tropical developing region where natural vegetation is being rapidly converted into farmland under market and population pressures. We analysed survey data on land use, birds and woody plants collected in 14 study sites situated within smallholder cropland and commercial plantations in southern Uganda. Commercial plantations had very few trees and only 10% of the original bird species. Land use intensification in smallholder systems also showed losses in bird abundance and species richness, but not nearly as much as in plantations. In both systems the impact of intensification was much bigger on the specialised and threatened birds compared to the less specialised species. This argues strongly for ‘species-sensitive’ conservation policies combining protected areas with land use regulation in areas undergoing intensification. We also found a much higher loss in bird biodiversity during the first phases of land use intensification (when larger tracts of forest are cleared) than in later phases characterised by clearing of smaller patches of vegetation and improved management of farm trees. This suggests high pay-offs to geographical targeting of conservation efforts in farmed landscapes.     

湿地景观格局变化研究进展

湿地是自然界最富生物多样性的生态景观,具有重要的生态功能。湿地景观格局是各种生态过程综合作用的结果,具有高度的景观异质性,对景观的功能和过程有着显著的影响。湿地生态系统是世界上受威胁最为严重的生态系统之一,在自然因素和人类活动的影响下发生了大面积的转化或丧失。本文从湿地景观格局研究方法、面积变化、景观类型转化、驱动力以及动态模型、湿地景观格局指数以及湿地景观格局与气候变化之间的关系等方面综述了湿地景观格局变化的研究进展,指出湿地景观格局变化及其生态效应和高原湿地景观格局变化与气候变化之间的关系是未来研究的重点领域。     

The interpretation of culture in nature: Landscape transformation and vegetation change during two centuries at Hystad,SW Norway

In Norway, on-site biological surveys precede the designation of nature reserves. Although many nature conservation areas have been affected by past human use (e.g. cattle grazing, timber harvesting), a typical biological survey may fail to portray the extent of human influence on biodiversity and vegetation dynamics. In 1984, Hystad forest (western Norway) was made a nature reserve after botanists interpreted the ecosystem 'close to untouched'. It was thought best to leave the forest alone, so no management plan was developed. It was later realized that the vegetation was changing, but the reason was not obvious. I gathered and analyzed further biological data plus information on land-use history from varied sources (e.g. cadastral maps, archive material and oral histories). The area has undergone a series of transformations since the 17th century. The present forest is no more than 100 years old, and extensive parts are much younger. The initial survey underestimated the extent of cultural impact and failed to predict vegetation change subsequent to reserve establishment, whereas a historical-geographical approach reveals that the vegetation is in a state of transition, driven primarily by a change from active farming to farm abandonment. Planning for conservation must recognize past as well as present human use of the landscape to anticipate consequent land cover responses.     

Linked to Landscape: Assessing Urbanization in Germany through Landscape and Economic Factors

The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation.     

Assessing land-use and -cover changes in relation to geographic factors and urban planning in the metropolitan area of Concepción (Chile). Implications for biodiversity conservation

The conservation of biodiversity in Latin American metropolitan areas is threatened by the intense land-use and -cover change. Assessing the overall biodiversity changes in entire regions faces with the traditional lack of consistent biodiversity data. This work aims at contributing to this assessment through a set of major pressures to biodiversity defined from land-use and -cover changes, and evaluating their extent, distribution and correlations with geographical variables. The study was performed in the framework of the Metropolitan Urban Plan of Concepción (MUPC, Chile). Land-use and -cover maps were obtained through image classification for the years 2000 and 2010, before and after the MUPC approval, and combined in a land-use and -cover change (LUCC) map. A set of pressures to biodiversity (natural and artificial forestation, deforestation, agricultural abandonment and expansion, and urbanization) was obtained from reclassifying the LUCC map. The correlations of these pressures with a set of geographical variables were assessed using canonical ordination methods. Finally, a preliminary forecast analysis of the effects of the MUPC was performed by combining the land-use and -cover map of 2010 with the urban-extension areas of the plan.Results showed that, in only 10 years, 57% of the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA) was affected by land-use and -cover changes, and 48% was affected by the pressures to biodiversity. Artificial forestation and deforestation were the dominant pressures, followed by agricultural abandonment and urbanization. The geographical distribution of pressures during the 2000–2010 period also contributed to affect the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable management of the CMA. Indeed, natural forestation occurred close to urbanization, thus threatening the ecological integrity of native forests, while artificial forestation, deforestation and agricultural abandonment took place in steeply areas thus increasing landslide risk. Despite urbanization was not the most relevant pressure in the short studied period, urban development planned in the MUPC would determine an overall increase of 60% in the built-up area of the CMA, mostly affecting brushwood and forest plantations but also native forest and wetlands. Implications of these results for the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the sustainable management of Latin American metropolis are finally discussed.     

基于景观孤岛化分析的传统地域文化景观保护模式——以江苏苏州市甪直镇为例

在城镇化、现代化和商业化快速发展的今天,传统文化景观的破碎化已成为传统地域文化景观的重要空间特征和现象,破碎化直接催生了传统文化景观空间的孤岛化现象,直接影响着传统地域文化景观的整体性,成为传统文化景观整体性保护的重要障碍。本文以苏州市甪直镇为例,在分析区域特征及对当地居民进行问卷调查的基础上,通过构造孤岛化评价指数,评价甪直古镇传统文化景观的格局的综合特征和景观孤岛化现象、特征及形成过程。在传统文化景观孤岛化评价的基础上,通过确定保护圈层、构建文化景观遗产廊道和景观生态网络格局,实现传统文化景观空间的拓展、连接和传统文化景观与缓冲空间的有机复合,成为传统地域文化景观区域性整体保护的空间模式。     

榆林市农业景观格局变化研究

根据1986年和2000年两期TM影像资料和其他辅助资料, 运用人机交互解译方法以及地理信息系统的空间分析和数理统计功能, 分析了榆林市农业景观格局变化, 包括土地利用数量变化、变化速度和区域差异等特征, 以及各景观类型之间的转化情况, 并对景观格局变化进行了定量分析。结果表明: 14a间, 榆林市未利用地减少1305.56km², 其中主要是沙地减少; 耕地、林地、草地分别增加567.11km²、99.6km²和616.79km²; 未利用地和建设用地的变化率最大, 分别为-22.11%和18.18%; 土地利用变化存在明显的区域差异; 各类型间的转化突出表现为未利用地向草地转化, 草地向林地和耕地转化。榆林市近十几年景观类型发生了明显转换, 土地整治取得显著成绩。     

中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

基于“理性小农”、超边际经济学等理论,建立了农户耕地集约利用解释的理论框架。构建了集约利用度指数 (CII) 和驱动力模型,分析了1996-2008年中国省域的耕地集约利用程度及其影响因素。研究结果表明：我国耕地利用集约度总体大幅度提高,但地域差异明显,初步形成了第一阶梯较高集约度、第二三阶梯较低集约度的空间格局;耕地集约利用的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用,其次是资本投入和劳动力;耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率,与耕地集约度呈正相关,而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。基于研究结论的政策引申：加强政策引导,科学合理使用非可再生能源等省工性劳动;切实改善农业生产条件,适度规模经营,提升劳动生产率和耕地综合生产力;提高耕地经营性经济补贴标准,激励农户稳定从事农业生产的积极性。     

Improving the factual knowledge of landscapes: Following up the European Landscape Convention with a comparative historical analysis of forces of landscape change in the Sjodalen and St⊘lsheimen mountain areas,Norway

A focus of implementing the European Landscape Convention (ELC) in Norway is on improving the factual knowledge of landscapes, which implies analysing the forces transforming them. The article aims to identify important forces of change and to elucidate its complexity by a comparative historical study of land cover and land use in two mountain areas in Western and Eastern Norway. The land covers and uses in focus are transport infrastructure, seasonal farming, vegetation, tourism and outdoor recreation, and nature and landscape protection. Based on an understanding of forces as something being exerted, a framework including pressure, attraction, friction, repulsion, and working force is developed. A comprehensive literature analysis shows how differences in intensity and extent of land use and development of land cover result from a complex interaction of common extrinsic forces with locally different intrinsic forces. To control landscape change and to maintain diversity among landscapes as a Europe-wide resource, the national implementation of the ELC will require a strong focus on the local level. Moreover, understanding the ELC as an origin of forces is recommended, because it allows more appropriate individual responses to landscape change.     

An interdisciplinary approach to depict landscape change drivers: A case study of the Ticuiz agrarian community in Michoacan, Mexico

Landscape changes are driven by a combination of physical, ecological and socio-cultural factors. Hence, a large amount of information is necessary to monitor these changes and to develop effective strategies for management and conservation. For this, novel strategies for combining social and environmental data need to be developed. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the value of an innovative interdisciplinary approach to help in explaining landscape change. We integrated three main sources of information: biophysical landscape attributes, land-use/cover change analysis and social perceptions of land-use change, institutional and policy factors and environmental services. Multivariate statistical analysis was used to develop a weight for each variable described or quantified. Finally we identified proximate causes and underlying driving forces of land transformation in the study area. The study was undertaken in a typical community in Mexico.     

土地利用集约化研究的回顾与未来工作重点

土地利用集约化是粮食安全、经济发展与生态保护等多重压力作用下人类土地利用的必然选择。积极推进土地利用集约化进程,使其向可持续集约化方向发展,对于中国这样人多地少的国家而言,具有尤为重要的意义。土地利用集约化研究兴起于20世纪60年代,但源流更远的农业生产潜力研究、农业生产要素配置研究等与土地集约利用有关的研究成果,同样加深了人们对土地利用集约化规律的认识。由于这些工作分散于多个学科领域,相关成果并未得到很好梳理。为了弥补这一不足,本文重点围绕基本特征与测度指标、极值问题与潜力研究、驱动因素与限制因素、环境影响与可持续集约化等4个方面,简要回顾了至今为止土地利用集约化方面的主要研究成果,并概要介绍了监测和制图、路径选择、政策选择、城镇用地“集约化”等有待进一步探讨的主要问题。